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[Peru]

Analyst firms can be on point and they can be clueless. One example from a few years ago has stuck with me ever since: They were fatally off when predicting WW 3DS sales the holiday season Monster Hunter launched in Japan, predicting it would have little impact and that the system would continue doing as poorly as it did before Nintendo's rescue. Anyone on GAF would've correctly called a different result.

VR sets will obviously have a novelty appeal and sell some solid initial shipments, but they're very expensive and demand either a specific console or powerful hardware. Hardly an everyman's purchase.

 

[Orniletter]

Seriously, VR is pretty cool.

But we are looking at a (likely) 300+ bucks console add on that doesn't have particularly impressive games announced for it so far.

I really don't think VR will explode out of the gate like some are expecting.

 

[Graphics Horse]

The DS took around a year before it took off, launching in time for christmas won't do it any harm as long as it has a good supply of games.

 

[marmoka]

I don't think VR will be so successful as is expected to be.

 

[The_Lump]

was this already been posted?

DFC: Launching Nintendo NX In 2016 ‘A Mistake Under Any Scenario’

....

Yes, already covered. Its certainly one way of looking at it. But they'd also be mad to wait another year; WiiU sales and 3DS sales are bottoming out, it's one year closer to PS5/XB2 etc so what other choice do they have, really? The time is now.

Spoiler

Also, worth remembering Pachter is also an 'analyst'. So what they say isn't gospel by any means.

 

[Herb Alpert]

the social hurdles to VR are often underestimated. I don't think a lot of parents will like that their kid spend a lot of time a helmet on his head.
It won't bomb, but it won't be the tsunami some analyst are expecting.

 

[TI82]

The market hurdles of a Nintendo system are also very real.

 

[Litri]

the social hurdles to VR are often underestimated. I don't think a lot of parents will like that their kid spend a lot of time a helmet on his head.
It won't bomb, but it won't be the tsunami some analyst are expecting.

I will be like the 3D gimmick, in my opinion.

 

[Nightbird]

Hardcore gamers will make sure that VR won't fail, but it's delusional to think that VR in its current state is going to make a big splash.
A 700 Bucks entry fee (Console + VR Device) is too much for something that "might" be cool.
I think the general market will adapt to VR very slowly. The NX can launch this year and be successful with it. All they need to do is to make sure to communicate correctly, and to avoid another mess like the WiiU was.

 

[Hermii]

So if the NX supports Vulcan, that will be pretty good for forward compatibility right?

 

[Kurt]

I cant say it enough. Vr won't be a succes for gaming or movies. Only pron will. Maybe if hologlass will deliber a better product or holograms...

 

[RandomTiger]

I cant say it enough. Vr won't be a succes for gaming or movies. Only pron will. Maybe if hologlass will deliber a better product or holograms...

You can say it as often as you like, without a any reasoning to back it up an opinion isn't worth much.

 

[Graphics Horse]

So if the NX supports Vulcan, that will be pretty good for forward compatibility right?

It will help.
Do you mean forwards or future backwards? Forwards would be running nx2 software on nx, though that might not be out of the question on the console side in the case of a 100% console-handheld lineup.

It would be interesting if they end up depricating old platforms instead of pushing new ones, similar to how the new 3DS appeared without any software. Eliminating the need for building a huge launch line ups in future hw would be healthy once they get over the first one. That strateg proably needs a very successful & popular platform to work though, so first things first...

 

[Hermii]

It will help.
Do you mean forwards or future backwards? Forwards would be running nx2 software on nx, though that might not be out of the question on the console side in the case of a 100% console-handheld lineup.

I mean future backwards. Also I guess they could run NX console exclusive games on future NX handhelds.

 

[forknknife]

Is there any chance that the NX will be enabled for VR a la Samsung gear VR in which you could introduce the handheld into some similar head mount? Not like i think that should be their main strategy with it since i think VR competition is going to be merciless but I think it could be good that at least they keep that possibility open. I don't know, i just think VR is going to hurt the NX a lot unless they are happy selling only to Nintendo fanboys, which would be crazy.

