Theonik
Member
I'd support Londonpendance tbh. Londinia sounds like a good name for a country.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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PJV3
Member
Londinium, going back to our continental roots.
PowderedToast
Junior Member
May: "I think Amber Rudd did an excellent job" *canned applause*
Reporter: "Did you actually watch the debate last night?" *muffled laughter"
hilarious
Reporter: "Did you actually watch the debate last night?" *muffled laughter"
hilarious
Of course she didn't. She was thinking about brexit.
Terrified of being ripped apart during the negotiations, no doubt.
Huw_Dawson
Member
We'll ultimately see on Richmond. Might come down to a tiny number of votes - it's clear that the momentum is away from the Tories in London.
This does represent us holding Carshalton though which I'd be chuffed over.
My hunch is, once again, that Yougov are wildly optimistic about final turnout.
Let's hope they're not aye?
If anything it's more likely that these "yeah tories are going to win 100%" Tory voters that won't turn up hopefully.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I want all those Labour voters showing up and voting!
But not in Cambridge, Bermondsey, Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam.
But not in Cambridge, Bermondsey, Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam.
Someone spotted that the Lib Dems updated their 404 page heh, appoligies if already posted:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/whatsthe404pagelooklike
http://www.libdems.org.uk/whatsthe404pagelooklike
BlazingDarkness
Member
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Haha
jimbobsmells
Member
Just saw my first Corbyn attack ad on YouTube. Absolutely disgusting. We're turning into the US.
Are they running with the joke party line now then?
The press aren't buying this shit any more asking more and more specific questions yet the answers remain the same.
The guy from channel 4 asked "where is the £8bn for the NHS coming from" and then an audible laugh as May starts by saying "let's look at our record on the NHS" followed by two minutes of not answering.
The guy from channel 4 asked "where is the £8bn for the NHS coming from" and then an audible laugh as May starts by saying "let's look at our record on the NHS" followed by two minutes of not answering.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
YouGov aren't being especially optimistic about turnout. They have 18-24 turnout at 59%, for example. Higher than 2015 (44%), lower than the referendum (64%). I don't think it's at all implausible that the referendum politicised that generation, the same way Scottish turnout has been through the roof since Indyref.
The significant difference between YouGov and ICM isn't turnout, it's what they're doing with undecideds.
The significant difference between YouGov and ICM isn't turnout, it's what they're doing with undecideds.
Well I know a lot of people my age (22) who are voting for the first time and voting Labour. It would be good if the Brexit fuck up made some youth actually vote.
What were the differences in how they treated undecideds in 2015? Does that tell us anything about who might be more accurate?
itsbenoclock
Member
I'm not at all optimistic about it. I'm 21 and at university; have been asking people if they've registered to vote and the most common response is "I don't feel like I know enough about politics to make an informed decision". I feel like bashing my head in on a wall half the time.
They're at university... I mean I can think of something they might be informed about.
Lmao
PJV3
Member
I hope you are telling them that doesn't stop other people voting and directing their future.
Sometimes I despair at the youth, I really do. I was taking an interest in this shit when I was 10!
Huw_Dawson
Member
The thing is, if young people were seriously motivated by getting shafted over the EU referendum, they'd be out voting for the LDs over it - or at least more than they are now. The entire manifesto is a busted flush based on the hope of young people looking around for some kind of vehicle which is not wonky and seeing a manifesto pretty much exactly tailored for them.
My view on turnout is that it's going to be disappointing on all fronts other than the pensioner group - we can see real clear signs of disengagement with higher than usual numbers of undecided voters and lower views on TV debates.
So I think in the end turnout is going to be several percentage points lower than the GE of 2015 or the referendum.
Theonik
Member
Londinium can be the capital of the new Republic of Londinia.
If youth vote is low again I don't want to hear anyone moan about tuition fees or the shit, difficult job market for another generation.
I don't think it will be though. I think it will be at least somewhere between 2015 and Brexit as suggested above.
I've been asked if I want to join my local CLP this Saturday and on polling day - and while this might be false hope getting me too deeply invested - I think I'm going to join and try and do my bit.
I don't think it will be though. I think it will be at least somewhere between 2015 and Brexit as suggested above.
I've been asked if I want to join my local CLP this Saturday and on polling day - and while this might be false hope getting me too deeply invested - I think I'm going to join and try and do my bit.
