This is my stance. I want it to be true so badly, but damn if I just know I'm going to be disappointed come Friday.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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This is my stance. I want it to be true so badly, but damn if I just know I'm going to be disappointed come Friday.
What about shy AND undecided?! Who knows where these wildcards will go!!
Yeah, for me, any net loss for the Tories will be worth celebrating a little rather than being down. This was supposed to be them doubling down their power and if it backfires, at least there should be a little reaction to that.
Good thing Abbott wouldn't be negotiating then.
Also what do you mean by "keep the Brexit deal at bay"?
Fernando Fernandez
Member
Don't worry about Diane, worry about Sir Keir Starmer negotiating a deal
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-hold-the-government-to-account-a7771381.html
I don't really trust Boris Johnson to negotiate a deal. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything though since neither would be no matter what happens (unless he somehow slimes his way into the top job if May goes). No idea what the "Brexit at bay" means. Sounds like you want to delay it or something?
Hot Coldman
Banned
I think the youth vote is going to be impossible to predict. After all, how many of them actually bothered to register? Hopefully "all of fucking them" but you know, it's effort.
Audioboxer
Member
I want to believe. Shy Corbz save the day as the youth get out in UK wide historic numbers.
Like corbyn really needs something earth shattering at this point to win. Like he really needs something to release negative against the tories that can swing voters like crazy to him at this point. So far nothing has been that earth shattering in this election camapign.
SlipperyFishes
Banned
I think he means any deal is a bad deal and we should have no deal
That's the irony behind it all, isn't it. She called the snap election to get a "clear and strong mandate" for the Brexit negotiations. According to the polls she's getting everything but.
Sounds like that but I'll give the benefit of the doubt until they clarify
travisbickle
Member
How is Corbyn an enabler, he has no power?
Margaret Thatcher was the enabler, Theresa May is the enabler.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Do all these polls suggest that Tories won't have a strong majority?
How would government work if Labour is only 5 percent less?
SuperEpicMan
Banned
I never suggested anything earth shattering lol, it is more that I am expecting a similar result to Trump wherein we wake up on Friday morning and are surprised by the result.
Following on from the EU Referendum, it seemed to become apparent that many people treat their vote as a protest vote. Many people seemed to be disillusioned with politics, and it was noticed that income inequality and poverty boosted Leave votes (link). One year on and things haven't really changed for people, food bank usage is higher than ever (link). The NHS is still stretched. Teachers are still collecting money from students at the gates, and more recently we are being frequently attacked by extremists. All of this is giving me the impression that a lot of people are still going to treat this a protest vote. Like Brexit, Corbyn offers a huge change to the status quo, and I am beginning to suspect that come election day, a large chunk of voters will flock to him.
Polls are all over the place. Wonder why British pollsters have such a big margin between each other compared to France or Germany where they are usually 1-3 percent close to each other.
DodgyGeezerFella
Member
My only hope is the youth actually do come out this time, and that there are many shy typically tory voters who like Corbyn's manifesto and will vote for them secretly.
Wishful thinking, but one can hope :/
Wishful thinking, but one can hope :/
KormaChameleon
Member
Pretty much. Just seems like that we are getting billed for democracy by the sound of things.
-Plasma Reus-
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Why are they called shy tories when they lie to pollsters? Shouldn't they be called lying tories?
SlipperyFishes
Banned
I'm glad you cleared that up, but you're wrong and our collective bargaining power as a nation would be Royally fucked if we just said a big fat NOPE.
If we're offered a worse deal than "no deal" we'll obviously choose no deal. No deal is literally the worst outcome that we might accept, and the aim should be to reach a better deal than that.
"No deal is better than a bad deal" is a completely meaningless soundbite. No deal IS a bad deal.
Graphics Horse
Member
Hopefully a stupid question but in a hung parliament are there any in the PLP who might prefer to prop up the Tories rather than giving Corbyn a shot in an effort to force him out?
SlipperyFishes
Banned
Because Murdoch has such a big presence in our press and some of those influence polling patterns.
To do so would be career suicide, and basically suicide for the Labour Party, so no, there's no chance.
How would a worse deal than no deal even look like? Getting annexed by jean claude juncker?
That would be redundant
ferrasvansen
Member
All this talk of shy Tories is kinda weird in 2017, given how toxic Corbyn is in many parts of England i would have thought in this election it would be shy Labour dominating poll talk.
Looks like they did that in 2015 too
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...andidate-tells-sheffield-hallam-to-vote-clegg
Like labour needs an Alberta Canada 2012 provincial election type of polling error to win at this point.
Thornton Reed
Member
holy shit. Morgan forgot he doesn't work for the Daily Mirror anymore
Captain AHat
Member
If (and I pray they do) things go REALLY badly for Overlord May and her band of merry Assclowns, can I suggest that 'bye Felicia' be replaced 'bye Teresa' ?
I'm just sad that the MP for my area - Ben 'I'm an ignorant cunt' Wallace - has been the MP since forever and is very unlikely to be unseated.
Although I'm generally Lib Dem, I'll be voting Labour here cos (a) they are most likely to at least TRY and unseat him (don't see it happening though. ) and (b) I quite like Jezza and what he appears to stand for generally. Do prefer the Lib Dem view on Brexit though so I'm torn.
