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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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King_Moc

Banned
3m households is a lot tbh.

The bullshit reporting on it from the BBC in the news probably reaches more people. This morning they were saying that Rudd had stayed on script well and Corbyn hadn't got any attacks in on her. That was it. That was their summing up of the whole thing.

I swear, if there was a vote on the BBC now, I'd vote to shut the fucking thing down.
 

Daffy Duck

Member
i agree it is but who are these undecideds? I've only met one swing voter in my whole life, that's my brother in law. Voted Tory in the last election and he's voting labour in this one. I just don't think that debate would be enough to sway the minds of undecided voters.

I think most people probably already know who they'll vote for. The election will be decided by the turnout rather than people changing their minds.

I'm a swing voter, voted Tory last time and now I will be voting Labour.

You also have to think that if someone is engaged enough to actually watch the debate then they are engaged enough to talk about the results with others.

The Conservatives came off terribly to anyone but the no hope brainwashed Tory voters who wouldn't ever change their mind.

I could easily see the narrative of May being chicken and the debate actually not being as bad as the papers make out being one that spreads.

How this changes things for the election result? Maybe nothing but the more unstable we can make May and the Tories look the better this narrative of 'Strong and Stable' is shown for the soundbite that it is.

The strong and stable narrative will die the moment she wins without a majority (and will also be the death knell for May), that's what this whole election was called for, without it she is dead.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
I'm not even sure I disagree. I want the Conservatives to own Brexit and the consequences of Brexit. A hung parliament, with a Conservative minority, massive loss of face for May, and a rebuilt Labour Party is like my dream result at this point.

Not that it will happen.

Maybe it's the eternal optimist in me but, considering the far reaching implications of Brexit, I'd like a party in charge whose aims aren't deathly low. "No deal is better than a bad deal" translates to "a very bad deal is better than a bad deal" (i.e. it's utter bollocks), immigration in the tens of thousands is neither achievable nor desirable (i.e. utter bollocks), and-- just fuck these people. To describe them as fantasists would be generous - they're more than likely just liars. They know this is going to catch up with them, which is why we're having this election in the first place, so they can wait five more years for the fallout to blow over.
 

liquidtmd

Banned
The bullshit reporting on it from the BBC in the news probably reaches more people. This morning they were saying that Rudd had stayed on script well and Corbyn hadn't got any attacks in on her. That was it. That was their summing up of the whole thing.

I swear, if there was a vote on the BBC now, I'd vote to shut the fucking thing down.

That's the hillarious thing. You've got the BBC reporting it this way, which is not true, and equally you've got the Daily Fail and a few other sources reporting that the BBC was and is heavily Pro Corbyn??
 

Empty

Member
tories have noticed that they are not inspiring people with their campaign at all

DBN9cMeXUAAyrN-.jpg


http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/thr...pm-encounter/story-30363961-detail/story.html

so now they are re-launching their campaign /again/
Theresa May is to abandon her strategy of attacking Jeremy Corbyn as she urges voters to join her on a “great national mission” to deliver a successful Brexit.

On a visit to the North East on Thursday the Prime Minister will deliver a positive message about the “great things” Britain can do after it leaves the EU.

In an email to voters on Wednesday, Mrs May also said she was “excited about the future” - a marked departure from the “project fear” tactic that has characterised much of the campaign so far.

It will be seen as an admission that the Tories’ largely negative campaign strategy, targeting Jeremy Corbyn’s “weak leadership”, has failed sufficiently to inspire voters.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/theresa-may-abandon-strategy-attacking-jeremy-corbyn/
 
I'm a swing voter, voted Tory last time and now I will be voting Labour.



The strong and stable narrative (and the death knell for May) will be her winning without a majority, that's what this whole election was called for, without it she is dead.

Maybe Growing up in Merseyside it's stamped into you from an early age "VOTE LABOUR"

I could never see the Tories i know ever changing their minds either
 
Meanwhile here's Chris Cook from Newsnight's look at what's going on for the Lib Dems: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40110952

I think that is very fair. The route back to relevance for the LDs is a strong message and winning at council level, with a side of "people will remember our position when Brexit goes south".

The only way we could have bounced this election would have been if Corbyn had done extremely badly. He's done pretty OK, all things considered.
 
