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[Napoleonthechimp]

The craziest thing is that I've been comparing the change in votes since the last set of elections, and Labour (and the Lib Dems) have held remarkably solid. For all the complaints about Corbyn, he's pulled in very nearly equivalent votes to Miliband - I make it a 2% decrease. The main story of this election night is that UKIP's extrapolated national share of the vote has fallen from 22% to 3% (not a typo!). It's not that Labour is falling back, it's that they just can't cope with the mass return of UKIP voters to the Conservatives.

And their masterplan to be racist xenophobic cunts is working wonders. This country is fucked. The majority are apparently stupid and short-sighted, and they seemingly want to go back to yesteryear and be ruled by upper class masters.

 

[PJV3]

I'm just in the acceptance stage, the Tory + ukip steamroller and the way the public mood is going makes an unhappy cocktail.

Labour with a different leader might be able to do a little better, but not much.

 

[cyberheater]

And their masterplan to be racist xenophobic cunts is working wonders. This country is fucked. The majority are apparently stupid and short-sighted, and they seemingly want to go back to yesteryear and be ruled by upper class masters.

Most people just want a quiet life and stability which is what the Tories are offering.

 

[chromatic9]

Once again, for clarity, you don't default to the WTO. Our current membership is via the EU. Once we leave, our membership will no longer be valid so we'll have to re-apply and it's up to the other member whether we're allowed to join. Other members such as the European Union...

UK is a full founding member

You don't reapply to the WTO, you do your own schedules and they don't have to be certified.

Please read
https://www.instituteforgovernment....hings-know-about-world-trade-organization-wto

 

[danowat]

Rich people just want a quiet life and stability which is what the Tories are offering.

FTFY

 

[Roberto Larcos]

And their masterplan to be racist xenophobic cunts is working wonders. This country is fucked. The majority are apparently stupid and short-sighted, and they seemingly want to go back to yesteryear and be ruled by upper class masters.

It would almost be a silver lining if May were as smart as Urquhart, but she's awful too.

 

[cyberheater]

FTFY

No. Which is why they are gaining a lot of ground.

 

[Ushojax]

I'm just in the acceptance stage, the Tory + ukip steamroller and the way the public mood is going makes an unhappy cocktail.

Labour with a different leader might be able to do a little better, but not much.

Without Scotland, Labour are fucked for the foreseeable future. They need a '97 Blair-level candidate to have any chance of governing again, and for Brexit to be an utter disaster.

 

[danowat]

No. Which is why they are gaining a lot of ground.

I don't agree, I'd say it's more to do with the lack of credible opposition than that.

 

[Napoleonthechimp]

Most people just want a quiet life and stability which is what the Tories are offering.

And when it all turns to shit I want to rub their godforsaken faces in the muck they've left others to clean up.

 

[cyberheater]

I don't agree, I'd say it's more to do with the lack of credible opposition than that.

Yes. That as well. As a Labour voter all my life I have to say it's a terrible state of affairs.

And when it all turns to shit I want to rub their godforsaken faces in the muck they've left others to clean up.

Do you really think Labour or the Lib Dems would be better in charge. No. I didn't think so.

 

[Wvrs]

It's unusual for them to happen a month apart, not at the same time though. A lot of council elections were the same day as the 2015 GE. This is the closest we'll ever get to reading into local results for the General, but I agree it's still mostly not very indicative.

There's a lot of campaigning to go, polls will shift, debates might happen, turnouts will be higher, and these results themselves might change things.

Thanks for correcting me, I only really developed an interest in politics after the last GE (the shock of the Tories winning galvanised me and now I'm a political geek) so I'm a bit shaky on things like that.

Either way, I'm leaving on July 30. Haven't made any plans to return yet, and if the Tories win another five years I can't see myself doing so anytime soon.

 

[PJV3]

Without Scotland, Labour are fucked for the foreseeable future. They need a '97 Blair-level candidate to have any chance of governing again, and for Brexit to be an utter disaster.

I'm hoping the Tories can't turn the next general election into a brexit one, they love it. But it will be the independence election or some other bullshit that will wind the public up.

