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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
- Start date
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whyamihere
Banned
It would not surprise me if we had a poll or two say that Labour is ahead if it's about a 5-6 point race.
OverBlood 3
Banned
I just can't bring myself to trust polls at all, maybe I'm a cynic.
It's especially hard to trust polls just now given that they're pretty split compared to previous years.
Interesting that it seems like Scottish voters do intend to vote Labour more to the area of about +7% recently. This is taking a couple of points away from the Tories and SNP each. It's Corbyn that is doing this, obviously, but I wondered if it really would have an effect. My only concern is that it might backfire and give the Tories a few more seats than they deserve (Well, that's 0 but anyway) due to the left vote being split between SNP and Labour. I'm pretty torn myself!
Have the Harry Potter fans among us seen this post already?
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10158864549390436&id=577635435
Bit long but quite amused by some lines. The Mug, European Wizarding Council, unskilled foreign wizards etc.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10158864549390436&id=577635435
Bit long but quite amused by some lines. The Mug, European Wizarding Council, unskilled foreign wizards etc.
GameRamble
Member
This is what I needed today.
No there was one before this about a week ago, I think, but it had the tories at 45%. It's the first one that has them neck and neck like this, though.
Audioboxer
Member
More Lib Dem losses. Huw on life support
Time for Greg to go viral. That YT video has a criminally low view count as it is.
Huw_Dawson
Member
More Lib Dem losses. Huw on life support
We're in to the last week of the campaign here though - no reason to call people out! Someone else would mistake that for bad humour.
I'm not on life-support, I'm still reasonably chirpy. Depending on how polling day goes it shouldn't - bar the polls being seriously off - result in LD losses. The backswing from the SNP in Scotland and the Tory retreat in London should help cover any losses. There's not going to be some magic late-day surge, but from the polls to the chatter to the betting markets there's a broad consensus on somewhere around the 11-15 seat mark. I peg the final result as being pretty much in the range Yougov has - 7 (bad night) to 23 (everything we know about British elections is wrong).
Alternatively, the Ashcroft/Electoral Calculus models are right, despite their freaky seat predictions, and we're all going to be equally miserable on Friday!
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
According to Reuters that Survation poll was carried out before Saturday night.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN18W2SX
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN18W2SX
Interesting. I guess it could swing either way, but the momentum has almost certainly been with Labour since the London attack.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Oh yeah there's a neat post by everyone's favourite polling expert on what to expect about Thursday night.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40167578
Personally I'll take a look at the exit poll and then head to bed - no running commentary from me. Either it's a bad result or a good one. We'll be alright as a party regardless.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40167578
Personally I'll take a look at the exit poll and then head to bed - no running commentary from me. Either it's a bad result or a good one. We'll be alright as a party regardless.
It'll swing more labours way as May is being smashed over the police cuts. Also there's fuck all way they are going to get Brexit headlines for the next few days. It's all about security now.
Mm.
Truth be told though, I kind of still want to Conservatives to pull through so they can fully own the shit show that'll be Brexit. It's their fucking mess, so they should clean it up.
PowderedToast
Junior Member
man idk if I can deal with these polls.
it's been a wild ride but my heart can't take it anymore.
corbyn has ran a fantastic campaign. I always believed in him, perhaps naïvely at times, but my faith has paid off. he's a truly good egg who has done the left proud.
that's something he should be remembered for regardless of what happens.
it's been a wild ride but my heart can't take it anymore.
corbyn has ran a fantastic campaign. I always believed in him, perhaps naïvely at times, but my faith has paid off. he's a truly good egg who has done the left proud.
that's something he should be remembered for regardless of what happens.
Dirtyshubb
Member
While that is understandable I would much rather Corbyn in charge of brexit talks than may, he might actually be accommodating and get us a decent deal.
yes, he has. he's stuck to his beliefs about socialism and not given in to idiotic calls to authoritarianism and militarism recently. he's run an honourable campaign and even if labour does lose some seats, to bring it back from a wipeout to what it has become gives you some hope that the public is at least not beyond redemption. a big machine has been working against him from the beginning and even still, he's overcome all of that with a measured appeal to egalitarianism and always tried to refocus the debates onto the core issue - wealth inequality.
i hope to see a better result than i'm expecting, but either way he's run a great campaign.
