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[killer_clank]

Most people I speak to who don't like AV generally support one party in paricular. Me on the other hand, I've voted for SNP, Lib Dems, and I think Labour (European election, lol) on different occasions, and I think AV is a great idea.

On a different note, Tavish Scott (Leader of the Scottish Lib Dems) has come out and more or less said he's independent of the party's London/Westminster leadership, and doesn't like what they're doing. I wonder if there's going to be a split in the party at some point in the future...

The lib dems in Scotland are gonna go single digit seat numbers I reckon. The SNP have a fairly good chance of taking some of their constituencies in the north and Labour taking them in urban areas.

In fact, according to current polling, if the Greens get one or 2 percent more, they could end up with more seats.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

SNP minority government with Con giving supply and confidence. A full coalition with Con would be toxic for Salmond, but a supply and confidence deal would be similar to the current arrangement.

 

[Sage00]

I have a feeling Labour are gonna walk the Scottish elections this time. Despite the SNP's great record they've shown over this term(which'll encourage me to vote for them, and I didn't last time), at the last election Labour were at their lowest point in history and throwing a smear campaign as damage limitation, yet the SNP only won by a single seat. This time they're on a resurgence, and I just can't see it going any other way than a decisive Labour victory.

Though the question then becomes this: who supply the votes for their bills to go through? The Lib Dems may not even have enough seats to help out in a small capacity like they and the Tories do with the SNP currently. Will they have to entice the Greens? The SNP? This could lead to some very interesting cross-party politics, either that or a complete disaster.

 

[killer_clank]

SNP minority government with Con giving supply and confidence. A full coalition with Con would be toxic for Salmond, but a supply and confidence deal would be similar to the current arrangement.

I reckon this is the current outcome too. I hate the Conservatives, but to be fair to them, they've been a good Opposition here (as opposed to Labour, who simply vote bills down because of who they're from) and got some good concessions out of it. At the budget negotiations, they dig in, find some money and get a consession out of it, hence they vote yes on a budget they still don't completely agree on.

Actually the SNP constitution bans them from going into coalitions with the Tories, I think.

 

[Dambrosi]

Off topic to our AV discussions:

I think that the Liberal Democrats are now well and truly in bed with the Tories. On their own they can no longer stand due to the loss of their student base. My question is, should they perhaps continue as a strand of the Conservatives, offering liberal social policy ideas to what must be considered a broadly liberalising Conservative party?

Obviously this wouldn't be an official merger, but more a relucatnce to work with Labour and a willingness to work with the Tories. I suppose if the Conservatives gained enough traction in the polls they'd probably ditch the LDs and go it alone, but I do sometimes wonder if Cameron might like using the LDs as an excuse to bring in some liberal policies, he clearly isn't a Thatcherite or anything.

Ask their core membership what they'd think of your proposal. I couldn't guarantee a positive answer.

More to the point, ask the ex-SDP members from the Alliance/pre-Lib Dem days what they'd do in such a circumstance.

Oh, and did you catch Cameron (a Thacherite jackal in moderate sheep's clothing if ever there was one) on the BBC News telling people to "vote with their gut" on the AV issue? Yeah, OK, Dave, I'll be voting against your lot, then.

Oh, and zomgwtfbbq: An SNP minority with Tory S&C is possible, but a full coalition isn't going to happen, for the reasons that killer_clank just gave. Remember: The Tories are the English, and the English are the enemy!

 

[killer_clank]

I have a feeling Labour are gonna walk the Scottish elections this time. Despite the SNP's great record they've shown over this term(which'll encourage me to vote for them, and I didn't last time), at the last election Labour were at their lowest point in history and throwing a smear campaign as damage limitation, yet the SNP only won by a single seat. This time they're on a resurgence, and I just can't see it going any other way than a decisive Labour victory.

