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[*Splinter]

If the brexit deal collapses (because, you know, no deal is better than a bad deal) you really think she'll stick around and face the backlash?

we'll definitely have another election before 2022.

Surely that would be the worst time for the Tories to call an election?

Change leader, wait a couple of years for people to forget.

I thought that was the whole point of having an election now, so that the next one isn't so soon after Brexit goes tits up

 

[jelly]

The next 5 years are going to be a disaster at best.

 

[Meadows]

Does anyone think that election campaigns should be shortened? I was reading that basically every campaign being so long in today's politics means that eventually everyone gets to a point where both main choices will never be further apart than 45/55.

While for the Labour supporters that would be bad because it would likely have meant Corbyn wouldn't have reduced the Con majority, it did have a bad effect in terms of Brexit going from overwhelmingly Remain to slight Brexit and Trump coming from nowhere to win.

It's like the longer the campaign goes on, the more the country becomes divided into two equally-ish sized camps that are incredibly partisan.

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts, but please don't just shut me down because you think it would be bad for your party (probably Labour).

 

[Doc_Drop]

8 weeks is not a long campaign....

 

[pulsemyne]

More of YouGov, showing the gap tightening very slightly. No idea how things are gonna fall by the end.

Even presuming that you get the max tory number and min labour number out of that then it's still a shocking result. No one would ever have thought it possible before the election. The tories expected to waltz in with a 100 plus majority instead they would limp over the finish line.

 

[jelly]

Compared to a US election it's instant.

 

[JonathanEx]

I guess you also have a big difference between fixed term and snap ones for how it 'feels' as there's a lot of panic to get things in, and not in the optimum way.

 

[pulsemyne]

Surely that would be the worst time for the Tories to call an election?

Change leader, wait a couple of years for people to forget.

I thought that was the whole point of having an election now, so that the next one isn't so soon after Brexit goes tits up

Not really as they could just think "Right it's going to be bad so lets get out now and let Labour deal with the massive mess and come back in five years time and blame it all on them."

 

[D4Danger]

Surely that would be the worst time for the Tories to call an election?

Change leader, wait a couple of years for people to forget.

I thought that was the whole point of having an election now, so that the next one isn't so soon after Brexit goes tits up

getting rid of May and trying to present an immediate new plan would be better than sitting in the mess for years as people get more and more angry. At least that's how I see it. I guess clinging to power is also an option.

or maybe brexit will be great and none of this matters.

 

[Meadows]

8 weeks is not a long campaign....

In Germany they are 5 weeks.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...06b928603b2_story.html?utm_term=.d858f923af73

Compared to a US election it's instant.

Yeah but we shouldn't compare ourselves to insanity haha

 

[*Splinter]

Not really as they could just think "Right it's going to be bad so lets get out now and let Labour deal with the massive mess and come back in five years time and blame it all on them."

That would have to happen before Brexit, not after (ie. Now).

getting rid of May and trying to present an immediate new plan would be better than sitting in the mess for years as people get more and more angry. At least that's how I see it. I guess clinging to power is also an option.

or maybe brexit will be great and none of this matters.

They can (and probably will) change leader without holding a GE though. I'm sure they will look for scapegoats and May will be at the top of their list.

 

[pulsemyne]

That would have to happen before Brexit, not after (ie. Now).


They can (and probably will) change leader without holding a GE though. I'm sure they will look for scapegoats and May will be at the top of their list.

No it would be better to do it just before the 2 year period when you realise your not going to get a deal and there no time left. Call election...lose...Labour comes in has to deal with horrible mess and you can blame labour.

 

[Ein Bear]

Whilst I have no hope of anything other than a Conservative win, I really wish I could at least see what the front page of the Daily Mail would have been like had they lost the election. I'm sure it would be a sight to behold.

 

[*Splinter]

No it would be better to do it just before the 2 year period when you realise your not going to get a deal and there no time left. Call election...lose...Labour comes in has to deal with horrible mess and you can blame labour.

I was going to say "people aren't THAT stupid" but...

🤔

 

[Coffinhal]

To be fair you're talking shit and this kind of thinking is what allowed Trump to win and is a huge reason why Corbyn has little chance to win tomorrow.

What allowed Trump to win is the great campaign he ran, mobilizing a conservative electorate and even demobilizing his opponent's electorate ; and the bad campaign Clinton ran, not being able to mobilize her electorate for her policies or against Trump, or even having her agenda on the agenda.

