We don't know that yet. There's no legal clause to say we can't "take back control" of our article 50.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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We don't know that yet. There's no legal clause to say we can't "take back control" of our article 50.
Isn't May pretty liberal on gay rights?
Assuming that poll wasn't an outlier, is there any chance the SNP would make a coalition with the conservatives if it meant a second independence referendum would be approved by Westminster? Also does Scotland even need approval from Westminster for a second referendum? Seem to remember some debate around that
No.
The SNP have standing policy of no coalitions with the conservatives at any level of government.
SlipperyFishes
Banned
Maybe. But we have burned all good fucking will with 27 member states of the EU.
They're generally looking to fuck us over now and rightfully so. We wouldn't have any leverage and would look super weak.
Jezbollah
Member
Yep. Thats beyond hell freezing over.
Phew, that's a relief, thanks
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Very recently converted. I have no doubt Crabb would do the same with more prominence. It's a vote-loser to be otherwise, even for Conservatives - we're not America.
Huw_Dawson
Member
OK, so let me be quite clear:
1. There is no way a coalition with the Conservative party could work. There is no way I could ever see Tim Farron stomaching being at a cabinet table with May. None. He despised the coalition. Also, Brexit - literally the main policy of our party is to not do stuff like leave the Single Market. There simply is not enough common ground to make a coalition work.
2. There is no way a coalition with Labour could work. Corbyn leads an unstable enough party as it is. Although we are happy to give thumbs up to the more centrists bits of his manifesto, he wants to raise taxes far, far too high and nationalise big chunks of the transport network. Also, he wants to go through with Brexit and leaving the Single Market. Thus, no common ground either. In addition, it would likely be a Labour/SNP coalition, and we cannot enter coalition with the SNP as we are a unionist party.
If instead the LDs hold the balance of power in a minority government situation, we can vote on legislation as it comes by the Commons, attempt to vote it down if it goes against what we want, or pass it if it's good Lib Demmy policy.
This gives the LDs a hell of a lot of power - no pacts or secret deals to allow crap legislation through.
The problem is that a Hung Commons will actually be hung between the Lib Dems, Plaid, the SNP, the NI parties, one or two Greens and an independent.
This is the parliament that has to pass the Autumn Statement (or is it a budget now, as they've unified them?) and legislation on leaving the EU.
It would be one of the most gloriously chaotic and short-lived parliaments in UK history.
Theonik
Member
Not really. She was against it until Cameron pushed it as part of the party line. In truth her tenure as an MP was quite boring overall.
She's always been one to tow the party line if anything. Nowadays though, gay rights are vote winners. So it'd be hard even for the Tories to back off.
Coriolanus
Banned
i can assure you that i'd find it intensely amusing.
The conservatives have burned the bridges, not the UK.
The EU government still care about the actual British people, because unlike the conservatives they're not awful human beings.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Zero hour contracts are great! People on zero hour contracts are more satisfied than regular workers. I'll dig the survey out when I get home. They just get a bad rap.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I'd be up for it, to be honest. It would be the greatest whack of karma in the history of British politics.
Mayotov - Sturgeontrop Pact
Really though, as others have said, those kind of election results would just lead to another election in six months time, which would totally bode well. But as they say, hope is the first step on the road to disappointment, and we'll all be hyping ourselves up only to be crushed at 22:01 when the exit polls show a decent Tory majority and a smiling May. I mean, I'd love it if we hit 22:01 and we saw Dimbleby getting nationalised as he sings the Internationale, but that's not going to happen.
Coriolanus
Banned
i'd say that a safer bet is that they're as likely to care about the british people as they were with the greek people.
Honestly, i don't quite get the hate for zero hour contacts. As a student I'd much rather have the flexibility than a set number of hours a week.
If those numbers came anywhere close to happening... It'd be fucking incredible. If we're driving off the Brexit cliff, why not set the car on fire before we go? I would be concerned that a collapsing minority Tory govt would just lead to more wasted time prior to the fucking nonsense of Brexit, but at this point, fuck it. Maybe an inoperable parliament would make everyone act like adults and cancel Brexit? Maybe? (Please?)
Also, if those figures are correct, my breakfast on June 9th will just be Pimm's and lemonade and a box of cigars, because why not.
Also, if those figures are correct, my breakfast on June 9th will just be Pimm's and lemonade and a box of cigars, because why not.
Indeed - looking into it seems like a bit of 'fake news' that is taking twitter by storm. There's no way to determine his income from this information, and it seems highly unlikely it's anywhere near that high.
Jezbollah
Member
YouGov are either going to look brilliant or going to look like complete buffoons for getting it wrong two Elections in a row.
Either way, it'll be fun to watch
Was Yougov the one which assumed youth voter turnout would be ridiculously high?
WhateverItTakes
Banned
This would be so bloody insane. Still hoping for the Tories/May to make some huge fuck up in the next week.
