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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
We have crossover!

Approval / Disapproval ratings of...

T. May: 48 / 31 (+17)
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45 (-18)
T. Farron: 16 / 37 (-21)
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46 (-36)

Jezza back in front of Timbo.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
CyclopsRock said:
I think the Tory manifestos lack of magic dust is an illustration of what happens when you know you actually have to keep your promises.
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In a sense that a lot of them are non-promises sure. (things they can implement but won't actually have any bite besides the headlines)

There is a lot of completely unrealistic positions there too though. Like the Internet regulations that will cause huge blowback from tech companies to the extent I don't think they'll actually happen.
E: I hope they don't happen I will say. Unless the Tories want to plunge the UK digital economy to the 70s.
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
Survation:

CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-1)

Times leading tomorrow with the Yougov poll and confirmation that the Tory manifesto has "bombed".

Exciting times.

D4Danger said:
No
Click to expand...

There is hope now. If this is a sign that Corbyn *has* de-toxified his brand and the Tories have rolled back, then this makes the election far more interesting.
 
PJV3

PJV3

Member
I'm still clinging to the possibility the result ends up with only a slightly bigger Tory majority and May looking like a plonker for calling the election.
 
L

Lagamorph

Member
tumblr_oq9qyagZe51u5f06vo1_1280.jpg


Just to point out, The Mail on Sunday is very very different to the regular Daily Mail, they're more or less opposite. The Mail on Sunday supported a remain vote in the EU referendum.
 
J

JonathanEx

Member
Turns out like the last few votes, the journalistic assumptions shaping the campaign aren't going to plan. So much for easy Tory win, everyone loves May, Labour's manifesto will cause riots on the streets, Tory one will win our hearts.


Not to say the Tories won't win big still - but it changes the script for a bit. Mildly interesting!
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
Huw_Dawson said:
There is hope now. If this is a sign that Corbyn *has* de-toxified his brand and the Tories have rolled back, then this makes the election far more interesting.
Click to expand...

While Corbyn, Thornbery, Abbott runs Labour, they remain toxic.

I think what we're seeing is acceptance that Labour's manifesto appeals to a whole lot more than the Conservatives does.

Lynton Crosby has got his work cut out for him. If the Tories campaign for the Election to strengthen their hand for Brexit then only gaining a few seats kinds of undermines it.
 
K

killer_clank

Member
JonathanEx said:
Turns out like the last few votes, the journalistic assumptions shaping the campaign aren't going to plan. So much for easy Tory win, everyone loves May, Labour's manifesto will cause riots on the streets, Tory one will win our hearts.


Not to say the Tories won't win big still - but it changes the script for a bit. Mildly interesting!
Click to expand...

Still think the tories knew this was likely and that it wouldn't be all plain sailing but May judged it would be worth it to jettison the cameron era unimplementable pledges and get a slightly bigger majority.

I think in the end the campaign kind of evens out and we get a result reminiscent of the polls when the campaign began - comfortable tory win but some way off the silly polling figures of 50% nearer the start of the campaign.
 
E

Empty

Member
think the polls are sadly self-correcting. labour will do well as it's considered a safe vote to help punish the government up until they look like they could even remotely win in which case corbyn's unpopularity will over-ride everything else.

Lagamorph said:
http://68.media.tumblr.com/795b617260fa4e6eca80d7936310240b/tumblr_oq9qyagZe51u5f06vo1_1280.jpg[img]

Just to point out, The Mail on Sunday is very very different to the regular Daily Mail, they're more or less opposite. The Mail on Sunday supported a remain vote in the EU referendum.[/QUOTE]

this is a bigger deal than the poll imo

the dementia tax is one of those policies that is absolutely toxic if properly exposed in the media imo. everyone who likes the more progressive inheritance tax aspects of it probably already solidly votes labour, whereas the possibility of the state taking away your children's inheritance because of bad luck is anathema to everything tory voters stand for.
Click to expand...
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
This is like the Sonic/Arsenal cycle.

Hope gets built up in the final 1/3rd, pending a massive collapse on release/with the finish in sight.
 
J

JonathanEx

Member
killer_clank said:
Still think the tories knew this was likely and that it wouldn't be all plain sailing but May judged it would be worth it to jettison the cameron era unimplementable pledges and get a slightly bigger majority.

I think in the end the campaign kind of evens out and we get a result reminiscent of the polls when the campaign began - comfortable tory win but some way off the silly polling figures of 50% nearer the start of the campaign.
Click to expand...

True, they would have expected it to tighten a bit, but I don't know if they expected the dementia backlash, which shifts the media narrative which is more what I'm thinking of.

But yeah, with you on the result for now.
 
M

mo60

Member
killer_clank said:
Still think the tories knew this was likely and that it wouldn't be all plain sailing but May judged it would be worth it to jettison the cameron era unimplementable pledges and get a slightly bigger majority.

I think in the end the campaign kind of evens out and we get a result reminiscent of the polls when the campaign began - comfortable tory win but some way off the silly polling figures of 50% nearer the start of the campaign.
Click to expand...

But the difference this time is labour wasn't really polling in the low to mid 30's at the start of the campaign.
 
M

mo60

Member
If the conservatives don't make huge gains in seat count after this election I wonder what will happen to May? Like if the conservatives only gain 10 to 20 seats will people within the tories be disappointed with her.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
mo60 said:
If the conservatives don't make huge gains in seat count after this election I wonder what will happen to May? Like if the conservatives only gain 10 to 20 seats will people within the tories be disappointed with them.
Click to expand...