Blaming people who felt they were equally bad (for whatever reason) is still the worst way to look at the election, you're still not understanding why Trump won.

 

[Doc_Drop]

In Germany they are 5 weeks.

I can see the benefit of not tiring the voters into apathy, I just feel 5-8 weeks is not long enough to cover all policies,canvas properly, and in the UK's case reeks of a lack in confidence of the message of the party representatives

 

[Hazzuh]

Theresa May is campaigning in Norfolk even though the Tories hold all but two seats there. I think they expect to take North Norfolk from Norman Lamb but it may also be a sign that they think they can win Norwich South from Clive Lewis too.

 

[Ac30]

What allowed Trump to win is the great campaign he ran, mobilizing a conservative electorate and even demobilizing his opponent's electorate ; and the bad campaign Clinton ran, not being able to mobilize her electorate for her policies or against Trump, or even having her agenda on the agenda.

Blaming people who felt they were equally bad (for whatever reason) is still the worst way to look at the election, you're still not understanding why Trump won.

There is no such thing as "equally bad" candidates unless they ran on identical platforms and are equally immoral individuals - some policies will always affect you more than others will.

Trump did run a great (I guess that's the word for it?) campaign though.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Revising my Lib Dem prediction based on the final Yougov polling. 8-18, so something like 13.5 seats mean.

I think I know why Yougov's seat predictions are badly off, too. They're predicting, for example, that Labour's vote will go up by something like 7% in St Ives - LD/Con marginal where both sides will be attempting to squeeze that vote as much as possible.

I don't think they're applying any squishing of swing voters. There's no reason someone who didn't vote Labour in St Ives in 2015 would vote Labour in St Ives in 2017. If you want Corbyn in Downing Street, you'd just go and back the Lib Dem.

The big question is Clegg's seat, Sheffield Hallam. Yougov pegs the Tories gaining about 8 or 9% of the vote share there, and Labour winning. But I've heard nothing internally saying this has happened, and it would be a gross failure of the campaign in the seat if the Conservative vote was not squeezed.

IMO there's too much weirdness with the Yougov predictions to take them seriously without re-weighting.

 

[danowat]

Theresa May is campaigning in Norfolk even though the Tories hold all but two seats there. I think they expect to take North Norfolk from Norman Lamb but it may also be a sign that they think they can win Norwich South from Clive Lewis too.

North Norfolk is a little yellow bastion of calm in my true blue nightmare of a county.

 

[Garjon]

OH, BBC butting in again, they can't allow him to speak freely for too long, must spin it.

I FUCKING HATE THE BBC

EDIT: I fondly remember the BBC giving Gordon Brown what felt like an hour of unlimited pacing back and forth time so he could talk down independence and promise vows and other bullshit that amounted to fuck all, when he wasn't even in a position to offer ANYTHING.

I genuinely think the BBC as it is currently run will be dead within a decade or at least will be fully privatised. It is losing the support of the left through the news editors attackign anything even remotely left-wing; the right hate it for ideological reasons and centrists, like everyone else, are beginning to wonder where their TV licence fee is going. It could get to the point where axing the TV licence will be a majorly popular pledge at the next election. And to be honest, the only things I watch/listen to anymore are RadMac and Robot Wars so I really couldn't care less.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

North Norfolk is a little yellow bastion of calm in my true blue nightmare of a county.

If you want cheering up, I am pegging North Norfolk as a decent chance at being held. It comes down to the Labour vote and if enough of them are willing to vote against the Tories.

 

[danowat]

If you want cheering up, I am pegging North Norfolk as a decent chance at being held. It comes down to the Labour vote and if enough of them are willing to vote against the Tories.

I think it probably will, Lamb has a strong following.

 

[ss1]

I genuinely think the BBC as it is currently run will be dead within a decade or at least will be fully privatised. It is losing the support of the left through the news editors attackign anything even remotely left-wing; the right hate it for ideological reasons and centrists, like everyone else, are beginning to wonder where their TV licence fee is going. It could get to the point where axing the TV licence will be a majorly popular pledge at the next election. And to be honest, the only things I watch/listen to anymore are RadMac and Robot Wars so I really couldn't care less.

Several years ago I would of strongly disagreed with you. But with the rise of Neflix and others it does feel like that the current arrangement for the BBC is not sustainable.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I think it probably will, Lamb has a strong following.

He's a good egg and has a lot more to give in parliament. I seriously hope he does. One major thing on his side is that most of the swing away from the LDs this election has been LD -> Lab, but there has been a decent chunk of former LD voters coming back on board. And the LDs are not that disliked by Labour voters in general.