5Live are in Sheffield for their Marginal tour, which surprised me because I'd describe it as Labour safe, but they're here for the Hallam seat with Clegg.

Might go and shout stuff in the background of 5Live.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
5Live are in Sheffield for their Marginal tour, which surprised me because I'd describe it as Labour safe, but they're here for the Hallam seat with Clegg.

Might go and shout stuff in the background of 5Live.

I'm listening, I've got a long train today. Better hear you!
 

Mr. Sam

Member
I think that is very fair. The route back to relevance for the LDs is a strong message and winning at council level, with a side of "people will remember our position when Brexit goes south".

I think, considering how people kind of sort of not really took into account Charles Kennedy's position on Iraq, this is wishful thinking. In fact, I think Brexit will have a lot of common with Iraq in so much as, when it goes south, collective amnesia will take over and it'll suddenly be very difficult to find people who were in favour of it.
 
My colleagues have said the challenge for 5live has to be being voxpopped. I'll just sing the Nick Clegg 'Sorry' song.

I'll see if they're still around if I take an early lunch.
 
I think, considering how people kind of sort of not really took into account Charles Kennedy's position on Iraq, this is wishful thinking. In fact, I think Brexit will have a lot of common with Iraq in so much as, when it goes south, collective amnesia will take over and it'll suddenly be very difficult to find people who were in favour of it.

And because all the pensioners who wanted a return to 'the good 'ole days' will be dead by then. :p
 

CCS

Banned
I think, considering how people kind of sort of not really took into account Charles Kennedy's position on Iraq, this is wishful thinking. In fact, I think Brexit will have a lot of common with Iraq in so much as, when it goes south, collective amnesia will take over and it'll suddenly be very difficult to find people who were in favour of it.

On that note: I saw an article a while ago pointing out that roughly half of the population supported the Iraq war at the time, but in a recent pool only a third of people said they'd supported it. Don't remember if that was adjusted to include only people who were adults back in 2003, but it's am interesting case of a large number of people rewriting what their views were.
 

Maledict

Member
On that note: I saw an article a while ago pointing out that roughly half of the population supported the Iraq war at the time, but in a recent pool only a third of people said they'd supported it. Don't remember if that was adjusted to include only people who were adults back in 2003, but it's am interesting case of a large number of people rewriting what their views were.

This is unfortunately really common. It's why post election analysis is always tricky, because people 'remember' differently to how they actually voted. We're a much simpler and dumber species than we like to think we are...
 

King_Moc

Banned
On that note: I saw an article a while ago pointing out that roughly half of the population supported the Iraq war at the time, but in a recent pool only a third of people said they'd supported it. Don't remember if that was adjusted to include only people who were adults back in 2003, but it's am interesting case of a large number of people rewriting what their views were.

I definitely remember the polls saying people were against it before the war, but then swung in favour of it after it started, likely in an effort to 'support the troops'.

Edit: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/jan/21/uk.iraq2
 
The Economist has, after a fashion, come out for the Lib Dems:

http://www.economist.com/news/leade...lectionthemiddlehasfallenoutofbritishpolitics

It is a dismal choice for this newspaper, which sees little evidence of our classical, free-market liberal values in either of the main parties. We believe that, as it leaves the EU, Britain should remain open: to business, investment and people. Brexit will do least damage if seen as an embrace of the wider world, not simply a rejection of Europe. We want a government that maintains the closest ties with the EU while honouring the referendum, and that uses Brexit to reassert the freedom of Britain’s markets and society—the better to keep dynamic firms and talented people around. In their different ways, both Labour and the Tories fail this test.

No party passes with flying colours. But the closest is the Liberal Democrats. Brexit is the main task of the next government and they want membership of the single market and free movement. (Their second referendum would probably come to nothing, as most voters are reconciled to leaving the EU.) They are more honest than the Tories about the need to raise taxes for public services; and more sensible than Labour, spreading the burden rather than leaning only on high-earners. Unlike Labour they would reverse the Tories’ most regressive welfare cuts. They are on the right side of other issues: for devolution of power from London, reform of the voting system and the House of Lords, and regulation of markets for drugs and sex.

