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[kswiston]

https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/809997131465551872

70-72M should be good enough for $150M+

Looking at the national forecasts for Sat/Sun evening, things look pretty good. The East coast and the great lakes states are in for some rain, which might lead to ice overnight, but that's about it for bad weather.

$72M might even give us something close to $160M.

$158.412M knocks The Dark Knight out of the top 10 openings.

 

[vinnygambini]

https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/809997131465551872

Should land on the higher end of the $145-155M I mentioned, pretty good.

 

[kswiston]

A $155M opening would be $500M domestic with Eragon legs.

EDIT: Also, I don't know if it was brought up, but Secret Life of Pets finally passed Despicable Me 2 last weekend to become Illumination's biggest domestic film to date.


The Domestic Top 5 this year is going to be either Dory or Rogue One, followed by Civil War, SLOP, and The Jungle Book. Worldwide top 5 is going to be Civil War, Finding Dory, Zootopia, and The Jungle Book, with Rogue One thrown somewhere in there depending on overseas legs.

I don't think I have to look through the years on BOM to say that no studio has ever taken all 5 slots of the Worldwide Top 5 in a single year before.

 

[MHWilliams]

$158.412M knocks The Dark Knight out of the top 10 openings.

Disney is coming for the king.

The Domestic Top 5 this year is going to be either Dory or Rogue One, followed by Civil War, SLOP, and The Jungle Book. Worldwide top 5 is going to be Civil War, Finding Dory, Zootopia, and The Jungle Book, with Rogue One thrown somewhere in there depending on overseas legs.

I don't think I have to look through the years on BOM to say that no studio has ever taken all 5 slots of the Worldwide Top 5 in a single year before.

Worldwide Top 5. Damn, Disney.

Next year will be harder. Transformers is straight money. Justice League will have legs if it's any good. Spider-Man is technically Sony's. Despicable Me 3 will probably take the domestic slot that SLOP took this year. And we'll see if Fast 8 holds onto than Furious 7 performance without Walker's death.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

If it gets to 160 opening weekend I could see this movie getting pretty close to 600mil domestic.

Which would put it at, what...150+ over the next highest grossing Star Wars film (TPM?)

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-preview-box-office-social-media-1201871704/

Deadline has Rogue One at $72.5M. It's definitely making a run for $160M OW if that holds.

 

[kswiston]

If it gets to 160 opening weekend I could see this movie getting pretty close to 600mil domestic.

Which would put it at, what...150+ over the next highest grossing Star Wars film (TPM?)

Closer to $125M if you are throwing in that 3D re-release.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Just a little north of 600mil is what most sane people were calling for TFA in the last days, on the upper end, wasn't it?

 

[kswiston]

Just a little north of 600mil is what most sane people were calling for TFA in the last days, on the upper end, wasn't it?

What are you calling the last days? We had >Avatar predictions from places like Boxoffice.com before the Thursday previews were out.


Adjusted initial box office runs for Empire, Jedi, and TPM were all in the $650-700M range last year, so I figured that was an appropriate range back before the $100M presales announcements. Jurassic World had just broken $650M domestic, so it seemed to be a toss up between that and TFA for the year. It ended up being a tossup between that and TFA for the calendar year.


EDIT: I don't want to get too ahead of things on Rogue One. Anything over $500M would be amazing.

 

[3N16MA]

Just a little north of 600mil is what most sane people were calling for TFA in the last days, on the upper end, wasn't it?

My prediction from the prediction thread:

OW: 228M
Domestic: 810M
OS: 1.4B
WW: 2.210B

 

[MHWilliams]

What are you calling the last days? We had >Avatar predictions from places like Boxoffice.com before the Thursday previews were out.

Adjusted initial box office runs for Empire, Jedi, and TPM were all in the $650-700M range last year, so I figured that was an appropriate range back before the $100M presales announcements. Jurassic World had just broken $650M domestic, so it seemed to be a toss up between that and TFA for the year. It ended up being a tossup between that and TFA for the calendar year.

EDIT: I don't want to get too ahead of things on Rogue One. Anything over $500M would be amazing.

I'm not seeing it that high.

I liked Rogue One a lot, but it's a downer of a film. I'm not seeing the mainstream rewatches as high as they were for TFA.

EDIT: $1.8 billion? Above Jurassic, below TFA.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I'm not seeing it that high.