If he doesn't, some mental health charity is going to get a killer CEO in a few months.

FWIW if the Tories went after the BBC, you'd get Doctor Who fans up in arms across the country. I don't think the Tories are brave enough to take on the Who fandom.

 

[liquidtmd]

I really wish I could at least see what the front page of the Daily Mail would have been like had they lost the election. I'm sure it would be a sight to behold.

"

Spoiler

FUCK

The Will of The People, we will

Spoiler

not fucking

accept this"

 

[Ashes]

Labour got decimated at the council elections. I'm still surprised it's not likely to happen in the general election just weeks after..

 

[Huw_Dawson]

The Mail would have some "RIP UK" message if Corbyn won. (The same basic message was planned to be used by the alt-right in the US if Trump lost, and it was used in France when Le Pen lost)

@Ashes it is still likely to happen.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Revising my Lib Dem prediction based on the final Yougov polling. 8-18, so something like 13.5 seats mean.

I think I know why Yougov's seat predictions are badly off, too. They're predicting, for example, that Labour's vote will go up by something like 7% in St Ives - LD/Con marginal where both sides will be attempting to squeeze that vote as much as possible.

I don't think they're applying any squishing of swing voters. There's no reason someone who didn't vote Labour in St Ives in 2015 would vote Labour in St Ives in 2017. If you want Corbyn in Downing Street, you'd just go and back the Lib Dem.

The big question is Clegg's seat, Sheffield Hallam. Yougov pegs the Tories gaining about 8 or 9% of the vote share there, and Labour winning. But I've heard nothing internally saying this has happened, and it would be a gross failure of the campaign in the seat if the Conservative vote was not squeezed.

IMO there's too much weirdness with the Yougov predictions to take them seriously without re-weighting.

Clegg is my pick for the Portillo award

Spoiler

#LibDemfightback

This is far more damning though, suggesting that it's not really the 2010 betrayal that's keeping people away.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Whilst I have no hope of anything other than a Conservative win, I really wish I could at least see what the front page of the Daily Mail would have been like had they lost the election. I'm sure it would be a sight to behold.

Claims of rigged elections most likely. Just go see what the US gutter presses did when Obama won first time out, perhaps minus some racism.

 

[Crispy75]

IMO there's too much weirdness with the Yougov predictions to take them seriously without re-weighting.

An actuary acquaintance of mine on another board has this to say about YouGov:

Having looked into YouGov's methodology, I think it's by far and away the most sound, statistically speaking. It uses the same principles that are rather successfully used to price motor insurance and maximise supermarket profitability from club card data. It's the next generation of polling -- YouGov are using 10 year-old techniques where the others are stuck on 50 year-old techniques.

It is much more data-dependent than ordinary polling, though, which is why I guess they survey 50,000 people. Even with this many, though, I'm still not utterly convinced it is enough -- the equivalent motor insurance analysis would tend to have millions of data points if it was trying to cover the whole population, rather than 50,000. But then, motor pricing is trying to predict rarer events, not make a best estimate guess at a poll result.

*adds a single cupped hand around the guttering flame of hope*

 

[sflufan]

Checking in from the US: what is the possibility of a "progressive" (Labour/Green/SNP) coalition if such a government would be greater than Tory representation in Parliament?

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Clegg is my pick for the Portillo award

He's not out of the woods yet.

But my thought on Clegg is that, if Yougov are so heavily weighting seat gains for Labour, he should be more distant in their estimate. But I think it's abundantly clear Yougov is over-optimistic in its estimation of Labour's prospects, and I don't see a big rise in the Tory vote in Hallam either - not when the LDs have blitzed the constituency with a squeeze message.

Every interview has him saying he's confident on winning, which is precisely useless, but his actions in the past two weeks have not shown any real fear of losing the seat. He's doing far more work nationally now than he was in 2015 - appearing on TV, making speeches and whatnot.

So my estimation is that a hold is likely - same as Richmond Park, which has an improbably high Labour vote that should be squeezed into oblivion. Any Labour voter that doesn't vote Labour to block Goldsmith in RP is... in need of a severe talking to.

Hallam will be lost if there is a LD -> Lab swing and the Tory voters don't vote tactically. And you literally have the Daily Mail advocating Tory voters in Hallam vote tactically for Nick Clegg, such is the utterly bonkers world we live in.

 

[Meadows]

Checking in from the US: what is the possibility of a "progressive" (Labour/Green/SNP) coalition if such a government would be greater than Tory representation in Parliament?