As a person of centre-right leanings, I have bloody no one to vote for who are even close to my viewpoints.
The tory campaign has been a bloody shambles. Going far too right-wing for my liking and Theresa May is looking less 'strong and stable' each passing day.
The Labour campaign is way too left wing. I'm certain in my mind they will break this country financially. Their manifesto scares me.
The Lib Dems support a second referendum. I certainly don't. And Tim Farron has questionable personal views for me.
Brilliant. I might as well start my own party for the next GE. All the main English parties suck.
The tory campaign has been a bloody shambles. Going far too right-wing for my liking and Theresa May is looking less 'strong and stable' each passing day.
The Labour campaign is way too left wing. I'm certain in my mind they will break this country financially. Their manifesto scares me.
The Lib Dems support a second referendum. I certainly don't. And Tim Farron has questionable personal views for me.
Brilliant. I might as well start my own party for the next GE. All the main English parties suck.
itsbenoclock
Member
Damn right I am. Astounds me how stupid people are when it comes to voting.
As for the university fees thing, one friend wanted to vote Labour, but forgot to register.
Several poll cards from past residents have come to my uni house, so that's about 5 votes wasted already.
Made sure another girl registered but not entirely convinced she'll bother on the day, first election too.
Unrelated but back last November I knew of a group of around 20 American girls on exchange who all didn't vote, subsequently complained about Trump.
In short, I don't trust my generation to make the right choices.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Broadly speaking, YouGOV has no expectations about undecideds and essentially ignores them. ICM assumes that if you are undecided and voted Conservative/Labour last time, there's a 75% chance you'll vote Conservative/Labour this time and are just currently unsure. There's a very large pool of undecided female voters in their 30s and 40s, who seem to have voted Conservative in 2015, but are now rather unsure who to vote for. That's the big source of the difference.
ICM is also more pessimistic about turnout as well, but it isn't the big difference between the two.
It is a national curse. Tell these people that most people aren't informed and will vote. There is an 90 year old with dementia who thinks Corbyn is Chamberlain and is still going to vote (for the Tories) Yer Da is going to vote and all he does is rage about immigrants and the IRA. Some posh cunt who never worked a day in his life is going to vote.
Fucking students. Couldn't even convince their own Union to back abolishing fees.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Take a look at your constituency, decide if you're for or against the constituency MP keeping their job, and vote accordingly.
No party represents all of of your viewpoints. Even if you don't want a referendum on the final deal, you might still be a fan of staying in the single market, for example. Even if you don't want to nationalise all the transport networks, maybe you really do think energy should be in public hands. Maybe you're not really racist, but you do have a problem with "immigration" and "cultural identity".
If you want convincing to vote Lib Dem (if Lib Dems can win in your area) then the Economist article can explain a very good reason to do so, even if you're not enthused with the current party.
Backing the Lib Dems now will show support for centrist policies. After this election we can all hope for a British Macron or Trudeau to step forwards. Maybe it won't be Tim Farron. Hell, maybe it will be another Lib Dem, or someone who takes the plunge exiting Labour (Chukka Umunna pls).
Theonik
Member
There another option. Vote strategically with the aim to cause a hung parliament. In that scenario, conservatives will have to re-align to the centre to enter a coalition. Labour could equally be moderated in much the same way.
E: And yeah do what Huw said.
Coriolanus
Banned
Unfortunately for the LDs, I think the idea that "the people have decided" still chimes with an awful lot of people.
While a second rubber-stamping referendum makes sense to many (myself included), I think some people feel it would be folly to promise one - as it would risk emboldening European negotiators to offer a deal that the UK public won't agree to, and then we're in a position where "the 52%" are outraged at the possibility of there being a conspiracy to overturn their decision. And some others still feel that the ball has started rolling, and it seems unrealistic or impracticable to roll it back.
I think people care about other things. And young people probably care more about the things which manifestly effect them day to day - like tuition fees, like the opportunity and quality of jobs (or lack thereof), even - the care of their parents and grandparents. Social justice matters more to young people I think. They're not always as cynical and jaded as their 'betters'.
