Why Did The PS3 Fail?
- Thread starter typhonsentra
- Start date
Games this gen that'll have sold 10m+ units by the end of 2008...
New Super Mario Bros. (already has)
Nintendogs (already has)
Brain-Age (almost there)
Brain-Age 2 (maybe)
Animal Crossing WW (almost there)
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (almost there)
Mario Kart DS (maybe)
Halo 3 (maybe)
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 (maybe)
Wii Sports (almost there)
Wii Play (maybe)
Wii Fit (maybe)
Super Mario Galaxy (maybe)
...and games that won't...
everything Wollan listed
New Super Mario Bros. (already has)
Nintendogs (already has)
Brain-Age (almost there)
Brain-Age 2 (maybe)
Animal Crossing WW (almost there)
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (almost there)
Mario Kart DS (maybe)
Halo 3 (maybe)
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 (maybe)
Wii Sports (almost there)
Wii Play (maybe)
Wii Fit (maybe)
Super Mario Galaxy (maybe)
...and games that won't...
everything Wollan listed
First of all, I would really like to think that all the big 3 have more games for the 2008 than the ones that they have announced so far. Otherwise, 2008 would suck bollocks game wise. And yes, I expect great things from this TGS
Second: Well, there are already lot of potential sequels from all the Microsoft and Nintendo franchises which we all know that will happen this generation (the only question is when). For example: Pikmin 3, Banjo 3 , Gears of war 2, Animal Crossing: the apocalypse, etc.
There are games that have already been announced for the year 2008 that will sell massively. We all know that wiifit is going to end with life on Earth as we know it.
jarrod said:Games this gen that'll have sold 10m+ units by the end of 2008...
New Super Mario Bros. (already has)
Nintendogs (already has)
Brain-Age (almost there)
Brain-Age 2 (maybe)
Animal Crossing WW (almost there)
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (almost there)
Mario Kart DS (maybe)
Halo 3 (maybe)
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 (maybe)
Wii Sports (almost there)
Wii Play (maybe)
Wii Fit (maybe)
Super Mario Galaxy (maybe)
...and games that won't...
everything Wollan listed
Wow, you should be an analyst! With all those maybes, you can't possibly be wrong!
*added PS3 sales numbers, adjusted other numbers slightly*
Since Dragona Akehi have bookmarked and is keeping track, just to have my 2008 theories on the clear:
8 million PS3's sold through at end of 07, 16-18million end of 08.
PS3 will drop to $399 next April or right before the first of either KZ2, LBP, GTA4 or MGS4 drops, there will be only a single PS3 sku in EU/US.
GT5 will sell over 10 million copies, by summer 09 (over 7 million by end of 08), assuming it releases July-August.
Killzone 2 will sell over 4 million copies by end of 08.
MGS4 will sell over 4.5 million copies by end of 08.
LBP will sell at least 2 million copies but it has the absolute biggest potential to explode, total wild card.
Final Fantasy XIII will have sold 6 million copies within six months of hitting it's last big region.
Alan Wake will (unless Epic by a miracle finds the time to finish Gears 2 for 08) be the best selling exclusive X360 title of 08 and it will be pretty much shoulder to shoulder with Halo Wars and do 3.5 million (GTA4 will be the platforms overall best seller).
PS3 will claim 35% of GTA4 sales next year.
Home will have over 7 million separate accounts signed in by end of next year (that's covering from a single sign in to addict as well as multiple accounts on same console).
Since Dragona Akehi have bookmarked and is keeping track, just to have my 2008 theories on the clear:
8 million PS3's sold through at end of 07, 16-18million end of 08.
PS3 will drop to $399 next April or right before the first of either KZ2, LBP, GTA4 or MGS4 drops, there will be only a single PS3 sku in EU/US.
GT5 will sell over 10 million copies, by summer 09 (over 7 million by end of 08), assuming it releases July-August.
Killzone 2 will sell over 4 million copies by end of 08.
MGS4 will sell over 4.5 million copies by end of 08.
LBP will sell at least 2 million copies but it has the absolute biggest potential to explode, total wild card.
