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Wkd Box Office 12•18-20•15 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m

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B

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
Vault Dweller 111 said:
So I think we can all agree that the domestic record is falling.

But for someone who doesn't know the box office that well, is it kind of doing just meh WW? We don't seem to be talking about it at all. It would be be crazy if got around a billion domestic and still didn't even beat Titanic.
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Worldwide is huge. Had China opened day and date it would have been practically guaranteed to take the international record from JW (it did take the WW record, because of the US bump)

edit - oops.. I was thinking FF7 was bigger than $1.1B. It will possibly beat that. Won't beat Titanic's $1.5B though, and "probably" won't beat Titanic's WW number either.
 
C

CrichtonKicks

Member
borghe said:
yeah.. people forget this with Avatar and Titanic. They actually WENT UP in grosses on certain weekends, or dropped less than 5% WoW on other weekends.

Legs on those didn't only mean small drops, but in some cases no drop or increases.. for TFA to hit $900M it will have to play similarly. If it keeps dropping every week, even small-ish drops (<40%), I doubt it will make it much beyond $800M if it even gets there.

If either this weekend or next is crazy small drop though (<30%), it should be pretty safe. If either are increases.. THEN $1B may be possible, though far from a safe bet.
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You are ignoring the holiday boost to weekday totals that may add $200M or more to it's total.

A decent 3.0x summer multiplier would have gotten it to $750M minimum. Early days yet but it looks like the multiplier will be even better. The Hobbit had a 3.56x multplier and still had drops of greater 40% most weekends.
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
Chamber said:
Force Awakens 2nd weekend is going to be top 10 all time brehs.
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Weekend #2 would fall at #7 with 162 million

tumblr_nzru1nSAbJ1t4k9doo1_1280.png
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
wachie said:
It's possible sure, but we're just done with this weekend so the accuracy of that is very ... as is with almost all early figures from Deadline.
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We had absolutely mind boggling holds on Sunday and Monday both waaaaaay above what anyone would of predicted.
 
B

BumRush

Member
Cheebo said:
And it is on the very low end of expectations for this, if its 125 mil many would see it as a disappointment at this rate.

140-160 mil is probably a safe expectation for this weekend.
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Jesus.

Edit: Disney with 4 of the 5 biggest openings of all time, all within the last 3 years. Incredible.
 
M

Miles X

Member
borghe said:
Worldwide is huge. Had China opened day and date it would have been practically guaranteed to take the international record from JW (it did take the WW record, because of the US bump)

edit - oops.. I was thinking FF7 was bigger than $1.1B. It will possibly beat that. Won't beat Titanic's $1.5B though, and "probably" won't beat Titanic's WW number either.
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I mean China will still factor into the final numbers anyway surely?
 
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Bobby Roberts

Banned
So, wait, even if the film tops out at 1bil international money, it could still pass Titanic worldwide depending on how ridiculously massive the domestic earnings get?

then again, based on the markets still left to open, and the reception in the markets that have opened, is 1 bil international even on the table?
 
K

kswiston

Member
I still think being cautious about the weekend is the best policy until we get closer to there.

The Dark Knight's first Monday was bigger than its second Friday for instance. I don't think that will be the case here necessarily (due to Christmas, which could end up being a $45-50M day), but the it's definitely possible that Star Wars' weekdays this week will be comparable in size to its weekend days this weekend.

Bobby Roberts said:
So, wait, even if the film tops out at 1bil international money, it could still pass Titanic worldwide depending on how ridiculously massive the domestic earnings get?

then again, based on the markets still left to open, and the reception in the markets that have opened, is 1 bil international even on the table?
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Titanic is like $2.19B, so it will have to do better than $1B international unless you are predicting close to $1.2B domestic.
 
L

LevelNth

Banned
Here's a question: if TFA continues to do this well, and Rogue One does really well next year (obviously it won't do the same but comparatively speaking), do you move VIII to December of 2017 instead of the planned May release?
 
K

kswiston

Member
Vault Dweller 111 said:
The original Star Wars made $1.5 billion domestic when adjusted for inflation. We sure do love Star Wars around here.
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The original film's initial run in the 12 months following its release adjusts to about $800M domestic. The Force Awakens will actually beat that.

