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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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P

Pyroclastic

Banned
Mr. Sam said:
Marginals tend to get canvassed more thoroughly so, if you don't already live in one, you might consider moving.
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the only time the seat hasn't gone to the government in donkey years is 92. it's the type of seat labour should really be winning if they want to make inroads. corbs was scheduled to come here but the visit was cancelled after manchester.
 
S

*Splinter

Member
Maledict said:
Because it's not the police, it's the police union, who are allied with labour and are making a political point,

For one thing, the British crime survey is not an "opinion poll". It's actually seen as the gold standard of crime reporting as it shows far higher levels of crime than recorded crime, so for him to rubbish it is garbage. It's how we know that a lot of crime still goes unreported to the police!
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So does that point to less crime happening, but more of it being reported/recorded?

He also claims the crime survey disregards homicide, sexual offences, "etc". Is that accurate? Did some googling and that seems to be true, but I cant see (or imagine) why it would be so.

Googling also lead me to this, which seems to highlight some hypocrisy here (from both sides I guess).
 
M

Maledict

Member
What I'd say is that arguing over crime statistics is a fools job. They can be made to jump anyway you want, and all governments fiddle with definitions and numbers to tell different stories. For example, Its undeniable than in the past 18 or so months there's been a rise in violence across the board for example - but that may be due to the way the home office now forces police forces to record certain types of violent crime.

It's a real pain because not only are crime statistics often misleading or misreported, but fear of crime is not linked to them at all either so the entire picture of crime and disorder is distorted in our country, and all too often people just reflect the views of the Sun / Mail.
 
L

Lego Boss

Member
Maledict said:
Because it's not the police, it's the police union, who are allied with labour and are making a political point,

For one thing, the British crime survey is not an "opinion poll". It's actually seen as the gold standard of crime reporting as it shows far higher levels of crime than recorded crime, so for him to rubbish it is garbage. It's how we know that a lot of crime still goes unreported to the police!
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Nah, it's a pub quiz
 
M

Maledict

Member
It does annoy me, because there is absolutely a valid discussion to be had on misusing crime statistics. But to call the BcS an opinion poll is pure politics at its worse, of the Daily Mail variety. It's what we use as evidence that crime is a lot higher than official statistics!
 
J

Jackpot

Banned
GarthVaderUK said:
May defended Khan after her speech a couple of times this morning, said he's doing a good job as Mayor of London.
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Such defence.

DBkjxHKXcAE_rKk.jpg:large
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D

Dirtyshubb

Member
Have a watch of bbc election wrap, Owen Jones does a fantastic job of pushing past the BBC and focusing on slashed jobs and Saudi ties.

Now the BBC are telling you how the Tories can take over a specific borough.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
Faddy said:
A review of Theresa May's visit to Scotland

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/...n_a_dark_warehouse_on_the_edge_of_Edinburgh_/
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Jeremy Corbyn she said “would negotiate on a second referendum which he said ‘is absolutely fine by me’. I think he’s going to find out there’s a different view from the Scottish people.”
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Zzzzzz.

A few minutes for questions from the media, met with quick evasive answers usually involving blaming either someone called Corbyn or Sturgeon and then she is gone.

In total the whole ‘event’ lasted around fifteen minutes.
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In Edinburgh today not a voter was met and not a baby was kissed.

You could almost think she was avoiding them.
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Hah, as Trump would say, "sad".
 
J

jelly

Member
I wonder if Tories are still going to nab a few seats from the SNP or has that sort of disappeared recently?

I guess the Brexit thing may still be a strong held view along with no IndyRef2. Has Corbyn helped turn around Labour in Scotland recently?
 
H

hohoXD123

Member
Interesting dynamic between the BBC News interviewer and Owen Jones. He's visibly uncomfortable whenever Jones contrasts May's failings in regards to police and Saudi Arabia with Corbyn's stances.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
jelly said:
I wonder if Tories are still going to nab a few seats from the SNP or has that sort of disappeared recently?

I guess the Brexit thing may still be a strong held view along with no IndyRef2. Has Corbyn helped turn around Labour in Scotland recently?
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They will. The Unionist vote is largely unifying behind the Tories as Labour is deemed ineffective to stop the SNP.

Even Corbyn cannot save Scottish Labour. They're about as useful as UKIP currently is in England. They've lost the bulk of the left-leaning vote to the SNP, and the right-leaning vote is going Conservative. This campaign they've focussed on chasing the right-leaning votes lost to the Tories and that has been incredibly ineffective.

It's pretty much been left up to the rUK to keep the Tories out. Scotland will obviously largely keep the Tories out up here, but sure, SNP votes do not exactly "help" the rUK.
 
U

Ushojax

Should probably not trust the 7-11 security cameras quite so much
hohoXD123 said:
Interesting dynamic between the BBC News interviewer and Owen Jones. He's visibly uncomfortable whenever Jones contrasts May's failings in regards to police and Saudi Arabia with Corbyn's stances.
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The BBC are very scared of the Tories dismantling them so they try to minimise any over-zealous criticism.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
hohoXD123 said:
Interesting dynamic between the BBC News interviewer and Owen Jones. He's visibly uncomfortable whenever Jones contrasts May's failings in regards to police and Saudi Arabia with Corbyn's stances.
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Jones has helped Labour in the media more than some of their own MPs.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
Audioboxer said:
They will. The Unionist vote is largely unifying behind the Tories as Labour is deemed ineffective to stop the SNP.

