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What we know so far about the Nintendo NX with sources

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Thraktor

Member
This was my final point and since you haven't shown that they won't use 14nm, I will simply go here. WSJ had a source for Industry leading chips, it wasn't a PR person, it wasn't someone trying to sell you a NX, it was just someone who knew something. Why would they consider a 5 year old process and chips that are literally in competitor parts from 3 years ago "industry leading?" in frame of that context, it only makes sense that Nintendo was trying to fix an image problem with using older tech, so no 28nm and GCN 1.2 would certainly not make sense, I mean what do you expect from that? mullin's GPU? you think that would run low power enough to be in a handheld? They couldn't even win tablet formfactors with that chip, there is no way Nintendo okay'd it for a handheld with a SOC that will use ~2 watts.

You've clearly given your opinion on the matter, I think it is wrong but that is just my opinion. I will say though, that if they release a 28nm part, they won't be seen as industry leading at all, and with 14nm where it is by holiday this year, I see no reason they wouldn't go that route instead, especially when by 2018 (the earliest we could imagine a redesign) 28nm would actually cost more than 14nm by a fair amount as the industry pushes even further driven by insane mobile sales.

At least we both agree that they should use 14nm on the handheld.

Keep in mind the Wii U was referred to as "industry leading" (or equivalent) early on. It actually technically was, in the sense that (as far as I'm aware) it used the smallest eDRAM process of any mass produced product at the time, and borrowed cache technology from the POWER7. That doesn't necessarily mean it was made on the smallest node available, or had particularly high performance.

Regarding the handheld, if they go with a 28nm AMD chip then you'd probably be looking at maybe 4 (or more) A53's and two GCN 1.2 CU's at about 400MHz. That would be substantially more powerful than the Vita, which basically qualifies it as industry-leading (also keep in mind GCN 1.2 is used in the Fury line, so much the in same way that Wii U used POWER7 cache technology would cause many people to call the chip "industry-leading"). Alternatively, if they don't use AMD then you're maybe looking at a PowerVR GT7400 at maybe 500MHz, which would also comfortably outperform Vita, and is the same GPU architecture used in the iPhone 6S (so again, can be claimed as industry leading). Either of these chips would be both pretty cheap and outperform the 3DS by a massive margin (and the AMD one gives advantages in terms of cross-development), so they'd easily fit Nintendo's criteria. Hence I feel it's natural, given Nintendo's history with handhelds, and the likely lack of a successor to the Vita, to assume that Nintendo would go that route.

They have actually announced 28nm eDRAM in 2010. If I remember correctly it was in eetimes article.

I have the feeling that was dropped. I'm pretty sure during their restructuring they dropped 28nm altogether in favour of outsourcing it to TSMC, and 28nm eDRAM probably fell by the wayside at that point.

Man, that would be such a sweet chip in the NX hh.

Hmm, I'm actually surprised they're shipping mid-range chips on 14nm so soon (although I'd say shipping products with these are a few months away). Bodes a little bit better for Nintendo going the 14nm route.

Hmm. I just looked at 810's floor plan and it does use quite a bit of area for codecs on top of the DSP. It's safe to say codecs go away too : )

That 810 floorplan going around isn't actually to scale (it says it on the original Qualcomm slide, but a lot of the images you'll see on sites have cropped that out).

Back in 2011 the OG 3DS cost about $33 to get the two screens needed to make 3D. I'm guessing it would be half the price to just get one screen so it costs Nintendo approx. $16.50 to implement 3D which after markup and R&D probably adds about $20 to the final retail price.

http://cdn.ihs.com/Technology/Share...ges/Press Releases/2011-03-28_Nintendo_DS.png

2011-03-28_Nintendo_DS.png

Keep in mind that Nintendo are pretty much the only customer of Sharp's autostereoscopic screens, so I wouldn't place much weight on IHS's ability to estimate the costs of them. (They're probably pretty accurate on the price of the 2D screens, though, as they're as commoditised as you'll get).

Also, you'd want to at least double a component price to get its effect on final pricing, if not more.
 

