Bobby Roberts
Banned
I think they could drop November 9th and be okay.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Wkd BO 0707-0917 - Minions cede dominion over box office, Homecoming KING
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
I think they could drop November 9th and be okay.
Hm, kinda wanted Seydoux back, to be honest.
Then again, they'll definitely fridge her if they brought her back.
BronsonLee
Member
Real goddamn tired of Bond Girls getting fridged cuh
LordOfLore
Banned
I think we all are.
Sort of actually surprised that none of the movies have brought a Bond Girl back. It might not work with Craig!Bond since he's pretty much a reboot but imagine a mission that ends up in China and Michelle Yeoh shows up in her old role to help assist Bond.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Monica Bellucci got to live!
Here an updated list of the top 50 comic book films based on relative popularity in their year of release.
If you missed out on previous lists where I used this method, it is an alternative to using ticket price inflation (which has some widely discussed drawbacks). You can get a relative measure of how popular a film was in the year of its release by dividing its domestic gross by the average gross for all wide releases in that particular year. A film that made $300M in a year where the average film made $60M was 5x as popular as the average release this year. This allows a more apples to apples "popularity" measure across decades, as it negates the need to factor in changes in movie/entertainment consumption, the number of wide releases in a year, the rise of 3D, etc.
The 50 most popular comic films domestically at the time of their release
Notes:
- Wonder Woman and GOTG2 received estimated finishing totals. GotG2 should end within $2M of the estimate. Wonder Woman within $5M of the estimate.
- I have a ballpark $300M estimate for Spider-Man Homecoming to give a rough idea of where it ranks compared to other Spider-films. Spider-Man Homecoming is probably looking at a final tally of $280M on the low end and $350M on the high end. Typical comic legs for this time of year would be $290-320M. It is too early to get any more precise than that.
- I had to estimate the average annual gross for 1978-1981 and for this year. The early estimates should be pretty close. This year's estimate is +/- $5M, which would bump all of the 2017 films up or down a few spots. We won't know better until next March.
If you missed out on previous lists where I used this method, it is an alternative to using ticket price inflation (which has some widely discussed drawbacks). You can get a relative measure of how popular a film was in the year of its release by dividing its domestic gross by the average gross for all wide releases in that particular year. A film that made $300M in a year where the average film made $60M was 5x as popular as the average release this year. This allows a more apples to apples "popularity" measure across decades, as it negates the need to factor in changes in movie/entertainment consumption, the number of wide releases in a year, the rise of 3D, etc.
The 50 most popular comic films domestically at the time of their release
Code:
[B]Rank Title DOM Gross Release Date Ann. Avg Gross [/B]Avg. Gross Mult
1 The Dark Knight $534,858,444 7/18/2008 $55,202,302 9.69x
2 Marvel's The Avengers $623,357,910 5/4/2012 $72,191,281 8.63x
3 Batman $251,188,924 6/23/1989 $33,000,766 7.61x
4 Spider-Man $403,706,375 5/3/2002 $57,563,869 7.01x
5 Spider-Man 3 $336,530,303 5/4/2007 $49,880,317 6.75x
6 Avengers: Age of Ultron $459,005,868 5/1/2015 $69,975,569 6.56x
7 Spider-Man 2 $373,585,825 6/30/2004 $59,227,007 6.31x
