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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Monty Mole
Member
Is there real historical evidence that people are less likely to vote if it's raining? Or is it a myth? If real, fuck those people! Use an umbrella if you're worried about getting your hair wet.
Fernando Fernandez
Member
It's Crosbys campaign turned against her. It's marvellous.
He couldn't, he lost his job.
The Manchester bomber and now one of the London attackers were both reported well in advance to our police. Either they failed or they simply don't have the manpower to cover all the work that they need to do. I would guess the latter. Falls directly to May herself and her party.
If labour plays this right it could really hurt her just before the election
Psychotext
Member
I can really only see it being manpower. You imagine they've been told to prioritise very specific information and ignore anything else.
BossDarkseid
Member
It's probably a case of Failing because in some fashion they were understaffed etc.
Its not to say things would be a whole lot different pre-cuts, based on how many people they theorize you need to efficiently and accurately surveil someone, but the job has undoubtedly been made harder which leads to mistakes which typically leads to tragedy.
TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared
Member
I hope May and her party gets rightly dragged over the coals for the police cuts/lack of funding. I watched that thing on BBC last week about policing in London and apparently firearms officers are now volunteers with no extra pay? So her saying 'we recruited more firearms officers' basically means jackshit.
Or maybe they were investigated fully and were found to have committed no offence that you can arrest someone for?
Randy Lanzarote
Member
It'd be interesting to see internal polling figures, as I think this is what would be driving strategies at the moment.
Based on recent events, I would guess that Cons are on for a victory, but its nowhere near the number they were hoping for. If May doesn't reach 350 seats I think she knows her days are numbered.
I think the days of her dreaming of a 400+ majority, giving her Iron Lady-type status within the party and able to do what she pleases are long gone.
Based on recent events, I would guess that Cons are on for a victory, but its nowhere near the number they were hoping for. If May doesn't reach 350 seats I think she knows her days are numbered.
I think the days of her dreaming of a 400+ majority, giving her Iron Lady-type status within the party and able to do what she pleases are long gone.
https://twitter.com/AFHStewart/status/871336931480805376
This guy is talking about how bad May was as a home sec. He use to be a Met police officer
Spuck-uk
Banned
It's also a huge punch right in the 'Strong and Stables', on an area they claim to be the stronger party.
They really must be wishing the election had been a few weeks earlier.
So far their response seems half ignore but half lie. There has been some pretty epic spinning going on from various Tories today.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I'm half expecting Corbs to start telling May to delete her Twitter account or something. We've gone full US.
The FT had an article over the weekend with Labour sources saying they were braced for significant losses in the Midlands and the North. Who knows if that's accurate anymore though.
BossDarkseid
Member
Probably nothing now but if it is persistently brought up then pressure will grow to change things as there will ever be the argument that costs are being cut in some areas and not in others and policing will become one of those areas people get more passionate about.
Hot Coldman
Banned
I don't think anyone expected those suspects to be immediately arrested, this isn't Minority Report. The concern here is that no-one kept an eye on them - or rather, the security services didn't have the capacity to keep a good eye on them. At least that's my reading of it all.
Yup. If Labour can really spread this message out there over the next few days it could make a real difference.
Damn, this election is exciting.
I have spoken to social service hotlines many times in previous jobs about the sheer abuse that I witnessed as a worker with Leicestershire County Council. Junkie parents on a heroin jag with new borns left to fend for themselves, parents disappearing on bi-polar travails through the UK rail network.
They didn't act. Not because they felt they shouldn't, but because they can't. It's just too stretched. if they acted on everything, then the whole of the country would be investigating illegal activity.
It may well be the same with this. No excuses. This is reality.
BrokenIcarus
Member
Chances of a hung parliament? Socio-liberal coalition?
Huw_Dawson
Member
So the first thing that happens is someone goes to the Queen and says "I have the largest support of MPs in the house, so I should run the government and pick a cabinet."
The Queen, in this instance, takes off her glasses and says "wait, you're not Theresa", as May has been bundled off into a van heading to live in David Cameron's overpriced shed, never to be seen again.
So let's say it's either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn.
Johnson has two parties guaranteed at his back - the UUP and the DUP. He also will probably have the independent Ulster unionist, the Lady Sylvia Hermon, willing to back him. That makes, in our Yougov scenario and my loose predictions for NI, something like 313 MPs.
Corbyn has exactly four parties I could see cheerily agreeing to him as PM - Plaid, the SNP, the SDLP and the Greens.
So the entire situation would come down to the Alliance member, if Naomi Long makes it back in, and the Lib Dem MPs, and therefore, against all probability, Tim Farron.
Tim Farron chooses the PM.
On the one hand, he can agree to do nothing, as the party's position would be. No deals! Boris Johnson becomes PM.
On another hand, he could - and he is not going to do this - say "well, I always said it was only with May's Conservatives..." at which point Paddy Ashdown runs into his front kitchen with a chainsaw.
On the other hand, he could say "the public voted the Tories out, and the public get their wish" and back Corbyn - thus breaking a direct promise.
On the other hand, Farron could say "well I want to be PM, so I say Labour and the SNP should back ME!"
More seriously, it would come down to which coalition had the largest minority of MPs, and the LDs/Alliance might well just decide independently if they'll back a bill or not until whoever is PM decides "sod this" and gets a new GE.
