Wii U Speculation Thread of Brains Beware: Wii U Re-Unveiling At E3 2012
- Thread starter bgassassin
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comedy bomb
Banned
With the recent Xbox ten rumors popping up, I wonder if we'll see both systems launch weeks apart like the Gamecube and original Xbox. I really don"t think we'll see Wii U before then, especially if they are waiting until June to re-unveil it.
Saint Gregory
Member
The original story floating around is that both consoles were going to have 256MB of RAM until Epic talked MS into doubling the RAM to accomodate GoW1. Sony then either doubled their RAM to match MS or doubled it after the design change to add the RSX depending on which story you believe. I still think they did to ensure they wouldn't be at half the RAM of the 360.JJConrad said:
That's a big variable so my estimate accounted for all the things a unified OS might do in next gen consoles. It probably will be a lot less than that though.bgassassin said:
Sorry to barge into GAF with a huge post like this, but I've been lurking in this thread for quite some time as it's probably the best way to follow Wii U news. Now I've finally got my account approved, let me share what I think we can say/speculate about the specs. I'm making some assumptions along the way, but I hope it makes sense.
The things we know relatively certain are that the CPU 'is based on' something similar to a POWER7 CPU, the graphics are by ATI, and the CPU has a lot of EDRAM on it. Here's what I think: like the reports say, the EDRAM will be only on the CPU and there won't be EDRAM on the GPU (like there was on the 360). The reason for this is that enough EDRAM for high resolution framebuffers is quite expensive, and even when you put in 20+ MB, there is still not enough for some 1080p configurations. Also, with a bottleneck EDRAM on the GPU it's harder to pull off a technique called deferred rendering, which is apparently the way to go for modern PC and PS3 games (need a dev to confirm this).
The fact that hardware designers put EDRAM on a CPU or GPU at all usually means they don't want that processor to spend a lot of time hogging a pool of memory that another processor needs to use. For example, if the 360 didn't have EDRAM on the GPU, both CPU and GPU would need access to the single pool of memory all the time, which means huge performance hits for each time one processor blocks access to the other. The PS3 doesn't have this problem because it has two pools of memory. Therefore I think the news of EDRAM on the Wii U CPU mean that it has a large single pool of memory like on the 360. It simply wouldn't make as much sense to put in 'lots' of EDRAM if the processors aren't going to compete for memory anyway. Now, a single pool of memory means that its size is a power of two - 512MB, 1GB, 2GB ..etc. That means that the Wii U simply can't have 1.5GB, it's either 1 or 2 GB. The memory type is probably GDDR5 or XDR2, as that's what AMD has been using lately.
People have been saying that it's impossible for the Wii U to have full-fledged POWER7 cores, and they're right. The POWER7 is huge and enterprisey, and lots of what's on a POWER7 chip is completely irrelevant for gaming. That's why I think that IBM is making a customized CPU of which the basics are the same as a POWER7, but the rest of the chip is much simpler. Doing that will probably allow IBM to make a small, cool chip that's very potent. One thing we will probably see coming back is the VMX128 instruction set, that IBM used to spice up the Xbox 360 gaming performance.
The usage of VMX128 is probably why a modified Xbox 360 CPU was used in devkits (as it's the only available CPU that supports it already) and caused some rumors conflicting with the POWER7 news about what the Wii U can actually do. If Nintendo used the Xbox 360 CPU in early devkits, it also explains why we heard rumours about GDDR3 memory and the R770 chip. The Xbox 360 CPU only has a memory controller for GDDR3, so Nintendo was forced to use it in the devkit. Furthermore, they needed a GPU that has a GDDR3 memory controller. The last reasonably powerful AMD chip to have that was the R770 (used GDDR3 on the 4830 and 4850).
The final chip will probably be a more up-to-date design. I'm guessing it's roughly similar to what AMD has planned for the next series of Radeon chips, but maybe a bit more cut down and produce it on a larger production process. A chip with 512 shaders (VLIW4) at fairly high clock speed would probably match the R770 in shading performance. Hopefully Nintendo doesn't cut down on chip features such as ROPs and texture units. ROPs are really limiting the PS360 to go beyond 720p graphics.