 

[danowat]

Do you really think Labour or the Lib Dems would be better in charge. No. I didn't think so.

"Better" is hard to define, I think better depends on the individuals circumstances, Labour would still have the same resources to distribute, but for me, I think they'd distribute them in a fairer way.

 

[Ushojax]

Most people just want a quiet life and stability which is what the Tories are offering.

They aren't offering stability though, in the last year we have seen an internal Tory dispute explode into a global event that cost the last PM his job, threatens the stability of Europe, wiped a fifth off the pound's value, threatens the golden goose of our financial industry etc. We have seen multiple U-turns from the Conservatives every time there is a major policy announcement as well as a U-turn on this election happening. It only looks stable because the opposition is a complete omnishambles and the full consequences of Brexit are still years away.

 

[Mr. Sam]

The results are basically going the way I was expecting. While it's very much not good, it's not come as a surprise, so it's not quite the gut punch of the last general election or Brexit - and probably a good dress rehearsal for the coming election.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Once again, for clarity, you don't default to the WTO. Our current membership is via the EU. Once we leave, our membership will no longer be valid so we'll have to re-apply and it's up to the other member whether we're allowed to join. Other members such as the European Union...

No we won't. You keep saying this, it's not true.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

If you look at Lincolnshire, now that it's fully reported...

Con: 53.4% (+17.4)
Lab: 19.3% (+0.7)
UKIP: 7.5% (-16.8)
LDem: 4.6% (+0.1)
Grn: 1.5% (+1.4)
Oth: 13.7% (-2.7)

You can see that the story is mostly just of a UKIP collapse there.

Cumbria too:

Con: 44.6% (+13.0)
Lab: 26.2% (-1.7)
LDem: 17.9% (-0.7)
Grn: 3.8% (+1.6)
UKIP: 2.0% (-9.7)
Oth: 5.4% (-2.6)

LDs/Labour seeing small swings, UKIP flatlining.

Although somewhat more cheerfully for me, I thought we were down by quite a few, but Britain Elects puts the LDs at only -1.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Without Scotland, Labour are fucked for the foreseeable future. They need a '97 Blair-level candidate to have any chance of governing again, and for Brexit to be an utter disaster.

Dan Jarvis could be one such candidate.

 

[Maledict]

Dan Jarvis could be one such candidate.

Have you heard him speak? So far I'm not convinced at all. He's amazing on paper but seems to really lack charisma.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Dan Jarvis could be one such candidate.

Unless you can put him and his children in the hyperbolic time chamber... or the other way around. Or something.

 

[*Splinter]

It's not that Labour is falling back, it's that they just can't cope with the mass return of UKIP voters to the Conservatives.

I thought those UKIP voters were previously mostly Labour though?

 

[danowat]

I thought those UKIP voters were previously mostly Labour though?

I would imagine Labour's woolly stance on Brexit has driven kippers to the Cons.

 

[jimbobsmells]

Dan Jarvis could be one such candidate.

Wtf happened to him anyway?

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Cardiff Council has remained Labour, but there are recounts going on at one of the stations as the difference between 1st and 5th in one ward is only 8 votes. And this is the current Labour leader's ward. Could be a second election in a row where the sitting council leader loses his seat.

Lib Dem have lost seats, it would seem to the Conservatives are now the second biggest party in the Council.

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell told Nick Robinson on the Today programme that Jeremy Corbyn’s recent visit to Cardiff helped Labour retain control of the council in the city.

“This issue about Jeremy Corbyn, in the very place he campaigned, which was Cardiff, we have positive news and held on to it. We won Cardiff where he specifically campaigned.”

He said: “It has been tough – there is no doubt about that. It hasn’t been the wipeout that people predicted or the polls predicted. In some areas there has been mixed results.

“In other areas we have done much better than people expected."

Hmm... I'm not sure if retaining control, albeit with a smaller majority, is a lot to praise.

 

[PJV3]

I thought those UKIP voters were previously mostly Labour though?

I always thought it was the opposite, with a Labour element being a more recent thing.