Final Fantasy XIII will have sold 6 million copies within six months of hitting it's last big region.
Alan Wake will (unless Epic by a miracle finds the time to finish Gears 2 for 08) be the best selling exclusive X360 title of 08 and it will be pretty much shoulder to shoulder with Halo Wars and do 3.5 million (GTA4 will be the platforms overall best seller).
PS3 will claim 35% of GTA4 sales next year.
Home will have over 7 million separate accounts signed in by end of next year (that's covering from a single sign in to addict as well as multiple accounts on same console).
jarrod said:Games this gen that'll have sold 10m+ units by the end of 2008...
New Super Mario Bros. (already has)
Nintendogs (already has)
Brain-Age (almost there)
Brain-Age 2 (maybe)
Animal Crossing WW (almost there)
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (almost there)
Mario Kart DS (maybe)
Halo 3 (maybe)
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 (maybe)
Wii Sports (almost there)
Wii Play (maybe)
Wii Fit (maybe)
Super Mario Galaxy (maybe)
...and games that won't...
everything Wollan listed
Wii Sports is absolutely no where near 10 million sold.
Tyrone Slothrop
Banned
the ps3 will do fine
not stellar but good enough
not stellar but good enough
Dragona Akehi
Retired
2DMention said:
One of these things is not like the other...
Well... I can say GT5 is a definite "no". :lolKTallguy said:
All those maybes probably will move over 10m units lifetime, but the 2008 cutoff is an uncertainty. Out of all the PS3 games known so far, I'd say GT5 has the best shot of eventually reaching that benchmark, but it'll take something of a miracle for it to happen.
It's a bit of an unfair comparison as it's a forced bundle in all western markets, but it's over 8m worldwide right now. It'll be over 10m by November, and could move over 20m units when all's said and done.909er said:
Not to mention there are surely games like Wii Sports 2, Wii Music, Wii Fit, Brain Age Wii, and Mario Kart which I think could outsell GT5 easily. Throw in some new IP and 3rd party exclusives and the Wii has a far superior line up compared to PS3 as far as sales potential is concerned.
360 is another story but there are plenty of promising games comprable to Sony's offerings. I'm much more interested in Infinite Undiscovery than I am in White Knight Story. Alan Wake has a lot of hype but I'm not aboard the hype wagon yet. Halo Wars, Too Human, Fable 2, Banjo, I mean that's not bad and that's just what we know about.
Next year Sony may have sure fire AAA games that we know are coming like FFXIII, GT5, and MGS4 but everything else other than maybe LBP can't really expect to sell such huge numbers out of the gate.
360 is another story but there are plenty of promising games comprable to Sony's offerings. I'm much more interested in Infinite Undiscovery than I am in White Knight Story. Alan Wake has a lot of hype but I'm not aboard the hype wagon yet. Halo Wars, Too Human, Fable 2, Banjo, I mean that's not bad and that's just what we know about.
Next year Sony may have sure fire AAA games that we know are coming like FFXIII, GT5, and MGS4 but everything else other than maybe LBP can't really expect to sell such huge numbers out of the gate.
BolognaOni
Member
Well, looks like something of an interesting book, although I'm not surprised to see the discussion has devolved into fanboy drivel.
According to reader comments on the page the book's title is somewhat sensationalist (you think?), and behind it is more of a treatment of corporate politics at Sony. It should be clear even to those that think the PS3 is destined for eventual success that the development and launch strategy was somewhat shaky.
I think the jury is still out on the PS3, it's really too early to tell how things are going to end up this gen. I don't think that either MS or Sony are going to race to get the next system out, as both have ended up losing as a result this gen.
Comparisons with the PS2 are valid, that system didn't sell like gangbusters at the start of it's life either (mostly due to the lack of compelling software). However, the marketplace then was much less competitive than it was now, hence the perception of failure for the PS3.
According to reader comments on the page the book's title is somewhat sensationalist (you think?), and behind it is more of a treatment of corporate politics at Sony. It should be clear even to those that think the PS3 is destined for eventual success that the development and launch strategy was somewhat shaky.
