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Wkd Box Office 01•01-03•16 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record

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Ridley327

Member
He was well liked already, and it was a massive tragedy for such a young guy to pass like that. Especially considering by all accounts he was a good dude.

Also I believe he was very popular with the female demo in Asia?

Yeah, there was at least one poster who lives over there that mentioned there was a massive outpouring of grief when Paul died. The dude was handsome and a really rad person that came off as being very genuine, no matter what language you spoke.
 

kswiston

Member
My best guess for Star Wars next week (including 2 days in China)

NOTE: The dotted portion of the red line is a my projection for TFA's next week. Actual gross will probably vary by up to $30M or so in either direction. Maybe more if China's gross is out of left field (extremely high or low compared to expectations). It's still too early to tell.

Intgross-proj.png



WWgross-proj.png
 

wachie

Member
TFA with Hobbit 1 legs from here on - 1.1B
TFA with Hobbit 2 legs from here on - 1.01B
TFA with Hobbit 3 legs from here on - 918M

Personally I think it'll do 950M+ and fall awfully short (960-980M) of the billion dollar mark. We can then expect a re-release with added scenes or some other gimmick before Ep8.
 

John Dunbar

correct about everything
has anyone counted what star war's international gross would look like if adjusted to the dollar's 2009 value? i imagine star wars fans are just petty enough to go down that route. but in all fairness, the dollar is a lot stronger now.
 
It's a movie that few people loved, but everyone felt they had to see it. The marketing department did an amazing job selling the 3D as game changing.
A movie that few people loved, but likely had the most repeat theatre viewings of any film this millennium.

People must be masochists.
 

Raylan

Banned
Avatar had freakishly long legs. It even jumped several weeks rather than dropping. It'll be hard for SW to keep it going that long but hopefully it does because Avatar was shit.
"Shit"? Well at least it wasn't as shit as TFA then. I love the Avatar hate. Especially now because TFA won't ever touch it's record worldwide. But hey, "domestic record" is something, I guess :)
 

BumRush

Member
Maybe this is a dumb question but is there a financial reason for not re-releasing a film of this size? Throw a couple of extra scenes in it and bam, couple hundred million worldwide.
 
I love the Avatar hate.

What a weird sentence

Maybe this is a dumb question but is there a financial reason for not re-releasing a film of this size? Throw a couple of extra scenes in it and bam, couple hundred million worldwide.

I don't think it's as easy as all that, though. Abrams has never done a Special Edition version of any of his movies before. This seems to be the version he wanted out. And then Lucasfilm's still gotta find a spot on the schedule that's good for such a Special Edition, should Abrams agree to do one.

basically, is it worth the 5 mil or so to put stuff back in (or maybe even more depending how FX heavy any scenes would be) and whatever extra costs for the distribution again?
 
The only thing that Star Wars tfa has over avatar is a faaar better cast


James Cameron really scraped the bottom of the barrel with the dodgeball guy and worthington. As opposed to all the killer choices in Star Wars, thus the latter also have a lot more charisma too
 

riotous

Banned
I don't know what people don't "get" about Avatar.. 3D was new (again) and Avatar used the tech brilliantly.

That caused the movie to be available in theaters at high ticket prices for a longtime. That's going to be difficult for anyone to repeat since 3D is no longer new, every movie has it (which gives theaters less reason to dedicate screens for as long), and 3D is like the red headed stepchild of tech now.. everyone loves to hate on it.
 

kswiston

Member
Regarding the Avatar sequel, Im not so sure 3d will be viewed as played out. It seems like people are still willing to turn out for films that actually use 3d properly like Gravity. I think it will see a substantial drop over the first film (especially domestic) but I wouldnt rule out ot hitting $2b due to a lack of 3d being novel. 3d done right is still rare.
 

legend166

Member
None of these worldwide totals take into account exchange rate, right? When it's reported, everything is just converted into USD as per the current exchange rate?

If that's the case, nothing is going to beat Avatar until the US dollar weakens (or until ticket prices increase to offset the difference).

For example, if I release a movie in Europe today and it grosses 1 billion Euro, that gets me 1.08 billion USD. If I released a movie 6 years ago that earned 1 billion Euro, I'm getting closer to 1.4 billion USD.