Looking at the Wii U case and knowing Nintendo's hardware designs of the last ten years, I don't think Nintendo's aiming for a 100W power envelope, and probably more at 75W. That's why I think our expectations should be a bit modest. I'm guessing we'll see something like this eventually:
- CPU based on heavily customized POWER7 cores, at 2.5-3.5 GHz clock speed. Rumours seem to indicate it's a triple core, though that could just be the hypothetical Xbox 360 based devkit.
- 16 (maybe 24, seems expensive though) MB of EDRAM for the CPU
- 1-2 GB of GDDR5. I think Nintendo seems to be going for 1 GB now, but maybe developers and the competition will convince Nintendo to go for 2. Shouldn't be that expensive.
- 700-800 MHz GPU with ~512 shader processors
- GPU will feature a tesselator and other DX11 style goodies
One thing I'm wondering is how Nintendo is going to solve the fact that PS360 games tend to take so incredibly long to load without installing them to the hard drive, when they don't intend to have a hard drive at all...
The things we know relatively certain are that the CPU 'is based on' something similar to a POWER7 CPU, the graphics are by ATI, and the CPU has a lot of EDRAM on it. Here's what I think: like the reports say, the EDRAM will be only on the CPU and there won't be EDRAM on the GPU (like there was on the 360). The reason for this is that enough EDRAM for high resolution framebuffers is quite expensive, and even when you put in 20+ MB, there is still not enough for some 1080p configurations. Also, with a bottleneck EDRAM on the GPU it's harder to pull off a technique called deferred rendering, which is apparently the way to go for modern PC and PS3 games (need a dev to confirm this).
The fact that hardware designers put EDRAM on a CPU or GPU at all usually means they don't want that processor to spend a lot of time hogging a pool of memory that another processor needs to use. For example, if the 360 didn't have EDRAM on the GPU, both CPU and GPU would need access to the single pool of memory all the time, which means huge performance hits for each time one processor blocks access to the other. The PS3 doesn't have this problem because it has two pools of memory. Therefore I think the news of EDRAM on the Wii U CPU mean that it has a large single pool of memory like on the 360. It simply wouldn't make as much sense to put in 'lots' of EDRAM if the processors aren't going to compete for memory anyway. Now, a single pool of memory means that its size is a power of two - 512MB, 1GB, 2GB ..etc. That means that the Wii U simply can't have 1.5GB, it's either 1 or 2 GB. The memory type is probably GDDR5 or XDR2, as that's what AMD has been using lately.
People have been saying that it's impossible for the Wii U to have full-fledged POWER7 cores, and they're right. The POWER7 is huge and enterprisey, and lots of what's on a POWER7 chip is completely irrelevant for gaming. That's why I think that IBM is making a customized CPU of which the basics are the same as a POWER7, but the rest of the chip is much simpler. Doing that will probably allow IBM to make a small, cool chip that's very potent. One thing we will probably see coming back is the VMX128 instruction set, that IBM used to spice up the Xbox 360 gaming performance.
The usage of VMX128 is probably why a modified Xbox 360 CPU was used in devkits (as it's the only available CPU that supports it already) and caused some rumors conflicting with the POWER7 news about what the Wii U can actually do. If Nintendo used the Xbox 360 CPU in early devkits, it also explains why we heard rumours about GDDR3 memory and the R770 chip. The Xbox 360 CPU only has a memory controller for GDDR3, so Nintendo was forced to use it in the devkit. Furthermore, they needed a GPU that has a GDDR3 memory controller. The last reasonably powerful AMD chip to have that was the R770 (used GDDR3 on the 4830 and 4850).
The final chip will probably be a more up-to-date design. I'm guessing it's roughly similar to what AMD has planned for the next series of Radeon chips, but maybe a bit more cut down and produce it on a larger production process. A chip with 512 shaders (VLIW4) at fairly high clock speed would probably match the R770 in shading performance. Hopefully Nintendo doesn't cut down on chip features such as ROPs and texture units. ROPs are really limiting the PS360 to go beyond 720p graphics.