I think the jury is still out on the PS3, it's really too early to tell how things are going to end up this gen. I don't think that either MS or Sony are going to race to get the next system out, as both have ended up losing as a result this gen.
Comparisons with the PS2 are valid, that system didn't sell like gangbusters at the start of it's life either (mostly due to the lack of compelling software). However, the marketplace then was much less competitive than it was now, hence the perception of failure for the PS3.
Father_Brain
Banned
jarrod said:Games this gen that'll have sold 10m+ units by the end of 2008...
New Super Mario Bros. (already has)
Nintendogs (already has)
Brain-Age (almost there)
Brain-Age 2 (maybe)
Animal Crossing WW (almost there)
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (almost there)
Mario Kart DS (maybe)
Halo 3 (maybe)
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 (maybe)
Wii Sports (almost there)
Wii Play (maybe)
Wii Fit (maybe)
Super Mario Galaxy (maybe)
...and games that won't...
everything Wollan listed
Where's SSBB?
Dragona Akehi
Retired
BolognaOni said:
Are you in the same reality as I am, where PS2 suffered horrible shortages for a very long period of time because everyone and their mother NEEDED one? And sold a collective SHITTON?
Er, mostly to a lack of available supply... PS2 wasn't readily available on US shelves until summer/fall 2001 iirc. It managed to sell despite a lack of compelling software, much like Wii today.BolognaOni said:
Not moving 10m units. It might not even pass Melee imo.Father_Brain said:
jarrod said:
Well, I guess it's a personal thing in how you want to count a game. My personal opinion is that bundled software should not count as sales, since that would give an inaccurate view of how many games were actually sold. Also, it's easy to count Wii Sports, since it's JP software sales + units of Wii sold everywhere else, but it becomes harder with other bundles. If you count bundles, how many sales does Hexic have? Or Motorstorm/Resistance? Or JSRF/Sega GT? The list goes on. Since we can't accurately count every piece of bundled software, my view is that bundled software should not count at all as sales.
Beer Monkey
Member
Wollan said:
You are predicting that PS3 might sell the same amount in its second year as its first? Is that a good thing? How does that match up with their prior systems?
BolognaOni
Member
Dragona Akehi said:
I guess I'm thinking about the Japanese launch, as I was living there at the time. There were really no games for several months, and after the launch there was kind of a lull... Granted, yes, a lot of places were sold out, but either way, people were really not excited about the PS2 launch lineup (at least on the other side of the pacific).
But no one else was buying anything else at the time, so it didn't really matter... People who couldn't get a PS2 were just playing their PSs. DC was the only other new system, and we all know how well that was selling...
... I guess I have just defeated my own previous statement, obviously it would not be wise to compare PS2 and PS3 on numbers alone.
Either way, I do think it is much too early to declare the system a failure.
Well, this might seem a bit counter intuitive... but I think 360's expanded base over Xbox 1 will eventually carry Halo 3 past the 8m mark Halo 2 managed. It's also going to have a longer catalog shelf life and will be the only "Halo" on the system.Oblivion said:
Smash Brawl however, is launching later in the lifecycle than Melee did, and will probably be overshadowed by games like Mario Galaxy and Wii Sports/Play/Fit/Music/etc. I'm starting to think it won't be online now either, which while likely not lending a huge immediate dent in sales may cloud the title's overall appeal and longer term status. The benefits Brawl will have over Melee will be the dramatically increased potential base and the expanded appeal of adding in 3rd party characters, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough to outweigh other factors working against it.... bottom line, it's just a less important title on Wii than it was on GameCube.
Well sure... but if we use that standard, GT3 hasn't sold close to 15m units...909er said:
The other side of the coin, one could argue that bundled software like SMB, Tetris, VF1, GT3 or Wii Sports *was* what drove early system sales to some extent. These are all games that likely would've moved huge units on their lonesome too, it's not really comparable to a low end freebie like Hexic HD or an after the fact bomba-bundle like JSRF/Sega GT 2002.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
BolognaOni said:
In Japan alone, the PS2 sold more in it's first 48 hours on sale then the PS3 did in it's first 8 months on sale in it's home country.