 

[Majukun]

Is there any chance that the NX will be enabled for VR a la Samsung gear VR in which you could introduce the handheld into some similar head mount? Not like i think that should be their main strategy with it since i think VR competition is going to be merciless but I think it could be good that at least they keep that possibility open. I don't know, i just think VR is going to hurt the NX a lot unless they are happy selling only to Nintendo fanboys, which would be crazy.

impossible for the old nintendo
the "new" nintendo is basically unknown in terms of strategies,so it's a possibility,although maybe a remote one.

 

[Herb Alpert]

The market hurdles of a Nintendo system are also very real.

I don't deny that. I was just saying that VR won't be the second coming for video games, like a lot of people think.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Is there any chance that the NX will be enabled for VR a la Samsung gear VR in which you could introduce the handheld into some similar head mount? Not like i think that should be their main strategy with it since i think VR competition is going to be merciless but I think it could be good that at least they keep that possibility open. I don't know, i just think VR is going to hurt the NX a lot unless they are happy selling only to Nintendo fanboys, which would be crazy.

It's theoretically possible, I mean Metal Gear ac!d 2 came with a google cardboard-like 3D viewer on the PSP!
However most people are thinking the resolution will be on the low side for VR. (And they'll be saying that about launch vr hardware in a few years if they arent already)

 

[Peru]

I think VR is here to stay as a popular accessory. But not as "this is now how we play video games".

 

[Pif]

I think VR is here to stay as a popular accessory. But not as "this is now how we play video games".

Standalone, sleek and social accepted devices that Apple/google may produce are gonna make the medium skyrocket. Not games.

 

[Hermii]

It would be interesting if they end up depricating old platforms instead of pushing new ones, similar to how the new 3DS appeared without any software. Eliminating the need for building a huge launch line ups in future hw would be healthy once they get over the first one. That strateg proably needs a very successful & popular platform to work though, so first things first...

This is what I think they will aim for. Its what I think Iwata meant when he said they wanted to build an account based relationship with consumers instead of a device based one.

 

[Peru]

Utopian wish for NX: Virtual console with the games already released on the Wii U and 3DS available, and free if you own them there.

 

[NeonZ]

I think people are vastly overestimating Iwata's comments about combining their console and handheld teams, and about the shared iphone/ipad software.
You will still get console style games that will only be played on the console, and portable versions specifically tailored for the smaller screen. A lot of other games will be available for both, but not all.

A lot of people will be disappointed when the NX is anounced and they'll realize that they won't be able to play this new Zelda or Assasins Creed 15 on the go.

Right now, what everyone is hoping for, it's not going to happen. Unless the console is gimped, but you won't get a console with PS4 levels of power and a hanheld near that power too.

But hey, I would soooo love to be proven wrong.

I expect the NX console to be gimped exactly due to that handheld compatibility. If we're looking at two basically unrelated systems, why is there even a shared code name used for both? I don't think this happened with even Sony's portable systems for example. We'd be basically looking at just a Nintendo PSP/PSV, which doesn't really make much sense.

In practice, if there's no actual shared development possible, Nintendo will be just running into the exact same problems that they have right now - little support, long development times... making the whole thing pointless. I guess it's possible that they might just be betting on a new controller gimmick, and thus the hardware refresh, but we haven't heard report suggesting something that could be important in that sense at all.

It'd also make the shared branding even weirder, since it's unlikely that a big controller gimmick would be usable by both console and portable, unless it's something really stupid like no buttons/touchscreen only.

 

[beril]

I expect the NX console to be gimped exactly due to that handheld compatibility. If we're looking at two basically unrelated systems, why is there even a shared code name used for both? I don't think this happened with even Sony's portable systems for example. We'd be basically looking at just a Nintendo PSP/PSV, which doesn't really make much sense.