The_Lump

Banned
Thanks but says i need a subscription. but it's ok I was thinking more of some tweets that implied how solid thier info was regarding parts. I can't remember the details now.

Oh sorry, didn't realize wsj was subscription. The same story is available from multiple sources though (I just googled IHS + Nintendo)

Here's the quote from IHS Senior Tech Principal:
“We expect a small recovery in shipments of flat-panel displays for game devices because of Nintendo’s new game hardware expected to be released in 2016.”

“Their expectation is that displays sized between 3.1 – 5 inches wide will increase to 16.5 million units this year, growth from 14.1 million units last year. However, data has shown that OLED displays would remain unused by the market.”

So it's as solid as it gets, if you trust IHS to do their job ;)
 

The_Lump

Banned
What else would they be ordering screens for

Unless we still think the hybrid idea is feasible

Well its still only a quote from an Analyst. Albeit an analyst who is paid to know what they are talking about, but it's still not technically 'confirmation' of anything.

It can support a solid educated guess though...
 

blu

Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
Hmm, I'm actually surprised they're shipping mid-range chips on 14nm so soon (although I'd say shipping products with these are a few months away). Bodes a little bit better for Nintendo going the 14nm route.
Chip, singular ; ) That's literally the first non-premium 14nm SoC we're getting. But I do agree with you - if QCOM can figure out the economics, so could others.
 

Thraktor

Member
Chip, singular ; ) That's literally the first non-premium 14nm SoC we're getting. But I do agree with you - if QCOM can figure out the economics, so could others.

Well, chips in the sense that they presumably expect to sell more than a single 625.

Given the core config and process node, I would assume it's designed for ultra-thin phones from the likes of Oppo, as it should be pretty damn power efficient. So probably more expensive than the rest of their 600 line, but still cheaper than the 800s.
 

Rodin

Member
Back in 2011 the OG 3DS cost about $33 to get the two screens needed to make 3D. I'm guessing it would be half the price to just get one screen so it costs Nintendo approx. $16.50 to implement 3D which after markup and R&D probably adds about $20 to the final retail price.

http://cdn.ihs.com/Technology/Share...ges/Press Releases/2011-03-28_Nintendo_DS.png

2011-03-28_Nintendo_DS.png

The secondary 3DS screen is a 3", 320x240 part, no way it costs the same as a 3D, 3.5", 800x240 autostereoscopic screen. Try 20-25$ to implement 3D. That piece of crap can't be more than 10$.

Anyway very interesting find, because we can compare it to the BOM for the iPhone 6S Plus and Galaxy S6 Edge (first two i could find):

2015-09-3007-32-29.jpg


528877


Now it's obvious that Apple and Samsung get different prices from Nintendo, but the ballpark should be same for stuff like SoC, NAND, RAM and battery so i think we can make a rough estimate of what they can put in a 199$ NX handheld (which should cost them 120$ at most i think, to break even or make a small profit) starting from those.
 

Eradicate

Member
Now it's obvious that Apple and Samsung get different prices from Nintendo, but the ballpark should be same for stuff like SoC, NAND, RAM and battery so i think we can make a rough estimate of what they can put in a 199$ NX handheld (which should cost them 120$ at most i think, to break even or make a small profit) starting from those.

I'll take a very uneducated guess at it, just to provide a starting point for others. I think it'll be an interesting line of conversation. Note all the question marks...I know nothing:

Display/Touch Screen – Sharp Free-Form Display - ~5.0” – Touch-enabled - ~$30.00 (guess on new tech)
Mechanical/Electromechanical – PCBs, connectors, switches, wiring, plastics, metal, etc. - ~$20.00
Apps Processor – ARM something??? – no more than ~$20.00, closer to $20 being higher-end I imagine
Memory - ??? – guessing ~$15.00
User Interface – gyroscope, accelerometer, audio codec, NFC - ~$10.00
WLAN - ~$5.00
Camera – two, one front and one back, both 5MP - ~$6.00
Power Management – power mgmt. IC, charger IC, etc. - ~$6.00
Battery - ??? - ~$4.00
Box Contents – charger, box, packaging, literature, cables, etc. - ~$4.00
Other – timing components (???) - ~$1.00

This comes out within that $120 ballpark you mentioned. I'd really like to see others refine it and use real technology and expand on this though; I'm ignorant beyond belief here.
 
