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[Bobby Roberts]

Maleficient's fantastic run went so under the radar people aren't even going to list it as a surprise of the summer.

I don't know if it was a surprise, though. I think most expected it to do pretty well.

 

[Kusagari]

I don't know if it was a surprise, though. I think most expected it to do pretty well.

You must not have seen the NeoGAF thread on predicting the "bomb of the summer."

Even then I don't think many were predicting it to outgross Oz.

 

[pieatorium]

You must not have seen the NeoGAF thread on predicting the "bomb of the summer."

People were also predicting the film that will be the highest grossing film of the summer would be the biggest bomb.


It's definitely a surprise to be doing as well as it has but the speculation from a few gaffers isn't the best place to look for things like this.


per boxoffice.com's long term tracking (about 2 months before release of all these films)

Maleficent 191million
Guardians 187million
Turtles 91million

 

[Bobby Roberts]

You must not have seen the NeoGAF thread on predicting the "bomb of the summer."

No, I saw that thread.

Inside it, a lot of people proved you don't have to know what you're talking about to post on the internet

 

[kswiston]

No, I saw that thread.

Inside it, a lot of people proved you don't have to know what you're talking about to post on the internet

I think I mentioned have it about 5 times now, but that thread was made after we already had early Friday numbers for Maleficent. It's one thing to get a prediction wrong, but to declare that a film will bomb when early weekend numbers were already pointing to a $60-70M weekend is pretty foolish.

Hell, I said as much in the thread and we still had 5-10 posters declaring it the bomb of the summer after I posted.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

How bad was Megan Fox in it? Is it not bad enough that I may be able to ignore her?

A mannequin with a speaker in its mouth could've done just as well as Fox did. Her inability to act and the previously mentioned other comments she's just distracting due to what she's done to her face and how off she appears. She seems just as dead on the outside now as she is on the inside. I couldn't tune it out.

Other than that, movie was better than expected.

 

[kswiston]

Weekend Studio Estimates:

1) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $28.4M (-57%) - $118M total
2) Guardians of the Galaxy - $24.7M (-41%) - $222M total
3) Let's be Cops - $17.7M - $26M total
4) The Expendables 3 - $16.2M
5) The Giver - $12.8M
6) Into The Storm - $7.7M - $31M total
7) The 100 Foot Journey - $7.1M - $24M total
8) Lucy - $5.1M - $108M total

- The Drop for TMNT wasn't that bad. $175M+ domestic should happen with those numbers.
- Great hold for Guardians. Almost on par with Cap 2's third weekend, and Cap had a $3-4M boost due to good Friday



Worldwide updates:

- Guardians of the Galaxy - $419M
- Maleficent - $743M
- Neighbours - $265M

 

[kswiston]

Aquamarine will be happy. How to Train Your Dragon 2 made $26M during its first (4 day) weekend in China.

 

[Alrus]

Could GoTG pass 300m? It's been having great week days and its weekend holds are pretty great too.

And that's a pretty good hold for TMNT indeed, seems the supposedly terrible word of mouth isn't hurting the movie too much.

 

[jett]

Worldwide updates:

- Guardians of the Galaxy - $419M
- Maleficent - $743M
- Neighbours - $265M

Seems like Mahvel is gonna have to shove those sons of bitches somewhere into Avengers 2.

 

[kswiston]

Could GoTG pass 300m? It's been having great week days and its weekend holds are pretty great too.

And that's a pretty good hold for TMNT indeed, seems the supposedly terrible word of mouth isn't hurting the movie too much.

Yes.

GOTG is actually tracking pretty closely to Iron Man 1 so far, with Iron Man doing better on weekends and Guardians on week days. Iron Man will probably pull ahead going forward, but Iron Man made $95M after this point in its run. Guardians need $76M to hit the big $300M mark.

It's not a lock or anything though. $280M is basically a lock, and I'd give Guardians a 65% chance of beating Man of Steel's domestic take. Next weekend will give us a clearer picture. It needs a sub 40% drop to have a reasonable shot at $300M.

EDIT:

domestic totals for Iron Man 1

After Weekend 1 - $99M
After Weekend 2 - $178M
After Weekend 3 - $223M


domestic totals for Guardians of the Galaxy

After Weekend 1 - $94M
After Weekend 2 - $177M
After Weekend 3 - $222M