Granted 3D and IMAX surcharges will mean that its attendance will still fall short.

LevelNth said:
Here's a question: if TFA continues to do this well, and Rogue One does really well next year (obviously it won't do the same but comparatively speaking), do you move VIII to December of 2017 instead of the planned May release?
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I think it will be too late to change the date by the time we have info on Rogue One. An extremely large worldwide release like this takes a lot of time. There are hundreds (if not thousands) of co-marketing deals to work out ahead of time.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
kswiston said:
Titanic is like $2.19B, so it will have to do better than $1B international unless you are predicting close to $1.2B domestic.
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I'm wondering if the domestic multiplier we were looking at (which was still sorta nuts, something around 2.7-3.1, right?) is off by like... 2.

Like, if this thing has The Phantom Menace's domestic multiplier (6x, right?), that's a 1.6 billion domestic haul.

Which is fucking ridiculous/unfathomable, I know. But even if it gets closer to 3.5-4, then we're looking at around a billion domestic.

But absolutely we need way more than just the one weekday to get a good idea of what kind of legs this thing really has. This isn't even a leg. This is like a flash of ankle. Nobody knows how high up the stems actually go yet.

But do you think 1bil international is possibly still on the table, though?
 
M

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
I wonder which will do better of the big spin offs we're getting next year, Rogue One or Fantastic Beasts
And will either manage to take the spin off crown from Minions
 
S

Sulik2

Member
LevelNth said:
Here's a question: if TFA continues to do this well, and Rogue One does really well next year (obviously it won't do the same but comparatively speaking), do you move VIII to December of 2017 instead of the planned May release?
Click to expand...

I don't think you do. All you need is a winter storm from a normal winter and it messes up your open gross. What they should do is move Episode VIII from May to august so they can have an uncontested end of summer into September run like Guardians of the Galaxy had.

Matt_ said:
I wonder which will do better of the big spin offs we're getting next year, Rogue One or Fantastic Beasts
And will either manage to take the spin off crown from Minions
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Rogue One. Fantastic Beasts has a pretty good chance to flop, no Harry in it.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
I'm wondering if the domestic multiplier we were looking at (which was still sorta nuts, something around 2.7-3.1, right?) is off by like... 2.

Like, if this thing has The Phantom Menace's domestic multiplier (6x, right?), that's a 1.6 billion domestic haul.

Which is fucking ridiculous/unfathomable, I know. But even if it gets closer to 3.5-4, then we're looking at around a billion domestic.

But absolutely we need way more than just the one weekday to get a good idea of what kind of legs this thing really has. This isn't even a leg. This is like a flash of ankle. Nobody knows how high up the stems actually go yet.

But do you think 1bil international is possibly still on the table, though?
Click to expand...

I don't see why not, to use as a comparison, JW finished way higher internationally than domestically, and TFA is trending that way too when we eventually factor in China.

International debut will be around $400m
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
One thing Star Wars lacks is the power of Celine Dion and Leona Lewis; we can already decisively conclude that nothing will beat The Cameron duo. Just sayin'.

 
K

Kud Dukan

Member
kswiston said:
I think it will be too late to change the date by the time we have info on Rogue One. An extremely large worldwide release like this takes a lot of time. There are hundreds (if not thousands) of co-marketing deals to work out ahead of time.
Click to expand...

Although I agree it's unlikely, it wouldn't be unprecedented though. WB moved the release date of Half Blood Prince only three months before it was scheduled to come out, from November to the following summer.
 
L

LevelNth

Banned
Sulik2 said:
I don't think you do. All you need is a winter storm from a normal winter and it messes up your open gross. What they should do is move Episode VIII from May to august so they can have an uncontested end of summer into September run like Guardians of the Galaxy had.
Click to expand...
Isn't the negative of August releases due to the higher percentage of people away on vacation/at cottages/summer homes?
 
Pagusas

Pagusas

Elden Member
LevelNth said:
Here's a question: if TFA continues to do this well, and Rogue One does really well next year (obviously it won't do the same but comparatively speaking), do you move VIII to December of 2017 instead of the planned May release?
Click to expand...

no. you own both the summer and the winter.
 
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