I'll take a very uneducated guess at it, just to provide a starting point for others. I think it'll be an interesting line of conversation. Note all the question marks...I know nothing:

Display/Touch Screen – Sharp Free-Form Display - ~5.0” – Touch-enabled - ~$30.00 (guess on new tech)
Mechanical/Electromechanical – PCBs, connectors, switches, wiring, plastics, metal, etc. - ~$20.00
Apps Processor – ARM something??? – no more than ~$20.00, closer to $20 being higher-end I imagine
Memory - ??? – guessing ~$15.00
User Interface – gyroscope, accelerometer, audio codec, NFC - ~$10.00
WLAN - ~$5.00
Camera – two, one front and one back, both 5MP - ~$6.00
Power Management – power mgmt. IC, charger IC, etc. - ~$6.00
Battery - ??? - ~$4.00
Box Contents – charger, box, packaging, literature, cables, etc. - ~$4.00
Other – timing components (???) - ~$1.00

This comes out within that $120 ballpark you mentioned. I'd really like to see others refine it and use real technology and expand on this though; I'm ignorant beyond belief here.

So at this hardware cost where does the profit margin fall? Is it the full 80 or is it closer to 50-60?
 
Not really. Could be the NX controller has a screen. Could be a handheld and a screen controller. Who knows?

Depends on whether they plan on leaving 3DS as their leading handheld

I dont think thats the case personally. They have already stated that they plan on getting away form both 3DS and WiiU with the NX

That suggests that they are going Handheld and Console replacement going forward

I dont think I could stomach another year of 3DS
 

Griss

Member
I'd love to see them drop the camera from the handheld (or the controller, if that has a screen) for multiple reasons.

1. We've proven that it just isn't used in games that anyone's interested in. It's no loss - people can build their own Miis.
2. It would save them a bit of money that could go elsewhere.
3. Everyone has a much better camera sensor in their phone than whatever cheap shit Nintendo will be able to put in the NX. No one will miss the functionality. No one's gonna be using the NX to make video calls or take pictures.
4. Most importantly - it allows them to shave down the bezel and make a more attractive product.

It's just not necessary anymore.
 
I'd love to see them drop the camera from the handheld (or the controller, if that has a screen) for multiple reasons.

1. We've proven that it just isn't used in games that anyone's interested in. It's no loss - people can build their own Miis.
2. It would save them a bit of money that could go elsewhere.
3. Everyone has a much better camera sensor in their phone than whatever cheap shit Nintendo will be able to put in the NX. No one will miss the functionality. No one's gonna be using the NX to make video calls.
4. Most importantly - it allows them to shave down the bezel and make a more attractive product.

It's just not necessary anymore.

I really hope efficiency and practicality are principles in the NX design

They have an opportunity here
 

beril

Member
I'd love to see them drop the camera from the handheld (or the controller, if that has a screen) for multiple reasons.

1. We've proven that it just isn't used in games that anyone's interested in. It's no loss - people can build their own Miis.
2. It would save them a bit of money that could go elsewhere.
3. Everyone has a much better camera sensor in their phone than whatever cheap shit Nintendo will be able to put in the NX. No one will miss the functionality. No one's gonna be using the NX to make video calls or take pictures.
4. Most importantly - it allows them to shave down the bezel and make a more attractive product.

It's just not necessary anymore.

