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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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I said I wouldn't stay up with both Brexit and the U.S elections...
Ended up staying up all night for both, and drinking alcohol started at 3am (GMT) for both for me when things started seeming sliding to hell
This weather has me gloomy.
If it's like this on Thursday that will depress turnout and the Tories will walk it.
But as the rest of that article goes on to explain, it's not that simple.
Also covered in the above article, sampling, turnout and modelling differences between the pollsters.
It's good that they're all different (rather than herded together like last time) as one of them will be "right" and the others can learn from that.
If it's like this on Thursday that will depress turnout and the Tories will walk it.
Yeah anyone getting excited just a reminder this is from the fivethirtyeight article:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
But as the rest of that article goes on to explain, it's not that simple.
Also covered in the above article, sampling, turnout and modelling differences between the pollsters.
It's good that they're all different (rather than herded together like last time) as one of them will be "right" and the others can learn from that.
CarlisleDavid1979
Member
Won't be staying up at all this time. I'll just look at the exit poll and that'll do.
SporeCrawler
Member
In other words sone pollsters assume young voters will give no shitOur polls normally herd towards a common point, but 2015 broke them.
The polling companies are essentially split into two groups, one group does aggressive turnout weighting based a number of factors (the previous election being the uppermost), the other group doesn't. If you remove the turnout weighting the polls are relatively consistent.
There's also differences in how polls treat don't knows those tend to be based on how you voted in the previous election and your opinion of the party leader.
Theonik
Member
I don't think this is the full picture. In truth people are still trying to figure this out. But. Once you take away weighing that is entirely pollsters guessing at the problem, samples taken around he same time seem more or less consistent across pollsters accounting for margins for error. If pollsters wished to herd by taking similar punts as their colleagues they would all be about the same.
But FPTP makes predicting elections a bit harder because the distribution of voters is more important and polling models do very little in working that out other than applying uniform swings using the last election and polls.
I've been kinda thinking about this a lot. I should take some time to write a paper at some point. Too busy though.
It also affects the positions of other major parties in the election the Greens have done a fantastic job in influencing labour on environmental issues for instance.
Thornton Reed
Member
blistering attack on the government from former police inspector
http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ian-payne/striking-interview-with-former-police-inspector/
and this was before the attack on Saturday. The British public need to wake up and listen to this.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ian-payne/striking-interview-with-former-police-inspector/
and this was before the attack on Saturday. The British public need to wake up and listen to this.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Just to give you an idea btw of what pollsters are up against, a large chunk of the Tory vote will happily tell a pollster "oh, I've not made up my mind yet". The pollster will say "are you leaning anyway?" The voter says "no."
In the back of their head they're almost certainly thinking "I'll make up my mind on the day." But what they're really just going to do is walk into the voting booth and vote Tory, because that's what they have done for the past five elections.
In the back of their head they're almost certainly thinking "I'll make up my mind on the day." But what they're really just going to do is walk into the voting booth and vote Tory, because that's what they have done for the past five elections.
Randy Lanzarote
Member
This election has been a bit of a rollercoaster, and I'm not sure if June 8th is going to be an end to it.
I look forward to reading some 'behind the scenes' gossip on the Conservative campaign, because it's been an absolute car crash.
I look forward to reading some 'behind the scenes' gossip on the Conservative campaign, because it's been an absolute car crash.
Audioboxer
Member
2~4am UK time is when you usually have a good picture. If it's truly tight 5~7am. Basically, it's a through the night process.
Thornton Reed
Member
exit polls at 10. Fairly accurate
Gurgelhals
Member
If it's anything like 2015 we'll get first projections at 10 PM GMT (which, in contrast to the polls, were quite accurate last time) but final results for all the constituencies won't be in until the morning after.
Audioboxer
Member
We'll find out this GE. First time in a while the Tories have had such a blunder for the iron-clad "old person vote".
IRA Corbyn vs Saudi May.
I think I'll vote UKIP.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The exit poll should tell us all we need to know. I think. If the poll shows Labour behind by what's predicted by ComRes, for example - 10 points - then I'd advise going and getting very drunk. OTOH if the exit poll backs Yougov, we get to watch the Tories go into meltdown, and that would be far too good an evening to waste being blotto.
Theonik
Member
There is probably also people who know/think of the Tories as the 'Nasty Party' and so are embarrassed to admit voting for them in public but very much do so at the polls. Not sure how big that effect is though many people called new labour 'The Conservatives without the Guilt' so maybe there is some truth in that assessment?
This, btw, is why Theresa is so hated by the parliamentary party. Even though they agree with the sentiment she expressed in 2002, the fact is that phrase has been used as a stick to beat them with ever since and still gets mentioned even today. It's seen as one of the most idiotic political acts of self harm in recent memory.