 

[Plasma]

Most people just want a quiet life and stability which is what the Tories are offering.

I guess the strong and stable mantra really is rubbing off on some people.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Wtf happened to him anyway?

He wanted to take a backseat in politics so he'd have time to spend with his children while they grew up. Which is fair enough, really.

 

[Ghost]

UKIP has turned into some kind of perverse Robin Hood, stealing poor voters from Labour and gifting them to the Tories.

 

[KingSnake]

So the Labour strategy of not contesting anything Brexit related is not really convincing any Brexiter?

 

[Huw_Dawson]

So the Labour strategy of not contesting anything Brexit related is not really convincing any Brexiter?

Unsurprisingly, no.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Most people just want a quiet life and stability which is what the Tories are offering.

Exactly, and its no surprise most see the Tories as the most competent party to run the country. I mean just look at Labour for the past few years. Policies are nice and all but at the end of the day its just talk, talk that votes have to trust and its clear voter confidence is at a near all time low with Labour.

 

[*Splinter]

I would imagine Labour's woolly stance on Brexit has driven kippers to the Cons.

I think a few years of consuming right wing talking points would have done that anyway.

 

[PJV3]

I guess the strong and stable mantra really is rubbing off on some people.

We are destabilising the European political and economic situation in a stable kind of way.

 

[Ushojax]

Wtf happened to him anyway?

He's not willing to give up his family life, which is what's required. I'm not sure any of the touted leaders have that almost delusional level of ambition that Blair had. They need to find someone who is willing to focus on nothing other than getting into power, someone who will sweat blood and do whatever is necessary. Someone who will accept their life being examined in excoriating detail every single day.

People like Jarvis, Umunna, etc, I don't see it in their eyes, they don't have it in them. The next Labour PM will probably be someone we've never really heard of.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't think any Labour candidate could win right now. The problems are structural, and go far beyond who holds the leadership. I mean: Corbyn is getting almost exactly the same share of the vote as Miliband, and his leadership approval ratings are almost exactly the same as Miliband's were. Marginally worse in both cases, but we're talking 2-3% - it's not the difference between loss and win. And they were (at least in positioning) very different candidates from different wings of the party. I've seen internal party polling that tested how Labour would do under different leaders, and there's... almost no change. The party doesn't just need a change of leadership, it needs a big structural change in what it stands for and who represents it - at all levels. And it won't be in a way that the lefty metropolitan young graduate liberal types that frequent GAF want. Labour will be more anti-immigration, more anti-EU, more against globalisation, less concerned about environmentalism, and so on.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

The next Labour PM will probably be someone we've never really heard of.

I don't think another Labour PM is on the cards, unless the moderates rip power away from the hard left.

 

[PJV3]

I don't think any Labour candidate could win right now. The problems are structural, and go far beyond who holds the leadership. I mean: Corbyn is getting almost exactly the same share of the vote as Miliband, and his leadership approval ratings are almost exactly the same as Miliband's were. Marginally worse in both cases, but we're talking 2-3% - it's not the difference between loss and win. And they were (at least in positioning) very different candidates from different wings of the party. I've seen internal party polling that tested how Labour would do under different leaders, and there's... almost no change. The party doesn't just need a change of leadership, it needs a big structural change in what it stands for and who represents it - at all levels. And it won't be in a way that the lefty metropolitan young graduate liberal types that frequent GAF want. Labour will be more anti-immigration, more anti-EU, more against globalisation, less concerned about environmentalism, and so on.

I think they should just let the people blow off some steam and see how brexit goes. Small adjustments are fine but there should be a limit to vote chasing.

 

[kmag]

UK is a full founding member

You don't reapply to the WTO, you do your own schedules and they don't have to be certified.

Please read
https://www.instituteforgovernment....hings-know-about-world-trade-organization-wto

They do have to be certified, they just don't have to be immediately certified and you can trade in the interim (but what that doesn't tell you is that WTO members can raise countervailing measures against non certified schedules prior to going through the dispute process, the UK would then have to prove that their non certified schedules were valid. This is opposed to the normal method where the party taking countervailing measures have to prove the damage)

There are two ways disputes about the UK’s scheduled commitments can arise.

