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[desertsession]

How likely or unlikely is it that Corbyn will step down if Labour lose?

I've always assumed it was normally the done thing to step down and give someone else a crack but he clearly has a lot of support and that's only increased in the last couple of months.

 

[Kotetsu534]

I know there's a lot of young support for the left and a lot of young people that won't vote, but I don't think those two groups are the same people. The non voters are more going to be those that don't know/care about politics, and there's a hell of a lot of those.

Yes, I posted about this earlier in the thread: it's not students who don't vote (they actually vote more than the national average, and turnout among them in the EU referendum was estimated at nearly 90%). It's the non-students, who probably aren't engaged in much politics at all, who have low turnout rates. As a result, free tuition fees will energise the student vote, and surely swing some converts, but I wouldn't expect it to raise youth turnout all that much.

 

[Thornton Reed]

How likely or unlikely is it that Corbyn will step down if Labour lose?

I've always assumed it was normally the done thing to step down and give someone else a crack but he clearly has a lot of support and that's only increased in the last couple of months.

He has full support of the unions and the members, i think he stays on.

 

[Camper Van Beethoven]

How likely or unlikely is it that Corbyn will step down if Labour lose?

I've always assumed it was normally the done thing to step down and give someone else a crack but he clearly has a lot of support and that's only increased in the last couple of months.

He said he wouldn’t. I’m sure labour would try and get rid of him again though.

 

[Auraela]

Seeing 2 armed police in hastings town centre right now is so surreal

 

[hodgy100]

It depends how badly labour loose.

If its close they should keep him and rally behind him for 2022 as he would have proven that given enough media coverage people will get behind him. set out a proper agenda for the next 5 years and make a proper go of it instead of the mess we have had for the last 2 years.

If its a major defeat then they should drop him :/

 

[hohoXD123]

Nope, I firmly support the party. Just last week I was in Ergon House, phonebanking alongside Mayor Sadiq Khan and London Young Labour for Tooting candidate Rosena Allin-Khan. I disagree with the direction the party has taken, but I still very much want us to win.

But be warned: no victory tomorrow; left, politics, gone.

Sure, he has won two leadership elections with a landslide despite his past and left wing views (which includes a lot of policies the majority of the public agree with), and has turned the ship around from a 20+ point lead, destruction of left wing politics, labour out of power for decades and a three figure Tory majority. But yes, no victory tomorrow clearly shows that this isn't working and left wing politics and Corbyn have no place in the party.

 

[faridmon]

It looks like I will be depressed on Friday.

Bloody hell, this country.

 

[SlipperyFishes]

How likely or unlikely is it that Corbyn will step down if Labour lose?

I've always assumed it was normally the done thing to step down and give someone else a crack but he clearly has a lot of support and that's only increased in the last couple of months.

Unlikely. That would burn all the advances of the party in recent months.

 

[Protome]

I still say that for whoever wins this election it's a poisoned chalice.

While it's true, a poisoned chalice is still a chalice. Whoever wins still gets to shape the country for 5 years, regardless of needing to deal with the economic ramifications of Brexit. A Tory majority for another 5 years will be incredibly destructive to the middle and working class, not too mention those in poverty. Also their intended changes to things like cyber security are going to lead to a major uptick in cyber crime in the country which is pretty terrifying.

How likely or unlikely is it that Corbyn will step down if Labour lose?

I've always assumed it was normally the done thing to step down and give someone else a crack but he clearly has a lot of support and that's only increased in the last couple of months.

I could see their being a big push if Labour loses ground in this election. If they maintain or increase their seats I think Corbyn is pretty safe. Maybe there'll be another leadership contest but I doubt anyone competent will try to take over and so will fail again.

I don't see him standing down unless Labour's seats fall to absurdly low numbers.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Sceptical as I am that this election, regardless of how bad it is for Labour, is the death knell for left wing politics of any description, I'm also sceptical of Corbyn's solution. Voters typically love left wing policies, yes, but they also tend to balk when you present them with the bill.

It's unfortunate that the waters have been so muddied by dissension within the party - justified or unjustified - because a decent shadow cabinet and a united party could have meant this was a much more scientific test of Corbyn's platform. Hostile media was always inevitable so it's hard to cry foul on that front.