Hot Coldman
Banned
I can't really feel that way given I think the horrific business in Manchester and London has given a not-insignificant amount of momentum to Labour's campaign - especially now police cuts are the hot issue.
Like obviously it's pushing things in the direction I'd prefer to see but I'd rather no-one had to die and that to make that happen? Bittersweet doesn't quite cover it, ha.
Randy Lanzarote
Member
I believe that the Grauniad also had an article up early last week saying something similar, that public polls were a lot closer to what internal polling was showing, also making reference to Midlands/North.
Which would explain why Corbyn is really going on the offensive in these last few days; last roll of the dice and all.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Huw that fantasy even beats out your earlier one where you had Tim "grinning from the opposition benches". You've got some imagination I'll give you that!
Sodding_Gamer
Member
I think people who would roll their eyes at this would be people who have already made up their mind to be fair.
This election really is an interesting one. I've never followed politics this much in my life. 26 years old and I've felt so jaded on the subject for most of my adult/teenage life until now.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I do try.
It's actually based on the Yougov prediction, not anything I'm dreaming up. If Yougov were right, I'd peg it on Farron to be the kingmaker.
I think the ComRes/ICM polling is closer to the truth. Tory tide, good majority for them, Corbyn looks bad, Farron looks bad, Sturgeon looks bad.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Hope is a lie, I expect things to swing back to the tories a little as all the shy ones come out of hiding again like the cowardly toads they are.
Theonik
Member
You do realise the government pays a large portion of this tuition and all that 'increased tuition' actually means is a reduction in the amount of tuition grants the government provides. And you do realise that only a small subset of people will ever pay their tuition loans back. Hell the IFS estimates that the current loans system still requires the taxpayer to subsidise at least 43.3% of tuition. There is huge unknowns in all of these estimates though and actual earning distributions of grads might differ. We simply have no idea what the long term cost of the new (current) system actually is. There are realistic scenarios where we will already be subsidising some 70% of the money.
Abolishing tuition also has wider economic benefits depending on whether it leads to more high-earning graduates paying more tax on a new tax system. As well as alleviating the tax burden on lower paid graduates which could lead to more money being spent in the real economy.
time to chill out a bit there mate haha
ShemhazaiX
Member
Hung parliament is a possibility, though not a certainty by any means. Coalition government in any capacity is difficult. You MIGHT get Lib Dems backing up Labour, but Labour have said they don't want a coalition. You also have to take into account what SNP would be asking for to create a coalition. We'd be looking at another referendum in exchange, which would also eliminate any hopes of maintaining a left wing government as soon as Scotland leaves the UK.
Hot Coldman
Banned
to be fair, it's pretty shite that the governing party for (basically) 7 years still have this decently-sized voting body that are utterly ashamed of their vote, and yet that has seemingly no chance of stopping or diminishing
Audioboxer
Member
Coalitions aren't going to be formal, the best we can hope for is the parties unifying for voting as a block on sane policy decisions. That Sturgeon has at least said the SNP will do with Labour (case by case voting). Labours biggest problem isn't finding allies, it's how the MP's inside the party decide to vote or turn up. As in, the party is often incredibly divided on big issues.
What happens if Farron does this, Labour/SNP go along with it (lol), and then Lib Dems don't even have enough MPs to fill the cabinet?
Spuck-uk
Banned
Lying about your beliefs is cowardly, is that controversial?
I should have said rats, in the style of Nye
"That is why no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party that inflicted those bitter experiences on me. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.,"
-Aneurin Bevan, architect of the NHS and Bantersaurus.
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Not necessarily - not if they have a big say in the way the entire UK is run got the next 5 years.
Not sure I like the idea of a party with a clear agenda towards to future of Scotland determining the future of England, Wales and NI tbh.
Gurgelhals
Member
Also, the Brexit countdown keeps on ticking...
Imho, the best possible outcome (all considering that we're already in the darkest timeline anyway) would be a reduced Tory majority. Then they'd have to own the mess of their own making, but would have to do so in a weakened state, May would probably not last the year, and the opposition can go full HAM when the already inevitable Brexit fallout really starts to hit.
OverBlood 3
Banned
That's nice compared to how I feel about them.
Tory MP tells hustings: Im really pleased we have foodbanks then threatens to call police on angry disabled voter
https://youtu.be/V8aRD9DNDsI
Stuff like this really winds me up.
Spuck-uk
Banned
The rifts in the tory party were what started this mess in the first place, with the split between pro-europe/business uber alles and the rather more right wing anti-europe lot.
I do try.
It's actually based on the Yougov prediction, not anything I'm dreaming up. If Yougov were right, I'd peg it on Farron to be the kingmaker.
I think the ComRes/ICM polling is closer to the truth. Tory tide, good majority for them, Corbyn looks bad, Farron looks bad, Sturgeon looks bad.
I don't get the sense the Tories think it's as good as ComRes/ICM, I think they think it's closer to the Orb poll. I think the Tories will outperform their poll numbers in terms of seats.
As much as I want the Tories out, I agree with all this
http://whothefuckshouldivotefor.com/
It's using Tactical2017's data, it just has a better presentation.
I like this site.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I'm pegging the Tories at a working majority of 60, personally, I just like living in the happy alternate universe.
Audioboxer
Member
😂😂😂
Stop thundercunts from turbofucking the country. British language, pls. International GAF is horrified.
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