Also if you look at the first month of sales for both units, it took the PS3 2 months on sale in two countries to sell what the PS2 did in 48 hours in only 1.
The PS2 did sell like gangbusters the second it hit retail shelves on March 4th, 2000.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
jarrod said:
Quiet you, you're ruining my Forza argument.
BolognaOni
Member
OldJadedGamer said:
Point taken, and I will admit that the PS3 is not selling nearly as well as PS2, despite the supply constraints.
To state my point more clearly, it wasn't until holiday season of '01 where PS2 sales really kicked into high gear, and the system was clear on it's way to tens of millions of units worldwide. GTA3 releasing that fall was part of what really took it to the next level (at least in the US), and gave it broader appeal in the marketplace.
I don't think PS3 is likely to replicate this success, but poor sales this year are not the death of the console either. If PS3 can be price competitive by next holiday season, and possibly produced a killer-app, things may yet turn for the system, and allow it to at least challenge for a decent market share.
jarrod said:
I definitely see you're point here, it's just I personally dislike adding assumptions into an argument about sales. It's true that games like Hexic and JSRF/Sega GT were on their own minor, and in the case of JSRF/Sega GT only got some attention due to the fact that it was 2 free games bundled at no extra cost. It's also true that Wii Sports may have sold massively on it's own (it has in Japan, though I personally don't think it would put up a proportionally similar number over here). But it's all assumptions. Maybe Wii Sports would've sold 10 million on it's own. Maybe it would've bombed.
And I agree with separating bundled sales from sales sales for games like GT3. People list 15 million for it, but the fact is it didn't SELL nearly that number. GT4's considerably lower sales number is more indicative of it's true sales potential (which is still huge). So when it's brought up that GT3 sold 15 million, it's somewhat dishonest in a argument about software sales. If people didn't know better, I could say JSRF sold 3 million copies.
Maxwell House
Member
Yes, but MOST of GT3's sales weren't in its first year. GT3 sold to the 80+ million PS2 userbase that is out there, not the 10 million that it was around when GT3 first came out.Wollan said:
And I don't think there is much of a chance that PS3 will end up with even half the userbase that the PS2 got when all is said and done.
DeadyFernGarden
Member
From where I am sitting this one year thing is affecting Sony big time. They desperately need quality software for the PS3 to sell. But guess what consumers want polished&long games and 360 has already hit this with an easier development platform.
Massive catch-22.
Massive catch-22.
dirtmonkey37
flinging feces ---->
Wollan said:
Wollan said:
[face_rolls_eyes]
I understand that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but you're adorning some super-tinted shades. I'm too tired to address each of your points I disagree with. I'll leave you with that.
Making a bold, thesis-like statement like this:
...is unecessary. As I mentioned, the statement above serves as a thesis alone. And, when people make statements that bold and that strong, they need to back it up with details. Your post has none of this. Sure, you have quantitative information in the form of the first-party and exclusive titles that are being released on the Playstation 3 platform, but those "facts" of yours in no way indicate that those Sony first party titles are better than titles like Alan Wake and the next Animal Crossing. You do nothing but list.
And as such, it's unecessary because it only angers the easily instigated forum member.
Maxwell House
Member
I notice that GTA4 PS3 sales have gone from 40% to 35%. :lolWollan said:
You better save.
That is still too high, though, IMO.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
wow - 4 million short of the target you thought they'd hit about 2 months ago for 2007?
Where is your confidence?
Aren't we at around 4 million sold globablly now? So... double the userbase in 16 weeks?
250,000 units a week globally for 16 weeks?
I hearby declare "Wollanville" has been twined with the foreign city of "Gahiggidsberg"
typhonsentra
Banned
Goddammit Wollan, stop taking this stuff so seriously.
ParticleReality
Banned
Wollan said:
You better save.
I love you so much Wollan but, I really doubt Alan Wake will be the big hit everyone hopes it will. Still, nothing you say will ever be wrong in my eyes, and I'm always here if you even need a buddy for sex.
Beer Monkey
Member
Wollan said:
So what you are saying is we should consider everything you say to be nonsense until there is a .jpg?