Even Corbyn cannot save Scottish Labour. They're about as useful as UKIP currently is in England. They've lost the bulk of the left-leaning vote to the SNP, and the right-leaning vote is going Conservative. This campaign they've focussed on chasing the right-leaning votes lost to the Tories and that has been incredibly ineffective.

It's pretty much been left up to the rUK to keep the Tories out. Scotland will obviously largely keep the Tories out up here, but sure, SNP votes do not exactly "help" the rUK.
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I gotta say I for one think that the SNP will lose ten or more seats at least. You can quote me on election night if this isn't the case.
 
S

Stead Fast

Banned
Dirtyshubb said:
Only became aware of him throughout the election but he has been fantastic and his performance tonight was really good.
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A small touch dated, but I couldn't recommend his book 'Chav' high enough, especially with regards to the deconstruction of the class divide in British politics. I've met the guy a couple of times, he's really as passionate as he comes across. Occasionally I can't see eye-to-eye exactly like he does, but I've got more respect for him than most in Parliament.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
Ashes said:
I gotta say I for one think that the SNP will lose ten or more seats at least. You can quote me on election night if this isn't the case.
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I'd say that will be the upper threshold. Pollsters are predicting around 48 seats. 10 seats would take them down to 46.

It's Crab/EleventhHour who are going to be properly winding me up if we get to 10+ losses ಠ_ಠ
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
Moze said:
Sounds like Abbot wants and is expecting to lose her job as home secretary. That will relieve alot of people.
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Sounds like it - and it's something I think Crab said in the last few pages.

It was just another mumbling interview, although no car-crashes this time. She does little to inspire confidence in the current Shadow Cabinet.
 
K

Kotetsu534

Member
Ravensmash said:
Just realised that exit polls are usually very very very accurate.
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Exit polls being accurate also tends to suggest there isn't a big number of people lying about how they vote when asked (i.e. if 4% of Tory voters come out and say they voted Labour you'd expect them to be way off). They naturally adjust for turnout rates and undecideds, which are likely the bigger issues pre-election sampling struggles with.
 
Toytown Assassin

Toytown Assassin

Member
Kotetsu534 said:
Exit polls being accurate also tends to suggest there isn't a big number of people lying about how they vote when asked (i.e. if 4% of Tory voters come out and say they voted Labour you'd expect them to be way off). They naturally adjust for turnout rates and undecideds, which are likely the bigger issues pre-election sampling struggles with.
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IIRC they dont ask they get people to put a ballot paper in a box like they did when they voted.
 
J

jelly

Member
Ashes said:
I gotta say I for one think that the SNP will lose ten or more seats at least. You can quote me on election night if this isn't the case.
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Wow, that would be quite a lot after being so successful before. I wonder if it's people on Brexit/Indy wagon only or they just aren't impressed with the SNP over the years.
 
D

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
the entire Sky news interview with Abbott was just trying to catch her out. He tried with police numbers and when that didn't work kept trying to get her to say something about a report in a way that he could come back on. It's actually pretty funny how hard he tried. He was desperate for a another blunder.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
jelly said:
Wow, that would be quite a lot after being so successful before. I wonder if it's people on Brexit/Indy wagon only or they just aren't impressed with the SNP over the years.
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Sanity would lead you to believe it's due to indyref2. A country that just voted majority remain and the state of the current Conservative party seeing... multiple Tory gains. Many will put aside their critical thinking faculties this time around to vote for a party that is a UK-wide disaster as they have campaigned the strongest for the Union. The Union becomes voting point #1 for many, well before policy.

I don't quite know what I think of Scottish Labour voters flipping Tory, but I'll accept the emotional attachment to the Union simply overrides everything. Ironically, Labour is a pro-Union choice, it's just successfully been framed that Labour have no chance against the SNP so you have to vote Conservative for the Union.

Davidson has completely outmanoeuvred Dugdale, and Dugdale has also completely failed to convince the soft left-leaning SNP voters who left them in 2015 to come back. The swings this time around will be from Labour to Conservative, obliterating what votes Labour still had left and unifying them behind the Conservatives to pick up some seats. I doubt you'll see any of those crazy Conservative 50/60%+ wins from parts of England, but rather the SNP lose seats by 5~10% in currently owned areas.

It's still going to be painful because to lose seats up here SNP voters would very much rather see them go back to Labour. At this stage, it would be a pleasant surprise to see it be multiple Labour gains. I still think Dugdale is terrible, but I can get behind Corbyn.
 
M

Moze

Banned
D4Danger said:
the entire Sky news interview with Abbott was just trying to catch her out. He tried with police numbers and when that didn't work kept trying to get her to say something about a report in a way that he could come back on. It's actually pretty funny how hard he tried. He was desperate for a another blunder.
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''Did you read the report?''

''Yes''

''Then tell me specifically what it said.''

''Well, I read it and I agree with many of the points in it.''

''List the the points in detail and tell me why you agree with them.''

It was kind of crazy.
 
S

Stead Fast

Banned
D4Danger said:
the entire Sky news interview with Abbott was just trying to catch her out. He tried with police numbers and when that didn't work kept trying to get her to say something about a report in a way that he could come back on. It's actually pretty funny how hard he tried. He was desperate for a another blunder.
Click to expand...

Indeed, it was a little sad by the end. If it is true that she is scheduling her own appearances after the police figures, then I can imagine the only reason the editor even vetted this interview was to have her slip up again on something.
 
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