can't even think to answer this until next monday.. and even then it's just a guess until China. But as of now, yes it's on the table.
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Wkd Box Office 1218-2015 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m
- Thread starter xaosslug
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I don't know, if TFA does some unfathomable number (1 billion+ domestic, Titanic+ overseas) I think Disney has to very seriously think about moving Episode VIII to December. And if Johnson wants more time, he'll have an extremely persuasive argument.
zero chance. There is no way in hell Disney is going to miss the 40th anniversary. The early previews will be on the literal 40th anniversary of ANH's release. That is publicity/marketing that you DO NOT throw away.
if there has ever been a firmer date, I've never seen it. Hence why they are already shooting.
But the question is .. who would want to live there?
I do. It's a newer built up suburb of Indianapolis and the IMAX here is really nice!
That's what I'm thinking, plus it's their strongest franchise now that can own the winter on it's own.I don't know, if TFA does some unfathomable number (1 billion+ domestic, Titanic+ overseas) I think Disney has to very seriously think about moving Episode VIII to December. And if Johnson wants more time, he'll have an extremely persuasive argument.
Leaves all the prime summer weekends open for their Marvel, Pixar and other films.
I really don't think you take the chance on another 50 degree/snowless December with Ep 8.
Rogue One for sure. Coming off VII, I think Rogue One can do 350m DOM.
I wonder which will do better of the big spin offs we're getting next year, Rogue One or Fantastic Beasts
And will either manage to take the spin off crown from Minions
Rogue One for sure. Coming off VII, I think Rogue One can do 350m DOM.
I don't know, if TFA does some unfathomable number (1 billion+ domestic, Titanic+ overseas) I think Disney has to very seriously think about moving Episode VIII to December. And if Johnson wants more time, he'll have an extremely persuasive argument.
Insert "Avatar 2 isnt actually ever happening" joke here, but moving it to December 2017 pits it head to head against Avatar 2. Fox and Disney aren't going to cannibalize each other's box office. If Avatar 2 slips, then maybe.
zero chance. There is no way in hell Disney is going to miss the 40th anniversary. The early previews will be on the literal 40th anniversary of ANH's release. That is publicity/marketing that you DO NOT throw away.
if there has ever been a firmer date, I've never seen it. Hence why they are already shooting.
This. 40th anniversary is huge and will probably be kicked off with 3D marathon tickets. TFA would have had an even higher opening in the summer.
Ahhhh, I did not realize this. You're probably right, and then it wouldn't be surprising to see IX move back to December in 2019.zero chance. There is no way in hell Disney is going to miss the 40th anniversary. The early previews will be on the literal 40th anniversary of ANH's release. That is publicity/marketing that you DO NOT throw away.
if there has ever been a firmer date, I've never seen it. Hence why they are already shooting.
Ahhhh, I did not realize this. You're probably right, and then it wouldn't be surprising to see IX move back to December in 2019.
By then Avatar 2 will finally come out, I think May is where the force is going to be
edit: dammit Solo
Ahhhh, I did not realize this. You're probably right, and then it wouldn't be surprising to see IX move back to December in 2019.
I would go so far as to say that, had the 25th fallen on ANY other day short of a weekend, disney would have adjusted Ep VIII's opening date to hit it.
People keep forgetting TFA was delayed during the script writing process. Episode 8 begins shooting in less than 3 weeks!! Delaying it won't give Johnson more time to write and plan things. The movie will wrap principal photography before the spring.
pretty sure it already started. Thought I was reading that people were already on Skellig Michael Island.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Rogue One for sure. Coming off VII, I think Rogue One can do 350m DOM.
You think people are crediting nostalgia bathing for the success of this film, wait until you get a story set directly before the opening crawl of Star Wars, based around getting the original Death Star plans.
And if there's even a WHIFF of Darth Vader showing up for the party? Forget about it.
