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[Dash27]

Given his unwillingness to commit, it's actually pretty funny that everybody keeps attacking him for being too sure of himself.

Other than the chance of systematic error, 538 doesn't do much that any aggregate doesn't do, although it's nice to have a clear look at the correlation between moves in various swing states. I think he's mainly popular because he produces a lot of pretty reasonable writing explaining why what's obviously likely to happen is very likely to happen. But that's pretty good given his competition.

Thanks for the answer. As for the people attacking him, it's (probably) not him it's the people citing him that's causing the reaction.

We will see if he's right soon enough. I for one am extremely skeptical of his ability to account for something like poll bias, accuracy, how undecideds will break or one candidate outperforming the polls. Again, I am skeptical of all polls in general so I'm already biased against any of these prognosticators, that they then "massage the data" makes it imo worse. Be it Nate Silver or Michael Barone... which is the only guy I can think of right now who leans right and predicts these things.

Having said all that, for fun...


FEARLESS FORECAST:

275 - 263 ROMNEY
I give him Florida, NC, VA, Colorado and OHIO. Listed in rough order of confidence.

Come at me.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blUh

 

[MetatronM]

Are there any recent polls that favor Obama in FL? All the ones I've been seeing favor Romney. The fact that Obama didn't really campaign there in the final days seems to suggest their internals are telling them it's gone.

The last 10 polls Nate Silver has listed for Florida, which are all from November, are:

R+5
O+1
Tie
Tie
R+1
O+2
O+2
O+2
O+2
R+6

So five Obama leads, 3 Romney leads, 2 ties, though two of the Romney leads seem like outliers. Nobody is likely to win by 5+ there.

 

[Deified Data]

I'm going to spend all night distracting myself from the results. I'll check back in every couple hours to see if anything noteworthy happened. I'm not going to be glued to the TV all night.

 

[Nesotenso]

This going to be nerve wracking

 

[Gary Whitta]

Public Policy Polling O+1 11/4
Ipsos tie 11/4
Mellman O+2 11/2
Marist O+2 11/1

The polling average is more like tied or Romney by half a point.

Obama was in Florida on Sunday. It's worth noting that he's travelling with Springsteen today (which presumably means by bus) and so probably forced to stay within the pretty small Rust Belt triangle he's in.

Nope, Bruce is on Air Force One!

 

[Bishman]

PoliGaf, let's decide who wins Florida. 538 is basically showing a 50 / 50 chance. Everyone flip a coin. Heads = Obama. Tails = Romney.

I got heads... Obama!

 

[Cyan]

FEARLESS FORECAST:

275 - 263 ROMNEY
I give him Florida, NC, VA, Colorado and OHIO. Listed in rough order of confidence.

Come at me.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blUh

So, just curious. If you turn out to be wrong and Silver/the polls turn out to be accurate, will it change your opinion at all? i.e. in future, will you give a little more weight to polls in your personal predictions of elections?

 

[heliosRAzi]

I decided to watch Game Change on HBOGO for this auspicious Election Eve

 

[HylianTom]

I'm going to spend all night distracting myself from the results. I'll check back in every couple hours to see if anything noteworthy happened. I'm not going to be glued to the TV all night.

Aww... I could never do that, even if my candidate were likely to lose. This is like the Super Bowl for political junkies. Once every four years is too long to not savor it. It's why I don't hesitate on taking time off and making a staycation out of it. So damn entertaining.

edit: Bishman, I got tails. :/

 

[SteveWinwood]

I'm going to spend all night distracting myself from the results. I'll check back in every couple hours to see if anything noteworthy happened. I'm not going to be glued to the TV all night.

You just gotta sit and watch and drink. It's a blast and a half.

 

[Frank the Great]

I'm still 20% sure the GOP will hijack the election by stealing Florida and Ohio.

any attempts to influence the election procedurally have already taken place, through restricting early voting and voter ID laws. the only chance GOP gets to steal anything is in the recount scenario, for which obama's legal team is very prepared for (unlike gore in 2000).

besides, do you realize that obama wins with just VA+NH? he does not need florida OR ohio. if the GOP tries any shenanigans in OH/FL they will still lose, and may face dire consequences if they get caught. plus obama's team has thousands of lawyers in OH ready to challenge any shenanigans.

 

[Deified Data]

Aww... I could never do that, even if my candidate were likely to lose. This is like the Super Bowl for political junkies. Once every four years is too long to not savor it. It's why I don't hesitate on taking time off and making a staycation out of it. So damn entertaining.

edit: Bishman, I got tails. :/

Perhaps I overestimate Obama's chances to carry the election to the point of not being all that concerned or interested in the results - or namely, the process of arriving at said results.