There is the argument that, as well as Corbyn has done in recent weeks, another leader might have had Labour tidily ahead. Of course, in such a scenario, Theresa May wouldn't have called a general election. Such hypotheticals aren't really useful at any rate.

People still do need to be careful about counting their chickens before they've hatched.

 

[crayman]

To be fair, I don't think even the Tories would get elected on a platform of making a Pay-For NHS. Any actual movement towards this would be political suicide.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

The Drum says beware YouGov polling.

http://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2017...re-no-longer-just-wrong-they-re-irresponsible

Now I'm sad.

 

[Real Hero]

To be fair, I don't think even the Tories would get elected on a platform of making a Pay-For NHS. Any actual movement towards this would be political suicide.

In this climate I am not so sure.

 

[Audioboxer]

Corbyn ain't exactly young either. This is really his election to win. To be around in 2022 to then lead the country until 2027 seems unlikely.

If it's close I think he'll stick around for a bit but ultimately be replaced for 2022. The biggest worrying being as I said earlier, Labour swing further back to the right convinced that to win they need to be the Tories.

This is the manifesto for the young people to vote for, so if they aren't out in record numbers compared to recent years they can sit in the shame corner.

 

[Cpt Lmao]

Sure, he has won two leadership elections with a landslide despite his past and left wing views (which includes a lot of policies the majority of the public agree with), and has turned the ship around from a 20+ point lead, destruction of left wing politics, labour out of power for decades and a three figure Tory majority. But yes, no victory tomorrow clearly shows that this isn't working and left wing politics and Corbyn have no place in the party.

So you must be very confident he will win tomorrow?

 

[Kotetsu534]

There's a very good chance he does better in the popular vote than Miliband and Brown. Perhaps even nearly as good as Blair in 2005, and that's without Scotland. The left of the Labour party are going nowhere.

 

[toythatkills]

Sure, he has won two leadership elections with a landslide despite his past and left wing views (which includes a lot of policies the majority of the public agree with), and has turned the ship around from a 20+ point lead, destruction of left wing politics, labour out of power for decades and a three figure Tory majority. But yes, no victory tomorrow clearly shows that this isn't working and left wing politics and Corbyn have no place in the party.

Theresa May will win by 20+ points, that ship's still going strong.

 

[Brat-Sampson]

So you must be very confident he will win tomorrow?

The very obvious point you're decidedly choosing to avoid is that someone coming from a being a no-hoper at the start of the season to a close second during a final doesn't mean they should immediately drop out of sports in shame.

 

[Ashes]

The Drum says beware YouGov polling.

http://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2017...re-no-longer-just-wrong-they-re-irresponsible

Now I'm sad.

The Drum? That's a comment piece​ by Former Conservative election adviser Michael Moszynski.

What else was he going to do but attack the only poll that gave Labour the lead?

 

[Meadows]

Hyperbole - she'd be gone anyway and she's been replaced.

Final nowcast from Britain Elects:

Conservative 353 (+23) (Majority of 28)
Labour 219 (-13)
Scottish National 46 (-10)
Liberal Democrat 9 (+1)
Plaid Cymru 3 (-)
Green 1 (-)
UKIP 0 (-1)
NI/Ind/Speaker 19 (-)

 

[kiyomi]

So you must be very confident he will win tomorrow?

Where did you get that from their post?

The fact that he comfortably won the vote to become Labour leader in the first place and has managed to keep his role while Blairites attempt to stab him in the back at every chance they get must tell you something of the Labour-supporting public, and the confidence they have in him with lefter leaning policies, no? Doesn't it tell you anything that Corbyn seems to be garnering support as Labour leader even as members of his own cabinet plot against him?

People like him because he offers something different, something fairer, something more sensible. To ignore the lessons of his popularity would be foolish beyond comprehension.

 

[TimmmV]

So you must be very confident he will win tomorrow?

Progress is slow. Failing to win a snap election 2 years into a 5 year term doesn't mean the left has failed - just that its another 5 years of hard work to try and win the next one

What he said and failing to win the election aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[toythatkills]

Progress is slow. Failing to win a snap election 2 years into a 5 year term doesn't mean the left has failed - just that its another 5 years of hard work to try and win the next one

How does Jeremy Corbyn get the Sun or the Daily Mail on his side, in any universe?