In practice, if there's no actual shared development possible, Nintendo will be just running into the exact same problems that they have right now - little support, long development times... making the whole thing pointless. I guess it's possible that they might just be betting on a new controller gimmick, and thus the hardware refresh, but we haven't heard report suggesting something that could be important in that sense at all.

It'd also make the shared branding even weirder, since it's unlikely that a big controller gimmick would be usable by both console and portable, unless it's something really stupid like no buttons/touchscreen only.

no one knows if the NX codename refers to both handheld console or if the finished products will use shared branding. It's all speculation based on some vague quotes and the fact that only one codename has been announced while they need two new systems soon. It's still possible that the NX is just the 3DS successor and then the Wii U2 will be announced next year, or vice versa.

 

[blu]

An insignificant fact: nintendo were not onboard khronos circa March 2015.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I expect the NX console to be gimped exactly due to that handheld compatibility. If we're looking at two basically unrelated systems, why is there even a shared code name used for both? I don't think this happened with even Sony's portable systems for example. We'd be basically looking at just a Nintendo PSP/PSV, which doesn't really make much sense.

In practice, if there's no actual shared development possible, Nintendo will be just running into the exact same problems that they have right now - little support, long development times... making the whole thing pointless. I guess it's possible that they might just be betting on a new controller gimmick, and thus the hardware refresh, but we haven't heard report suggesting something that could be important in that sense at all.

It'd also make the shared branding even weirder, since it's unlikely that a big controller gimmick would be usable by both console and portable, unless it's something really stupid like no buttons/touchscreen only.

Agreed, I think too much focus is being put on making hardware which competes with the paywall twins on a raw performance level. I haven't seen anything convincing of that for the last 10 years, & Miyamoto talking last year sounded like they are still going for the angle of being unique above anything else, so I do expect control gimmicks on top, preferably ones that translate well across form factor.

 

[Graphics Horse]

An insignificant fact: nintendo were not onboard khronos circa March 2015.

It might have been AMD who pushed them in that direction assuming they are their HW partner.
But of course it's not like you can r&d a HW platform based on the hope that an open api will be ready in time for launch.

 

[Hermii]

An insignificant fact: nintendo were not onboard khronos circa March 2015.

So this means what? NX probably won't have Vulcan support?

 

[blu]

It might have been AMD who pushed them in that direction assuming they are their HW partner.
But of course it's not like you can r&d a HW platform based on the hope that an open api will be ready in time for launch.

Yep.

So this means what? NX probably won't have Vulcan support?

It means what GHorse said.

 

[frankie_baby]

Does Vulcan work on any AMD hardware or just more recent ones?

 

[DrROBschiz]

Lol @ analysts thinking VR will impact NX launch

VR is pricey and has a specific appeal and market

Not to mention that there are already several competitors

But who knows

 

[blu]

Does Vulcan work on any AMD hardware or just more recent ones?

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=195594578&postcount=269

 

[frankie_baby]

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=195594578&postcount=269

So assuming it's AMD, at absolute worst we are getting gpu architecture one gen below the PS4

 

[burst]

I feel that nintendo has to make sure that their console is VR capable, in case it becomes huge.

 

[frankie_baby]

I feel that nintendo has to make sure that their console is VR capable, in case it becomes huge.

All they need is a decent hdmi and a decent USB port isn't it?

 

[The_Lump]

I feel that nintendo has to make sure that their console is VR capable, in case it becomes huge.

VR capable isn't really definable at the mo. Any console they put out will be 'capable' of doing it to some extent.

If we are talking capable of useable VR though, it would have to be a pretty powerful box indeed (if you want HD> resolution and a non-vomit inducing framerate I mean).

 

[DrROBschiz]

I feel that nintendo has to make sure that their console is VR capable, in case it becomes huge.

Shouldnt be too hard

 

[James Scott]

VR is odd because it requires a lot of power to work decently and you usually can't add support to a big AAA game on consoles...though, if the games are made for the portable spec it's likely possible to run those at a high enough frame rate and resolution on the console.
Bigger problem would be how expensive the headset is and the fact that so few Nintendo games would benefit from it unless it's just used as a 3D display

was this already been posted?

