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UK PoliGAF: General election thread of LibCon Coalitionage

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jas0nuk

Member
YouGov

CON 34 (+1), LAB 29 (+2), LD 28 (-3)

LD bubble popped? More polls later on. Tonight's debate will be more important than the narrative set by the polls, though, of course.
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Parl: Green are further left than Lib Dems. They would not join a Conservative coalition.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
pGuHo.png
 

Empty

Member
jas0nuk said:
YouGov

CON 34 (+1), LAB 29 (+2), LD 28 (-3)

LD bubble popped? More polls later on. Tonight's debate will be more important than the narrative set by the polls, though, of course.
-

It sure looks like they lost their momentum, thanks likely to the this week's barrage of negative media coverage as well as the post-debate glow deteriorating in people's minds. Guess we'll have to see if they start the surge up again after tonight's debate. That they lost the majority of those points to Labour is weird though, i'd expect them to go to the Tories.
 

Parl

Member
jas0nuk said:
YouGov

CON 34 (+1), LAB 29 (+2), LD 28 (-3)

LD bubble popped? More polls later on. Tonight's debate will be more important than the narrative set by the polls, though, of course.
Not too good, but there's plenty of time to go. Cons will have to do a lot better than that to avoid a hung parliament, though they could end up with it Lab/LibDem not being enough for the 324.

Parl: Green are further left than Lib Dems. They would not join a Conservative coalition.
I know. Just thought it was a funny combination, and one I'd be curious to see if it was a much less serious matter.

Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
Oh I was kidding about me using your quote as a chance to make fun of Scotland, Wales, or NI.
No need to clarify. Humour is often easy to detect.
 

Chinner

Banned
jas0nuk said:
YouGov

CON 34 (+1), LAB 29 (+2), LD 28 (-3)
It's all over for the Lib Dems! They might as well pack their bags and call it a day!

You're so eager to call it when we're still 2 weeks away from polling day.
 

Empty

Member
Parl said:
Never been to any of them, so I can't comment on what they're like.

Back on topic, who would prefer a hung parliament to either Labour or Cons having an outright majority? And if so, what would be your preferred coalition? Lab/Lib, Con/Lib, or even Con/Green/UKIP, with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister.

I would like to see a hung parliament as i feel it is the best way to get this country moving forwards, as it would allow LD policies, especially regarding electoral reform, to be put in place. I don't buy into the fear-mongering over a hung parliament, though short term it obviously isn't as desirable as a majority for market stability, i think its threat is overstated and that other things are more important. As for the coalition partner, i would like to see whichever one offers the LD's the best deal in terms of implementing their policies. I feel that this is most likely to be Labour, i think it's impossible for the tories to offer as good a deal, but would quite like to see Brown given the boot in the agreement.
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
Empty said:
It sure looks like they lost their momentum, thanks likely to the this week's barrage of negative media coverage as well as the post-debate glow deteriorating in people's minds. Guess we'll have to see if they start the surge up again after tonight's debate. That they lost the majority of those points to Labour is weird though, i'd expect them to go to the Tories.

No, all the results for all 3 parties are in the margin of error, it's to be expected. It's pointless going off daily polls.

The fact they are still up 10% on where they were pre-debate and manifesto suggests that momentum is still very much with them, as does the current Twitter backlash regarding the press stories.
 

Empty

Member
DECK'ARD said:
No, all the results for all 3 parties are in the margin of error, it's to be expected. It's pointless going off daily polls.

The fact they are still up 10% on where they were pre-debate and manifesto suggests that momentum is still very much with them, as does the current Twitter backlash regarding the press stories.

When i say, 'lost their momentum', i don't mean 'bubble burst'.

I mean instead of continuing to rise further and further, as they were threatening to do earlier this week, they are stabilizing at about 30 points (+-2).
 

wave dial

Completely unable to understand satire
Chinner said:
It's all over for the Lib Dems! They might as well pack their bags and call it a day!

You're so eager to call it when we're still 2 weeks away from polling day.
Usually his posts are positive about Tories and negative about Labor (and now Lib Dem).
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
Empty said:
When i say, 'lost their momentum', i don't mean 'bubble burst'.

I mean instead of continuing to rise further and further, as they were threatening to do earlier this week, they are stabilizing at about 30 points (+-2).

I'd say that's more to do with the election campaign being totally centred round the debates now, and a lot of people waiting for tonight to see if their opinion of Clegg and the Lib Dems is solidified.

The reaction to the Lib Dems surge would always be a solidifying to some degree of the Tory and Labour votes, but the fact there hasn't been much of that (and indeed the averages of both parties are still falling to almost historic lows) suggests that support for them is weak. Soft support for the 2 main parties has been in evidence for a long time now, they haven't communicated their policies or reasons to vote for them very strongly at all, and been too focussed on tit-for-tat negative reasoning for not voting for the other.

The Lib Dem support is only soft because it's a unexpected factor that in the eyes of most of the public came from nowhere. It has much more chance of being solidified because it is not dogged by months of stuff that has already coloured opinion.

I actually think tonight's debate is the most important of the 3 for all the parties, but especially the Tories and the Lib Dems. It's make-or-break in a sense. The 3rd debate may be seen by the most people being on the BBC, and the closest to the election, but tonight is what will set the narrative and the tone going into it. Any damage or positive effects done tonight will most likely be permanent.
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
Shanadeus said:
Please do not let Clegg screw it up now, he need to perform even better than the last debate.