First, if another WTO Member considers that the UK has modified its schedules to its detriment, it may be able to convince the UK to commence negotiations on compensation. Any such compensation will be limited to the harm allegedly caused. There may be none. If the other member is dissatisfied, it can unilaterally suspend concessions with respect to the UK. But this must also be limited to the alleged damage. If the UK disagrees that there has been any damage, it can bring dispute settlement proceedings. Ultimately, the matter will be decided by a panel (cf Canada – Zinc).

Second, another WTO Member may consider that the UK is violating its scheduled commitments with respect to a given product, service or service supplier. In this event, it can commence dispute settlement proceedings. Again, any such case must be limited to any harm caused, and the same applies to any retaliation. In the end, this will come down to dispute settlement as well.

 

[Maledict]

I don't think any Labour candidate could win right now. The problems are structural, and go far beyond who holds the leadership. I mean: Corbyn is getting almost exactly the same share of the vote as Miliband, and his leadership approval ratings are almost exactly the same as Miliband's were. Marginally worse in both cases, but we're talking 2-3% - it's not the difference between loss and win. And they were (at least in positioning) very different candidates from different wings of the party. I've seen internal party polling that tested how Labour would do under different leaders, and there's... almost no change. The party doesn't just need a change of leadership, it needs a big structural change in what it stands for and who represents it - at all levels. And it won't be in a way that the lefty metropolitan young graduate liberal types that frequent GAF want. Labour will be more anti-immigration, more anti-EU, more against globalisation, less concerned about environmentalism, and so on.

I do agree that, barring some form of massive collapse, this is where labour needs to shift too to win back Tory voters. Which I loathe with every fibre of my being, but there just aren't enough lefty liberals in the UK to elect a prime minister.

I mean, maybe after 15 more years of Tory rule one can win as the electorate simply desires change, but I'm not hopeful.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Have you heard him speak? So far I'm not convinced at all. He's amazing on paper but seems to really lack charisma.

I haven't, but considering the current landscape of politics and who the current leader is, charisma doesn't seem all that important to voters any more...but I get your point.

I don't know if we'll ever see someone as charismatic as Blair again. Love or hate the bastard, he knew how to turn on the charm and win people over. Could have had a great legacy too had it not been for Iraq and a few questionable domestic policies.

Unless you can put him and his children in the hyperbolic time chamber... or the other way around. Or something.

Wtf happened to him anyway?

He wanted to take a backseat in politics so he'd have time to spend with his children while they grew up. Which is fair enough, really.

Yeah, can't really speak ill of the guy for wanting to spend time with the family but hopefully he tries for the leadership at some point. Even if he is a charisma vacuum, he'd be better than what we currently have. Hell, an inanimate object would be better than what we have now...

 

[danowat]

I don't think any Labour candidate could win right now. The problems are structural, and go far beyond who holds the leadership. I mean: Corbyn is getting almost exactly the same share of the vote as Miliband, and his leadership approval ratings are almost exactly the same as Miliband's were. Marginally worse in both cases, but we're talking 2-3% - it's not the difference between loss and win. And they were (at least in positioning) very different candidates from different wings of the party. I've seen internal party polling that tested how Labour would do under different leaders, and there's... almost no change. The party doesn't just need a change of leadership, it needs a big structural change in what it stands for and who represents it - at all levels. And it won't be in a way that the lefty metropolitan young graduate liberal types that frequent GAF want. Labour will be more anti-immigration, more anti-EU, more against globalisation, less concerned about environmentalism, and so on.

They've been lurching to the right for years, they might as well just go the whole hog and call themselves Cons v2.

I don't know what the answer is, obviously myself, and the majority of GAF, are in the minority, and the populus aren't interested in the same things we are, it's quite a tough thing to stomach, but what can you do, the writing is on the wall.

I don't think becoming a hard left party will help either, because the right is so ingrained in the UK's psyche, that any push to the left will be met with resistance.