Like the other parties, they want to fiddle with markets by, say, giving tenants first dibs on buying their property. Their environmentalism is sometimes knee-jerk, as in their opposition to new runways and fracking. The true liberals in the party jostle with left-wingers, including Tim Farron, who is leading them to a dreadful result. But against a backward-looking Labour Party and an inward-looking Tory party about to compound its historic mistake over Brexit, they get our vote.

Backing the open, free-market centre is not just directed towards this election. We know that this year the Lib Dems are going nowhere. But the whirlwind unleashed by Brexit is unpredictable. Labour has been on the brink of breaking up since Mr Corbyn took over. If Mrs May polls badly or messes up Brexit, the Tories may split, too. Many moderate Conservative and Labour MPs could join a new liberal centre party—just as parts of the left and right have recently in France. So consider a vote for the Lib Dems as a down-payment for the future. Our hope is that they become one element of a party of the radical centre, essential for a thriving, prosperous Britain.
 

Coffinhal

Member
This is unfortunately really common. It's why post election analysis is always tricky, because people 'remember' differently to how they actually voted. We're a much simpler and dumber species than we like to think we are...

It is done the day of the election, not 15 years later. I don't know how good are pollsters in the UK but if you have the proper sample and questions, you can make a pretty good analysis of the electorate on election day.

And yeah, people forget when this isn't (and wasn't) an important topic in their lives (+ polls bias)
 

CCS

Banned
Currently in a talk by Prof John Curtice, if anyone has a question they want me to ask fire them at me and I'll try and ask one!
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Currently in a talk by Prof John Curtice, if anyone has a question they want me to ask fire them at me and I'll try and ask one!

When's he returning my text message?
 
Is there a danger too many people decide to vote Labour in seats where they're a distant third and Tories win it anyway? I want Labour to win the election but am voting Lib Dem to keep Tories out. Worried a lot of people voting Labour may be doing so where it doesn't make a difference. Fucking shit electoral system.
 
Currently in a talk by Prof John Curtice, if anyone has a question they want me to ask fire them at me and I'll try and ask one!

Ask him how his exit poll will work if he's doing one this time, and if it will be done differently to how it was done in 2015.
 
Currently in a talk by Prof John Curtice, if anyone has a question they want me to ask fire them at me and I'll try and ask one!

Ask about why he thinks there's such a big gender split in the vote among under 40s while virtually none among over 40s (roughly), and if he can think of a time in British politics when that happened before.
 

CCS

Banned
Ask him how his exit poll will work if he's doing one this time, and if it will be done differently to how it was done in 2015.

Ask about why he thinks there's such a big gender split in the vote among under 40s while virtually none among over 40s (roughly), and if he can think of a time in British politics when that happened before.

Will try and get at least one of these asked :)
 

Daffy Duck

Member
Is there a danger too many people decide to vote Labour in seats where they're a distant third and Tories win it anyway? I want Labour to win the election but am voting Lib Dem to keep Tories out. Worried a lot of people voting Labour may be doing so where it doesn't make a difference. Fucking shit electoral system.

I'm voting Labour in a Tory safe seat, voting anything else is just as pointless.
 
I'm voting Labour in a Tory safe seat, voting anything else is just as pointless.

That's cool; I live in a lib dem marginal (think it was only 1500 votes separating them and tory), and while I want to vote for Labour that would be pretty dangerous. Hope enough people are aware of the benefits of tactical voting.
 

Daffy Duck

Member
That's cool; I live in a lib dem marginal (think it was only 1500 votes separating them and tory), and while I want to vote for Labour that would be pretty dangerous. Hope enough people are aware of the benefits of tactical voting.

I doubt it, the vast majority of people don't seem to even understand basic voting.
 

CCS

Banned
Huw: the exit poll methodology is entirely unchanged, in part due to how close this election is to the last one, meaning polling stations haven't moved around much.
 

CCS

Banned
Other tidbits:

Labour match up pretty well to the Tories on approval for individual policies, but people say that overall the Tories have better policies.

Theresa May has a much more insecure position within her party than Jeremy Corbyn does. Does not think she'd survive in the scenario of YouGOV being correct.

Chinese whispers lead him to believe that the Tories' internals agree with the overall polling consensus.