But I'm glad you guys are having fun.

You just gotta sit and watch and drink. It's a blast and a half.

We'll see. Maybe if I'm not compelled to do anything else.

 

[Wilbur]

I'm British, but using the BBC predictor - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259 - I got 293 for Obama.

 

[Extollere]

Provisional ballots count just as much as non-provisionals. It's making a stink over nothing, really.

Hmmm, I was under the impression that they didn't count provisional ballots unless necessary. I guess it doesn't matter that much then.

 

[Dash27]

Cyan if he is dead on then I'd have to give him credit. I'm skeptical but I dont ignore them. If they consistently show someone leading by a ton, it's pretty clear what's up. If they all trend one way it's probably signifying something. If it's close... too many variables imo.

I'm going to spend all night distracting myself from the results. I'll check back in every couple hours to see if anything noteworthy happened. I'm not going to be glued to the TV all night.

Wow I just realized i will not have TV or any internet other than my phone on election night. Sandy killed my FiOS and they are due to come Wednesday morning.

 

[Kusagari]

Romney will win Florida because the GOP has successful disenfranchised South Florida.

There is no way everyone who needs to vote will be able to stand in 6+ hour lines tomorrow.

 

[Futureman]

I wish the election was today. Today just seems so boring knowing tomorrow is gonna be INSANE.

 

[Lost Fragment]

I'm just ready for this to be over. All the constant talk about GOP/Dems cheating in one way or another makes me nervous.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjrthOPLAKM

 

[ced]

Tomorrow will be very excite.

It's been awhile, when will we know who won?

 

[NullPointer]

I'm going to spend all night distracting myself from the results. I'll check back in every couple hours to see if anything noteworthy happened. I'm not going to be glued to the TV all night.

Same here. I pray to the gods that Amazon's release day delivery of Halo 4 actually happens. Their record stands at 3 out of 5 so far for me.

Not having cable also means that when I do check, it'll most likely be GAF giving me the news.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Tomorrow will be very excite.

It's been awhile, when will know who won?

depends on how soon they call Ohio and Virginia

Spoiler

for Obama

None of the networks are going to call it before 11pm this year

Here is my prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmia

Pretty close to 538 except I flipped the coin for CO to go Romney's way.

 

[Deified Data]

Same here. I pray to the gods that Amazon's release day delivery of Halo 4 actually happens. Their record stands at 3 out of 5 so far for me.

Not having cable also means that when I do check, it'll most likely be GAF giving me the news.

Haha, I forgot that came out tomorrow. Tuesdays.

 

[HylianTom]

Tomorrow will be very excite.

It's been awhile, when will know who won?

We won't know for certain, but we can look at past elections to get a rough idea.

Here's what I posted early in the thread..

Edit: Many folks are probably wondering when we'll know "who won?" on Election Night. So, for reference, here are the Election Night Timelines for when polls closed and when states were called for the last few Presidential elections:
2000 > http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight/pe2000elecnighttime.php
2004 > http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php
2008 > http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php

Cheers!

I'm guessing that we'll know sometime between 2008 and 2004's times. The margins in each swing state will likely be thinner, leading to later times on these key states being called.. but to counter this is the fact that Obama has so many paths to 270 electoral votes.

Personally? I'm hopeful that we at least have a good idea by 11PM, EST.

 

[Zeth]

I decided to watch Game Change on HBOGO for this auspicious Election Eve

Is it any good? I might do the same.

 

[LosDaddie]

Same here. I pray to the gods that Amazon's release day delivery of Halo 4 actually happens. Their record stands at 3 out of 5 so far for me.

Not having cable also means that when I do check, it'll most likely be GAF giving me the news.

I'm picking up Halo 4 on the way home, do the family thing until about 8pm, then play Halo 4 until ~10:30pm, and finally check on the election results before going to bed.

I don't think a winner will be called until mid-Wedn

 

[BertramCooper]

Is it any good? I might do the same.

It's awesome.

 

[The Lamonster]

Is it any good? I might do the same.

Good? It's great.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Is it any good? I might do the same.

It's awesome.

Second this. It might be better than Too Big to Fail.

 

[Delusibeta]

FEARLESS FORECAST:

275 - 263 ROMNEY
I give him Florida, NC, VA, Colorado and OHIO. Listed in rough order of confidence.

