At least Star Wars will still be mediocre!
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Wkd Box Office 0101-0316 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record
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At least Star Wars will still be mediocre!
BronsonLee
Member
Matt_
World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
Bobby Roberts
Banned
American Sniper's numbers last year, beginning with its wide release on 1/16:
That was an R-rated film, too.
That was an R-rated film, too.
Here are updated versions of my charts using the official estimates. I overestimated the domestic gross by $3M, and the overseas gross by $11M this weekend. I thought that Star Wars would be at #4 worldwide as of today, but it looks like we will have to wait until tomorrow for that.
1B is still on the way ahah
43% is not a steep Sunday drop for this time of year. The only film estimating a better drop than that in the Top 10 is Hateful 8. I really doubt that the actuals go up almost $3M. It may increase a bit and have a shot at American Sniper's Jan weekend record though. BOM is trying to save face for their $106M weekend prediction
American Sniper's numbers last year, beginning with its wide release on 1/16:
That was an R-rated film, too.
Though it's an evil thought, I kinda wonder what numbers American Sniper would have done if it had come out this year, especially with how increasingly strong anti-Muslim tension have gotten. Not something Eastwood or Cooper would have intended, but that didn't really stop that from being something of a factor last year. I guess that Benghazi movie might be a case study to see what might have happened.
ryutaro's mama
Member
American Sniper's numbers last year, beginning with its wide release on 1/16:
That was an R-rated film, too.
You saw my revision, right?
I don't think it's impossible for SW to get there.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Daddy's Home is a box office success.
Star Wars lol Embarassing result, still in the red.
Star Wars lol Embarassing result, still in the red.
ryutaro's mama
Member
^ worst kind of bait post right here.
I think next weekend will be under $45M for The Force Awakens. Possibly closer to $40M. I haven't seen much since last weekend to suggest that TFA will get unusually strong holds post holidays when compared to other December films.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Is 900 million DOM in play for TFA? there's a lot coming in January, legs may be cut short.
BronsonLee
Member
That big scene when the raptors rode on the motorcycles with Pratt did the trick
Bobby Roberts
Banned
You think it's gonna start dropping 50% weekend-to-weekend here on out?
What would that look like plotted out on your chart?
ryutaro's mama
Member
Yeah but if you look at Murican Sniper, it had a nice 3 weekends in February where it was basically flat before dropping significantly again. I could see SW getting a scenario like that where the drop holds somewhat like that.
You think it will just continue to drop, in line with a standard blockbuster? I had that thought too but i think we will know a lot more in 2 weeks time, obviously. The first weekend after the return to work/school and the next weekend after that.
My final position is, for the record is, $1B is not impossible but it is improbable.
Matt_
World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
900M is pretty much a certainty at this point I think
Would have to have atrocious legs to miss that
Sigh I guess.
freenudemacusers
Member
The better your film is, the more money it makes.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
legit made less money domestically/WW than the original boring ass Dinosaur (2000) unadjusted
Even in a year where a dinosaur movie made like a more money than God
I agree. It still made 90 million this weekend. That's a ton.
No, just next weekend. Friday was inflated by $13-15M over a normal Winter Friday given the Saturday and Sunday results. $45M next weekend would be a high 30s drop if you take $15M of this weekend to account for NYD on Friday.
I think the drops will be in that 35-40% range for the next few weeks. Maybe a bit better on the Jan 15th weekend unless both openers blow up.
All ticket stubs can be used for entrance to the real jurassic park. Just got to wait for Science.
ryutaro's mama
Member
What makes you think it will do "another 100 mill plus" next week, especially with families returning to work/school?
Most movies lose what , like 45% or so per week (when they gross over 50 million) ?
So just based on weekends , star wars has I think I good 6 weeks of interest in north america , that would mean next weekend they make around 40 million which might mean a slower drop off afterwards as people finally get in there 2nd,3rd or 12th viewing.
40-35-30-25-20-15 after 6 weekends. Then I think another 4 weeks after that we'll see 9-6-4-3 and finally the remaining weekends after that (maybe another 6 weeks , counting cheap theaters) might see 10 million total. 197 million by the middle of march.
That's to say nothing of the potential gross during monday through thursday which has been going quite well for star wars. Following the same scheme - 30-25-20-15-10-5 for 6 weeks starting now and then 5-3-2-1 for the 4 weeks after that with the last 6 weeks counting into that 10 million. About 105 million by the middle of march.
That gives us just a little over 300 million. Which means it will have just barely cracked a billion dollars domestic by the time April rolls around.
Then you've got world wide , it seems to be pretty close to matching domestic and that's without China so I think it's safe to say we can add at least 300 million world wide with current release territories and then add a minimum of 200 million more from China alone.
That would put us at 1.5 billion (current) + 800 million (gross by end of April) for a total of 2.3 billion world wide. Enough for second place but I just don't see it passing Avatar. Once march rolls around there is some actual competition coming out in the form of Batman VS Superman and I mean the bluray is supposed to be out in April so....