I think that May will be ok, but she really needs more than 350 seats - otherwise she's going to have to pander internally to disruptive Tory backbenchers and Pro EU MPs. The manifesto might not be special, but I think it's designed to give the Tories less headaches later on in the next Parliament (in combination to the negotiations with the EU).

It wont be ideal, but she will at least put an end to the talk of her not having a mandate and not being elected.
 
N

naweednrahman

Member
Cmoooonnnnnn labour!!!

Growing up and until 22ish I was labour. As I became a banker and earned more money conservatives seemed like they would help me prosper more (selfish I know but meh).

However, the May's conservative government just seem more bat shit crazy than Corbyn is made out to be.

I quite like how Corbyn sticks to his guns and find his personality more appealing. I also think he is one that won't take shit from the large corporations but still knows the limit.
 
C

CTLance

Member
I still maintain May wants to lose and hand over the Brexit hot potato to Labour or another Tory - especially after that manifesto.

But what do I know. The Tories not gaining, or at least only absorbing only the UKIP seats, would certainly be funny*. Can Labour and the Tories (and all their respective internal factions) reach an equilibrium? I mean, realistically. May would probably develop a nervous tic over that.

*) Looking in from the outside always lessens the impact of things.
 
M

Mr. Sam

Member
I managed to get one Ukipper voter to vote Labour while canvassing today so please lay the credit for the inevitable Labour landslide at my door. The sunburn will be worth it.

Edit: It was surprisingly easy to hit the Tories on the "death tax," triple lock, winter fuel allowance thing on the doorstep.
 
D

Dirtyshubb

Member
The thing I have never understood about the hate towards Corbyn is that if you listen to the news or haters regarding his ability to lead you would think they are describing Trump.

I haven't agreed with everything he has said or his approach with brexit but it seems like such hyperbole listening to his critics and seems like a big disconnect between what I have seen and his reputation.

I'm sure there are reasons but when your choice is someone involved in politics who is fighting for a good progressive platform and someone notorious for wanting to remove privacy leading a party that has historically treated the lower half of the country and people with disabilities terribly while also lying about everything they have/will do its a pretty easy answer.

Of course the narrative in this country is we need to be strong and economics and businesses are more important than social care or social mobility so fuck everyone else apparently.
 
M

Mr. Sam

Member
You guys should do canvassing. It's really not hard, really rather useful, and you make new friends with whom you can go get absolutely wrecked afterwards.

Good clean fun.
 
E

Empty

Member
Mr. Sam said:
I managed to get one Ukipper voter to vote Labour while canvassing today so please lay the credit for the inevitable Labour landslide at my door. The sunburn will be worth it.

Edit: It was surprisingly easy to hit the Tories on the "death tax," triple lock, winter fuel allowance thing on the doorstep.
Click to expand...

good job :)
 
P

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Mr. Sam said:
I managed to get one Ukipper voter to vote Labour while canvassing today so please lay the credit for the inevitable Labour landslide at my door. The sunburn will be worth it.

Edit: It was surprisingly easy to hit the Tories on the "death tax," triple lock, winter fuel allowance thing on the doorstep.
Click to expand...

I think it'd surprise people how many might be willing to swing from UKIP to Labour (rather the Tories), despite the huge differences with UKIP being classic neoliberals with a completely different platform.

It's not like Labour isn't accepting the referendum result.

BossDarkseid said:
I kinda want to see what happens if Lab + SNP realize they could form a coalition in that situation. Just...curious >_>
Click to expand...

A coalition with nationalists would go over horribly, and understandably so. It'd have to be an ad hoc agreement to support on stuff like confidence measures and budget, no true coalition.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
Uzzy said:
Easy, Corbyn tells the SNP to vote for Labour policies or else they're responsible for putting the Tories in. No deal of any kind.
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Probably throw in a promise of a second indyref after brexit is negotiated/Scotland to be given a place in the negotiations and they can be hooked. How stable the coalition can be who knows.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
Theonik said:
Probably throw in a promise of a second indyref after brexit is negotiated/Scotland to be given a place in the negotiations and they can be hooked. How stable the coalition can be who knows.
Click to expand...

Nope, give them nothing. Tell them to vote for Labour policies or get the fuck out.

If the SNP want to replace a Labour government with a Tory one, then they should vote in favour of a motion of no confidence, and deal with that fallout.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
Uzzy said:
Nope, give them nothing. Tell them to vote for Labour policies or get the fuck out.

If the SNP want to replace a Labour government with a Tory one, then they should vote in favour of a motion of no confidence, and deal with that fallout.
Click to expand...
This doesn't a stable coalition make.
 
E

Empty

Member
Uzzy said:
If the SNP want to replace a Labour government with a Tory one, then they should vote in favour of a motion of no confidence, and deal with that fallout.
Click to expand...

yep. the snp took a long long time to recover from voting with thatcher to bring down a labour government in 1979. i dare them to do it again.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
Theonik said:
This doesn't a stable coalition make.
Click to expand...

And Labour could write off the next thirty years of politics if they went into any sort of coalition or agreement with the SNP. It'd kill Scottish Labour forever and probably drive away scores of Labour voters elsewhere in the country. It'd certainly drive me away.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
Uzzy said:
And Labour could write off the next thirty years of politics if they went into any sort of coalition or agreement with the SNP. It'd kill Scottish Labour forever and probably drive away scores of Labour voters elsewhere in the country. It'd certainly drive me away.
Click to expand...
Which is part of the reason I don't think an SNP coalition would be workable. Hung parliament it is.
 
D

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
All the Sunday papers seem pretty negative towards the tories this week. Even the Mail are using the term "dementia tax" and highlighted the slip in the polls

can you u-turn a manifesto pledge before the election? we might find out if this continues.
 
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