DFC: Launching Nintendo NX In 2016 ‘A Mistake Under Any Scenario’

Analyst firm DFC believes it would be a big mistake for Nintendo to release the NX platform in 2016. The reason? Well, they say that competing against the Virtual Reality solutions that are expected mid to late year such as PlayStation VR could prove to be a disaster. DFC says that they will prove to be extremely popular and would dwarf consumer interest in the Nintendo NX. They say that the NX won’t have an impact on the market until at least late 2017.

“DFC believes that Nintendo launching a new system in 2016 would be a mistake and under any scenario the Nintendo NX will not have an impact on the market until late 2017.”

“Of course, our perception is likely to evolve as more details around price points and launch dates become available, but 2016 is looking to be a record year for the game industry. In reviewing 2015 the PlayStation 4 met our expectations while the Xbox One and Wii U slightly underperformed. Going forward DFC believes that the potential launch of a new Nintendo system as well as new VR devices, especially the PlayStation VR will have a negative impact on the Xbox One and Wii U.

“Accordingly the market is open for the PlayStation 4 to have stronger sales and forecasts have been raised accordingly.”

source

I referenced it earlier but didn't post he article or give specifics. Seems a bit weird to wish to prolong Wii U's life span and the longer they wait the more consumers jump on ps4 and the more games NX could miss out on.

 

[Bert]

Yeah i wouldnt expect them the to throw everything and the kitchen sink at launch

They just need 2-3 solid games, some upgraded WiiU ports, a nice digital marketplace with consolidated VC offering (and credit for the games you own)

They have an opportunity to do this transition RIGHT

I think the same. 2-3 NX games, at least one new IP. They need to get Splatoon, MK and Smash ASAP IMO either upgraded ports or barebones NX versions they expand with DLC later. Mario Maker can basically come over as is, as can things like Wii Fit and Karaoke.

Then I really really really hope they got for broke with the VC. Get a ton of games on there, offer an all you can eat £5.99/mo subscription maybe with a free indie/eShop game each month as well as the normal pricing model. GC/N64 and above they can sell as eShop games.

Then they just need a couple of third party releases that don't make the console look awful.

Hardware I have no idea about. I like the idea of linking boxes together locally for more power and having a remote play type situation with the handheld. I could see the shared library going one way and the home console playing everything but the handheld only getting a subset.

One idea I did have was for the universal games to be set at a standard just above that which is required for N64 emulation. Then third party hardware could be certified "NX compatible". These devices (phones, set top boxes, etc.) and maybe an approved Nintendo controller, could then access your Nintendo subscription and play NES/SNES/N64 games as well as indie and handheld games at this spec and maybe also stream NX Home games if you own one. It's giving up a successful handheld hardware section, but to maybe expand your potential massively and you still make money from the subscription and approved controllers/hardware licensing.

 

[Kurt]

You can say it as often as you like, without a any reasoning to back it up an opinion isn't worth much.

Ok i have an oculus rift now for almost a year. (Dk2)

First when the screen moves to fast, it causes dissy effects. Second the headset isnt corfortable to use it for more than 30 min's. If you are using it often, you will notice that you dont prefer this over playing it on tv. Vr is more a view device for shorter sessions. Its hard to bring it over if you dont have the device tried for a while. Im sure that like it is now, it wont be a succes for gaming or movies. Maybe it will sell alot in the vmbeginning, in the end it will be only used for pron or small sessions if its worth it. It's my oppinion ofcourse

 

[TheMoon]

can we ban "random analyst opinion" articles from this thread?

 

[mrklaw]

can we ban "random analyst opinion" articles from this thread?

The thread is called 'what we know so far about NX with sources'. That analyst comment is the most concrete thing in this thread in ages.

 

[TheMoon]

The thread is called 'what we know so far about NX with sources'. That analyst comment is the most concrete thing in this thread in ages.

random opinions from suits aren't any more concrete than our reveal predictions, and other silliness in here.