Looking at the Wii U case and knowing Nintendo's hardware designs of the last ten years, I don't think Nintendo's aiming for a 100W power envelope, and probably more at 75W. That's why I think our expectations should be a bit modest. I'm guessing we'll see something like this eventually:
- CPU based on heavily customized POWER7 cores, at 2.5-3.5 GHz clock speed. Rumours seem to indicate it's a triple core, though that could just be the hypothetical Xbox 360 based devkit.
- 16 (maybe 24, seems expensive though) MB of EDRAM for the CPU
- 1-2 GB of GDDR5. I think Nintendo seems to be going for 1 GB now, but maybe developers and the competition will convince Nintendo to go for 2. Shouldn't be that expensive.
- 700-800 MHz GPU with ~512 shader processors
- GPU will feature a tesselator and other DX11 style goodies
One thing I'm wondering is how Nintendo is going to solve the fact that PS360 games tend to take so incredibly long to load without installing them to the hard drive, when they don't intend to have a hard drive at all...
DCKing said:
From what we know, they are going to support external USB drives. This will solve the problem for gamers who are really keen on lowering their load times. Of course all games will still need to work without that drive, but maybe there will be an option to use some of the flash memory if you really want to for core/common assets.
Sorry to ignore the rest of your post, I can't add anything
Error Macro
Member
Ookami-kun said:
You know, *looks around* I've never played CTR. :-O Maybe I should look into that...
Gaborn said:
That's true. Though I did enjoy Double Dash's multiplayer quite a bit. But if there's one thing that MK64 got right (and probably the only thing!) it's the Battle Mode. Yes, Nintendo needs to fix that up, pronto.
DCKing said:
Lots of eDram wouldn't make deferred rendering difficult, but it would be unnecessary. As they use only a small on-chip buffer to render parts of the frame tile by tile. At least if you're talking about the standard deferred tile based rendering used by Imagination Technologies (PowerVR). However AMD don't use this technology AFAIK.
EDIT: Ah think you're talking about a different kind of deferred rendering to me.
DCKing said:
Power7 AFAIK is built to use large caches, also I think a large cache on the CPU would be their to reduce latency problems for the CPU. Where as a large buffer on the GPU would be their to reduce bandwidth requirements on main memory. So they're there for different reasons and would certainly both be beneficial in the same system. For example Gekko (GameCube's CPU) had a lot of cache for its time, and the GPU still used eDram.
DCKing said:
What if they use triple channel?
blu
Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
A couple or remarks on this part:DCKing said:
1. As you noted, it's preferable that the GPU and CPU had their local memory pools, for risks of getting what the original xbox had - severe bus contention issues. What you suggest as a solution to that by giving a (small) local mem pool to the CPU rather than to the GPU might be an original idea alas a doomed one. Why? The resolving of GPU's local fb has a very nice, uniform transaction pattern - once in a while the EDRAM-based framebuffer (tiled or otherwise) gets resolved to host memory, during the rest of the time the massive amount of GPU read-modify-writes remain invisible to the outside world. That's not the case with CPU's local mem - unless CPU's were to be strictly restricted to use that EDRAM as their entire mem pool, as some kind of 'exhaustive' scratch-pad mem, CPU memory access patterns are bound to leave the local memory and spread to the host ram in the typical-for-CPU non-uniform manner (see: cache misses), where they will collide with the GPU's large BW apetites. So, to achieve benefits at CPU/GPU bus contention similar to what GPU-local EDRAM provides, you have to make the CPU's EDRAM the defacto main memory pool for the CPU, and leave the rest of sys mem as the defacto GPU memory pool. That model can be a hurdle to program under - imagine some ultra-expensive L3 cache misses.
2. Deferred shading is not necessarily hampered by the use of EDRAM fb. True, due to the massive storage requirements of the technique (G-buffers can be much fatter than framebuffers), tiling will likely need to be used with the EDRAM fb, but the drawbacks of that can be offset by the BW benefits that EDRAM can provide for the G-buffer.
Another remark goes to the reasons for the volume of main ram that you cite - they are rather artificial. Nothing dictates a power-of-two size.