Audioboxer
Member
It was meant to be bad humour ;(
Let's face it, both of us are following parties expected to have losses lol.
I... yeah. Labour's Brexit position is looking significantly less combative and loony than the one from the Conservatives (the irony is palpable considering Corbyn is a Euroskeptic and May used to be a Remainer), but it's a poisoned chalice and will most likely suck whoever gets in.
Then again, the choice is still between a party that will reinvest in public services, and a party who will continue to cut them beyond even unsafe levels.
Zvonimir Boban
Banned
Goddammit, that Greg Knight song is going to be stuck in my head for ages now
GarthVaderUK
Banned
Yeah, I would love Labour to win for that reason, and also because Labour promise to make it easier for my girlfriend to come live in the UK with me, whereas Conservatives will make it more difficult.
I still expect a Conservative win though, as I've been let down by English voters a lot lately. Living where I am in Northern Ireland, I don't even have a Labour candidate to vote for.
Same. Tories are more than happy to use my friends lives as chess pieces to deal with the EU, would rather have Labour in power even if it'll hurt them it'll still be better for us.
I was looking at the seat predictions for the yougov model and their prediction for richmond park was less crazy and more realistic then electoral calculus prediction. Like I don't expect zac goldsmith to win like 60% of the vote right after being kicked out of his seat like two years ago because of incumbency advantage for the lib dem that holds that seat currently. Their prediction for lancaster and fleetwood is a bit crazy. Like labour winning that seat 53% to 41% after winning it by like 3% in 2015 is unrealistic unless labour is turning some of their 2015 marginal seats into safe seats in this election.
The gift that keeps on giving.
ferrasvansen
Member
That Lancaster and Fleetwood seet stands out this morning, May is there now so they must think it's close enough that they need her to visit. Shows how much things have changed. I would have thought given the large poll lead pre Labour bounce it would have been a comfy Tory win.
There's a pretty big student population there so I suspect the result will turn on how they turn out. FWIW my brother studies there and he said the student base seems fairly energised for Labour.
ferrasvansen
Member
Her being there suggests to me the younger vote may well be increasing and she knows it, interesting visit by her for sure likely trying to shore up tory vote but damn the folk she was with so called locals with blue rosettes look very miserable, hardly the positive smiling folk with a winning vibe, strange stuff.
Pretty safe Tory seat here
I hate Hollobone. What I remember of his voting record is terrible and he's awful when it comes to local issues. UKIP aren't standing here in support of him, which is annoying.Mick Scrimshaw the Labour candidate is great and has always fought well on the right side of local issues for some time. But I don't think he has a chance, sadly.
So Nuttall's "you need us to keep the Tories in check" is complete bollocks then.
Yep, total nonsense. This was the excuse... note this awful ("proberly"? wtf!) statement is on their offical Facebook page...
"As you proberly are aware UKIP will not be standing a candidate in the June 8th General election
In stead we have entered into an agreement with Philip Holibone that he will champion our policies in exchange for us not fighting him in the election
This is a unique agreement between Kettering UKIP and Philip Holibone and not the Tory Party
He will be championing our policies on Clean Brexit scrapping HS2 and the ban on face coverings in public
The agreement was unanimously agreed at Hustings Last Wed and approved by the party leader"
"As you proberly are aware UKIP will not be standing a candidate in the June 8th General election
In stead we have entered into an agreement with Philip Holibone that he will champion our policies in exchange for us not fighting him in the election
This is a unique agreement between Kettering UKIP and Philip Holibone and not the Tory Party
He will be championing our policies on Clean Brexit scrapping HS2 and the ban on face coverings in public
The agreement was unanimously agreed at Hustings Last Wed and approved by the party leader"
Whatever the result on Thursday, Labour and Corbyn particularly have ran a brilliant campaign. I feel completely vindicated in voting for him to be leader twice, and in defending him against the naysayers (not least here, wasn't long ago that 90% of GAF hated him).
