I think MS would be smart if they treated Japan as a third party market. They've had console failure after console failure there. Might as well maximize revenue and profits and eliminate costs.
Release all Xbox Series S games on Switch 2 (exclusively in Japan).
The Switch 2 will be significantly more powerful than Switch 1, even just natively, based on Nintendo patterns (Wii U was a huge upgrade over Wii, which was a minor upgrade over GameCube, which was a huge upgrade over N64, etc). But factoring in dlss 2.1 or more and suddenly the Switch 2 will probably be able to play Series S versions of games with some minor adjustments.
Why sell 10,000 copies of a AAA games when you could ditch the hardware for the region and sell 2.5 million copies of the game?