If they do keep the 3D screen they'll need it for eyetracking though
 

Thraktor

Member
I'll take a very uneducated guess at it, just to provide a starting point for others. I think it'll be an interesting line of conversation. Note all the question marks...I know nothing:

Display/Touch Screen – Sharp Free-Form Display - ~5.0” – Touch-enabled - ~$30.00 (guess on new tech)
Mechanical/Electromechanical – PCBs, connectors, switches, wiring, plastics, metal, etc. - ~$20.00
Apps Processor – ARM something??? – no more than ~$20.00, closer to $20 being higher-end I imagine
Memory - ??? – guessing ~$15.00
User Interface – gyroscope, accelerometer, audio codec, NFC - ~$10.00
WLAN - ~$5.00
Camera – two, one front and one back, both 5MP - ~$6.00
Power Management – power mgmt. IC, charger IC, etc. - ~$6.00
Battery - ??? - ~$4.00
Box Contents – charger, box, packaging, literature, cables, etc. - ~$4.00
Other – timing components (???) - ~$1.00

This comes out within that $120 ballpark you mentioned. I'd really like to see others refine it and use real technology and expand on this though; I'm ignorant beyond belief here.

It seems sort of plausible, although it's very hard to tell, and compound errors could result in being off by a fair bit at the end. Two things I'd note:

- I would expect a free-form display to be over $30. There's no way they're cheap to manufacture, and my own guess would be that it would be significantly more expensive than even a 3D screen.

- SoC costs are extremely hard to estimate. When IHS were doing that breakdown on the S6 Edge, the Exynos 7420 SoC that it used was literally the only chip made on the 14LPE process, and Samsung were making it themselves, so there's basically no way of IHS having reliable info on the cost (i.e. the $29.50 quoted is little more than a lightly educated guess). That said, from the limited information we do have, I would posit that the low end for an SoC would be around $10 (a basic 28nm chip) and the high end would be about $30 (14nm AMD Polaris). RAM is also something you have to factor into account relating to the SoC, as a higher-end chip will require more, faster RAM, which pushes up the BoM.

So at this hardware cost where does the profit margin fall? Is it the full 80 or is it closer to 50-60?

Nintendo's profit margin would be around zero if the BoM is $120 and they're selling it for $200. The rest goes into manufacturing, logistics, taxes and retailer margins.
 
I had a dream last night that The Wonderful 102 was announced for NX, but was only playable on mobile devices with no physical buttons. It didn't make sense, but I was pissed.
 

Eradicate

Member
So at this hardware cost where does the profit margin fall? Is it the full 80 or is it closer to 50-60?

That's a good question. I'll take a guess at around $65. But, what do I know? While I think they are going to make a profit on the handheld and not entirely sell for a loss, I do think they are willing to eat it a little bit somehow. I've thought about them bundling a high-profile game with the handheld at $200, for instance.

I'd love to see them drop the camera from the handheld (or the controller, if that has a screen) for multiple reasons.

1. We've proven that it just isn't used in games that anyone's interested in. It's no loss - people can build their own Miis.
2. It would save them a bit of money that could go elsewhere.
3. Everyone has a much better camera sensor in their phone than whatever cheap shit Nintendo will be able to put in the NX. No one will miss the functionality. No one's gonna be using the NX to make video calls or take pictures.
4. Most importantly - it allows them to shave down the bezel and make a more attractive product.

It's just not necessary anymore.

I also thought about eliminating the camera costs in my guess. I only left two cameras there because I was thinking of them doing AR-related things, and as far as I know, they need at least one for that. However, they may be doing that sort of thing entirely through mobile, such as with Pokémon Go. All your points are very valid and I agree with them...I just wonder about AR.

Also, beril, good point about the eyetracking. I really wonder if the handheld will be 3D normally or if they'll do another platform for it, like a super AR and 3D-enabled version at a higher cost?
 

Ogodei

Member
I'd love to see them drop the camera from the handheld (or the controller, if that has a screen) for multiple reasons.

1. We've proven that it just isn't used in games that anyone's interested in. It's no loss - people can build their own Miis.
2. It would save them a bit of money that could go elsewhere.
3. Everyone has a much better camera sensor in their phone than whatever cheap shit Nintendo will be able to put in the NX. No one will miss the functionality. No one's gonna be using the NX to make video calls or take pictures.
4. Most importantly - it allows them to shave down the bezel and make a more attractive product.