 

[10k]

Don't do this. I'm gonna get too excited and we're both gonna be let down.

I will drag you and all your friends into the hype side with me if it's the last thing I do!

Tomb Raider 2013 was never even officially announced for Wii U despite the hardware being capable and it having been a potential launch window title in development coming off the best-selling Nintendo console and before the Wii U was a known commercial failure. It still didn't happen. Pretty silly to expect its sequel and all of these other games right now, especially when we don't know much about the actual hardware.

Looking at the titles listed, buy a PS4. The situation with third parties and Nintendo is not clear right now but Star Ocean 5 is a PS exclusive for example.

It doesn't matter. Square and Nintendo have an improved relationship compared to 2012. The NX seems to be on track with current engine support and API support. It'll run those games fine. It didn't sell too hot on XB1 and PC so you don't think square would want to maximize its return on investment by also making an NX version to launch next to the PS4 version?

Ditto star ocean. That game is niche beyond niche in Japan and Japan only has 2 million PS4's. You don't think square would want to increase its sales potential by porting it to NX as well?

This can be applied to any Japanese published B game really; Tales, Persona, Star Ocean, Deus Ex, etc.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

I don't think VR will be so successful as is expected to be.

I don't think it will bomb but it will take time to gain traction if it does.

Sony's install base this time around alone will make it impossible to be a disaster but there are lots of issues.

The physical one, the conveying it without experiencing it one, etc...

If Nintendo waits til next year for the NX whatever it is, it will be because they are'n't 100% ready, not because of Sony releasing something non-traditional.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

The thread is called 'what we know so far about NX with sources'. That analyst comment is the most concrete thing in this thread in ages.

Concrete that never dries.

 

[maxcriden]

can we ban "random analyst opinion" articles from this thread?

And from GAF in general, in terms of getting their own threads. If Forbes opinions are shamed, no reason for analysts' not to be.

 

[DrROBschiz]

An opinion piece is concrete?

Its discussion material i guess so i can agree there

 

[Griss]

There's no doubt that VR will suck up a huge amount of the hype this holiday. But it's going to be far more expensive, and what choice does Nintendo have?

2016: Nintendo shouldn't launch due to VR
2017: Nintendo shouldn't launch due to 2nd gen VR and new PS4/XB1 slim
2018: Nintendo shouldn't launch due to hype building for PS5 reveal / falling between generations
2019: Nintendo shouldn't launch due to PS5 / XB2 launch
2020: Nintendo shouldn't launch due to them being bankrupt due to sitting on the pot for 5 years. RIP Nintendo

...and so on and so on. There's never going to be a good time to launch when you're the underdog in a competitive market, you've just got to do it as best you can and get it over with. They can't ride 3DS and Wii U for another entire year.

 

[RandomTiger]

Ok i have an oculus rift now for almost a year. (Dk2)

First when the screen moves to fast, it causes dissy effects. Second the headset isnt corfortable to use it for more than 30 min's. If you are using it often, you will notice that you dont prefer this over playing it on tv. Vr is more a view device for shorter sessions. Its hard to bring it over if you dont have the device tried for a while. Im sure that like it is now, it wont be a succes for gaming or movies. Maybe it will sell alot in the vmbeginning, in the end it will be only used for pron or small sessions if its worth it. It's my oppinion ofcourse

Thanks for the constructive response. These things will improve with time though, I imagine some people will have more issues than others and some experiences will work well and some are poorly designed for VR and cause problems. The DK2 (which I haven't used) isn't even a consumer model and seemingly costs a lot less to produce than whatever the launch version is.

I agree shorter sessions though, at least to begin with, the longest I've done is 3 hours in Half Life 2 with DK1 and I'll admit felt a little strange afterwards. Since then I've tried the PSVR and Vive but only short sessions.

I think its a bit soon to write it off or declare it a success either way!

Have you tried 'Surge' from Oculus store? As a DK1 owner I cant run a lot of the good stuff but thats my favourite thing so far, Its short and a not a game, lol.