The problem with Wayne's post isn't that the poll is wrong - 35/34 is not out of line at all with the general picture of a slim Labour lead. The problem is the conclusion that 35/34 would give Labour a majority, which was reached because they've applied a Uniform National Swing. If the picture across the country was indeed uniform, then Labour would stand a reasonably good chance at a majority. However, the picture is very much *not* uniform. This is because of Scotland. The SNP would have done incredibly well if they take 3.5% of the UK vote; however, if they did so they would win around 7.5% of the UK seats. Their vote is very concentrated in particular areas and has a massive drag on the Labour Party in particular. I've been saying it for a while - Scotland is where this election will be decided. England's voting intentions have barely fluctuated in quite literally almost 2 years, I don't see what would change that.
I think the most likely outcome of this election is probably a Labour minority propped up by an SNP bloc that defends them in confidence votes and provides support for things it agrees with without going into an actual coalition proper. The Liberal Democrats may possibly be brought in to a coalition, but Labour would prefer to avoid it if possible. If Labour cannot form a workable government, there will be a second election, purely because the Conservatives think they can win out. Predicting that outcome of that now would be a foolish move to make, far too much will have occurred in the meanwhile.
Labour would probably accept scrapping Trident or at least organizing for it to be moved to an English port if it meant they could stay in office. They are perilously low on funds and will not to be able to fight a second election particularly well if it happens under a year away from this one. They will accept most things the SNP asks for, I feel. I think they'd particularly accept this one because I suspect it would backfire quite spectacularly on the SNP if the Clyde Naval base's importance to the Royal Navy was reduced - it props up a lot of the local economy for the area, and I don't think people would be happy at the SNP if Scottish jobs are effectively moved to England. You have to remember the SNP's voting demographic has hugely changed. The middle-class intellectuals that used to be the SNP's mainstay, who weren't involved in industry and often have pacifist foreign policy stances and therefore would oppose Trident, are now outnumbered by the new working class influx that followed the referendum, who are very much dependent on the industrial side of shipping and involvement with things like the Royal Navy and often support a more pugilistic role for the United Kingdom.