It's just not necessary anymore.

AR will be the reason why there'll be a camera in the handheld unit. That seems to be something coming out of the rumors that they're looking at.
Ninja'd by Eradicate.
 

Eradicate

Member
I had a dream last night that The Wonderful 102 was announced for NX, but was only playable on mobile devices with no physical buttons. It didn't make sense, but I was pissed.

Prevolition's premonition!

It seems sort of plausible, although it's very hard to tell, and compound errors could result in being off by a fair bit at the end. Two things I'd note:

- I would expect a free-form display to be over $30. There's no way they're cheap to manufacture, and my own guess would be that it would be significantly more expensive than even a 3D screen.

- SoC costs are extremely hard to estimate. When IHS were doing that breakdown on the S6 Edge, the Exynos 7420 SoC that it used was literally the only chip made on the 14LPE process, and Samsung were making it themselves, so there's basically no way of IHS having reliable info on the cost (i.e. the $29.50 quoted is little more than a lightly educated guess). That said, from the limited information we do have, I would posit that the low end for an SoC would be around $10 (a basic 28nm chip) and the high end would be about $30 (14nm AMD Polaris). RAM is also something you have to factor into account relating to the SoC, as a higher-end chip will require more, faster RAM, which pushes up the BoM.



Nintendo's profit margin would be around zero if the BoM is $120 and they're selling it for $200. The rest goes into manufacturing, logistics, taxes and retailer margins.

You mention lightly educated guess, which is even more than I'm going on! You guys impress me.

I was imagining that the screen had to be a fair amount if they were going free-form for sure. Maybe it'd be safer to place it around $40.00?

Great points about the SoC and RAM. Any guesses on what you could get for ~$35.00, RAM included in the cost?

Also, yeah, very true about the ultimate profit margins available after you take everything like that into account. Maybe they will be eating it more than I anticipated. If they do end up going to $250 (hope not!), they surely will have a full-fledged game bundled with it, in my mind, or maybe a $25-$50 Nintendo Account credit or something instead.

AR will be the reason why there'll be a camera in the handheld unit. That seems to be something coming out of the rumors that they're looking at.
Ninja'd by Eradicate.

Maybe they just need one camera behind the handheld for this?

Ninjas! Please, don't mention the ni
 

maxcriden

Member
I had a dream last night that The Wonderful 102 was announced for NX, but was only playable on mobile devices with no physical buttons. It didn't make sense, but I was pissed.

Well, in their defense they have to find some way to get the series to have an audience. Not that the NX won't have an audience, but it's hard to believe it would suddenly be a hit on game consoles if it wasn't before. Better to go with mobile. Perhaps it could be a satirical mix of popular mobile games, like Wonder Red's version of Angry Birds, Wonder Blue's version of a SimCity-type game, Wonder Green's French version of Candy Crush w/ subtitles....
 

Hermii

Member
Well, in their defense they have to find some way to get the series to have an audience. Not that the NX won't have an audience, but it's hard to believe it would suddenly be a hit on game consoles if it wasn't before. Better to go with mobile. Perhaps it could be a satirical mix of popular mobile games, like Wonder Red's version of Angry Birds, Wonder Blue's version of a SimCity-type game, Wonder Green's French version of Candy Crush w/ subtitles....
I would rather have nothing and I can't imagine Kamiya would be keen to direct those.
Let's ask him on Twitter:p
 
I'll take a very uneducated guess at it, just to provide a starting point for others. I think it'll be an interesting line of conversation. Note all the question marks...I know nothing:

Display/Touch Screen – Sharp Free-Form Display - ~5.0” – Touch-enabled - ~$30.00 (guess on new tech)
Mechanical/Electromechanical – PCBs, connectors, switches, wiring, plastics, metal, etc. - ~$20.00
Apps Processor – ARM something??? – no more than ~$20.00, closer to $20 being higher-end I imagine
Memory - ??? – guessing ~$15.00
User Interface – gyroscope, accelerometer, audio codec, NFC - ~$10.00
WLAN - ~$5.00
Camera – two, one front and one back, both 5MP - ~$6.00
Power Management – power mgmt. IC, charger IC, etc. - ~$6.00
Battery - ??? - ~$4.00
Box Contents – charger, box, packaging, literature, cables, etc. - ~$4.00
Other – timing components (???) - ~$1.00