I liked Rogue One a lot, but it's a downer of a film. I'm not seeing the mainstream rewatches as high as they were for TFA.

It's a downer, but I could see it still clicking with people big time. The ending still gives a sense of a New Hope when the credits start.

Also, dat

Spoiler

Darth Voorhees

scene that I have wanted for decades.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

So yeah, 650 mil was what people were calling for TFA as its ceiling just before it opened then?

Just saying, for purposes of comparison, the behemoth that TFA ended up being is so big that there's an outer possibility that Rogue One could actually HIT the mark everyone thought TFA would be lucky to settle at - and there will be people who will consider that disappointing now.

Not saying it could hit 650mil. I think 500 is a lock if it opens at 160 this weekend. But just trying to lend some perspective to the numbers it might pull in re: comparing it to last year's Star Wars film.

 

[MHWilliams]

So yeah, 650 mil was what people were calling for TFA as its ceiling just before it opened then?

Just saying, for purposes of comparison, the behemoth that TFA ended up being is so big that there's an outer possibility that Rogue One could actually HIT the mark everyone thought TFA would be lucky to settle at - and there will be people who will consider that disappointing now.

Not saying it could hit 650mil. I think 500 is a lock if it opens at 160 this weekend. But just trying to lend some perspective to the numbers it might pull in re: comparing it to last year's Star Wars film.

That's the business. Always gotta do better or you're failing.

 

[3N16MA]

So yeah, 650 mil was what people were calling for TFA as its ceiling just before it opened then?

Just saying, for purposes of comparison, the behemoth that TFA ended up being is so big that there's an outer possibility that Rogue One could actually HIT the mark everyone thought TFA would be lucky to settle at - and there will be people who will consider that disappointing now.

Not saying it could hit 650mil. I think 500 is a lock if it opens at 160 this weekend. But just trying to lend some perspective to the numbers it might pull in re: comparing it to last year's Star Wars film.

BOM OW estimate was 231M for TFA. I assuming they thought it would surpass 700M with that opening. Boxoffice.com had it at 762M DOM 2 months out.

 

[CaviarMeths]

I think I had Rogue One at $120m opening / $450 domestic back in kswiston's thread earlier in the year. Guess I pulled a Disney with a modest prediction.

Overseas is lower than I thought they would be, but it should still clear a billion WW without much trouble. It's still got a shot at beating Civil War, but would need to increase by quite a bit in China over TFA.

 

[kswiston]

I'm not seeing it that high.

I liked Rogue One a lot, but it's a downer of a film. I'm not seeing the mainstream rewatches as high as they were for TFA.

It's not more of a downer than I Am Legend.

I Am Legend opened in the second weekend of December, hitting the holidays a week later. I Am Legend was also pretty frontloaded for a December film. Accounting for the radically different previews ($29M vs $1.7M), Rogue One would still hit $470M domestic with I am Legend Legs.

EDIT: Also, my post was mostly talking about The Force Awakens early predictions until that last sentence. I think Rogue One is going to land somewhere between $1-1.25B depending on various factors. Probably closer to the low end of that unless legs are great everywhere or China is huge.

My prediction from the prediction thread:

OW: 228M
Domestic: 810M
OS: 1.4B
WW: 2.210B

I think you were one of the highest somewhat realistic predictions in that thread.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.

 

[MHWilliams]

If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.

I mean, how much more of a blank check could Kathleen Kennedy get?

I feel like $500 is a lock. Ultron crawled its way to $450 million and that was a rough goddamn film.

 

[kswiston]

If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.

Even $500M is still 7th of all time.

 

[Boke1879]

If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.

Completely agree. Not to mention the amount of merch they'll sell having a movie out every year. Damn.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Hopefully it would get them to greenlight a Darth Vader movie before James Earl Jones passes.

I'm kind of shocked they haven't already, since that seems like the obvious biggest anthology film they could do. Certainly bigger than Boba Fett.

 

[3N16MA]

The Han Solo film will fall under Rogue One.

Only dig up this post in a couple of years if I'm right.

 

[kswiston]

I am probably in the minority, but I wish that Lucasfilm would stop mining the OT after the Han Solo film, and start filling in the gaps between Jedi and TFA with their spin-off films. Either that, or focus on post Ep9 films.

The Han Solo film will fall under Rogue One.

Only dig up this post in a couple of years if I'm right.