Though the question then becomes this: who supply the votes for their bills to go through? The Lib Dems may not even have enough seats to help out in a small capacity like they and the Tories do with the SNP currently. Will they have to entice the Greens? The SNP? This could lead to some very interesting cross-party politics, either that or a complete disaster.

A few months ago, it was definitely looking that way, but the latest polls have suggested the gap was being closed, and the one yesterday had them ahead.

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/news/Alex-Salmond-in-poll-position.6753202.jp

Part of Labour's problem is that anyone with actual political talent is a shoe-in for Westminster, leaving them with a lack of talent up here, and their lacklustre campaign isn't doing them any favours.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I reckon this is the current outcome too. I hate the Conservatives, but to be fair to them, they've been a good Opposition here (as opposed to Labour, who simply vote bills down because of who they're from) and got some good concessions out of it. At the budget negotiations, they dig in, find some money and get a consession out of it, hence they vote yes on a budget they still don't completely agree on.

Actually the SNP constitution bans them from going into coalitions with the Tories, I think.

The reason Labour do this is because they are the most tribal partisan party in politics. They can't stand it when anyone else is in government. They exist to play dirty politics and smear their opponents. Look at the current approval ratings for the leaders, 97% of Labour supporters think David Cameron is doing a bad job, don't get me wrong I think he could be doing better, but that is ridiculous. It's why I take government approval with a very large pinch of salt. Labour just say they disapprove for the sake of disapproving, just like the party oppose for the sake of opposing.

 

[killer_clank]

The reason Labour do this is because they are the most tribal partisan party in politics. They can't stand it when anyone else is in government. They exist to play dirty politics and smear their opponents. Look at the current approval ratings for the leaders, 97% of Labour supporters think David Cameron is doing a bad job, don't get me wrong I think he could be doing better, but that is ridiculous. It's why I take government approval with a very large pinch of salt. Labour just say they disapprove for the sake of disapproving, just like the party oppose for the sake of opposing.

The last straw for me with Labour opposing for the sake of opposing was the last Scottish budget. It wasn't going to be passed so 25000 apprenticeships (which is actually more than they asked for) were added to the bill to get them to come around, and in the end they still(!) voted it down.

And now their campaign is based around jobs and getting people into work. Couldn't make that shit up, and it really put me off even considering voting for them this time round.

 

[Guerrillas in the Mist]

The lib dems in Scotland are gonna go single digit seat numbers I reckon. The SNP have a fairly good chance of taking some of their constituencies in the north and Labour taking them in urban areas.

In fact, according to current polling, if the Greens get one or 2 percent more, they could end up with more seats.

Yeah, doesn't look good for them, both up here, and in Westminster. Ditching Charles Kennedy has been a terrible mistake for the Lib Dems. He was a likeable politician who didn't seem forced or two faced, which is something you rarely, if ever, see in high-level politicians. He had a alcohol problem (which he had solved by that time) and of course, he got stabbed in the back by his own party.

 

[Sage00]

Love Charles Kennedy, such a good guy. When he was running for rector a couple months ago (Glasgow Uni) he came over to talk to a couple of my friends and I in the union. We had already voted for him, but he stayed to chat for a bit anyway. At one point during the conversation I inadvertently glanced at the empty pint glass and his hand, and he responded with "Don't worry, it was water". :lol

 

[zomgbbqftw]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stunner-sp-revises-us-outlook-negative

You read that right: S&P just revised its US outlook to negative. EURUSD surges on what can be seen as revolutionary news...

Now will Ed Balls please shut up about how the deficit reduction plan isn't required...

 

[killer_clank]

Love Charles Kennedy, such a good guy. When he was running for rector a couple months ago (Glasgow Uni) he came over to talk to a couple of my friends and I in the union. We had already voted for him, but he stayed to chat for a bit anyway. At one point during the conversation I inadvertently glanced at the empty pint glass and his hand, and he responded with "Don't worry, it was water". :lol

Oh wow, another person from Glasgow Uni.