8 The Dark Knight Rises $448,139,099 7/20/2012 $72,191,281 6.21x
9 Captain America: Civil War $408,084,349 5/6/2016 $66,790,970 6.11x
10 Men in Black $250,690,539 7/2/1997 $42,461,771 5.90x
11 Iron Man $318,412,101 5/2/2008 $55,202,302 5.77x
12 Wonder Woman $400,000,000 6/2/2017 $70,000,000 5.71x
13 Iron Man 3 $409,013,994 5/3/2013 $72,374,829 5.65x
14 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $390,000,000 5/5/2017 $70,000,000 5.57x
15 Batman Forever $184,031,112 6/16/1995 $33,671,473 5.47x
16 Deadpool $363,070,709 2/12/2016 $66,790,970 5.44x
17 Superman $134,218,018 12/15/1978 $25,000,000 5.37x
18 Guardians of the Galaxy $333,176,600 8/1/2014 $65,542,400 5.08x
19 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $330,360,194 3/25/2016 $66,790,970 4.95x
20 Suicide Squad $325,100,054 8/5/2016 $66,790,970 4.87x
21 X-Men: The Last Stand $234,362,462 5/26/2006 $50,886,999 4.61x
22 Batman Returns $162,831,698 6/19/1992 $36,199,432 4.50x
23 The Incredibles $261,441,092 11/5/2004 $59,227,007 4.41x
24 Iron Man 2 $312,433,331 5/7/2010 $71,180,641 4.39x
25 Superman II $108,185,706 6/19/1981 $25,000,000 4.33x
26 Spider-Man: Homecoming $300,000,000 7/7/2017 $70,000,000 4.29x
27 300 $210,614,939 3/9/2007 $49,880,317 4.22x
28 Hancock $227,946,274 7/2/2008 $55,202,302 4.13x
29 Man of Steel $291,045,518 6/14/2013 $72,374,829 4.02x
30 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $259,766,572 4/4/2014 $65,542,400 3.96x
31 Superman Returns $200,081,192 6/28/2006 $50,886,999 3.93x
32 Batman Begins $206,852,432 6/15/2005 $54,579,849 3.79x
33 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles $135,265,915 3/30/1990 $36,642,628 3.69x
34 The Amazing Spider-Man $262,030,663 7/3/2012 $72,191,281 3.63x
35 X-Men: Days of Future Past $233,921,534 5/23/2014 $65,542,400 3.57x
36 X2: X-Men United $214,949,694 5/2/2003 $60,282,246 3.57x
37 Doctor Strange $232,641,920 11/4/2016 $66,790,970 3.48x
38 The Mask $119,938,730 7/29/1994 $34,833,770 3.44x
39 Big Hero 6 $222,527,828 11/7/2014 $65,542,400 3.40x
40 Men in Black II $190,418,803 7/3/2002 $57,563,869 3.31x
41 Logan $226,122,357 3/3/2017 $70,000,000 3.23x
42 X-Men $157,299,717 7/14/2000 $48,984,150 3.21x
43 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $202,853,933 5/2/2014 $65,542,400 3.10x
44 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) $191,204,754 8/8/2014 $65,542,400 2.92x
45 Thor: The Dark World $206,362,140 11/8/2013 $72,374,829 2.85x
46 Fantastic Four (2005) $154,696,080 7/8/2005 $54,579,849 2.83x
47 Dick Tracy $103,738,726 6/15/1990 $36,642,628 2.83x
48 Thor $181,030,624 5/6/2011 $66,489,281 2.72x
49 Captain America: The First Avenger $176,654,505 7/22/2011 $66,489,281 2.66x
50 Fantastic Four: RotSS $131,921,738 6/15/2007 $49,880,317 2.64xNotes:
- Wonder Woman and GOTG2 received estimated finishing totals. GotG2 should end within $2M of the estimate. Wonder Woman within $5M of the estimate.
- I have a ballpark $300M estimate for Spider-Man Homecoming to give a rough idea of where it ranks compared to other Spider-films. Spider-Man Homecoming is probably looking at a final tally of $280M on the low end and $350M on the high end. Typical comic legs for this time of year would be $290-320M. It is too early to get any more precise than that.
- I had to estimate the average annual gross for 1978-1981 and for this year. The early estimates should be pretty close. This year's estimate is +/- $5M, which would bump all of the 2017 films up or down a few spots. We won't know better until next March.
Alex_Mexico
Member
In curious as to what your day job might be. You're too good at this not to get paid for it.
Considering how some Bond girls go out, I Would disagree.
MHWilliams
Member
The Mumei seal of approval!