I don't know, if TFA does some unfathomable number (1 billion+ domestic, Titanic+ overseas) I think Disney has to very seriously think about moving Episode VIII to December. And if Johnson wants more time, he'll have an extremely persuasive argument.
Problem is Avatar.
I know this isnt really the thread but 3D is the only available reserved seating, is the 3D good/bad or should I absolutely see it in 2D?
It's like every movie that wasn't built around it - just kinda there. Not offensive but adds nothing to the experience.
CrichtonKicks
Member
Problem is Avatar.
No one actually believe Avatar is coming in 2 years.
Rian Johnson did some early shooting for a few days but full on principal photography begins in Jan.pretty sure it already started. Thought I was reading that people were already on Skellig Michael Island.
So yes we have Rian Johnson directed Episode 8 footage already in the can.
There was filming there this past September that people originally assumed was VII reshoots, but turned out to be Johnson there doing the first scenes for VIII.pretty sure it already started. Thought I was reading that people were already on Skellig Michael Island.
e: Blast you Cheebo.
Problem is Avatar.
Time to re-release it.
CrichtonKicks
Member
Rian Johnson did some early shooting for a few days but full on principal photography begins in Jan.
So yes we have Rian Johnson directed Episode 8 footage already in the can.
Sooo when do we think we might see the first Ep 8 trailer? Maybe a tease with Civil War this summer or are they going to wait until closer to Christmas? I'm thinking they may keep it in the bag until Rogue One releases.
I'm wondering if the domestic multiplier we were looking at (which was still sorta nuts, something around 2.7-3.1, right?) is off by like... 2.
Like, if this thing has The Phantom Menace's domestic multiplier (6x, right?), that's a 1.6 billion domestic haul.
Which is fucking ridiculous/unfathomable, I know. But even if it gets closer to 3.5-4, then we're looking at around a billion domestic.
But absolutely we need way more than just the one weekday to get a good idea of what kind of legs this thing really has. This isn't even a leg. This is like a flash of ankle. Nobody knows how high up the stems actually go yet.
The Phantom Menace opened on Wednesday, so that sort of messes the OW multipler up. Previews also weren't really a huge thing in 1999. Only a handful of theatres got them.
Other than Avatar and Titanic, December movies sort of die after the holidays. Even the ones with good multipliers.
The Hobbit had a 3.6x multiplier. It made 21% of its gross after Jan 1st. Fellowship of the Ring was extremely leggy, making over 4x its 5 day opening (and launched the same weekend as Star Wars did). It made 44% of its gross after Jan 1st. Return of the King had a 3x multiplier on its 5-day opening. It made 28% of its gross after January first.
It's even worse if you start going with films that had poorer legs.
Even with Great legs, Star Wars is going to need to get to $700M+ by Jan 3rd to have much of a shot at $1B domestic. It's not going to play like Avatar. Honestly, I think the holidays will make these first 17 days even more frontloaded than typical for a leggy blockbuster.
Jurassic World made 23% of its gross after the first 17 days. Avengers made 26% of its gross after the first 17 days. The Dark Knight also made 26% of its gross after those first 17 days. I expect Star Wars to be in the lower end of that range. Perhaps even closer to 20%.
The fact that all of the Oscar bait films moved out of its way and now launch in early January won't help with post-holiday legs. At least with the considerable older audience going to the film.
All of that said. Maybe Star Wars will be able to brute force its way to $1B just from insane holiday grosses. If it some how hits Avatar numbers by Jan 3rd, it hits $1B with a post Jan 3rd gross in the same range as the blockbusters above even with huge Jan drops.
EDIT: Regarding international hitting $1B, are you talking with or without China? With China, I'd probably give it 80% odds of getting there. It would need really bad holds over the holidays not to. Europe was way higher than Jurassic World and that's a region where Christmas is nearly as big as it is in the US.
BattleMonkey
Member
I don't see how they can keep the merchandising going on year after year. Force Fridays and huge merch pushes to happen every year or will they be more subdued with the marketing for Rogue One?