PowderedToast
Junior Member
Jeremy was brilliant on the one show. As a silly and spineless tea time diversion it can be pretty infuriating to see them give the likes of may a free PR boost, but equally it allowed corbyn to show his warm nature without any desire to trip him up. I think it'll have impressed people a fair bit.
I recognise that the Liberal Democrats were hammered by being part of the last coalition, but for the Liberal Democrats long term goals, going into coalition is surely going to be necessary? Coalition government is practically the most optimistic future the Liberal Democrats can have - and I'd prefer to vote for a pragmatic party prepared to do the necessary thing than an ideological party that consigns itself forever to the sidelines.
Right now the stance seems sensible, but at some point we're going to have to get used to coalitions in this country.
I'll believe it at 22:00 on the 8th. Exit poll is either going to be "Oh well", "Holy shit" or some weird hybrid of the two.
I'm still thinking a slightly grown Tory majority is more likely. Personal attacks on Corbyn are intensifying from all angles. It will have an effect.
What would be incredible about a hung parliament is that it would be two successive Tory Prime Ministers committing political suicide within 12 months (well technically Cameron called the referendum well before that but still).
I'm still thinking a slightly grown Tory majority is more likely. Personal attacks on Corbyn are intensifying from all angles. It will have an effect.
What would be incredible about a hung parliament is that it would be two successive Tory Prime Ministers committing political suicide within 12 months (well technically Cameron called the referendum well before that but still).
It wouldn't be reported on if they did fuck up though.
Depends how big the fuckup is.
I see, that makes things more interesting then. Still pessimistic but keeping happening.gif ready.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
No. That was Survation. YouGov is pretty normal - 56%. Above 2015, below referendum.
Doctor_Thomas
Member
It can be blocked at anytime within the 2 years. This is a Tory lie that they, for some reason, kept repeating. EU even said we could revoke it.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I 100% agree with you, but the issue is Brexit and the ideological stances of the parties. 2010 worked because Cameron and Clegg were both socially liberal economic liberals who wanted to tackle the economic crisis - there's no such obvious pairing of leaders. Farron and Corbyn is already a bonkers idea, Farron and May is far, far, far, far, far more bonkers.
I don't even know if Farron likes jam. Or hideous leopard-print trousers.
And Clegg was willing to burn his headline policy and his principles to the ground for a sabotaged referendum on AV.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yup. Utterly imbecilic.
I think in the above scenario, you have Conservatives governing with Unionist support in NI in a minority arrangement, with the hope being that the Brexiteer Labour MPs defy the party whip and prevent the government falling before we leave the EU.
JonathanEx
Member
I'm refusing to get excited, it'll be the 2015 exit poll all over again.
Also the latest Ballot Monkeys/Power Monkeys series started tonight, amusingly it's pushed Newsnight back five minutes which is a nice touch. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08sxpkp
Also the latest Ballot Monkeys/Power Monkeys series started tonight, amusingly it's pushed Newsnight back five minutes which is a nice touch. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08sxpkp
Starwolf_UK
Member
This kind of snooping around is why my parents refused to be a limited company even though not doing so meant that if their business collapsed they would lose everything. Kapoor has a few too many baskets to not risk that.
But I feel with many is there might have been some point with what they are saying (staff are a big expense although I think the government having to subsidise low wages via tax credits is absurd) but he fucking lost it with many people by crying about private school VAT fees and spouting crap about how he should be a labour voter because of where he was born which just revealed his true blue colours. In other words they are the villain and will be dragged through the mud. Worth noting though if does vote that he is probably a pharmacist (looking at the companies in question, with some property dev on the side*) and the conservatives are cutting funding there but it seems people love voting blue when they are most affected by them.
*-I went to school with a builder whose father was a hairdresser turned property developer.
"unlock"?
I think I'm seeing Corbyn as a girl eating the sandwich rn, and I don't even mind.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The Times article.
Tory lead cut to 4%. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...dicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
Tory lead cut to 4%. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...dicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I did wonder what happened to that poll PoliticalBetting were talking about. We have our 4%, it seems.
Huw_Dawson
Member
LDs still on 9, woop.
(I'll take my small victories)
(I'll take my small victories)
Theonik
Member
Which is still massively better than what they were initially predicted to get!
Dorsal Axe
Member
Looks like the UK is getting a new Prime Minister.
...because even if the Conservatives remain in power, there's no way they're keeping May after this.
...because even if the Conservatives remain in power, there's no way they're keeping May after this.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yougov apparently arrived at this thanks to 50k interviews over the course of this past week.
The problem is that this will affect voting patterns.
The problem is that this will affect voting patterns.
To be fair, there is little other numerical data to actually go on.
Indeed, she'd have probably remained in power at least until the eventual brexit negotiation cockup were it not for her hubris.
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