Huw_Dawson
Member
There might be something in this policing number line. Could do some very late-day damage to the Tories if "Tory cuts = more terror" becomes voter logic.
My plan is to watch old episodes of The Simpsons to calm my nerves, go to bed, wake up in the morning, have an anxiety attack looking at the results (as is tradition on election results mornings) and collect myself in time to go to work.
The only reason Paul Nuttall isn't linked with terrorists is that they have no idea who he is.
Bookies seem fairly locked in relation to the Conservative vote share
I might have a flutter on >50%.
Audioboxer
Member
JonathanEx
Member
I'll be getting the vodka in.
In other news, I know there were moments of it being quite heated earlier on, but I've really enjoyed the fun of this thread during the election and know it'll be great fun for results night as the madness exists.
I don't know how much it'll cut through - but the fact this is even on the cards is fascinating. After Manchester my initial thought was 'oh well she's seen as strict and harsh on things, people will want that', but it seems to be that it's catching up on her. Conventional wisdom would say that she'd have benefitted hugely from these events - and even if she hasn't been harmed, she hasn't gained.
Mr.Fletcher
Member
I think May gave a strong speech, but is struggling to bat away questions over policing numbers. The BBC is showing both the Conservative and Labour anti-terror plans - there's no contest.
What suicide bomber is going to care about a longer jail sentence?
What suicide bomber is going to care about a longer jail sentence?
My point is that it would require a polling error about that large for labour to win this election.The polling error for that election was like 12 to 13 points.Labour at the moment needs to win the popular vote possibly by 2 to 4 points to get more seats then the tories.It's unlikely polls in the UK overall will be off by a double digit margin on Thursday.
Even if they weren't planning to be dead they'd probably be pleased, more time to radicalise the other prisoners.
Which is correct based on the previous election when the turnout was 43%, but it was 52% in 2010. So it's not set in stone that it'll be as low as 2015, or Iraq war election.
If something so short lived and transparent as Cleggmania can boost turnout in that demo, you've got to think that Corbyn who is offering a far more comprehensive package for that demo is capable of matching it at least. YouGov's proposed number for 18-34 isn't far off that 54% (if I remember correctly)
It's not that youth never votes, they're rarely given a personal reason to. Most manifestos are targetted older.
A looooot of people read the Daily Mail.
The pollsters are pretty decent at weeding out the shy Tories these days. The party leader and previous vote screens do a good job. The pollsters themselves didn't think it was the issue in 2015, it was more unrepresentative samples to begin with. They think they've worked that out this time, but with so many more polls being online I'm not sure.
Huw_Dawson
Member
And both Labour and the LD's manifestos are targeted at the young. Labour want to scrap tuition fees, LDs want rent-to-buy and legal cannabis.
So the question is: is this a 1992/7 turnout or not.
Kmag, my understanding is that the more skeptical pollsters weight according to past vote/leader preference but Yougov/Survation don't?
Theonik
Member
iirc YouGov is weighing for between 2015 and EU Referendum turnout.
I believe YouGov and Survation do it all at the sample level. The benefits of having such large pools, for whom they have lots of information on
Wasn't that Clegg's seat? Didn't Labour win it last time?
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
God LDs have done such a bad job with their messaging. Those two policies are good and should be appealing, but I bet nobody knows them. I pay attention and I'd forgotten.
Jezbollah
Member
Nope. Clegg is still there - and he's in danger of being The Portillo Moment in this GE IMO.
No, but they came very close.
Huw_Dawson
Member
No, Hallam was held by about 5% - something like 40-35 or 35-30. The Tories got about 12% and it's a wealthy area.
I'm not sure if Hallam is a naturally Labour area - it depends very much where Labour's coalition of voters came from for the past election. I do know it's not being treated as a major loss risk internally, but it's hard to judge without being in the constituency. Surprisingly enough, the LDs are net popular with young voters (I think we polled +5 in that demo in the latest poll) - I'm not sure if there's the same urge amongst young voters in Hallam - or indeed in Leeds North West - to kick out their pot-loving Remainer MPs. But it's definitely possible - there's no such thing as a safe LD seat.
The BBC is the overwhelming source of news for the masses, the BBC bases its election coverage far more on being "representative" than being "fair" to all parties. Then add in that every paper in the country is either Labour or Tory. It's damn near impossible to mount a national campaign when the press wants it to be a two-horse race.
Thornton Reed
Member
they're going all in on this
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
The BBC has long been poor for its representative coverage, long over-representing UKIP and under-representing LDs and Greens. Can't argue with that. But Farron also can't get the message out, he's been too dogged by personal things.
Cannot believe we have gotten to the stage of Corbyn calling May to resign for national security reasons. This is absolutely brilliant.
Jezbollah
Member
I think that there is a danger of a lot of people rolling their eyes at this.
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