I've only met him once, but it was in the union too. I was incredibly drunk, and went up to him asking for a high 5 and repeatedly telling him he was a legend.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Oh wow, another person from Glasgow Uni.

I've only met him once, but it was in the union too. I was incredibly drunk, and went up to him asking for a high 5 and repeatedly telling him he was a legend.

That's awesome. I had a similar experience with Robin van Persie!

 

[Wes]

^ haha Charles is great.

 

[Empty]

still don't know who i'm going to vote for in the scottish elections. need to educate myself on scots politics as i mainly just focus on the overall uk stuff.

on the BBC News telling people to "vote with their gut" on the AV issue?

yeah i saw that on the website earlier. such a silly argument.

The prime minister will say that too much of the debate about the alternative vote (AV) has so far been dominated by "scientific" evaluation of the two systems' merits.

"But for me, politics shouldn't be some mind-bending exercise. It's about what you feel in your gut - about the values you hold dear and the beliefs you instinctively have," he will say.

"And I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong."

 

[killer_clank]

still don't know who i'm going to vote for in the scottish elections. need to educate myself on scots politics as i mainly just focus on the overall uk stuff.



yeah i saw that on the website earlier. such a silly argument.

I used the Scottish Vote Counter.

http://www.scottishvotecompass.org/main

Got 56% SNP, 52% Green, 11% Lib Dem, 4% Labour and -44% Conservative lol.

 

[Guerrillas in the Mist]

I got a "No to AV" leaflet in through the post today, absolute scaremongering bullshit. On the front was a picture of 4 runners on a track going through the finish line, and an arrow pointing to the runner in last place, with the caption "The winner under AV".

Absolutely retarded. The system at the moment means that a lot of seats can be obtained by getting a third or less of the vote. Is that really fair and democratic?

 

[mclem]

I got a "No to AV" leaflet in through the post today, absolute scaremongering bullshit. On the front was a picture of 4 runners on a track going through the finish line, and an arrow pointing to the runner in last place, with the caption "The winner under AV".

I suppose you could do the counterpart - same scene, but not at the finish line yet, with the leader clearly falling; he's "The winner under FPTP".

 

[killer_clank]

I got a "No to AV" leaflet in through the post today, absolute scaremongering bullshit. On the front was a picture of 4 runners on a track going through the finish line, and an arrow pointing to the runner in last place, with the caption "The winner under AV".

Absolutely retarded. The system at the moment means that a lot of seats can be obtained by getting a third or less of the vote. Is that really fair and democratic?

I got the same leaflet. Talk about rage inducing. They print the blatant lies about cost that include electronic vote counters that aren't going to be used.

FPTP is not democratic. Wikipedia defines democracy as "a form of government in which all citizens have an equal say in the decisions that affect their lives".

Y'know, like FPTP totally does(!). In 2010 my vote was worth something like 0.3 of a vote. Fuck the No to AV campaign. Lying bullshitting false truth spinning cunts.

 

[Meadows]

I used the Scottish Vote Counter.

http://www.scottishvotecompass.org/main

Got 56% SNP, 52% Green, 11% Lib Dem, 4% Labour and -44% Conservative lol.

did it for chuckles (will be voting in Wales)

LD: 27%
Green: 19%
SNP: 16%
Labour: -8%
CON: -13%

 

[scarybore]

I got a "No to AV" leaflet in through the post today, absolute scaremongering bullshit. On the front was a picture of 4 runners on a track going through the finish line, and an arrow pointing to the runner in last place, with the caption "The winner under AV".

I got that today, was a good laugh but you just know so many people will eat it up regardless rather than researching the pros and cons themselves.

I used the Scottish Vote Counter.

http://www.scottishvotecompass.org/main

23% Green, 22% SNP, 20% Lib Dem, 18% Labour and -9% Conservative. I'll be voting Lib Dem for what it's worth, one of the relative few I imagine.

