After your last two predictions perhaps you'll be right this time.
UFC 165 |OT| ABBA a little faith in Gustafsson
- Thread starter Lambda Pie
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Too late, his negativity was sucking the fun out of this thread so I put him on ignore.
Over/Under 400k PPV buys?
For reference
UFC 128 Shogun vs Jones - 490k
UFC 135 Jones vs Rampage - 520k
UFC 140 Jones vs Machida - 485k
UFC 145 Jones vs Evans - 700k
UFC 151 Jones vs Henderson - 0
UFC 152 Jones vs Belfort - 450k
UFC 159 Jones vs Sonnen - 550k
I'll take the under, seems like this is the least hyped title fight for Jones yet
For reference
UFC 128 Shogun vs Jones - 490k
UFC 135 Jones vs Rampage - 520k
UFC 140 Jones vs Machida - 485k
UFC 145 Jones vs Evans - 700k
UFC 151 Jones vs Henderson - 0
UFC 152 Jones vs Belfort - 450k
UFC 159 Jones vs Sonnen - 550k
I'll take the under, seems like this is the least hyped title fight for Jones yet
Lambda Pie
Banned
sub 500k for sure.
Bones got no charisma. the most personality he had was when he stood next to Rampage.
Bones got no charisma. the most personality he had was when he stood next to Rampage.
Ninja Scooter
Member
You can't expect people to pay $50 for Bones squash matches. The word is out: He fucks everyone up. It doesn't help that Dana and Joe Silver give him terrible undercards.
Speaking of awful pay-per-view cards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_151
Jon needs to repackage his church boy gimmick and embrace the Money Jones era if he ever wants to break a million buys.
Maklershed
Member
As Chamber points out, you're forgetting those PPV cards that are like Brazil TUF finale's disguised as PPVs.
dream
Member
I predict 275k.
Lambda Pie
Banned
that's Jesse Ronson, the "faceless" guy facing Prazeres in the prelims.
The over/under is difficult to predict at 400k. I'm guessing between 350k - 450k buys, and for the sake of team positive I'll got with over - but not by much.
This has got to be the least hyped fight for Jon Jones since he fought Matyushenko. Even his fight with Ryan Bader was interesting if for nothing else both fighters were essentially undefeated at that point.
Host Samurai
Member
This card is awful. Not even the main event is interesting.
Rampage vs Tito looks like UFC 100 compared to this
Rampage vs Tito looks like UFC 100 compared to this
I barely hear anything from MMA-GAF about this card, let alone the casual audience. When something does come up it's speculation about PPV buys or noting how awful the card looks, much like when gaming side occasionally spends more time talking about game sales more than the actual game.
TrumanBurbank
Member
Jones is the best P4P in the world. Why don't they build a card around him? Anyone explain?
Because there aren't any credible opponents for him. Gustaffson is going to get absolutely annihilated and doesn't have the personality of someone like Chael to help sell the card.
They need to start setting up super fights for Jones against heavyweights or something.
Gustaffson does have a better chance than other fighters against Jones for whatever that's worth. It's just that in hindsight no one else has really stood much of a chance to begin with.
I'll give Gustaffson a chance, but it will be with a leap of faith. He has the height and the reach, but I'm not sold on his skill just yet. But maybe facing a fighter who can actually hit Jones will be all it takes. I still don't think he's ever been rocked by a punch, and aside from Belfort's submission attempted he's never really been in trouble at all.
If Jones wins all he'll have to do is check Gegard Mousasi, Glover Teixeira and Phil Davis off his checklist and he will be left without a legit contender save for rematches - probably Vitor Belfort or Rashad Evans.
I'll give Gustaffson a chance, but it will be with a leap of faith. He has the height and the reach, but I'm not sold on his skill just yet. But maybe facing a fighter who can actually hit Jones will be all it takes. I still don't think he's ever been rocked by a punch, and aside from Belfort's submission attempted he's never really been in trouble at all.
If Jones wins all he'll have to do is check Gegard Mousasi, Glover Teixeira and Phil Davis off his checklist and he will be left without a legit contender save for rematches - probably Vitor Belfort or Rashad Evans.
Host Samurai
Member
Actually, Jones is tailor made to destroy Evans. I have zero interest in a rematch. Evans has no tools to actually finish Jones like many of his other opponents like Machida, Belfort, Shogun & Rampage. He's also small, not durable and doesn't have the stand up nor submission skills to ever pose a threat to Jones. LOL @ the thought of Evans being able to win via wrestling vs Jones, who is twice his size. I'd give Little Nog a better chance at beating Jones than Evans
Jest Chillin
Member
Gus has the build to be competitive but I don't think he has the experience yet to overcome Jones athleticism. That being said, stranger things have happened in MMA.
Host Samurai
Member
Gus really should have fought Evans before Jones to see how he does vs a wrestler.
Jest Chillin
Member
Yup. His only fights against wrestlers were against Davis (who he lost to) and Hamill. Neither of which have wrestling anywhere near the level of wrestling we've seen from Evans or Jones.