This comes out within that $120 ballpark you mentioned. I'd really like to see others refine it and use real technology and expand on this though; I'm ignorant beyond belief here.
I don't think the NFC thing costs anywhere like 10 bucks, reports at the Wii U launch suggested about 5 back then but that it would drop fast
 

The_Lump

Banned
You guys are all forgetting how much they'll save by not including a charging cable in the box. That could probably add like 50 GigaFloppages worth of silicon to their budget right there ;)
 
I'm not convinced by AR being a big draw, at least the 3DS and VitA didn't do much for me with it.
I think there is value in doing headtracking for subtle perspective adjustments, using the same tech as the new 3ds already contains. I wouldn't call that AR but it could be used in conjunction with AR, if you had a wide fov camera on the back and could display a portion of the frame based on user's line of sight. It could feel like a genuine 'window' then.
 
Going back to whether a simultaneous launch is a good idea:
Nintendo really only needs to sell one NX device so if consumers buy at least one then that's fine.
I think that Smash like release (3DS in summer, Wii U in Winter) could work better. Zelda can release on time an the NX console and the NX handheld could get things like MH stories and Yokai watch 3 (which were oddly delayed till summer).
Everything that the NX handheld gets from then until the NX console launch could be part of the launch line up for the console as well.
I think this is the way to do it...but it also seems possible that the NX is a little behind schedule with some major devs not having dev kits or at least insider information isn't up to snuff.
A lot of rumors and quotes come from Japan and Japan would be all over the handheld despite mostly ignoring Wii U so maybe they have the handheld ready for 2016 and the console in March?
This is the most likely despite not being the most ideal.
It'll miss out on Zelda or Zelda will be delayed several months. It'll also miss out on FFXV, a game I don't think will be very good but will be important for getting Japanese devs and consumers on board.
Though it might launch with Dragon Quest.
I believe SE said they wanted XI but it'll likely not be there first. This might of referred to their targeted 2016 release date which is DQ's anniversary which they said would last until March of next year.
It'll also miss a Christmas which is historically Nintendo's biggest period for sales.
If this happens it was likely a late decision since they reaffirmed Zelda for 2016 just awhile ago.
But, better this delay than Wii U's rushed launch which likely lead to some issues with the hardware and software, I guess. At least tell devs not to port software targeting a 2016 multiplatform release
 
Kids love the shitty camera on the 3DS even. No chance in hell they drop the camera on the handheld. On the console controller, I do think they should drop it and create a standalone camera peripheral.
 

The_Lump

Banned
I'm not convinced by AR being a big draw, at least the 3DS and VitA didn't do much for me with it.
I think there is value in doing headtracking for subtle perspective adjustments, using the same tech as the new 3ds already contains. I wouldn't call that AR but it could be used in conjunction with AR, if you had a wide fov camera on the back and could display a portion of the frame based on user's line of sight.

I agree it is not a big draw at the moment, based on it's utilization up to now.
However if its marketing correctly it could become attractive.

Hopefully they'll switch to micro USB charging and surely no one will give a shot there's no charger finally

Yes please!
 
I keep seeing this thread appearing on page 1,but we still don't know shit, right?
We know what's on the OP if you want to read it.
Two systems where it's easy to port assets across the two.
we don't know specs but we know about as much as any system when we hear about the codename
 
If Nintendo are emphasizing their digital store, ethernet may finally be included to make downloads quicker. I believe Nintendo mean for NX to be a much snappier experience than Wii U overall. Notice the difference between the dashed line wireless connection w/ the controller vs the solid line from the communication unit to the server.


Ethernet is also a possible way of connecting the console and SCD according to the other patent.
 