 

[Ushojax]

Sure, he has won two leadership elections with a landslide despite his past and left wing views (which includes a lot of policies the majority of the public agree with), and has turned the ship around from a 20+ point lead, destruction of left wing politics, labour out of power for decades and a three figure Tory majority. But yes, no victory tomorrow clearly shows that this isn't working and left wing politics and Corbyn have no place in the party.

Do you think he would have done so well if the Tories hadn't put out such a shit manifesto? He wasn't making a dent until that turd was dropped.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

The Drum? That's a comment piece​ by Former Conservative election adviser Michael Moszynski.

What else was he going to do but attack the only poll that gave Labour the lead?

Thanks for the heads up, it's a minefield out there today!

 

[Ashes]

Final nowcast from Britain Elects:

Conservative 353 (+23) (Majority of 28)
Labour 219 (-13)
Scottish National 46 (-10)
Liberal Democrat 9 (+1)
Plaid Cymru 3 (-)
Green 1 (-)
UKIP 0 (-1)
NI/Ind/Speaker 19 (-)

How is Corbyn gathering huge crowds if this is the case?

It'll be mighty interesting to see the exit poll.

 

[Bleepey]

Yes I do.

I think Labour would cause us cataclysmic economic harm by ripping us out of the Single Market and then raising taxes. I think their government would be disunified and ineffective. I don't think there has been any real evidence of economic competence displayed by Labour, especially as their "fully costed" manifesto was viewed with severe scepticism by the IFS.

I think the Conservatives risk economic cataclysm via leaving the Single Market, and they've got their eyes on smashing the welfare state.

Labour have their heart in the right place, the Tories have their economics at least plausible. Neither of them has any answers to the massive questions of Britain's democracy, its regions, its place in the world or the future. They are both regressive, backwards-looking parties that want to find solace in reheating the battles of the 70's and 80's.

They are as bad as each other.

Wasn't the labour manifesto endorsed by economists?

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Final nowcast from Britain Elects:

"Why did we bother campaigning for six weeks? Anyone?"

Wasn't the labour manifesto endorsed by economists?

Sure, but you get endorsement of manifestos at any election. I tend to take endorsements with a pinch of salt and prefer to look at essays and articles on the whys and wherefores.

 

[kiyomi]

Do you think he would have done so well if the Tories hadn't put out such a shit manifesto? He wasn't making a dent until that turd was dropped.

It's not his fault they put out such garbage. If you'd believed the backstabbers before the campaign, Corbyn and his crew were destined to put out an equally awful manifesto themselves, because they didn't know what they were doing, raving loony lefties, etc, etc etc.

 

[Ashes]

"Why did we bother campaigning for six weeks? Anyone?"

To stop a Tory landslide with 400+ seats?

 

[Maledict]

How is Corbyn gathering huge crowds if this is the case?

It'll be mighty interesting to see the exit poll.

Crowd size means nothing, seriously. It shows you have a passionate base, but that doesn't translate into votes in elections.

 

[Little Old Man]

While it's true, a poisoned chalice is still a chalice. Whoever wins still gets to shape the country for 5 years, regardless of needing to deal with the economic ramifications of Brexit. A Tory majority for another 5 years will be incredibly destructive to the middle and working class, not too mention those in poverty. Also their intended changes to things like cyber security are going to lead to a major uptick in cyber crime in the country which is pretty terrifying.

Sorry, I should have clarified what I meant: which is that for Labour supporters here, what I said earlier is a silver lining for Friday. The press will destroy May when these talks go belly up, but she can easily be replaced, with the media blaming her specifically, and not the party too strongly, so as to not destory their 2022 chances. If Labour were to get in, the press would gun not just for Corbyn, but the entire party.

 

[Meadows]

How is Corbyn gathering huge crowds if this is the case?

It'll be mighty interesting to see the exit poll.

Pollsters think that his message is doing great among younger voters, students and the "trendy left" in metropolitan areas - like those where the rallies were held (also the people who are on your FB/Twitter timelines posting Corbyn stuff non-stop).

The problem? These people are already in Labour safe seats or in some cases LD/SNP seats.

 

[Mr. Sam]

How is Corbyn gathering huge crowds if this is the case?

Unless he's drawing crowds of thirty million people, they're a very poor indicator of how this election will go. Michael Foot drew big crowds.