Wow, she is really showing how useless she actually is as a prime minister
Huw_Dawson
Member
This, 100%. We'd probably be doing slightly better in the polls right now, but being very pro-Remain now is the long term strategy. I want to come on here in two years time and read how folks are enthused with the Lib Dems sticking up for their views about the EU when May pulls us out without a deal.
Folks were willing to give Farron a fair hearing last night. I want them to be able to give my party a really fair hearing next GE - and that means we need to give you reasons to trust us and believe in us again.
The problem is that we don't want a referendum NOW. We want it at the end of the Brexit process. It's a hard sell. Lots of Remainers like the idea, but it won't be a seriously popular one with pro-EU peeps until we see how badly May has botched this.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Assuming the Liberal Democrats actually stick to their coalition promise, the magic target is for (Con + DUP + UUP) < (650 - SF)/2. If the Cons get a hung parliament, but get like 218 or whatever, they can get through with DUP support. So it has to be more than just slightly hung, as well, which is a problem.
The other problem is that most postal votes have already been completed, so much of a last minute Labour surge might not make it to the polls.
The other problem is that most postal votes have already been completed, so much of a last minute Labour surge might not make it to the polls.
With that level of support I can just chill and take the day off. Don't have to worry about Isleworth that has a massive Labour majority of 400+
(This poll does nothing for me and I'm still worried Isleworth will swing back to the Tories)
itsbenoclock
Member
The way May is talking about Brexit makes me think no matter what we'll be walking away with no deal in the event of a Tory majority. Iceberg ahead!
That would be hilarious, and probably last a week with the backwards bigot brothers from the pravance demanding all sorts. The DUP are essentially ran a rural farming crowd who are about to be assfucked backwards (ironically) by Brexit (they don't like Irish Catholics but are happy to use their meat processing, dairy facilities and buy and sell cattle to them), there's no good Brexit deal for their constituency.
that's what they want because then they get to turn us into a shitty little tax haven for all their friends.
Kotetsu534
Member
The idea that students don't vote is an ongoing myth. Youth tournout is low, but student turnout is high - higher than the national average.
(Also students tend to be slightly to the right of the general public on economic issues.)
Edit: I realise I'm not disagreeing with you - but presumably tuition fees aren't anywhere near as big a deal for the non-student young as for students.
And yet Labour is painted as the only financially unstable one
I'm feeling more and more like this might be the outcome.
Firstly, thanks for the detailed response.
The issue I have is that all the major parties, nationally, have very big reasons for me not to vote for them. Tories are getting too close to UKIP thinking, Labour want to nationalise everything, and I just wish Lib Dems had Nick Clegg back as their leader.
I have looked locally already and my Tory candidate has done a decent job, and it's very likely he will get back in. But truthfully that's not as important to me as the national politics are.
To be honest I have researched hard already before posting - it was more of a shout out on how bad I think politics is right now where I really don't want anyone to win because every major party for me has a red line. That's a shocking state of affairs.
Linkstrikesback
Member
I want all those Labour voters showing up and voting!
But not in Cambridge, Bermondsey, Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam.
Sorry Huw, but after the debate last night was the last straw, I do have to go for Labour this time. If it makes you feel better, I see more Lib Dems winning here signs around than Labour ones.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Lucius86 - Honestly I agree with you - in a slightly different world where the Lib Dems had scored about 18.5k more votes in the right seats, we'd still have a Cameron/Clegg coalition, be in the EU, and Farage would still be shrieking and ignored.
And @Linkstrikesback that's a shame, but I won't argue if you've made your mind up. Clegg deserves to keep his seat, and we need a radical centre-left voice in British politics - there are lots of people like Lucius out there who are not pleased with any party on offer.
And @Linkstrikesback that's a shame, but I won't argue if you've made your mind up. Clegg deserves to keep his seat, and we need a radical centre-left voice in British politics - there are lots of people like Lucius out there who are not pleased with any party on offer.
Dirtyshubb
Member
Really doesnt surprise me.
The biggest threat we have for future generations in this country are the self entitled, economic style University student Conservatives who proclaim to be socially liberal and financially conservative.
Every single one that i have met have been a middle class, self entitled hypocrite that will throw whoever they need to under the bus to have a 'strong economy'.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)
Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.
I look forward to ICM with interest.
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)
Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.
I look forward to ICM with interest.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
More polls showing the gap lowering, the better.
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