Vault Dweller 111
Member
Sooo when do we think we might see the first Ep 8 trailer? Maybe a tease with Civil War this summer or are they going to wait until closer to Christmas? I'm thinking they may keep it in the bag until Rogue One releases.
That seems too early.
The real question is how are they going to market Episode VIII and Rogue One at the same time?
EDIT: Actually read the rest of your post. I also don't see how you wait until after Rogue One to do it. That seems way too fast.
They can hold off till Rogue One to kick it into high gear honestly. Avatar didn't start marketing till August and it released 4 months later.That seems too early.
The real question is how are they going to market Episode VIII and Rogue One at the same time?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't see how they can keep the merchandising going on year after year.
They haven't really stopped since 1978, though. It might not be the EVERYTHING IS AN EVENT type thing they did this year, but of all the things I can see Disney keeping as consistent as absolutely possible, it's the merch.
I don't see how they can keep the merchandising going on year after year. Force Fridays and huge merch pushes to happen every year or will they be more subdued with the marketing for Rogue One?
Rogue One could have fan favorites like Vader to help build the hype. But yea it'll probably be in the shadows of the Empire if you will
Star Wars has consistently been even when 7 was just a pipe dream the #2 toy brand behind Disney princess and number #1 toy brand "for boys".They haven't really stopped since 1978, though. It might not be the EVERYTHING IS AN EVENT type thing they did this year, but of all the things I can see Disney keeping as consistent as absolutely possible, it's the merch.
Star Wars was #1 boy brand in 2012 the year before we had the Disney deal (technically deal happened near the end of the year) and assumed we wouldn't ever get any new major non cartoon content. The year avengers came OT Star Wars still sold more toys.
I don't see how they can keep the merchandising going on year after year. Force Fridays and huge merch pushes to happen every year or will they be more subdued with the marketing for Rogue One?
Selling Star Wars merch is like the easiest job ever.
First teaser: Celebration 2016.Sooo when do we think we might see the first Ep 8 trailer? Maybe a tease with Civil War this summer or are they going to wait until closer to Christmas? I'm thinking they may keep it in the bag until Rogue One releases.
First trailer: Rogue One release.
Final trailer: ???
Given Guardians of the Galaxy hitting nearly $340M domestic, I don't see why Rogue One couldn't at least do the same if the quality is in the same general range as Guardians or Ep7. Rogue One has a stronger connection to the Star Wars universe than Guardians had to the MCU.
If we're talking Transformers 4 level of critical reception, than maybe not. Ep VIII launching 6 months later makes it easier to skip if it is garbage.
If we're talking Transformers 4 level of critical reception, than maybe not. Ep VIII launching 6 months later makes it easier to skip if it is garbage.
Matt_
World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
The 40th anniversary angle of 8 is vital as well. Bob Iger on earnings called has mentioned that releasing 8 on the 40th anniversary is huge for merchandising tie in and marketing reasons.
Yeah there is no way they're going to miss that, worked wonders for Skyfall
First teaser: Celebration 2016.
First trailer: Rogue One release.
Final trailer: ???
Seems kinda late for the first teaser.
Edit:Oh you're referring to Ep.8 Oops.
In the end merchandise $$$ is more important than box office $$. If releasing it on the 40th anniversary means more merchandise sales (which Bob Iger says is the case) while taking a slight hit at box office they go with what is best for the merchandise.Yeah there is no way they're going to miss that, worked wonders for Skyfall
CrichtonKicks
Member
Given Guardians of the Galaxy hitting nearly $340M domestic, I don't see why Rogue One couldn't at least do the same if the quality is in the same general range as Guardians or Ep7. Rogue One has a stronger connection to the Star Wars universe than Guardians had to the MCU.
If we're talking Transformers 4 level of critical reception, than maybe not.
I think it depends on the tone. If they really do that whole war movie thing and it doesn't fee like conventional Star Wars then I think it may undercut it a bit even if it is really well received.