I don't think he has to perform better, merely hold his own. After the barrage of negative stories, holding his own would be enough for the underdog to score a victory. He has to play Trident and the Euro/EU well (which when properly explained a lot of people agree with or atleast thinks sound reasonable). If he doesn't explain their position well though it is a danger for him, but he has a very strong footing on Iraq and Afghanistan.

Cameron is the one who needs to give a massively improved performance. He has to come across as strong, a Prime Minister in waiting, which means going on the attack and showing he's about principles not PR. But Cameron isn't very popular when he does attack, and has a habit of using empty phrases or buzzwords which makes it look like political point scoring and the same old politics. If he doesn't come out tonight as someone people think would be a strong Prime Minister, and a person they trust, his game is pretty much up apart from to diehard Tories.

Brown can get away with 'don't rock the boat', but he could come unstuck regarding military issues. Especially funding. If he trots out his figures and makes blanket statements like he has never denied the military funding etc. he could come out quite bad. If Brown carries on appearing like he's in his own little world, and defeatist by his cosying up to the Lib Dems, you could see a further fall in Labour's popularity as people see the Lib Dems as the more likeable alternative to the Tories.
 
Zenith said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1557526/British-death-rate-in-Iraq-higher- than-US.html

From the same article

Britain has 5,500 troops serving in Iraq, and suffered 23 fatalities between February 5 and June 24. The US has 165,000, and lost 463 over the same period.

In that time period, the US suffered more than the total amount British causalities in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
 
DECK'ARD said:
I don't think he has to perform better, merely hold his own. After the barrage of negative stories, holding his own would be enough for the underdog to score a victory. He has to play Trident and the Euro/EU well (which when properly explained a lot of people agree with or atleast thinks sound reasonable). If he doesn't explain their position well though it is a danger for him, but he has a very strong footing on Iraq and Afghanistan.
You underestimate the strength of Euroscepticism in this country. The best thing to do would be to rule out introducing the euro for the indefinite future (which is electorally unpopular) and sidestep the issue of the EU altogether other than promising an in or out referendum on EU membership.

Cameron is the one who needs to give a massively improved performance. He has to come across as strong, a Prime Minister in waiting, which means going on the attack and showing he's about principles not PR.
Rubbish, he needs simple but effective summarised points and direct eye contact with the camera but no personal attacks - which is what helped Clegg last week. He also needs to keep reminding the viewers that Labour and the Liberal Democrats broke their manifesto pledges to call a referendum on the EU treaty. He will need to sidestep the trident renewal by saying he will have a 'defence review' and strongly suggest that he is not committed to the long haul in Afghanistan. If Clegg hints at the latter, it will help him too.

Brown can get away with 'don't rock the boat', but he could come unstuck regarding military issues.
No he can't get away with that. Brown is fast becoming irrelevant, I haven't heard much about Brown or any new Labour policies at all this week. No matter how often commenters go on about the importance of substance over style - this election (and all future elections) will be won on style. Labour really needs to step up and vigorously fight their corner if they wish to remain a decent electoral force next month. As someone who hates Labour though and wants to see them them obliterated, I hope Brown and Labour continues to remain insignificant and on the back foot.
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
Good old Stephen Fry:

"Frankly I'm tempted to vote Lib Dem now. If we let the Telegraph and Mail win, well, freedom and Britain die."
 

thefro

Member
jas0nuk said:
YouGov

CON 34 (+1), LAB 29 (+2), LD 28 (-3)

LD bubble popped? More polls later on. Tonight's debate will be more important than the narrative set by the polls, though, of course.
-

Parl: Green are further left than Lib Dems. They would not join a Conservative coalition.

I wouldn't get too worked up about movements within the MOE of a poll from day to day. The trend over a longer period of time is more important.
 

Varion

Member
DECK'ARD said:
Good old Stephen Fry:

"Frankly I'm tempted to vote Lib Dem now. If we let the Telegraph and Mail win, well, freedom and Britain die."
If they're good enough for Stephen Fry, they're good enough for everyone else.

My laptop is set up on its tower of boxes in the living room in front of the TV, ready!
 

Varion

Member
They were interviewing some guy who said that loads of people registered to vote after the debate, especially young people, which can only be a good thing. I don't know who you are, but I agree!
 

scotcheggz

Member
jamieson87 said:
Kay burley

It may just be becuase I have it open in another tab and I'm not paying full attention, but man she seems really horrible.

So, whose got their money on Clegg tonight? I think it is going to go much the same way as last week. Cameron and Brown have to be so careful with the balance in their speech towards Clegg. Thy are likely to want to put him down a notch, but too tough and I don't think the British public will dig that as he is on the rise and a bit of an underdog. Conversely, they can't be saying "I agree with Nick" anymore can they? Going to be interesting to see how they've all changed their approach since the last debate.
 

Empty

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
Oh can someone give me a rundown of the political tilt of various British newspapers?
I know Sun=NY Post=Populist Far Right and Guardian=Socialist Far Left

tabloids

(3)daily mirror - left wing populist
(1) the sun - right wing populist
(2) daily mail - very right wing, supported hitler in the 1930s
(4) the daily express - extremely right wing

broadsheets

(2) times - center-right, supported new labour in previous elections though
(3)guardian - center-left
(4)independent - centre-left, but less partisan than the guardian
(1) telegraph - right wing, loves the tories

numbers indicate circulation rankings, though the right wing papers have much much bigger circulations than the left wing ones in numbers.
 

scotcheggz

Member
Chinner said:
need to find a smooth source. i think bbc news is showing it as wel.

I'm pretty sure I heard it from you last debate, so you might be using it now, but tvcatchup.com is going well for me.
 
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