Unlikely. The Greens will have 1 MP (2 max), which is like 0.2% of the seat share and the SNP want to break up the UK which would be political suicide for Labour.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Checking in from the US: what is the possibility of a "progressive" (Labour/Green/SNP) coalition if such a government would be greater than Tory representation in Parliament?

High IMO, but none of those parties would campaign on it for obvious reasons.

The Greens and Labour are particularly very, very close in policy and ideology.

 

[Ashes]

@Ashes it is still likely to happen.

Aye. Maybe I'm speaking too soon.

Good luck with your party.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Aye. Maybe I'm speaking too soon.

Good luck with your party.

Yup, I wish luck to everyone other than the Tories. If Labour do their signature GOTV operation, maybe the Tories will discover what the LDs discovered in 2010 - that as much as you think you can swing a Labour voter, they can be insanely tribal at times.

 

[Rainy Dog]

Oh he is!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32594822

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-16849540

Kinda wish I lived in Calder Valley just so I had the satisfaction of voting against the cunt.

I do and will be doing just that.

Truly depressing how many of those signs there are in my small neighbourhood though.

 

[Delusibeta]

Checking in from the US: what is the possibility of a "progressive" (Labour/Green/SNP) coalition if such a government would be greater than Tory representation in Parliament?

An official coalition? Nil. It'll be political suicide for all involved. A supply & confidence agreement? Likely, since no manifesto pledges would need to be broken for that to happen.

Although frankly, I think that a 100+ Tory majority is far more likely to happen than Labour/SNP/Greens/Lib Dems getting enough seats whereby a supply & confidence agreement would make sense.

 

[sohois]

An actuary acquaintance of mine on another board has this to say about YouGov:



*adds a single cupped hand around the guttering flame of hope*

Andrew Gelman, renowned statistics blogger, was also quite complementary of the YouGov's methodology. Can't link because I'm on mobile, but a google search should find the post

 

[nekkid]

Unlikely. The Greens will have 1 MP (2 max), which is like 0.2% of the seat share and the SNP want to break up the UK which would be political suicide for Labour.

The UK government shouldn't be driven, even partially via coalition, by a party whose focus is a single home nation.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Yup, I wish luck to everyone other than the Tories. If Labour do their signature GOTV operation, maybe the Tories will discover what the LDs discovered in 2010 - that as much as you think you can swing a Labour voter, they can be insanely tribal at times.

Good luck to your band of intrepid centrists, and you're slightly weird but heart in the right place leader.

UKIP can get to fuck as well.

 

[hodgy100]

The UK government shouldn't be driven, even partially via coalition, by a party whose focus is a single home nation.

they are asking for a referendum. I see no harm in allowing scotland to have an indieref 2

 

[nekkid]

they are asking for a referendum. I see no harm in allowing scotland to have an indieref 2

That's not what I'm talking about.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Good luck to your band of intrepid centrists, and you're slightly weird but heart in the right place leader.

UKIP can get to fuck as well.

He's not slightly weird!

Spoiler

...for a Lib Dem!

I suppose Farron is the first leader we've had that's matched the activist base. Former member of the SBS, someone who was an MP since they were 23, and then an Eton/Oxford grad who worked on EU trade deals. Then Tim Farron. He's weird for a Lib Dem leader, but not weird for a Lib Dem activist - it's why he's so well-liked internally.

 

[Spuck-uk]

He's not slightly weird!

Spoiler

...for a Lib Dem!

True, you should see my Dad.

 

[hodgy100]

That's not what I'm talking about.

Sorry i assumed you were saying Labour shouldn't try to form a coalition with the SNP?

 

[Theonik]

The UK government shouldn't be driven, even partially via coalition, by a party whose focus is a single home nation.

The country is meant to be driven by a group of MPs each representing and getting their mandates from the constituents that elected them. In that sense, there is no reason to believe that national parties are against the principle on which the UK Parliament is founded. SNP is no worse than labour in the premise of gaining parliamentary consensus.

 

[Dazzler]

Not from England so take anything I say with a grain of salt

This seems like an election Labour would be better off losing. Brexit is going to tank the UK economy and they do not want to be at the controls when that happens. Best to let the Cons take the flak for it, and sweep into power in four years to rebuild

Brexit really is the greatest political cockup of recent times, more damaging even than Trump winning imo

 

[Beefy]

Apparently according to some Labour members down here, Abbott has early stages of Parkinson's.