 

[Dambrosi]

I used the Scottish Vote Counter.

http://www.scottishvotecompass.org/main

Got 56% SNP, 52% Green, 11% Lib Dem, 4% Labour and -44% Conservative lol.

Just for fun:

Greens - 51%
SNP - 39%
LDs - 16%
Labour - 5%
Conservative - -35%

Wow, I'm a bit of a commie pinko bastard, aren't I.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Green: 57%
SNP: 45%
Lib Dems: 12%
Labour: -1%
Conservatives: -43%

Wow, I'm a bit of a commie pinko bastard, aren't I.

Join the club. We have jackets. Well, one jacket, but we share it out equally.

 

[killer_clank]

Shit, just found out I'm not gonna be able to vote
My parents didn't return the form last year and it's too late to register

Gutted.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Channel 4 News are doing a piece on how Nick Clegg existing is sabotaging the AV campaign. John Snow gave a nice little summary at the start of the show. It's odd to hear someone describe how the system works without adding "and so, uh, the person in last place wins! Ain't that mental?"

 

[Empty]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/18/support-av-collapsing-guardian-icm-poll

oh dear. it's not av not winning that gets me most, the change isn't that huge either way, it's knowing that the lies and distortions of the no to av campaign and its mouthpieces in the press convinced so many people. that's hard for me to take.

 

[phisheep]

I used the Scottish Vote Counter.

http://www.scottishvotecompass.org/main

+17 LibDem, +6 Green, 0 Tory, -1 Lab, -4 SNP

Mainly I suspect because I expressed no opinion on the Scottish-specific questions.

The usual bunch of crap survey questions though.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Very OT, but can someone point me in the direction of the origin of "Tell me about the rabbits?" I know it's from a movie, but can't find a video on youtube. Thanks.

 

[Dambrosi]

Very OT, but can someone point me in the direction of the origin of "Tell me about the rabbits?" I know it's from a movie, but can't find a video on youtube. Thanks.

It's a sorta-kinda quote from "Of Mice And Men" by John Steinbeck.

It's a riff on the final scene. I'm not saying any more. Read it yourself.

 

[Wes]

Should we have a new thread in the run up to the referendum? This thread is almost a year old.

 

[Parl]

Con: 32%
Lib: 24%
Lab: 2%
SNP: -10%
Green: -17%

Didn't really accept the premise of some of the questions though, and even though I spend a lot of time keeping up with political/economical/etc matters, I find myself thinking "well, I don't know enough to make a hugely confidient opinion" - I hope that's a good trait. And there's much more to competency of government than a few party political policy points. I'm not from Scotland though

And what's with the Greens? Are they hellbent on bankrupting the country long-term?

 

[killer_clank]

Con: 32%
Lib: 24%
Lab: 2%
SNP: -10%
Green: -17%

Didn't really accept the premise of some of the questions though, and even though I spend a lot of time keeping up with political/economical/etc matters, I find myself thinking "well, I don't know enough to make a hugely confidient opinion" - I hope that's a good trait. And there's much more to competency of government than a few party political policy points. I'm not from Scotland though

And what's with the Greens? Are they hellbent on bankrupting the country long-term?

The greens annoy me with their absolute aversion to any sort of road building, even when Scotland has blatant gaps in its motorway system where it'll suddenly become an A road for a while. Thankfully these are now being fixed, although the A9 up to the highlands is still a deathtrap in places.

Their plan for local taxation is good though, they plan to replace Council Tax with a land value tax, which is fairer than the current system and taxes large businesses much more. They say it would raise more money than the council tax does.

 

[phisheep]

Should we have a new thread in the run up to the referendum? This thread is almost a year old.

I kind of like this one. Helps to get to know people and besides, if we keep seting up new threads for things it will all end up harder to keep track of. There's few enough of us as it is - plus the title makes me chuckle every time.

 

[phisheep]

The greens annoy me with their absolute aversion to any sort of road building, even when Scotland has blatant gaps in its motorway system where it'll suddenly become an A road for a while. Thankfully these are now being fixed, although the A9 up to the highlands is still a deathtrap in places.