Other than that, your post was interesting to read an sounds plausible (well, outside of the 75W PE which is rather optimistic for what components you listed ; )
Welcome to gaf!
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Very nice first post DCKing...I don't know much about this stuff but your post was very informative. Thanks.
Thanks for the clarifications and the warm welcome
So it seems my idea wouldn't work out well. Too bad, I thought I solved part of the puzzle :/
Donnie said:
Wouldn't a 'weird' amount of memory chips (6 for 1.5 GB) imply a pain-in-the-ass motherboard to build, as well as more complex chips to use the 192-bit bus? I really think Nintendo wants to keep things simple with the Wii U. Some NVIDIA cards do this, but those aren't complete game consoles...blu said:
You're probably right... GPU should work at a lower clockspeed though, I guess?blu said:
So it seems my idea wouldn't work out well. Too bad, I thought I solved part of the puzzle :/
DCKing said:Thanks for the clarifications and the warm welcome
Wouldn't a 'weird' amount of memory chips (6 for 1.5 GB) imply a pain-in-the-ass motherboard to build, as well as more complex chips to use the 192-bit bus? I really think Nintendo wants to keep things simple with the Wii U. Some NVIDIA cards do this, but those aren't complete game consoles...
You're probably right... GPU should work at a lower clockspeed though, I guess?
So it seems my idea wouldn't work out well. Too bad, I thought I solved part of the puzzle :/
Don't get down on it - that was one of the better GAF "first posts" I've seen and it is rooted in logic. In fact, some of the things you thought about (like why some devs called the first kit a "360 on steroids" or whatever) make complete sense. Using the Power Processing Element from Xenox/Cell instead of a PPC/Power 7 would make sense for dev kit purposes.
Eiji Aonuma and the future of motion control:
http://www.gamesradar.com/zelda-past-and-future-interview-koji-kondo-and-eiji-aonuma/?page=1
bgassassin
Member
Saint Gregory said:
According to this site:
Even after the reduction almost 20% of the memory still went towards the OS.
DCKing said:
Barge away with posts like that. I always enjoy reading logical speculation. For some reason I feel like I know you from another board. I had also felt they might have been using a modified Xenon early on.
As for your mention on the memory, six is definitely more manageable than what others are wanting for the other two consoles. I don't think they'd use an MCM in the style of PS3's RSX, but they could do three on the top side of the board and three on the bottom to save space.
Welcome to GAF by the way.
http://nintendoeverything.com/77443/reggie-talks-3ds-launch-mistakes/
Now I am pretty much convinced the WiiU will launch in November, despite the rumors of MS coming out with their console in 2012. Nintendo will put pressure on getting some a top title out for launch, but I doubt they want to rush. So its better to launch the console later than earlier. The question is, which game(s)?
And if they need to make sure their online services are running, they will probably need extra time as well. Especially if MS is putting the pressure on with Xbox Live.
By launching a year later from now, how much breathing room do they have to make last minute decisions about the hardware? For example, could Nintendo wait till E3 to gage public reaction to the WiiU, or what the competition is up to, to determine if its worth adding extra ram?
.
AceBandage
Banned
I really doubt they'll wait for November.
They'll want to get the system out well before the holidays to build up word of mouth.
They'll want to get the system out well before the holidays to build up word of mouth.
Unless they already had plans for a AAA first-party title at launch, it's definitely most reasonable to believe that it has been delayed. The belief that 3DS is a flop will take a very long time to shake. If 3DS had launched this month, no one would call it a flop or say that "it has no games." Now, that stigma will probably take another six months to a year shake off. First impressions are very important. The absolute earliest it'll release is the last week of September, and if that happens it'll probably only be in Japan. If Nintendo can't get their big titles ready by November, it'll even slip into 2013.AceBandage said:
AceBandage
Banned
Nintendo probably has AAA games that will be ready for launch. The problem with the 3DS was that they delayed the games to give 3rd parties room, but now that they aren't going to worry about that, they can get games out for launch easily.
It won't be a Mario or Zelda, obviously, but it will be titles that compliment a pretty strong third party lineup.
Metroid, F-Zero, Pokemon MMO (Mwhahaha), Pikmin 3.