Labour should focus on domestic policy, Tories need it to be on Brexit, immigration and leadership (slightly obvious but worth repeating).
 

empyrean

Member
Other tidbits:

Labour match up pretty well to the Tories on approval for individual policies, but people say that overall the Tories have better policies.

Theresa May has a much more insecure position within her party than Jeremy Corbyn does. Ford not think she'd survive in the scenario of YouGOV being correct.

Chinese whispers lead him to believe that the Tories' internals agree with the overall polling consensus.

Labour should focus on domestic policy, Tories need it to be on Brexit, immigration and leadership (slightly obvious but worth repeating).

Did he say what the overall polling consensus was? I.e. Do they think it's closer to 15 points or 3 points? We have quite a range atm
 

CCS

Banned
Also, to make Huw happy: Lib Dems are vulnerable in most of their seats, but have a good chance of picking up seats in London, a few in Scotland, maybe OXWAB and Cambridge too.
 

CCS

Banned
Did he say what the overall polling consensus was? I.e. Do they think it's closer to 15 points or 3 points? We have quite a range atm

The average he's using has it as 9. He pointed out that a majority is very sensitive around that point:

7pp win is a majority of about 12

9pp win is a majority of about 35

13pp win is a majority of about 65
 

Audioboxer

Member
Was handed a local Labour leaflet this morning. Seems like my local MP enjoys that "Tory like" approach to telling Nicola to get back to her day job!

ZpDN1Rc.jpg


Scottish Labour yet again trying to chase hard Tories, whereas they'd have more chance trying to court soft-SNP voters.
 

Moosichu

Member
Was handed a local Labour leaflet this morning. Seems like my local MP enjoys that "Tory like" approach to telling Nicola to get back to her day job!

ZpDN1Rc.jpg


Scottish Labour yet again trying to chase hard Tories, whereas they'd have more chance trying to court soft-SNP voters.

Is that more to protect their vote in England more than anything?
 

Audioboxer

Member
Is that more to protect their vote in England more than anything?

Possibly, it is a routine attack of the Conservatives to drum up fear that Labour "support" another indyref. They don't. Never will.

It's more about how desperation is leading Scottish Labour to try and outdo Tory rhetoric and it rarely works. Labour got wiped out up here and they do not seem to realise a lot of centre-left leaning Scotland went SNP, and it's those people they need to try and win back. Many of them "like" Sturgeon while possibly not being all that sure of Scottish independence. A lot of it is the youth as well who may well be down with the idea of it, but they're still young and young people can be swayed more easily than old. If Labour continues to want to appear as Tories in Scotland two things will happen. Actual support for Tories will increase as Labour appear weak (in the minds of Unionists), so Labour voters to Conservative. Then the SNP voters who left Labour will continue to remain SNP voters as none of us wants Tory-lite either.

tldr; You can attempt to court people back without appearing as Tory-lite whilst also still towing the party stance on the Union.
 

Maledict

Member
I doubt it. Scottish labour is pro union, so I don't really see how a leaflet delivered in Scotland expressing that view is aimed at English voters.
 

hodgy100

Member
Is it addressed to you still? Not sure what you're supposed to do in those circumstances. If you can't get it to its rightful owner destroy it?

Yeah its addressed to me.

Bin it?

I'm guessing these things have some sort of tracking info on them? I don't think you want the possibility of being flagged up as committing some sort of electoral fraud by submitting more than one vote.

And, y'know.... democracy and stuff.

well i'm worried my first one won't be counted for some reason now :S
 
Also, to make Huw happy: Lib Dems are vulnerable in most of their seats, but have a good chance of picking up seats in London, a few in Scotland, maybe OXWAB and Cambridge too.

Cheers - I agree on this. The hope is that a very stiff focus on seats we can win will make the difference.
 

Theonik

Member
Upcoming speech by May is now stating that this election is about Brexit.

They're desperate.
If it's about Brexit and getting a mandate on that perhaps she shouldn't have put out a new manifesto but instead given a plan on Brexit for people to vote on? Funny that.
 

Chinner

Banned
If it's about Brexit and getting a mandate on that perhaps she shouldn't have put out a new manifesto but instead given a plan on Brexit for people to vote on? Funny that.
Manifesto backfired. They're backtracking to vagueness as that what worked previously.
 
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