I know it's a pointless exercise and there's a million other variables that come along with comparing box office takings from different films released years apart. And that Star Wars probably has the advantage of higher ticket prices. And it probably still wouldn't beat Avatar taking all this into account because Avatar was ridiculous.
 

BumRush

Member
It's kind of sad that Avatar is at the top of the list. That movie was the definition of mediocre.

While not the greatest film of all time, it was an extremely memorable theatre experience (first time 3D truly blew me away). I could care less if it was on top or not, I'm happy it was made.
 
While not the greatest film of all time, it was an extremely memorable theatre experience (first time 3D truly blew me away). I could care less if it was on top or not, I'm happy it was made.

The idea that only the greatest films ever made "deserve" the box-office crown is weird, and it seems weird how quickly people arrive at that conclusion, considering what many people consider some of the best films they've seen, many of which didn't make all that much money at all.

Somewhere, they recognize that quality and earnings aren't all that tightly tied together, but that doesn't seem to present itself all that often when they wander into a box-office conversation.
 

wachie

Member
I expect it to crack $2b worldwide. I don't know beyond that.
There is a big difference between 2B and 2.4B.

Realistically a 2009 2.8B USD WW gross is like 2.4B USD WW gross today. If we expect a decrease in domestic and expect the chinese gross to make up that difference then 2B would still mean a decrease in the overseas market, even with the stronger dollar.

I hope you got the point.
 
Yeah, I still feel that ALIENS is his best film, but it's hard to argue that Titanic isn't probably the best example of "JAMES CAMERON" that exists.

Although Avatar is an amazing, 3D look at the man's filmmaking/fantastical kinks & storytelling fetishes, blown up and set free.
 

BumRush

Member
The idea that only the greatest films ever made "deserve" the box-office crown is weird, and it seems weird how quickly people arrive at that conclusion, considering what many people consider some of the best films they've seen, many of which didn't make all that much money at all.

Somewhere, they recognize that quality and earnings aren't all that tightly tied together, but that doesn't seem to present itself all that often when they wander into a box-office conversation.

Yup, well said.
 
Yeah, I still feel that ALIENS is his best film, but it's hard to argue that Titanic isn't probably the best example of "JAMES CAMERON" that exists.

Although Avatar is an amazing, 3D look at the man's filmmaking/fantastical kinks & storytelling fetishes, blown up and set free.

Rgb5t2o.gif
 
There is a big difference between 2B and 2.4B.

Realistically a 2009 2.8B USD WW gross is like 2.4B USD WW gross today. If we expect a decrease in domestic and expect the chinese gross to make up that difference then 2B would still mean a decrease in the overseas market, even with the stronger dollar.

I hope you got the point.
Uh huh.

All I said is I expect it to crack $2b. I didn't give an exact figure because trying to determine the exact box office with the Cameron wild card in play is a foolish endeavour.
 

Branduil

Member
Aliens and T2 are both quite good but they also contain the germs of Cameron's cartoon character writing tropes which become fully grown in his later films. Also I don't like Cameron turning xenomorphs into bugs but that doesn't really have anything to do with the film itself.

Terminator is still his purest film.
 
Terminator 1 exists tho

Magnum Opus doesn't necessarily mean it's the best thing an artist does. Just the biggest and widely percieved to be the most important.

My best guess for Star Wars next week (including 2 days in China)

NOTE: The dotted portion of the red line is a my projection for TFA's next week. Actual gross will probably vary by up to $30M or so in either direction. Maybe more if China's gross is out of left field (extremely high or low compared to expectations). It's still too early to tell.

Intgross-proj.png



WWgross-proj.png

Thanks for this K-Swiss.
 
Aliens is Cameron's best script.
The Abyss has Cameron's strongest characters.
Titanic features Cameron's strongest directing.
T2 has Cameron's best action.
True Lies sees Cameron's best Paxton.
Avatar is Cameron at his most ambitious.
T1 is Cameron's most concentrated, laser-focused film that has the best atmosphere of any of them.
 

Ridley327

Member
Aliens is Cameron's best script.
The Abyss has Cameron's strongest characters.
Titanic features Cameron's strongest directing.
T2 has Cameron's best action.
True Lies sees Cameron's best Paxton.
Avatar is Cameron at his most ambitious.
T1 is Cameron's most concentrated, laser-focused film that has the best atmosphere of any of them.

I'm not sure if you intended for this to be a backhanded compliment, but boy oh boy, does it read like one.
 
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