Two of these plus the lineup of pretty high profile games from other companies would make for one of the best launches ever.
It won't be a Mario or Zelda, obviously, but it will be titles that compliment a pretty strong third party lineup.
Metroid, F-Zero, Pokemon MMO (Mwhahaha), Pikmin 3.
Two of these plus the lineup of pretty high profile games from other companies would make for one of the best launches ever.
The launch games should have been in full-fledged development for quite some time now. It really makes me wonder what we're getting. I'm guessing Darksiders II and Ninja Gaiden III are good third party games to start with. Then there's some EA stuff, and I think we'll get a broad selection of 'enhanced ports' of HD games or compilations (like Batman: Arkham City) . From Nintendo I think we may expect Pikmin 3 and New Super Mario Bros. (and probably Wii U Sports...), and hopefully something from Retro in Q4. Metro Last Light seems a pretty solid Q4 game as well.M.I.S. said:
Obviously no Zelda, but I think that, assuming they've been working on this for a while, they could rush Super Mario Galaxy 3 for WiiU launch. I would certainly love that over having to wait a year for the next innovative Mario that makes use of the WiiU pad (and we're going to get that game eventually anyway).AceBandage said:
Welcome back, Ace!
AceBandage
Banned
Javier said:
No Galaxy 3.
Super Mario with RTS elements.
Also, SHHH! The mods don't know I'm back yet.
>_>
<_<
POWERSPHERE
Member
I think they would be wishing they had the room to push Zelda Ss onto WiiU.
What big Wii games are slated for release that they could push onto it?
What big Wii games are slated for release that they could push onto it?
AceBandage
Banned
POWERSPHERE said:
Nothing?
After Rhythm Heaven, there's pretty much nothing.
I think they're going to want to to get NSMBMii out at launch at all costs now. The only one of those four that would be enough to ensure a blockbuster launch is the Pokemon MMO, and we know that that's the one that has no chance of happening. (If you try to have a dream of that happening, Masuda will magically appear in your house, slap you awake, and say "lolno" before Teleporting back to Game Freak.) Also, I doubt that Nintendo originally planned on having all of their online features ready at launch. They never do. June is out of the question no matter what.AceBandage said:
Oh, and welcome back. I forgot you were banned.
AceBandage
Banned
Well of course June is out of the question.
They are launching after E3.
And they don't have to have a blockbuster, just a really good game that will get people to look at their console.
They don't NEED a Mario game at launch to sell units.
A new Metroid Prime would help push units for launch and build up a good base for shooters.
They are launching after E3.
And they don't have to have a blockbuster, just a really good game that will get people to look at their console.
They don't NEED a Mario game at launch to sell units.
A new Metroid Prime would help push units for launch and build up a good base for shooters.
AceBandage
Banned
August or September are good bets, yes.
Gianni Merryman
Member
POWERSPHERE said:
I reckon a Xenoblade port could be possibly brought to WiiU as a launch title making the most of it with a view to establish it as a successful franchise.
Speaking of a most-appealing game to be launched with the console, a Mario kart game could do the job, whereas Metroid Prime, albeit it's one of my most anticipated games, has not such a wide commercial appeal, especially in Japan.
I bet September too.
And I'm pretty sure it will launch with wii fit u, new wii sports and new smbmii. They must be almost ready by this point and will show up in e3. And there's also the most probable pikmin. More a few 3d party titles and it'll be probably one of the best launch line up ever. To be perfect and reach the more hardcore gamers would be nice to have a good shooter (maybe retro?) as well as a good racer. But I doubt we will have them.
And I'm pretty sure it will launch with wii fit u, new wii sports and new smbmii. They must be almost ready by this point and will show up in e3. And there's also the most probable pikmin. More a few 3d party titles and it'll be probably one of the best launch line up ever. To be perfect and reach the more hardcore gamers would be nice to have a good shooter (maybe retro?) as well as a good racer. But I doubt we will have them.
Gianni Merryman
Member
Again on First-person-shooters, with upcoming titles such as Metro last night, Ghost recon and Killer freaks from space from Ubisoft, Alien and whatsnot, I don't think it should be a smart idea to rush things with Metroid prime.