Their plan for local taxation is good though, they plan to replace Council Tax with a land value tax, which is fairer than the current system and taxes large businesses much more. They say it would raise more money than the council tax does.

The usual problem with land value taxation is the same as you get for surface area taxation for water companies, in that it disproportionately hits school playing fields, amateur sports clubs and, in Scotland, the numerous admirably cheap and accessible golf courses. Will probably also hit very hard on forestries where the income may not come through for tens of years. Just because the land you have has increased in value over the years doesn't mean you have any income to pay tax on it. In the extreme, you may have to sell off some of the land to pay the tax and then we're back into the ages-old enclosure arguments/highland clearances stuff all over again.

 

[Starwolf_UK]

oh dear. it's not av not winning that gets me most, the change isn't that huge either way, it's knowing that the lies and distortions of the no to av campaign and its mouthpieces in the press convinced so many people. that's hard for me to take.

Wouldn't be any different to a politician pledging a load of impossible dreams that everyone falls for.

Sadly the fallacy of appeal to tradition is a lot easier to convince people to say no. Then there is the fact AV might not greatly change outcomes (except it means more vote counting which means election night might take a bit longer for results to trickle in).

Still AV comes off to me as "here Nick, I know you wanted proportional representation but that'll cost too many of my buddies their job so I'll just do this to tick the coalition agreement box".

As for my thoughts. I'll be surprised if it changes outcomes (if everyone votes for one canditate only it is first past the post with more spoit ballots...which I think is a more interesting example of voter apathy than "can't be bothered") but the way I look at it is I thought an MP was meant to be about representing local matters in parliament as well as national levels under their political banner (though it should be in the context of the former). I guess it gives them a more of a "I have seal of approval as instead of having 36% of votes with 63% turnout I now have 51% of votes with 58% turnout therefore I represent local views better than I did under FPTP".

It's a sorta-kinda quote from "Of Mice And Men" by John Steinbeck.

It's a riff on the final scene. I'm not saying any more. Read it yourself.

I read that book for school (along with 90% of others apparently*) and knew it well yet only now do I get the title.

*-[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12829392]As it pretty much says, its short and has themes that resonate[/url]

 

[killer_clank]

From this 4 years ago:

To this now:

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/sco...ex-Salmond-second-term-at-May-5-election.html

Stay classy, Scottish Sun. To be fair their editorial is generally right, but you have to wonder about the motives in which they're doing it.

 

[Guerrillas in the Mist]

From this 4 years ago:

To this now:

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/sco...ex-Salmond-second-term-at-May-5-election.html

Stay classy, Scottish Sun. To be fair their editorial is generally right, but you have to wonder about the motives in which they're doing it.

The Sun are known to suck the teat of whoever takes their fancy. They went from hating Labour to being New Labour supporters, and then back to loving the Tories again. This is pretty much par for course for them.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Surprised no one posted this already:

http://www6.politicalbetting.com/in...04/18/no-campaign-moves-into-commanding-lead/

Julian Glover has just tweeted that the new ICM/Guardian poll has (unadjusted) No 44%, Yes 33%, DK 23%, giving an (adjusted) lead of NO 58% vs YES 42%.

The corresponding voting intention figures are Lab (37%), Con (35%), LD (15%), PC/SNP (5%), UKIP (3%), Green (3%) - the high figure (13%) for Others (in Nationalist parties) could be explained by the fact that differential turnout will mean greater voting intention in Wales and Scotland than in England, where not all local councils have elections.

No to AV with a big lead and Labour lead down to 2%. I think Ed Milliband made a mistake by pitching his flag against the Yes campaign yesterday, I think it has been clear since the intervention of George Osborne that No was going to win. All of those stories about dodgy funding were pretty toxic and coming from a high ranking member of the government made them carry a lot of weight with the public. For EdM to get involved at such a late stage was a miscalculation at best.