They need a whole re-jig, but what that is, I've no idea.

 

[Maledict]

I would definitely vote for an inanimate carbon rod over Corbyn.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't think Labour needs to lurch away from the left, I think they need to lurch away from the liberal. Part of May's appeal is that (at least in terms of her positioning), she's dumping the Conservatives' austerity stuff, which nobody ever really liked and mostly skated by on being sold as a necessary evil. People like May promising she'll protect British business and guard the markets and announce energy price caps; that bit was never the problem.

 

[kmag]

It's simple. There's just a massive amount of right wing cunts in England. They vote for other right wing cunts. Occasionally Labour will convince enough of the right wing cunts that they are convincing enough right wing cunts to be the right wing cunts in charge, normally that only happens when the current right wing cunts in charge become such massive right wing cunts that the right wing cunts who vote them in say "I know we're right wing cunts, but we're not that right wing, cunts"

 

[Ushojax]

I don't think another Labour PM is on the cards, unless the moderates rip power away from the hard left.

Of course there will be another Labour PM in the next decades, no party holds power indefinitely. After a string of Tory governments there will be nobody to blame but them and a change will happen. The question is whether Labour can find a leader and a message that can topple a Tory government in the next few years or will they just crawl in there by default when the public just want a change in 10-15 years time.

What us left-leaning folk need to realise is that winning is all that matters. You say what you have to say to win and then you backslide on whatever you want, like Trump is doing. I'm sure David Cameron wasn't using gay marriage as a campaign pledge in 2010 but he made it happen. If Labour have to slip on an ugly mask to win, then do it. Without power they cannot help anyone. Labour are not going to get anywhere without trying to bring the working-class and liberal wings back together, if that means a centrist outlook then so be it. They need to find a message that unifies the party, enthuses the public and can be delivered by a charismatic and credible leader. It can be anything as long as it gets them into power.

 

[Chinner]

Join us.

Spoiler

TEFL isn't exotic, but stable depending on where you go, and at the least can be a foot in the door to getting something more interesting

Well, it's something in the back of my mind. My partner and I did actually teach in Bangkok for about 6 months 4 years ago, and we both have CELTAS as I said before. Thailand was a too far out, and my girlfriend felt a little disconnected from her family.

She's pretty keen to get out there again, and would like to Europe as its a similar culture and closer to family. To be honest, it's me dragging my feet about this. We have both settled during this time, and we have a house and cats to consider. I've also accumulated belongings which I'm not keen to get rid of. Also a little debt to sort out but that shouldn't take long to resolve.

So Europe seems the most sensible option, but we're obviously leaving that. No idea if we should rush out and get there before or after Brexit.

Luckily we can kinda get around this, my gfs father is Irish and my grandfather was Italian. We could get European passports but there will be a decent cost attached to it (especially mine as I have little documentation of my grandfather). That will delay us getting out too.

I'm pretty stumped, not sure what to do really. That's not even taking into consideration the job.

 

[PJV3]

It's simple. There's just a massive amount of right wing cunts in England. They vote for other right wing cunts. Occasionally Labour will convince enough of the right wing cunts that they are convincing enough right wing cunts to be the right wing cunts in charge, normally that only happens when the current right wing cunts in charge become such massive right wing cunts that the right wing cunts who vote them in say "I know we're right wing cunts, but we're not that right wing, cunts"

UKIP collapsing and returning to the Tories might speed up the last part.

 

[Little Old Man]

Mayoral election turnouts for Liverpool and Manchester under 30%. It's probably in line with local elections more generally, but I would have hoped for closer to 40/45%, given how often people in these parts moan about power being concentrated in the south East, and a lack of democratic accountability.

That said, it wasn't well advertised tbh, the general election has robbed most of the attention, and the general atmosphere of apathy towards politics is huge.


@chinner. It's a big decision, but I'd get Irish passports sorted ASAP, giving you options for the future, and therefore more time to think it through.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

Most people just want a quiet life and stability which is what the Tories are offering.

It's what they're publicising. What they're actually offering is entirely different.