 

[N7Commander95]

If the conservatives only gain 20 seats I can't imagine anyone is going to feel good come Friday

Labour Loses and Conservative didnt gain nearly as much they want

The feeling of 'What's was the whole point of that?' Will be strong

 

[Huw_Dawson]

To stop a Tory landslide with 400+ seats?

I mean from the Tory side. Huge piles of cash burnt and your leader's reputation badly hurt for not much of a ringing endorsement from the public.

Obviously that result would be good for Labour, less-so for the LDs and SNP. If Corbyn ends up at over 200 seats then I'd imagine he's secure until succession.

 

[Protome]

How is Corbyn gathering huge crowds if this is the case?

It'll be mighty interesting to see the exit poll.

How did the Yes campaign get massive crowds during the Indiref when the No campaign had literally a handful of people show up to their events?

 

[Hazzuh]

How is Corbyn gathering huge crowds if this is the case?

It'll be mighty interesting to see the exit poll.

Yeovil United get bigger crowds than Corbyn.

 

[Ashes]

Crowd size means nothing, seriously. It shows you have a passionate base, but that doesn't translate into votes in elections.

To whom are you comparing with though? Can't think of anyone other than Bernie or Obama who managed this much turn around on the grass roots level. Definitely no MP in my lifetime.

Basically Corbyn is going viral in real life.

 

[*Splinter]

Theresa May will win by 20+ points, that ship's still going strong.

Percentage points. May will be lucky to win by 10.

How does Jeremy Corbyn get the Sun or the Daily Mail on his side, in any universe?

He doesn't.

Either they follow their reader's opinion (in which case it's somewhat irrelevant as they won't flip until well after a majority of the public do) or they work in the interests of Murdoch and co (in which case they will be right wing shitrags forever).

Corbyn will have to win without them, as would any Labour leader.

How is Corbyn gathering huge crowds if this is the case?

It'll be mighty interesting to see the exit poll.

Huge crowds are about as useful as anecdotal evidence. I think crowd sizes are only interesting when they are low, and even then it's not a guarantee of anything.

To whom are you comparing with though? Can't think of anyone other than Bernie or Obama who managed this much turn around on the grass roots level. Definitely no MP in my lifetime.

Basically Corbyn is going viral in real life.

Bernie lost to the loser of that election.

 

[Ashes]

How did the Yes campaign get massive crowds during the Indiref when the No campaign had literally a handful of people show up to their events?

How indeed?

 

[kiyomi]

Yeovil United get bigger crowds than Corbyn.

Let's hope they all voted Labour.

 

[Toytown Assassin]

Conservative 353 (+23) (Majority of 28)

That'd be a majority of 56 not 28.

 

[Meadows]

To whom are you comparing with though? Can't think of anyone other than Bernie or Obama who managed this much turn around on the grass roots level. Definitely no MP in my lifetime.

Basically Corbyn is going viral in real life.

Blair '97, Hollande '12, Kinnock '92

 

[jem0208]

That'd be a majority of 56 not 28.

353-325=28

 

[toythatkills]

Percentage points. May will be lucky to win by 10.

I understand that, she'll win by 20.

He doesn't.

Either they follow their reader's opinion (in which case it's somewhat irrelevant as they won't flip until well after a majority of the public do) or they work in the interests of Murdoch and co (in which case they will be right wing shitrags forever).

Corbyn will have to win without them, as would any Labour leader.

Tony Blair didn't have to

 

[Hazzuh]

Evening Standard endorses the Tories:

 

[Burai]

Sorry, I should have clarified what I meant: which is that for Labour supporters here, what I said earlier is a silver lining for Friday. The press will destroy May when these talks go belly up, but she can easily be replaced, with the media blaming her specifically, and not the party too strongly, so as to not destory their 2022 chances. If Labour were to get in, the press would gun not just for Corbyn, but the entire party.

Yeah. As much as I'd like Labour to win, I don't want them to be the ones to take the flak for Brexit. The image of May, Boris, Gove and Fox jeering Corbyn from the opposition benches because of his "failure" to build a house on the foundation of fuck that they personally laid makes make feel very uncomfortable.

Those bastards need to own this shit.

 

[Chinner]

Apparently Abbot has been diagnosed with a serious long term condition.