I'm just sad that the MP for my area - Ben 'I'm an ignorant cunt' Wallace - has been the MP since forever and is very unlikely to be unseated
. Although I'm generally Lib Dem, I'll be voting Labour here cos (a) they are most likely to at least TRY and unseat him (don't see it happening though
. ) and (b) I quite like Jezza and what he appears to stand for generally. Do prefer the Lib Dem view on Brexit though so I'm torn.All our pensioners returning from Spain, while a huge chunk of NHS staff get sent back to Europe. Or any other batshit crazy Tory fantasy.
I don't think shy Tories are a good explanation of anything. As far as I understand they were only observed in 1992 (25 years ago!) and the more recent polling errors where attributed to other reasons (I don't remember what those reasons were).
If (and I pray they do) things go REALLY badly for Overlord May and her band of merry Assclowns, can I suggest that 'bye Felicia' be replaced 'bye Teresa' ?
I'm just sad that the MP for my area - Ben 'I'm an ignorant cunt' Wallace - has been the MP since forever and is very unlikely to be unseated
Although I'm generally Lib Dem, I'll be voting Labour here cos (a) they are most likely to at least TRY and unseat him (don't see it happening though
I've just had a look at your constituency and, while there's not much point voting Labour, there's no point voting Lib Dem.
Captain AHat
Member
Good isn't it .... ;_;.....
RedSparrows
Member
What you say is logical, but remember that pollsters don't actually know for certain why Tories get more votes than the polls suggest, at the end of the day they are asking a few thousand people and extrapolating that to the result for the entire country. There's no voter breakdown or anything that would let them properly scrutinise the vote after it's happened, all we know for certain is that the Tories have outperformed the poll average on 12 of the last 15 general elections. Everything else is just (well educated) speculation.
Psychotext
Member
Sky interview with former metropolitan police officer...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvJYDSL5j1U
Fair play to him for sticking to his opinions. Flat out calling the government liars on air takes some balls.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvJYDSL5j1U
Fair play to him for sticking to his opinions. Flat out calling the government liars on air takes some balls.
If (and I pray they do) things go REALLY badly for Overlord May and her band of merry Assclowns, can I suggest that 'bye Felicia' be replaced 'bye Teresa' ?
I'm just sad that the MP for my area - Ben 'I'm an ignorant cunt' Wallace - has been the MP since forever and is very unlikely to be unseated
Although I'm generally Lib Dem, I'll be voting Labour here cos (a) they are most likely to at least TRY and unseat him (don't see it happening though
I grew up in Eric Pickles constituency, I don't think any man has ever looked or acted more like he knew he'd never lose an election. I feel your pain.
Theonik
Member
We call those people tories.
Thornton Reed
Member
just finished that Piers Morgan interview
it was savage. We need more of this. The bloody Tories haven't had their feet held to the fire enough.
I'm shocked it was Piers bloody Morgan though
it was savage. We need more of this. The bloody Tories haven't had their feet held to the fire enough.
I'm shocked it was Piers bloody Morgan though
For anyone who loves to be disappointed, you could also spin this as "the losing party have outperformed the poll average in 9 of the last 14 general elections", which would suggest a hung parliament (assuming Labour still have less than Conservatives).
(According to the 538 table posted on the last page).
The Conservatives are definitely on the back foot over police funding at least. Probably not in a big enough way to make a difference to the vote, however.
Man, if this election had a bit more runway this could turn into an even bigger catastrophic mess for the Conservatives.
Man, if this election had a bit more runway this could turn into an even bigger catastrophic mess for the Conservatives.
Jezbollah
Member
Bugger. I have a link somewhere that translate polling percentages into seats.
A Tory 45%, Labour 35% translates into roughly Con 350, Labour 220 if I remember right.
(it's the figures I think we'll see on Thursday IMO)
Steven Hilton, Cameron's "policy guru", is saying May should resign, not seek re-election, due to her failures:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hester-westminster-terror-david-a7772931.html
https://twitter.com/SteveHiltonx/status/871611939310379008
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hester-westminster-terror-david-a7772931.html
https://twitter.com/SteveHiltonx/status/871611939310379008
SuperEpicMan
Banned
I have just read about Alberta, but I am not sure what your point is. Recent polls show labour at best, neck and neck, and at worst the tories getting a majority. So yes, the polls would be off if Labour win.
Theonik
Member
As predicted the party is preparing to distance themselves from May as much as possible to avoid contagion. She won't get ousted afterwards unless she fails spectacularly but her days are numbered and people will be looking to crucify her over Brexit and there will be new Tory leadership in time for the 2022 GE.
Then again Tories are crazy.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The latter have far better voting systems, but the answer really is just "shy Tories". A big chunk of the Tory vote is just unwilling to admit they'll vote Tory.
National vote share does impact short money, so it's not true to say that there's absolutely no point in voting for a party.
JonathanEx
Member
Steve Hilton is also though a bit... well, this feature piece with him sums it up.
Our polls normally herd towards a common point, but 2015 broke them.
The polling companies are essentially split into two groups, one group does aggressive turnout weighting based a number of factors (the previous election being the uppermost), the other group doesn't. If you remove the turnout weighting the polls are relatively consistent.
There's also differences in how polls treat don't knows those tend to be based on how you voted in the previous election and your opinion of the party leader.
Personally, while I think there should be some turnout weighting, I think most of it should be in the actual initial sample (although that has it's own set of problems), I do get the feeling that ICM and ComRes might be fighting the last election. I think Corbyn will have some positive effect on the under 34 turnout and they'll be closer to 2010 levels than 2015. After all some of the proposition that Corbyn is offering re tuition fees is pretty similar to Cleggmania. Although I don't think that effect will do more than just limit the Tory margin of victory, I fear that in targeted marginals the Tories will outperform their national polling.
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