That's the easiest prediction of all time.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I still think Donnie Yen is the wild card for how this plays in China. I can see it going over TFA just because of him.

 

[3N16MA]

I am probably in the minority, but I wish that Lucasfilm would stop mining the OT after the Han Solo film, and start filling in the gaps between Jedi and TFA with their spin-off films. Either that, or focus on post Ep9 films.




That's the easiest prediction of all time.

I only make the easy ones.

 

[kswiston]

I only make the easy ones.

I say that assuming the May date sticks for AVATAR reasons.

Han Solo launches 6 months after the previous Star Wars film and has Infinity War and Jurassic World 2 a few weeks on either side of it. Rogue One has a big ball of nothing outside of some mild audience crossover from Sing. It also has novelty working for it.

 

[Boke1879]

Hopefully it would get them to greenlight a Darth Vader movie before James Earl Jones passes.

I'm kind of shocked they haven't already, since that seems like the obvious biggest anthology film they could do. Certainly bigger than Boba Fett.

Personally I'm not with that. You don't need to over saturate with Vader. I think what they did with him in this movie was perfect, and you get plenty of him in the OT.

I also agree that after the Han Solo movie they should pull away from the familiarity. Do a bounty hunter movie. Something that's removed from the Empire/rebels and with very little ties to the OT.

 

[3N16MA]

I agree on Vader. No need for a solo film.

As much as we know about his past and his life, he is still shrouded in some mystery. Adds to the excitement of seeing him on screen.

 

[BumRush]

New York got / is getting some decent snow right now. I'd expect day time showings to take a hit if much of the North East is similar

 

[kswiston]

New York got / is getting some decent snow right now. I'd expect day time showings to take a hit if much of the North East is similar

Maybe, but they are less important than the afternoon and evening shows. It's supposed to be 40 degrees this afternoon in NYC, and even warmer overnight.


So Deadline had early Friday (and less useful weekend) estimates for the top 10. Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange were predictably hit by Rogue One, but it could have been much worse. They have Strange down 51% on Friday and Beasts down 52%. If that is ballpark accurate, neither are going to see anything close to a 60% drop this weekend.

Moana is proceeding like it's just another weekend, with Friday being down around 30% from last week.

 

[CaviarMeths]

I need an anthology film where events or characters aren't directly tied to any of the Saga films. Do KOTOR or something, I dunno.

 

[Chezzymann]

I need an anthology film where events or characters aren't directly tied to any of the Saga films. Do KOTOR or something, I dunno.

If this does get ~650 I bet they'll be more encouraged to do things like that

 

[BumRush]

Maybe, but they are less important than the afternoon and evening shows. It's supposed to be 40 degrees this afternoon in NYC, and even warmer overnight.


So Deadline had early Friday (and less useful weekend) estimates for the top 10. Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange were predictably hit by Rogue One, but it could have been much worse. They have Strange down 51% on Friday and Beasts down 52%. If that is ballpark accurate, neither are going to see anything close to a 60% drop this weekend.

Moana is proceeding like it's just another weekend, with Friday being down around 30% from last week.

Good lord at those drops...very impressive.

 

[Chezzymann]

I wonder if moana will increase on Christmas weekend or if Sing will suck the life out of it

 

[Cheebo]

So with how Rogue One is doing how many years till Lucasfilm starts trying to go more Marvel and see if they can pull off two films a year instead of one? Money talks.

Post "phase one" that ends with IX in 2019 I could see them shifting to a two film a year model.

I say that assuming the May date sticks for AVATAR reasons.

Han Solo launches 6 months after the previous Star Wars film and has Infinity War and Jurassic World 2 a few weeks on either side of it. Rogue One has a big ball of nothing outside of some mild audience crossover from Sing. It also has novelty working for it.

Interesting note about Han Solo, Jason Ward of MakingStarWars who is well known in the Star Wars leaks world says his contacts at Lucasfilm are telling him Han Solo is likely to shift to December 2018. So it may not end up coming in May after all.

 

[kswiston]

Good lord at those drops...very impressive.

Doc Strange's theater drop wasn't as bad as it could have been. It lost 833 venues, but is still playing in 1930 theatres. Moana lost 288 venues, and Fantastic Beasts lost 590. This week's sacrifices were Allied (down ~1400 to 1625), Bad Santa 2 (down 1620 to 414), and Incarnate (down 1419 to 318). Hacksaw Ridge and Trolls also saw pretty big drops.