So just based on weekends , star wars has I think I good 6 weeks of interest in north america , that would mean next weekend they make around 40 million which might mean a slower drop off afterwards as people finally get in there 2nd,3rd or 12th viewing.
40-35-30-25-20-15 after 6 weekends. Then I think another 4 weeks after that we'll see 9-6-4-3 and finally the remaining weekends after that (maybe another 6 weeks , counting cheap theaters) might see 10 million total. 197 million by the middle of march.
That's to say nothing of the potential gross during monday through thursday which has been going quite well for star wars. Following the same scheme - 30-25-20-15-10-5 for 6 weeks starting now and then 5-3-2-1 for the 4 weeks after that with the last 6 weeks counting into that 10 million. About 105 million by the middle of march.
That gives us just a little over 300 million. Which means it will have just barely cracked a billion dollars domestic by the time April rolls around.
Then you've got world wide , it seems to be pretty close to matching domestic and that's without China so I think it's safe to say we can add at least 300 million world wide with current release territories and then add a minimum of 200 million more from China alone.
That would put us at 1.5 billion (current) + 800 million (gross by end of April) for a total of 2.3 billion world wide. Enough for second place but I just don't see it passing Avatar. Once march rolls around there is some actual competition coming out in the form of Batman VS Superman and I mean the bluray is supposed to be out in April so....
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Blu-ray rumored to drop in June now, with a re-release of the film in Easter.
Still not sure how solid that rumor is, though.
Still not sure how solid that rumor is, though.
facetheslayer92
Member
Avatar did over 2 billion at the foreign box office. TFA is at 770 million. Unless the foreign box office can pull in 1.8 billion-1.9 billion assuming domestic ends up at 900-950 million, there is no way TFA can beat Avatar for all time
SuperEpicMan
Banned
Fastest to $100m, $200m, $300m, $400m, $500m, $600m, $700m US Box Office
Really impressive since Star Wars is already up to around $740m already after 16 days. It took Avatar 253 days to get $750m US dom.
Really impressive since Star Wars is already up to around $740m already after 16 days. It took Avatar 253 days to get $750m US dom.
This coming week (Jan 04 - Jan 10) will be well under $100M total. Avatar managed $78M for the entire week, and we're at the point where Avatar's third Sunday was only ~$2M lower than TFA's estimated third Sunday. Last weekend, the Sunday difference between the two was close to $19M.
It's time to start adjusting expectations back down to reality. Star Wars has burnt off $740M in business. Almost the entire gross of Avatar in 17 days. It still has a good deal of gas in the tank, and will cross $900M without blinking, but we aren't going to see 20% holds going forward. If it crosses $1B domestic, it will crawl to it like Spectre is crawling to $200M.
JW x 1.50 going forward gets it to $968M.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Deadpool is out on February 12th.
How many times can they release the same film?
The same people who thought it was a good idea to make Transcendence.
Seriously, same production companies involved.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Lots
This would only be the first re-release.
To be fair, expectations were always realistic. Reality itself was the one telling us to fuck off.
True Savior
Member
No matter how crazy SW is in USA , boxoffice wise the story of this year has to be Furious 7 gross in the world (outside USA). Fucking bonkers.
My uneducated guess.
I'm figuring maybe 10-15 per day on Monday through Thursday. Then let's say it actually drops in the ballpark of 50% so maybe 40-50 mil. So it could have a seven day gross between 80-110 , as high as 830-840 domestic....maybe.ryutaro's mama
Member
Easter 2016?
Huh?
Huh?
I remember arguing with someone many months ago that Star Wars could do $500M by the end of this weekend. Holiday legs are the best legs afterall. Of course, I think I was expecting like $160-170M opening weekend back then, not just shy of $250M. No one who actually followed these things was guessing $740M in 17 days back in April.
EDIT: Also, Easter is at the end of March this year, so it would probably be a re-expansion, not an actual re-release. Star Wars will still be in theatres in 12 weeks. Maybe 500-750 venues by then, but it will still be earning.
LFMartins86
Member
The next one will have an huge drop, Paul Walker's death brought many people to the cinema who barely watched the previous movies.
My uneducated guess.
Same Monday drop as Avatar tomorrow will give you a $9M Monday. Avatar's Monday holds were as good or better in previous weeks so that is probably the high end. The weekday gross this week will be a lot closer to $30M than your $40-60M.
Hateful 8 cost much less than I thought it would, which means it's probably going to make some money.
I honestly still don't get it.
I honestly still don't get it.
BotoxAgent
Member
God I hope Michael bays upcoming Benghazi movie bombs hard. I get the feeling it will do pretty good among the ignorant crowd.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Yeah, totally true if we view F7 in a vacuum and don't incorporate the increases the franchise saw with Fast Five and Furious 6.
But sure, just take the armchair approach assign someone's death as the reason for it doing well...just like people tried doing with TDK.
sigh...
FullMetalx117
Member
I see frozen style drops for TFA. I can see it get to 1B+ domestic by March.
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