Guy gives me hope that the future might be alright after all, and seeing Labour shoot up in the polls has me, for the first time in years, a bit proud to be British. Even if the Tories win, I hope Corbyn stays on and cleans up post-Brexit in 2022.
Guy gives me hope that the future might be alright after all, and seeing Labour shoot up in the polls has me, for the first time in years, a bit proud to be British. Even if the Tories win, I hope Corbyn stays on and cleans up post-Brexit in 2022.
*Raises hand*. He has convinced me of his leadership credentials in recent weeks and I'm happy to admit I was wrong on this one.
ReplacementPelican
Member
Well, in all fairness, Corbyn is a populist who hasn't really had the opportunity to address the public yet. Most people's exposure to him was the paper's telling you to hate him or the classic Miliband 'he did a weird thing!' on the news. People have actually had to listen to him now, the Tories underestimated the public and their ability to hear someone out and its bitten them on the arse.
Miles Quaritch
Member
I'm still not entirely onboard with Corbyn. He's done a lot better than I thought possible just six weeks ago and for what he deserves a lot of credit and respect.
QuicheFontaine
Member
lol what does this mean? Everyone I know up in Lancaster is Tory. I doubt they needed to bus people in.
Corbyns bloody mindedness has quite impressed me.
In an era of Politicians obsessed by the optics of a situation, he simply stayed on in the post when everyone seemed against him. At one point it seemed to a perverse Trump like situation where he ignored everyone, but now he's had chance to talk often and at length I've been far more impressed by him as a person than May.
I sincerely doubt we will wake up Friday with Corbyn as PM, but he's gave it far more of a fierce and close battle than anyone imagined and for that I salute him.
The right wing press and BBC are doing everything in their perverse bias to take him down. Hold on JC
In an era of Politicians obsessed by the optics of a situation, he simply stayed on in the post when everyone seemed against him. At one point it seemed to a perverse Trump like situation where he ignored everyone, but now he's had chance to talk often and at length I've been far more impressed by him as a person than May.
I sincerely doubt we will wake up Friday with Corbyn as PM, but he's gave it far more of a fierce and close battle than anyone imagined and for that I salute him.
The right wing press and BBC are doing everything in their perverse bias to take him down. Hold on JC
NekoFever
Member
Part of me wants the Tories with a reduced majority. Enough to be a major embarrassment after the talk of a landslide and ensure lots of infighting in the party, probably with May not lasting long, and it means they're on the hook for when we don't get anything we want from the Brexit negotiations.
The next parliament is a poisoned chalice because whoever leads those negotiations is going to come out smelling like shit and IMO is very likely to lose the next election heavily.
But yeah, it's difficult because of the damage the Tories can do in the meantime.
Rightly or wrongly national security has the potential to make this election a single policy issue now as we head into the last few hours of the campaign.
In what feels like an amazing turn of fate, Corbyn seems far more prepared for this than May. She is getting hammered left, right and centre over cuts to policing and unlike Corbyn doesn't seem to have any firm plans in the manifesto to fall back on with regards to increasing them again.
In what feels like an amazing turn of fate, Corbyn seems far more prepared for this than May. She is getting hammered left, right and centre over cuts to policing and unlike Corbyn doesn't seem to have any firm plans in the manifesto to fall back on with regards to increasing them again.
As someone who soured on Corbyn (i.e. voted for him in the first leadership contest but not the second), I've been largely impressed by how he's done during the campaign. I still don't think he's the man to lead the party, and I'd still be surprised if the Tories don't make at least thirty to forty gains, but I see it as an inevitability that he's going to stay on after the election and I'm more at peace with that now than I have been. My main regret is how weak and shallow the shadow cabinet is. I'd hope that can be amended after Thursday but I'll not hold my breath.
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