But even fighting Evans wouldn't necessarily have given him wrestling experience as ever since the Lidell KO, Evans abandons his wrestling way too quickly and way too often.
But even fighting Evans wouldn't necessarily have given him wrestling experience as ever since the Lidell KO, Evans abandons his wrestling way too quickly and way too often.
the_log_ride
Member
What else has Schaub got to lose, since he no longer has his soul?
Host Samurai
Member
Not really as much as everyone believes. He wrestled Davis and Rampage down to a decision, he couldn't take down Jones, Nog has clearly worked on his TDD and just recently UD Hendo on the cage, besides his wrestling probably canceled out Hendos. I'd say Evans only abandoned his wrestling in the Forest & Machida fights
Jest Chillin
Member
Maybe I just have a crap memory but most of those fights didn't feel like he was trying to wrestle as much as wall stall ala Randy. I'm no Grappling expert so maybe there was more going on there that I didn't really recognize but when compared to guys like GSP, Shields, etc.. and when looking back to his Pre-Chuck fights he seemed to go for more pure takedowns rather than the fence pressure to single or double leg stuff.
jakershaker
Member
There's little reason to believe that Evans would win a rematch, but I don't doubt that he can rack up the wins to earn it anyways.
I do believe it would be a good opportunity for Jones to actually finish him this time - it was one of his rare bouts that didn't end in a finish and it was boring as hell.
its a shit card no doubt, but there are a few fights i'm looking forward to:
jones/gus - rooting for gus but expect an impressive preference by jones.
barao/wineland - has the potential for a good scrap
thompson and makdessi are always fun to watch fight.
and there are a couple of fights that are just screaming huge KO wins (philipou/mitrione)
jones/gus - rooting for gus but expect an impressive preference by jones.
barao/wineland - has the potential for a good scrap
thompson and makdessi are always fun to watch fight.
and there are a couple of fights that are just screaming huge KO wins (philipou/mitrione)
Can you honestly see that happening? Jones doesn't seem like he is in a rush to do that; and would probably prefer to vacate LHW undefeated (well, once) and move up.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Can Shad not make 185? I'm surprised he's not itching for a shot at Weidman?
A
A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
Well he was jonesing (lol) for a shot at Silva but getting decisioned by Nog the smaller kind of killed that. So he could make the weight but he probably thinks the 185 title has less prestige or something. He's probably never beating Jones though so unless he's waiting for Jon to move to HW he should try it. Evans/Machida rematch at MW, winner get title shot, loser goes on the Ace Franklin farewell tour.
Just like betting on Henderson over Pettis?
slightconfuse
Banned
considering both spider and bendo lost im War Gus
General Choomin
Banned
Gustaffson has the same chance as mighty mouse to beat JJ. The only person I think that can really put up a challenge is Cormier.
Jones' elbow range is Cormier's punching range...he'll get picked apart all night. Took him 9 minutes to finish "Dion Staring", he's not going to do shit to Jones on the ground besides maybe win a round. Nobody's a threat besides JDS and Cain.
BigJonsson
Member
They are doing the weigh-ins outdoors today......it might rain......
4th event in Toronto, 3 have been headlined by Jon Jones, 3 have had 2 title fights
4th event in Toronto, 3 have been headlined by Jon Jones, 3 have had 2 title fights
polyh3dron
Banned
Yup Renan Barao defending his "Interim" Bantamweight title vs Eddie Wineland. Should be a good scrap. Everything before that fight is shit though.
Francis Carmont is gonna do his usual stink up the joint routine. Why the UFC put him on a PPV main card after his embarrassing gaming of the system vs. Larkin is beyond me. He's a perfect example of everything that sucks about modern day MMA.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You think I'm wrong?
polyh3dron
Banned
I called both Weidman and Pettis to win their fights, I still don't see how Gus wins this though. As long as JBJ goes in close to 100% and no weird fluke shit happens, JBJ is a lock. It's gonna be takedown, hellbows, submission.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
First it was Machida. Then Rashad. Then Machida again. Then Hendo. Then Machida yet again. Then Vito-OHMYGODARMBAR. Then Machida again... Now DC?
The only chance the current top ten LHWs outside of Jones have in winning the belt is just waiting out the time before Jones gets bored and heads up to HW full time. There are currently only two potential contenders for him to face after Gus: Glover and Phil Davis. If DC finally makes the decision to cut to 205 then I figure he'd be given a title shot after one LHW fight (against someone like Rashad or Hendo.)
Can't imagine the meltdown in here if Gus were to pull off the W. I definitely see it as less of an upset than if Wineland beats Barao.
Also wtf is up with them keeping Cruz as the champ? Theres absolutely no benefit seeing as he wasn't some huge draw anyway.
I actually see Jones getting pretty banged up standing before going for the trip into the patented hellbow TKO.
Also wtf is up with them keeping Cruz as the champ? Theres absolutely no benefit seeing as he wasn't some huge draw anyway.
I actually see Jones getting pretty banged up standing before going for the trip into the patented hellbow TKO.
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