I wonder if moana will increase on Christmas weekend or if Sing will suck the life out of it

The Christmas period is usually pretty robust, but we have never had huge animated films opening on both Thanksgiving and Xmas as far as I can remember. It's hard to say. I'd guess that Moana drops though. It would be a shame it Moana is stopped dead, because early review point to Sing being another mediocre Illumination film.

 

[BumRush]

Doc Strange's theater drop wasn't as bad as it could have been. It lost 833 venues, but is still playing in 1930 theatres. Moana lost 288 venues, and Fantastic Beasts lost 590. This week's sacrifices were Allied (down ~1400 to 1625), Bad Santa 2 (down 1620 to 414), and Incarnate (down 1419 to 318). Hacksaw Ridge and Trolls also saw pretty big drops.

I really didn't think Strange and Beasts could co-exist alongside Rogue One, but I guess I was wrong...

 

[Aaron Strife]

I wonder if moana will increase on Christmas weekend or if Sing will suck the life out of it

More concerned with Sing sucking the life out of its audience by the looks of it.

 

[kswiston]

Interesting note about Han Solo, Jason Ward of MakingStarWars who is well known in the Star Wars leaks world says his contacts at Lucasfilm are telling him Han Solo is likely to shift to December 2018. So it may not end up coming in May after all.

Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?

 

[Slayven]

Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?

Read that as Mortal Instruments, and I was like, didn't they already try that

 

[gamz]

Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?

No idea. They can't go head to head. That would be stupid for both studios.

 

[CaviarMeths]

Illumination is exactly the animation studio that the world deserves after it spent over 3 billion dollars watching Ice Age movies.

 

[Lifejumper]

There is supposedly a big LucasFilm meeting in January that will decide the future of the franchise.

I think they will decide there if they will move the Han Solo prequel.

 

[Sulik2]

Hopefully it would get them to greenlight a Darth Vader movie before James Earl Jones passes.

I'm kind of shocked they haven't already, since that seems like the obvious biggest anthology film they could do. Certainly bigger than Boba Fett.

I would love to see a Vader film, but Star Wars is still mostly a family film franchise. A film of Vader murdering the last remnants of the Jedi set ten years after sith wouldn't exactly be a family friendly film.

 

[kswiston]

Read that as Mortal Instruments, and I was like, didn't they already try that

Mortal Engines was the first book in a post-apocalyptic, steampunk young adult series. Peter Jackson and Fran Walsh are writing/producing, but it's being directed by one of Jackson's second unit directors/visual effects supervisors from the Middle Earth stuff.

 

[Cheebo]

Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?

Didn't Signorney Weaver the other day say Avatar 2 may not make it out by December 2018 as well?

 

[kswiston]

Didn't Signorney Weaver the other day say Avatar 2 may not make it out by December 2018 as well?

Maybe?

That would be even more interesting though, since Ep9 is in 2019. Disney could strong arm Cameron out of the pre-Xmas slot with that. If he wanted that to be his release window, he shouldn't wait a decade between films

I think that Ep9 is still tentatively scheduled for May, but I doubt that sticks.

 

[gamz]

Maybe?

That would be even more interesting though, since Ep9 is in 2019. Disney could strong arm Cameron out of the pre-Xmas slot with that. If he wanted that to be his release window, he shouldn't wait a decade between films

I think that Ep9 is still tentatively scheduled for May, but I doubt that sticks.

They could but they also have Avatarland to promote.

 

[Cheebo]

They could but they also have Avatarland to promote.

If the choice is Star Wars or Avatar getting the prime slot it would be Star Wars. They have Star Wars Land as well. And I doubt there is a single person who thinks Avatar Land is more of a priority for Disney than Star Wars Land.

This is what Weaver said about December 2018 a few days back:

When asked about the Avatar 2 release date, however, Weaver cast doubt on its viability. “We haven’t started it, so I don’t know how realistic that date is, but I think it’s going to be very exciting,”

http://www.slashfilm.com/avatar-2-release-date-delay/

At this point Star Wars will be pretty fully locked in as THE december franchise with 2015, 2016, & 2017. I could see Disney forcing Camerons hand here and schedule Star Wars against it to get Fox to blink and shift Avatar to Summer 2019 or along those lines. They will have owned December with Star Wars for 3 years straight by 2018.