Trailer shot of Darth Vader with James Earl Jones behind the voice is enough to get everyone to show up.I think it depends on the tone. If they really do that whole war movie thing and it doesn't fee like conventional Star Wars then I think it may undercut it a bit even if it is really well received.
It would be just as iconic of a trailer moment as Han in the second TFA teaser.
In retrospect that AoU vs TFA numbers thread is even more silly now.
It's always the case when something blows up.
I picked Star Wars for domestic and worldwide back in April though. Lots of people did. The real miss that was common in that and other threads was the belief that December would hinder the opening. At least before the ticket presales went live and the internet broke.
Vault Dweller 111
Member
People discounting Rogue One big time. There is a reason that they chose this particular story line. And it's not because it's very interesting (it really isn't) getting Vader on screen again was a very big deal to them.
By the time we get to the third or fourth spin-off film maybe fatigue will set in. But Rogue One will appeal to people way more than a standard Marvel movie would.
By the time we get to the third or fourth spin-off film maybe fatigue will set in. But Rogue One will appeal to people way more than a standard Marvel movie would.
People discounting Rogue One big time. There is a reason that they chose this particular story line. And it's not because it's very interesting (it really isn't) getting Vader on screen again was a very big deal to them.
By the time we get to the third or fourth spin-off film maybe fatigue will set in. But Rogue One will appeal to people way more than a standard Marvel movie would.
Well Guardians is second highest grossing Marvel film after Iron Man 3. Not like we are talking about Ant Man.
People discounting Rogue One big time. There is a reason that they chose this particular story line. And it's not because it's very interesting (it really isn't) getting Vader on screen again was a very big deal to them.
By the time we get to the third or fourth spin-off film maybe fatigue will set in. But Rogue One will appeal to people way more than a standard Marvel movie would.
350m DOM is above every MCU movie other than both Avengers and Iron Man 3 and I consider that a conservative guess. Darth Vader focused marketing and good WOM will have that movie going over 400 I think.
I think fatigue is overrated, and it will take a long, long time. Fatigue is barely affecting (if at all) the MCU still, and it has had, what, 12 movies total now? Not to mention comic book movies were still a thing beforehand.People discounting Rogue One big time. There is a reason that they chose this particular story line. And it's not because it's very interesting (it really isn't) getting Vader on screen again was a very big deal to them.
By the time we get to the third or fourth spin-off film maybe fatigue will set in. But Rogue One will appeal to people way more than a standard Marvel movie would.
Star Wars hasn't had a film in over a decade, and to many, the prequels shouldn't even really count.
In retrospect that AoU vs TFA numbers thread is even more silly now.
Indeed. Marvel/Avengers (especially without Spidey) just doesn't compete with the Star Wars brand. If anything the people who are fans of Marvel are also fans of SW
Vault Dweller 111
Member
Triple green's quoted, all in a row. booyah.
I don't think any of us are even arguing, but yea. Rogue One will make a killing.
I don't think any of us are even arguing, but yea. Rogue One will make a killing.
ProudCanuck
Banned
For context Epsiode 8 will be done filming before Captain America Civil War is even out.
What?! they just started filming in September
Someone posted this on another forum for perspective
TFA's first Monday is:
1. Larger than the biggest 2nd Friday ever (TF2 - 36M)
2. Only 2 million less than Avengers 2nd Sat (the current non-opening week Sat record)
3. Is only 4M less than the first Mondays of both The Avengers and JW combined (the last two OW champs)
bananafactory
Banned
What?! they just started filming in September
Principle photography doesn't start until January I think.
But I believe the average shoot length for a blockbuster isn't more than 90 days. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong
What?! they just started filming in September
Principal photography on Episode VII only lasted 7 months. It's conceivable that Episode VIII could be in the can, principal photography-wise, but the end of May 2016.
It's the pre and post production that takes a bitch of a time, not the actual shooting.
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