Come at me.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blUh

Q: Has there been a poll which shows Romney in the lead in Ohio?
A: No.

Flick Ohio back to blue and it's 281-257 to Obama, which demonstrates how big of a pickle Romney is in. And bluntly, outside of outright treason I can't see Romney winning Ohio.

 

[speculawyer]

PoliGaf, let's decide who wins Florida. 538 is basically showing a 50 / 50 chance. Everyone flip a coin. Heads = Obama. Tails = Romney.

I got heads... Obama!

I flipped my coin and got heads but the head on my coin is Rick Scott. What does it mean?

 

[ced]

I flipped my coin but the head on my coin is Rick Scott. What does it mean?

It means your fucked.

 

[Angelus Errare]

I flipped my coin but the head on my coin is Rick Scott. What does it mean?

Romney.

 

[pigeon]

I thought I might do a fun little roundup of swing states. In order of poll closing times...

VIRGINIA

Polls close: 7 pm ET
Pundits say:

The political landscape in Virginia has shifted dramatically in recent years, and the disagreement among the polls is essentially a disagreement about which Virginia will dominate on Election Day: the reliably Republican “Old Virginia,” which is more religious, rural, working-class and white, or the politically competitive “New Virginia,” which is more secular, urban, diverse and white-collar.

In 2008, New Virginia made its debut at the presidential level, with Mr. Obama becoming the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964. He won by six percentage points.

But in the following two years, Old Virginia has roared back. Turnout in nonpresidential elections tends to be substantially more favorable to Republican candidates. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, won the governor’s race in 2009, and the party picked up three House seats in 2010. Republicans now represent 8 of Virginia’s 11 Congressional districts.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/in-virginia-its-tradition-versus-change/

Virginia’s diversity makes it a puzzle where both sides possess varying paths to victory through different demographic groups. One path involves a Romney rout in western Virginia, coupled with turnout from latent Republicans, and a few targeted inroads among voters in the D.C. exurbs and Virginia Beach. But each of these points are debatable—Romney might make bigger gains in northern Virginia, ’08 Republican turnout might not have been bad, black turnout might decrease, or Obama might hold up well among white working class voters who have traditionally voted for Democrats and aren’t sold on a wealthy Republican nominee. Virginia is poised to be one of the closest states on Election Night and also one of the most interesting, since 2012 will be the first close presidential contest since Virginia moved from Republican to a true battleground.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109666/three-piece-turnout-battle-in-virginia

Early voting: Virginia does not have early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. In 2008 absentee ballots made up 14% of the vote; absentee ballots received so far make up about 8.6% of the 2008 total votes cast.

Voter ID: Virginia strengthened its voter ID laws in 2012. It now requires you to provide a non-photo ID or cast a provisional ballot; if you cast a provisional ballot, you are responsible for submitting a non-photo ID at a later date to enable your vote to count.

Polls say: As of today, 538 gives Barack Obama a 73% chance of carrying the Old Dominion with a projected lead of 1.5 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Obama a much slimmer 0.3 point advantage.

Watch for: Anything to actually happen. 1.5 isn't a huge margin; a quick call for Obama is a good sign for him and is likely to mean he wins the whole thing. (Obama can lose Ohio and still sneak by with Virginia, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin.) If it goes to Romney early, that's an excellent sign for him -- it's a big part of his map, and indicates he's doing a lot better than polls project. More than likely, look for Virginia to be too close to call for quite a while. In 2004 Virginia took about two hours to call for an 8 point victory; in 2008, four hours for about the same margin. Maybe they just count slow over there.

edit: The newest 538 update raised Obama's lead to 2.2 and his chance to win to 81%. At this point it might get called a little bit quicker, but I think the above is still pretty valid.

 

[Kusagari]

Q: Has there been a poll which shows Romney in the lead in Ohio?
A: No.

Flick Ohio back to blue and it's 281-257 to Obama, which demonstrates how big of a pickle Romney is in. And bluntly, outside of outright treason I can't see Romney winning Ohio.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I'm still 20% sure the GOP will hijack the election by stealing Florida and Ohio.

You understand how difficult that would be right? Romney is losing Ohio in the polling by almost three points. It would have to come down to something like 10,000 votes for that to work.

 

[Rentahamster]

Tuesdays.

 

[RDreamer]

Q: Has there been a poll which shows Romney in the lead in Ohio?
A: No.

Flick Ohio back to blue and it's 281-257 to Obama, which demonstrates how big of a pickle Romney is in. And bluntly, outside of outright treason I can't see Romney winning Ohio.

