The problem is, Corbyn is still going to be in a position whereby he can choose to go if he pleases. Those insane Labour members that are somehow convinced that every single poll is massively wrong by about 15% over the margin of error might not go away. Even with the proof that this election will bring.
UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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The problem is, Corbyn is still going to be in a position whereby he can choose to go if he pleases. Those insane Labour members that are somehow convinced that every single poll is massively wrong by about 15% over the margin of error might not go away. Even with the proof that this election will bring.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
Also if anyone is in the mood for some political history, this series on the downfall of the Labour party in the 80's is amazing watching and will put the world into context for you with regards to Jeremy Corbyn and his awkward squad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIgiV8yn3xU&index=1&list=PLcueuIEuwzRQmBGqtfBAskN1R4ft_gkJi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIgiV8yn3xU&index=1&list=PLcueuIEuwzRQmBGqtfBAskN1R4ft_gkJi
To repost this for a new page: http://www.conservatives2017.com/
Huw_Dawson
Member
Corbyn will cling on long enough to pass a rule allowing any MP to stand for leadership without being supported by other members of the PLP - that's all the hard left need to do now to guarantee perpetual control. Then it'll be a matter of getting as many Trotskyite MPs as possible in via by-elections and de-selections.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Do you know how big the Labour win was 2015? If really large you can probably choose non-Tory party based on personal policy preference. If the Tories have any chance at all, go Labour.
Regarding the bolded: Good! Better late than never. I hope more people get out of political apathy
I mean, their electoral prospects aren't exactly rosy as it is, can't really get much worse.
There's a higher chance of the conservatives ended up with a majority near Tony Blair's in 1997 and 2001 at this point then losing their majority.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
Nah. Crushing election defeat and they'll scatter back to their weird little single issues. This is the only thing I have any confidence in. They're already workshy, frustrated and sidelined in any serious business outside of momentum and CLP business.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Who's going to be brave and get their predictions in early?
Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats
Labour seats:
Lib Dem seats:
SNP seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
UKIP seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales?
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:
Post or PM your replies, bottle of something for the winner, or something like that. I'll setup a Google Doc or Excel spreadsheet that you'll be able to view the data from eventually.
Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.
Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats
Labour seats:
Lib Dem seats:
SNP seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
UKIP seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales?
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:
Post or PM your replies, bottle of something for the winner, or something like that. I'll setup a Google Doc or Excel spreadsheet that you'll be able to view the data from eventually.
Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.
Yeah in my area it was 60%. Cons were second with 14%
Yeah, I've realised how important voting is.
CyclopsRock
Member
Free money available at Betfair: Odds on a Tory majority 1.18 (was 1.22 last night). This is literally free money, guys. Anyone with any liquidity, get on it. Remortgage your house, do whatever you have to do.
CyclopsRock
Member
Also great OP, Dan. I love how the Green picture for Lucas looks like a stock photo of "smiling businesswoman and man."
where do you live?
PJV3
Member
If we are going to get to a better position the right of the party needs to be a lot less aggro. Or we can wait for the Tories to collapse from exhaustion in 15 years or so.
The so called winning wing of the party has been incredibly clumsy the last few years, we need something better in future.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Conservative Party seats: 415
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 140
Lib Dem seats: 16
SNP seats: 56
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: Just John Bercow in GB
Seats held by other parties: 0
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales? lolno
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? No major resignations - May will claim victory, Corbyn will refuse to resign, Farron will claim improvement and so stay on, Paul Nuttall of the UKIPs will win the Premier League, etc.
How many party leaders will resign? None
Seat for Nuttall? No
I'm leaving out Nireland because that shit's a mess, will have a look at the numbers later. Left out margin of seats and votes because I'm not sure whether you mean the distance between the winner and the second placed party or the size of the majority.
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 140
Lib Dem seats: 16
SNP seats: 56
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: Just John Bercow in GB
Seats held by other parties: 0
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales? lolno
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? No major resignations - May will claim victory, Corbyn will refuse to resign, Farron will claim improvement and so stay on, Paul Nuttall of the UKIPs will win the Premier League, etc.
How many party leaders will resign? None
Seat for Nuttall? No
I'm leaving out Nireland because that shit's a mess, will have a look at the numbers later. Left out margin of seats and votes because I'm not sure whether you mean the distance between the winner and the second placed party or the size of the majority.
hydrophilic attack
Member
What are they, a table from Ikea?
SirRattleBalls
Banned
Labour will be wiped out, They will most likely lose a vast majority of their seats outside of London.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Distance between first and second, will clarify in my post.
Cool.
AHA-Lambda
Member
to be fair those are already the case
Roberto Larcos
Member
On current polling, sure. But on an election night with tactical voting aplenty? Who knows?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
No? in 2015 Labour got 24,3% of the vote to the Conservatives' 14,9%. It's actually a relatively bold prediction - a significant minority of Scottish voters still go SNP for Holyrood and Labour for Westminster (who knows why).
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
It isn't a case of right v left. There are plenty of us on the edges of the centre left who hate him and the lunatics he's brought in. In truth it's the hard left and the marxists vs everyone else. Sad thing is that many of the young, naive fools clamouring for him daren't even admit to themselves that they're rooting for marxism. The rest don't understand what's wrong with it.
You never trust a man that ends every sentence with an exclamation mark. That's a rookie error.
