TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared
Member
My postal vote was going to be labour anyway, but I started off thinking Corbyn was a bit of a weirdo but now I've seen/heard a bit more of him, I really dig him. Doubt they'll win, but I hope he stays on as leader.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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My postal vote was going to be labour anyway, but I started off thinking Corbyn was a bit of a weirdo but now I've seen/heard a bit more of him, I really dig him. Doubt they'll win, but I hope he stays on as leader.
Seems to have backfired on them though. Has made May's move look even worse.
Not turning up to the debate would have been fair enough. Wouldn't have looked great but just paint it as a challenger's debate, Cameron did as much. But then they send a lackey which looks worse because it's no longer a challenger's debate and makes her look weaker - makes it look like Rudd is better able to represent the Tory party than the leader herself. Then they release this info about Rudd's father which makes May look callous for letting Rudd take on her responsibility. Whoever is in charge of running the Tory campaign needs to be fired.
show me your skeleton
Member
damn, rekt.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
He's banned at the moment, I thought? I hope not permanent.
British polls are such trash.
Coriolanus
Banned
indeed.
Some are saying Panelbase haven't done a new pole yet, so it will be interesting to see what they give.
They're a secret Corbyn mole.
Nah, the middle group of polls sound about right. Panelbase release their's tomorrow and have said it will have a Tory lead decrease
Little Old Man
Member
Crosby will be praying for a poll that puts Labour neck and neck or ahead to spook the electorate into voting Tory.
The thing about polls is they don't necessarily translate to seats. So you then need to feed the poll into a model that varies wildly across the UK.
e.g. That apparent further Lib Dem collapse might not be as bad if all their support remains strong or even grows in the South West and East Scotland. That might be enough to gain 6 or 7 seats while they lose votes in the in Yorkshire and the North of England but it doesn't effect their seat count.
This is amazing! And so shamelessly stolen for social media sorry
ANuclearError
Member
http://i.imgur.com/k15kbtC.png[
Huh?
EDIT: As pointed out below, this was a typo. The question asks for predictions, not preferences
Huh?
EDIT: As pointed out below, this was a typo. The question asks for predictions, not preferences
Jezbollah
Member
Audioboxer
Member
Happens all the time.
Which party has the policies that suit you best? Labour. Who should you consider voting for? Labour.
Who are you going to vote for/who should win? Conservative.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That was public prediction, not public preference. Britain Elects typo'd.
Or that Comres are terrible
Aren't Comres showing the biggest Tory lead (outside of a relatively ancient Panelbase poll)?
The TNS poll also took place over 5-6 days which is a bit odd to say the least as such a poll would have an tendancy to flatline any sudden increase in a partys polling.
If panel base come back with a tory lead of around 8-6 points then I think the tories may begin to worry as that would put them into possible low majority/ hung parliament. Survation, who did a reasonable job last time in 2015, seems to probably be the best with a 6 point difference.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Survation were the most accurate pollsters in 2015 and the referendum, so it's not like YouGOV is completely mad.
How do you know, with that spread?
Survation are the only pollster not to make any radical changes in weighting methodology since 2015 so they're pretty confident in their setup. Well Panelbase haven't made any big changes yet either, but are supposedly throwing in a completely new model for their final poll just for the luls (although I think they said they're going to show results with both their old and new model)
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Oh that makes waaaay more sense.
Huh?
More people think they have the best policies for their family and their country......but only 7% want them to get a majority. The British public.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It was a typo. It's people's prediction of the result, not their preference over the result.
That makes more sense.
Audioboxer
Member
Brian Elects wouldn't make a typo.
I think it was a one month ban.
Yep. Comres were an odd one last time, they had the occasional poll showing a tie apart from their poll showing a 4 point tory lead. Even then though it was close to margin of error.
whyamihere
Banned
Huh?
EDIT: ohhhh. Yeah, that's makes sense.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's a hobbyist site run by recent graduates, I'm surprised they don't make more.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Wait, he won't come back before election? That's cruel. I think that's excessive for what happened.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
How far out were they?
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
YouGOV or Survation?
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
Today we've had a story about senior Tories being furious that an election was called and also about how it's been run, Boris refusing several times to rule out standing for the leadership, and now a leaked story that makes Rudd look strong and brave and May look cowardly and callous timed just as Rudd is appearing on national TV.
I think the knives are out for May, even if the Tories win the election.
Meant Survation ha , sorry
Yeah, barring a complete landslide victory somewhat resembling the initial predictions, May has been weakened by this snap election.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
37-31 for GE which was spot-on for Labour and 1 point too low for the Conservatives, 51-49 for Referendum which was 1 point too low on Leave and 1 point too high on Remain.
Obviously there's a fair amount of luck in that because even a hypothetical perfect polling model still has random error, so it's not like they're some magical gold standard, but they do have a good record.
itsbenoclock
Member
Can't decide whether to get my hopes up for a Labour coalition or just let the Tories keep a majority so they can be blamed for all the Brexit cock-ups and sink the Conservatives for a decade or two
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
The contenders are already starting their campaigns. If the Labour slugs throw another tantrum we could see simultaneous Labour/Tory leadership elections for the 2nd time in a year
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Would rather have a coalition to kill the hard Brexit.
The thingg is they literally can't lose. If they do fuck up everything they'll find a way to blame labour.
The headline reads like the bias was against Labour, not for it. Maybe that's just my opinion projecting onto it!
They're going to shrug off any mishaps over brexit. Their strong and stable avatar will get all the blame.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Given Theresa May refused to turn up to her job interview, we'll need to sanction her public benefits.
Jezbollah
Member
Of course they will be. There are major negotiations to take place very soon after the election - one of the key aspects of such a process is to know your opponent. The EU will be delighted if Corbyn gets in, because it means a larger likelyhood of a soft Brexit and less painful negotiations (I'm guessing at that last bit..)
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