Hancock holding it down at 28. Those were the days.
Effigenius
Member
What is the multiplier like for non-Wonder Woman superhero films these days?
I didn't know this was a thing, but it has it!
I haven't seen Spider-Man or Spider-Man 2 in at least a good ten years now, though I doubt I'd change my mind.
The previous two films made over $1B WW.
2.4-3x given that it's summer.
A 50% decline from the last movie.
$217 million before marketing, and down almost 50% over the last film worldwide.
It'll end up being the lowest grossing of the series by a pretty large margin.
What? I'm pretty sure it's not.
There's a 24-hour news channel in my city (Toronto, Canada) that has little one-sentence news blurbs that cycle through at the bottom of the screen. Channel is Cable Pulse 24.
Anyhow one of the blurbs said something like "The action-musical Baby Driver had a great weekend at the box office with X dollars."
I'm basing it just off that haha, and trying not to look it up myself to avoid spoilers I guess.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
It's not a musical, at least in the "people sing and randomly break out into song" way. Think Guardians of the Galaxy.
I don't like musicals at all... sorry Toa TAK.
But:
I'm in if the movie doesn't have people just singing huge musical numbers like in Rent or Frozen or Grease.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 is a solid 10/10 movie for me. Loved that one.
You only gotta apologize to yourself
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
That's a pretty bad ratio and a massive drop from the prior film. They're lucky they got a good deal on Chinese distribution and have all those product placement/marketing deals.
It's doing worse than the previous movies...thankfully.
Fancyarcher
Member
Zemo "When is it time to reveal myself? Now, now, now, c'mon!"
cartographer
Member
This was a good thread title.
Come at me.
Come at me.
MHWilliams
Member
Again, folks tend to not realize that films can be profitable, but far off studio expectations in a negative manner. It's not enough to go into the black, you also have to meet and exceed studio estimates.
Which is to say, for most sequels, the numbers gotta go up. Transformers is down 40-50 percent.
Damn right, if Gunn nails the third one, we could honestly be looking at one of the best trilogies ever. Crazy how many people are sleeping on Vol. 2.
Lightning_Roller
Banned
So the beast is slain? The nightmare is over and we can rest easy?
Idk you guys well, but GOTG 2 is in top 3 of MCU movies.
Damn right, if Gunn nails the third one, we could honestly be looking at one of the best trilogies ever. Crazy how many people are sleeping on Vol. 2.
3.
GOTG 2
Winter Soldier=The Avengers
Thor the dark world
its actually Civil War
I want to rewatch Spidey to see where it falls on my list, but I think it's going to be in my top five.
JesseEwiak
Member
If Transformers is dying off even internationally, how is PotC holding on? Only coming around ever 4-5 years? Johnny Depp is still that much of a global star? Pirates are still cool as hell?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Budget wise you mean?
hodayathink
Member
There are/were rumors that Infinity War is up near $400 million (and rumors that Avengers 3 and 4 together are a billion dollar production).
It is a "musical" in that the dude listens to music and pulls awesome stunts in time with the music. The entire movie is acted, shot, and edited to the beat. It's not people breaking out into songs, it is the songs directing the action unfolding on screen. Watch it and you'll have a blast.
Uhhh No? I mean a fuck ton of sequences are choreographed to music, so I can sorta see why it's getting that classification. But that's it.
Congrats to Chamber & Harmen for their Homecoming predictions. Both predicted 117M OW exactly.
GAF average was 118M so pretty much on expectations. It's no GOTG2 or Age of Ultron.
GAF average was 118M so pretty much on expectations. It's no GOTG2 or Age of Ultron.
2 billion if some GAFFers are to be believed.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
no
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
It's Warner Bros, the studio that managed to lose money on a movie that earned $940M, so that's probably a low ball estimate if anything.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
?
I assume you're referring to Order of the Phoenix, based off of that number. And no, they didn't lose money (no movie making that much has). Not really. Hollywood accounting is a wonderful thing.