Hm. Okay.AceBandage said:
I won't argue against your previous post, since we just have different opinions there.
Now, that still leaves the question of their network. Nintendo, for three systems in a row, has launched without full internet services. Wii U will be the first time they don't half-ass the launch, and I strongly think that they wanted to half-ass it at first. If that plan changed, they must have delayed it in some way. So, at least in the west, I don't see any type of remote chance of a launch earlier than late November.
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
Metroid Prime doesn't appeal to the mass first person shooter market anyway, nor should it.
Gianni Merryman
Member
EatChildren said:
On top of that, I recall Retro clearly stating after Corruption release that they were over with Metroid prime series, that they were sick of it and did want to work on something different and move on instead of being stuck as a one-trick-pony.
are we launch guessing again? Always like to do this - I added the studio who might be developing
launch frame (first 6 months)
NMBSWiiu (ead4 + tokyo 2 support)
Pikmin 3 (ead4)
Wario Wiiu Ware (NSPD & IS)
Intelligent System Demo Collection (bundled or wiiware, developed with NSDD)
Wii U Sports (EAD2)
a smaller 2nd party game (think excitetrucks/mario striker, monster games?)
Something to show off online gaming (2nd party? maybe nextlevel games)
Something out of the blue that is heavily upad focused, local multiplayer focused (ead5?)
something pokemon (genius)
something casual (ead5)
2013 (mid 2013 - holidays)
smashbros (sora + hal + paon - huge effort to finish this asap)
3D mario (tokyo1)
retro studio game
mario party wiiu (ndcube)
rpg (monolith)
mario kart (EAD1)
2014 (early Q1-Q2)
zelda (ead3)
This should leave some room for 3ds development while still giving heavy support for Wiiu. It also +/- follows the Wii's first 18-24 months release schedule, which was quite good at the time.
Wildcards: Capcom or SE project collab with a nintendo franchise.
launch frame (first 6 months)
NMBSWiiu (ead4 + tokyo 2 support)
Pikmin 3 (ead4)
Wario Wiiu Ware (NSPD & IS)
Intelligent System Demo Collection (bundled or wiiware, developed with NSDD)
Wii U Sports (EAD2)
a smaller 2nd party game (think excitetrucks/mario striker, monster games?)
Something to show off online gaming (2nd party? maybe nextlevel games)
Something out of the blue that is heavily upad focused, local multiplayer focused (ead5?)
something pokemon (genius)
something casual (ead5)
2013 (mid 2013 - holidays)
smashbros (sora + hal + paon - huge effort to finish this asap)
3D mario (tokyo1)
retro studio game
mario party wiiu (ndcube)
rpg (monolith)
mario kart (EAD1)
2014 (early Q1-Q2)
zelda (ead3)
This should leave some room for 3ds development while still giving heavy support for Wiiu. It also +/- follows the Wii's first 18-24 months release schedule, which was quite good at the time.
Wildcards: Capcom or SE project collab with a nintendo franchise.
:Motorbass
Member
Didn't Reggie say that SS wasn't the last big Wii game?AceBandage said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Post-2006 Blu-ray (equivalent) drives for one, I imagine. Looks like PS3 uses a 2x drive, but at least up to 12x is available right now.DCKing said:
Well, he's pretty much got to talk up whatever is there.:Motorbass said:
Orbis Tabula
Member
I would hate for SMG3 to be a WiiU launch title.
I would love for NSMB to be a WiiU launch title.
I would love for NSMB to be a WiiU launch title.
Wii 2012:
Rhythm Heaven Fever
Pandora's Tower
Xenoblade
mario party 9
poképark
A localisation of one of the older japan only titles is possible..
I wouldn't expect much else tbh... Maybe a smaller casual title, but if you look at their developers (listed in my post above) I would assume they are focussing on WiiU & 3DS.
Rhythm Heaven Fever
Pandora's Tower
Xenoblade
mario party 9
poképark
A localisation of one of the older japan only titles is possible..
I wouldn't expect much else tbh... Maybe a smaller casual title, but if you look at their developers (listed in my post above) I would assume they are focussing on WiiU & 3DS.
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