10k

Banned
Going back to my theory that Nintendo will talk about and show the NX between April and May.

If this really is a new gameplay experience, much like the Wii, and they're concerned about messaging, they'll want to clear all that up and give people something to expect at e3. E3 2006 we knew about the Wii, it's Wii remote and what it looked like and it was a great conference because it was all about year one games along with Mario kart and smash.

I don't think you can explain the NX to the masses in a 40 minute conference. Just look at the cluster fuck of the Wii U reveal (is it a tablet for the Wii?). That can't happen again. I'm banking on them holding an event a week or two after the end year briefing that usually happens in early May or late April. It will be announced at the briefing.
 

Eradicate

Member
I would rather have nothing and I can't imagine Kamiya would be keen to direct those.
Let's ask him on Twitter:p

Do it!

You guys are all forgetting how much they'll save by not including a charging cable in the box. That could probably add like 50 GigaFloppages worth of silicon to their budget right there ;)

Look at all that extra GigaFloppage!

Going back to whether a simultaneous launch is a good idea:
Nintendo really only needs to sell one NX device so if consumers buy at least one then that's fine.
I think that Smash like release (3DS in summer, Wii U in Winter) could work better. Zelda can release on time an the NX console and the NX handheld could get things like MH stories and Yokai watch 3 (which were oddly delayed till summer).
Everything that the NX handheld gets from then until the NX console launch could be part of the launch line up for the console as well.
I think this is the way to do it...but it also seems possible that the NX is a little behind schedule with some major devs not having dev kits or at least insider information isn't up to snuff.
A lot of rumors and quotes come from Japan and Japan would be all over the handheld despite mostly ignoring Wii U so maybe they have the handheld ready for 2016 and the console in March?
This is the most likely despite not being the most ideal.
It'll miss out on Zelda or Zelda will be delayed several months. It'll also miss out on FFXV, a game I don't think will be very good but will be important for getting Japanese devs and consumers on board.
Though it might launch with Dragon Quest.
I believe SE said they wanted XI but it'll likely not be there first. This might of referred to their targeted 2016 release date which is DQ's anniversary which they said would last until March of next year.
It'll also miss a Christmas which is historically Nintendo's biggest period for sales.
If this happens it was likely a late decision since they reaffirmed Zelda for 2016 just awhile ago.
But, better this delay than Wii U's rushed launch which likely lead to some issues with the hardware and software, I guess. At least tell devs not to port software targeting a 2016 multiplatform release

Really good points, but then it brings up the ultimate question...if the library is shared across NX devices, would this entirely matter right off the bat? Assuming they can get the handheld powerful enough to get FFXV and Zelda, I'd assume they'd go ahead and release it for the "platform" regardless. I could see a battle with the consumers in their eyes that "the handheld version is different," but if "platform is king," then maybe the game launch timing may not matter as much in the end?

I'm really torn on which will release first, or if both will. I tried looking into the earlier question about the term "game console." I happened to be looking through Sharp's investor materials and they mentioned "game console" in talking about displays. As far as I know, this has to be in reference to a handheld device, so I'm wondering if "game console" in corporate-speak simply means either. Kimishima also mentioned, essentially, supporting/developing for the 3DS, Wii U, and NX. That doesn't help! Which is it, handheld or console? I think it just lends more towards them blurring the lines more, which, again, may be their biggest challenge. (And no, I don't think it's a hybrid!)
 
Going back to my theory that Nintendo will talk about and show the NX between April and May.

If this really is a new gameplay experience, much like the Wii, and they're concerned about messaging, they'll want to clear all that up and give people something to expect at e3. E3 2006 we knew about the Wii, it's Wii remote and what it looked like and it was a great conference because it was all about year one games along with Mario kart and smash.

I don't think you can explain the NX to the masses in a 40 minute conference. Just look at the cluster fuck of the Wii U reveal (is it a tablet for the Wii?). That can't happen again. I'm banking on them holding an event a week or two after the end year briefing that usually happens in early May or late April. It will be announced at the briefing.

Having a new name and image will help alot i imagine
 
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