Ravensmash
Member
I live in an absolute Conservative strong hold. The old joke is that you could stick a blue rosette on a pig and it'd get voted in here.
I believe Lib Dems finished second in 2010, with a switch to Labour in 2015. Shall have to think carefully and see who's campaigning locally.
AHA-Lambda
Member
I was thinking more about the number of seats but wow, I hadn't actually realised the difference in votes there with tory and labour =/
I think conservative will get a big surge in votes this time though, don't know how that will translate to seats given our weird FPTP system
Bits N Pieces
Member
I wonder how man seats the SNP lose and how that affects the public perception of a mandate for another Indie ref?
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
My guess is that they'll take a hit but it won't be significant enough to change much.
When people from all the fragmented tribes on the left and centre come to terms with how colossal the Tory victory has been, things will be very different.
I think they'll gain at least 1 or 2 of the 3 remaining seats they haven't got in Scotland
Depends mainly on if they lose them to the Lib Dems or the Conservatives, doesn't it? Lose three seats to the Lib Dems and they'd be less dominant, lose three seats to the Conservatives and it's a different story.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
All the leaders are turds. Reluctantly voting Labour because my candidate is on the Right of the Labour party and isn't a dinosaur fighting old battles.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
And here we go again! Nice OP Dan27, just a coupla notes on it:
Well, policies, plus the ability to actually carry them out, plus the ability to competently run all the existing stuff that nobody cares about without irreparably breaking it.
Dammit, I'm all politicked out after last year.
Also dithering, which is unusual for me, between Conservative and LibDem.
Well, policies, plus the ability to actually carry them out, plus the ability to competently run all the existing stuff that nobody cares about without irreparably breaking it.
Dammit, I'm all politicked out after last year.
Also dithering, which is unusual for me, between Conservative and LibDem.
Ravensmash
Member
I wonder if we'll see the return of Nigel?
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Sooo, why are you thinking of voting Conservative?
AHA-Lambda
Member
I think they'll lose a couple but that'll be it
PJV3
Member
Nah, there's a group in labour that never got over David Miliband losing let alone Jeremy winning. Corbyn needs to have gone long ago so I'm not not some die hard communist deluded about his prospects in the coming election.
My seat is strongly Conservative though LibDems had a really good showing in years gone by. Only in 2015 did they lose a ton of support.
It'll have to be #TeamYellow.
A little frustrating to be 99% sure that all that will happen is the Cons get a larger majority and just do whatever they want over the coming 5 years, though it might at least wake Labour up
.
It'll have to be #TeamYellow.
A little frustrating to be 99% sure that all that will happen is the Cons get a larger majority and just do whatever they want over the coming 5 years, though it might at least wake Labour up
it won't
There's a chance the tories don't even break 400 seats at this point.Would May even care if they don't get an additional 70 seats.
Similar situation here, live in Surrey so no chance of a Tory loss. It actually makes me cringe every time I remember Jeremy Hunt is the MP for my area.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
All my local representatives are cunts. I don't feel like any of the parties really match my political views fully so as usual i will be voting for my local Lib Dem cunt as it's the only way to keep the local Tory cunt out in my constituency. The local Labour cunt is nothing more than a distant also ran.
As an aside, I think I should get my own election night TV segment complete with CGI Twat-O-Vision wall. I'm clearly quite insightful and eloquent.
As an aside, I think I should get my own election night TV segment complete with CGI Twat-O-Vision wall. I'm clearly quite insightful and eloquent.
brokenbeans
Banned
I'm gonna be out the country what to do I do?
Apart from not come back 😀
Apart from not come back 😀
Any increase in the majority - particularly with young, fresh candidates who have less reason to stand up to the leadership - is good for May.
PJV3
Member
As it stands Corbyn is screwed, I was just thinking about possible unexpected events, though the events would probably require baby eating at this point.
Bits N Pieces
Member
There is no way they retain all their seats, nevermind win any of the three they don't currently hold.
As an SNP and Yes voter I worry that this could throw a real spanner in what the SNP are trying to do, I can see the both the Tories and Lib Dem getting into double figures between them. Labour are absolutely fucked though, they could become irrelevant after this GE in Scotland.
Linkstrikesback
Member
Apply for a postal vote.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Nothing wrong with Marxism. The 12 actionable points set out in The Principles of Communism are progressive taxation, the establishment of state companies to give competition to monopolies and the gradual mutualization of those monopolies over time, the confiscation of property of rebels against the people (this means monarchists and is now kind of redundant), the institution of a minimum wage, a benefits system for all people who are willing to work (UBI is literally more communist than Marx!), the establishment of a national investment bank, a cultivation of fledgling industries, free education for all provided by the state, the provision of social housing for all, the destruction of unsafe slums, equal inheritance rights for those born out of wedlock, and complete state ownership of the transport system.
Marx and Engels mostly talk about class relations - they surprisingly rarely advocated specific economic policies, and it's always surprising how moderate the policies they actually advance are (a product of their times, I guess - universal education free of charge was pretty radical in the 1850s). "Marxism" is a sociological theory, and has relatively little to do with direct economic policy. Of the above 12 points, most have actually already been implemented in Western countries to some degree or another.
/small history lesson
Now if you said "Leninism", we have more to agree about.
A bad result for the tories would actually be only getting between 350 and 360. I think May would be pissed if they did not increase their majority by a crazy amount.
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