The worst night possible for EdM would be losing the Scots election to the SNP (who are going extend their poll lead now that the Scots Sun have backed them), No winning the referendum and not winning the 1300(!) local government seats. There has been some seriously bad expectations management from the Labour side because a month ago all three were dead certs by their own reckoning and now none really seem possible...

 

[radioheadrule83]

Can somebody scan or photograph that "No to AV" leaflet we were talking about earlier? The one that points an arrow at last place and says "the winner under AV"?

I'm making Vote Yes video(s) and I want to discuss it.

 

[Dr Zhivago]

All of those stories about dodgy funding were pretty toxic and coming from a high ranking member of the government made them carry a lot of weight with the public.

Because if there's one person the public trust, it's George Osborne...

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Just because Labour supporters don't like him it doesn't mean the rest of the public find him untrustworthy.

Just by being chancellor of the exchequer he is the second most important voice in the country and like it or not people listen to him as evidenced by the dramatic fall in the Yes rating since his intervention last week.

 

[Empty]

i think it's more that the interest in the referenda started ramping up in the last week thanks to the campaigns and press putting more attention on it than before, more than the impact of osbourne. i really don't think people outside of politics junkies care about that funding allegation. to give examples, i got a no2av leaflet last week, a yestoav one at the weekend, a letter from cameron urging me to vote no a few days before, arrived back at university this week to find a notoav pamphlet in my post, glancing at my dad's paper last week (telegraph) saw it full of anti-av stories and editorials and the bbc last week was full of stuff like john reid and cameron having a platform against av and cable and ed miliband for it.

 

[Dr Zhivago]

I kind of like this one. Helps to get to know people and besides, if we keep seting up new threads for things it will all end up harder to keep track of. There's few enough of us as it is - plus the title makes me chuckle every time.

Big threads kill GAF, so there'll need to be a new one at some point. Making them annual keeps it organised, I suppose.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Can somebody scan or photograph that "No to AV" leaflet we were talking about earlier? The one that points an arrow at last place and says "the winner under AV"?

Sorry about the crappy quality, I'm sure it'll improve if you resize it:

 

[Walshicus]

So, is anyone here going to vote "no", and why?

 

[radioheadrule83]

Sorry about the crappy quality, I'm sure it'll improve if you resize it:

http://i.imgur.com/gzYtm.jpg

Cheers man, thanks!

 

[Zenith]

So, is anyone here going to vote "no", and why?

Someone said they were going to out of spite and because they want to make it a referendum on the Lib Dems.

 

[Meadows]

Here's how I'm voting and why:

Referendum: Yes

Discussed extensively above

Local: Plaid Cymru

Policies on creating enterprise in North Wales, such as business parks and large projects. Also committed to furthering the spread of high speed broadband (not too much of a problem here in Llandudno, but a big problem in very rural areas like Anglesey and near Snowdonia).

Plus look at how awesome this website is! Very well made indeed:

http://www.english.aberconwy.plaidcymru.org/

Regional: Liberal Democrats

Nobody else appeals to me. Plaid Cymru want independence (obviously) and I'm against that. Only other options in that case are Labour (incompetent imo) or the Tories, who don't match my beliefs.

 

[Zoibie]

So, is anyone here going to vote "no", and why?

My friend is, and I really don't know why.

@radioheadrule83 this could be helpful

http://imgur.com/a/hgmbQ

 

[zomgbbqftw]

So, is anyone here going to vote "no", and why?

Still not decided. I'm leaning yes, but I think AV is rubbish. I want STV or full PR with thresholds. I'm not sure which result will get to that faster. Also if AV fails then the Lords reforms will be sped up to appease the Lib Dems, so we could get an elected upper chamber before the end of the decade which is much more important than AV. If AV goes through I very much doubt the Tories will be willing to give further electoral concessions and since AV is rubbish I have still not decided.