There's be a poll that shows Romney in the lead. As in a single poll here or there. But the vast, vast majority show Obama up. Romney's never lead in aggregate for a single day there this entire election cycle.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I thought I might do a fun little roundup of swing states. In order of poll closing times...

VIRGINIA

Polls close: 7 pm ET
Pundits say:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/in-virginia-its-tradition-versus-change/



http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109666/three-piece-turnout-battle-in-virginia

Early voting: Virginia does not have early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. In 2008 absentee ballots made up 14% of the vote; absentee ballots received so far make up about 8.6% of the 2008 total votes cast.

Voter ID: Virginia strengthened its voter ID laws in 2012. It now requires you to provide a non-photo ID or cast a provisional ballot; if you cast a provisional ballot, you are responsible for submitting a non-photo ID at a later date to enable your vote to count.

Polls say: As of today, 538 gives Barack Obama a 73% chance of carrying the Old Dominion with a projected lead of 1.5 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Obama a much slimmer 0.3 point advantage.

Watch for: Anything to actually happen. 1.5 isn't a huge margin; a quick call for Obama is a good sign for him and is likely to mean he wins the whole thing. (Obama can lose Ohio and still sneak by with Virginia, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin.) If it goes to Romney early, that's an excellent sign for him -- it's a big part of his map, and indicates he's doing a lot better than polls project. More than likely, look for Virginia to be too close to call for quite a while. In 2004 Virginia took about two hours to call for an 8 point victory; in 2008, four hours for about the same margin. Maybe they just count slow over there.

Obama can sneak by without VA, OH or FL if he wins CO, NH, NV, WI and IA. IA and CO are the most questionable of these states.

 

[Delusibeta]

As I said, outright treason.

 

[Guevara]

You understand how difficult that would be right? Romney is losing Ohio in the polling by almost three points. It would have to come down to something like 10,000 votes for that to work.

Romney's internal polling says they are up 1 point in Ohio. I don't want to perpetuate a conspiracy theory, but right now the Romney campaign expects to win Ohio.

 

[Zeth]

Thanks for the tip folks. Watching Game Change now and liking it. Need a break from the news networks before tomorrow.

 

[heliosRAzi]

Is it any good? I might do the same.

I like it so far. I just watched a scene where the foreign policy advisors had to teach palin who were the major players in ww2 and their relationships.

 

[RDreamer]

Romney's internal polling says they are up 1 point in Ohio. I don't want to perpetuate a conspiracy theory, but right now the Romney campaign expects to win Ohio.

No they don't. Right now by releasing those internal polls they're doing what most losing campaigns do. Polling doesn't look good? Release your own trumped up polls to keep your base enthused.

 

[dem]

How is it possible that you guys have 6 hour lines to vote?

As a Canadian... that is mind boggling.

 

[RDreamer]

How is it possible that you guys have 6 hour lines to vote?

As a Canadian... that is mind boggling.

As a Wisconsinite that's mind boggling to me too.


But these swing states become victims of political games, and right now the political game from the Republicans is to make it tough to vote and discourage people from doing it. Higher turnout favors democrats. Lower turnout favors republicans. They inflate their ballots and close early voting places in order to create those long lines and discourage people.

 

[Servizio]

How is it possible that you guys have 6 hour lines to vote?

As a Canadian... that is mind boggling.

We ration our democracy much the way you ration your healthcare.

 

[VALIS]

FEARLESS FORECAST:

275 - 263 ROMNEY
I give him Florida, NC, VA, Colorado and OHIO. Listed in rough order of confidence.

Come at me.

Why would anyone come at you? Words on the internet are pretty cheap. Feel free to put some significant money down on that prediction if you want some attention.

 

[A Black Falcon]

No they don't. Right now by releasing those internal polls they're doing what most losing campaigns do. Polling doesn't look good? Release your own trumped up polls to keep your base enthused.

Yeah, even many Romney insiders seem to be admitting that they're unlikely to win. Releasing those polls happens in order to increase that small chance they have of pulling off the upset.

 

[Frank the Great]

the obama campaign should be handing out sample ballots to people waiting on long lines. that way they will know how to answer the ballot initiative questions and will be in and out of the booth quickly.

 

[Something Wicked]

How is it possible that you guys have 6 hour lines to vote?

As a Canadian... that is mind boggling.

Well, there more than 6 times as many people in the US than Canada (almost 10 times actually, and metro Miami has more than a million more people than metro Montreal... say that 5 times fast...).