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Wkd Box Office 12•18-20•15 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m

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Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Tue: 40
Wed: 37
Thu: 24
Fri: 50
Sat: 57
Sun: 48
Click to expand...
So Tuesday was lower than I thought, but Wed saw an increase, which I certainly did not expect. It basically mirrored Avatar without having the aide of another studio release... just pure insanity. Updated projections:

Thu: 25.5
Fri: 55
Sat: 63
Sun: 54

$172M weekend, $561M 10 day total.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Charles Foster Kane said:
BOM is projecting 178.5M for the weekend.

That sounds like too much.
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They're apparently using their Avatar model from earlier in the week, and tacking on an extra 3 mil, likely due to the pre-orders on Christmas day?

Maybe?

I'm leaving the measuring stick at anything slightly north of 160, personally. If it hits 175, I don't know that I'll be SURPRISED, but I'm not all like "yeah, sure, let's expect 175."

But yeah, if it gets near 175, I believe it's second weekend would rank 5th on the all time opening weekends chart.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Charles Foster Kane said:
BOM is projecting 178.5M for the weekend.

That sounds like too much.
Click to expand...

Its averaging 40 million per day, if it did its week day numbers over the weekend it would make 120 million. I honestly expect this to do a little less than the performance it did on its first weekend minus the insane thursday number. 150 million minimum. Just depends on if its low 50's or high 50's per day.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
If it ACTUALLY hits 175-180 in its 2nd weekend, I'm feeling like my pie-in-the-sky Three Weekends Over 100 Mil has a legitimate shot.

On the chance it DOES go down, I don't even get to say "I called it," either, because I threw it out there like "No way this happens, but lets fuck around with the goofiest what-if for a sec"
 
gimmmick

gimmmick

Member
This movie keeps on making money. With all the kiddies out of school for winter break, I would not be surprised if it doesn't reach 500 mil domestic by then end of this week. I wanted to grab tickets for christmas and majority of all the showings are sold out :|
 
T

Toxi

Banned
BronsonLee said:
Does Avatar even have merch?
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For some reason, the merch was really botched for the movie (probably because nobody was expecting it to be that successful). There was a video game, some really crappy action figures of a few main characters, and not much else. No or few toys of all the animals and vehicles.
 
B

Branduil

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
If it ACTUALLY hits 175-180 in its 2nd weekend, I'm feeling like my pie-in-the-sky Three Weekends Over 100 Mil has a legitimate shot.

On the chance it DOES go down, I don't even get to say "I called it," either, because I threw it out there like "No way this happens, but lets fuck around with the goofiest what-if for a sec"
Click to expand...

If it continues following the Avatar model it's third weekend would be like $160 million LOL.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
boxoffice.com predicts 163M weekend which is inline with Deadline. Three straight 100M weekends is happening.

Bobby was right.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
$100M third weekend off a $175M fourth weekend is a lot more than reasonable, it's a low ball. That would be a steeper decline than Sherlock Holmes had from its OW to the new year's weekend, so there's not much of a chance of that happening here. IMO, anything above $160M locks up a $100M third weekend, and also makes it exceedingly likely Star Wars will have topped Avatar by Jan 3rd.
 
D

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
Dudes, if it hits $160+ and then $80-$100 week followed with $100+ third...

Avatar domestic will fall first week into the new year
 
B

Branduil

Member
Charles Foster Kane said:
It will probably stop following Avatar's model soon. At these numbers following that model seems unlikely.
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Well, you have to assume there's a saturation limit which no movie can surpass. At some point so many people have seen a movie(or seen it multiple times) that the well dries up. I guess we'll find out what that limit is. How much would TFA have to make to surpass Titanic in first-run tickets sold?
 
C

Charles Foster Kane

Rosebud
Branduil said:
Well, you have to assume there's a saturation limit which no movie can surpass. At some point so many people have seen a movie(or seen it multiple times) that the well dries up. I guess we'll find out what that limit is. How much would TFA have to make to surpass Titanic in first-run tickets sold?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure (since it got re-released), but probably over a billion.
 
G

G-Fex

Member
I swear it's like gaf is the only fucking place that remembers avatar and constantly brings it up while I hear zero of it anywhere else.
 
B

Branduil

Member
G-Fex said:
I swear it's like gaf is the only fucking place that remembers avatar and constantly brings it up while I hear zero of it anywhere else.
Click to expand...

Well, the box office thread is the one place where it makes sense to talk about it. Especially when it's domestic record is about to be surpassed.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Branduil said:
Well, you have to assume there's a saturation limit which no movie can surpass. At some point so many people have seen a movie(or seen it multiple times) that the well dries up. I guess we'll find out what that limit is. How much would TFA have to make to surpass Titanic in first-run tickets sold?
Click to expand...
Titanic sold roughly 120 million tickets during its first run. Trying to figure out the minutiae of adjusted grosses is the kind of hole one can disappear into forever, what with the 3D, IMAX, RPX, and other factors. A purely tales-from-my-ass estimate would be $1.2 Billion, but I would guess that if (when) TFA grosses over a billion, we'll start to get industry articles how close it is to selling more tickets than Titanic.
 
K

Kuros

Member
G-Fex said:
I swear it's like gaf is the only fucking place that remembers avatar and constantly brings it up while I hear zero of it anywhere else.
Click to expand...

In fairness GAF is home to the Internet's biggest Cameron fan boy. Also this is the box office thread so its gonna get brought up as its what's being chased.
 
W

wachie

Member
DopeyFish said:
Dudes, if it hits $160+ and then $80-$100 week followed with $100+ third...

Avatar domestic will fall first week into the new year
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Assuming its at 390M by the end of today.

390M (current tally) + 170M (second weekend) + 100M (second weekdays) + 100M (third weekend) = 760M

Charles Foster Kane said:
Actually Sculli hasn't participated that much. There's been tons of Avatar talk.
Click to expand...
Yes, why would anyone participate if you kept trumpeting that only Cameron can beat himself. I don't see any non-salty way for him to participate.
 
F

Freeza Under The Shower

Member
Charles Foster Kane said:
Actually Sculli hasn't participated that much. There's been tons of Avatar talk.
Click to expand...

no nostalgia disorder to go with it though. The first one was mostly the trailblazing 3D, but that trick won't work twice. Furthermore, viewers may have already gotten tired of '3D' by now. Speaking of which, due to the ticket being 1/3 more than 2D showings (somehow this is also the same between US and EU, which means it's not costs based), the profits may be suddenly higher, but the total number of tickets purchased may be lower. Which may be worth considering when comparing Boxoffice numbers between recent movies and their progenitors.

Btw, since this weekend is Christmas aka 'so boring I might as well kill myself' day(s), I wouldn't be surprised if TFA got a bumb up from that. Seriously, I hate Christmas just for how boring it is (and it being religious bullshit of course).
 
C

Charles Foster Kane

Rosebud
This thread sometimes has the weirdest clashes.

Freeza Under The Shower said:
no nostalgia disorder to go with it though. The first one was mostly the trailblazing 3D, but that trick won't work twice. Furthermore, viewers may have already gotten tired of '3D' by now. Speaking of which, due to the ticket being 1/3 more than 2D showings (somehow this is also the same between US and EU, which means it's not costs based), the profits may be suddenly higher, but the total number of tickets purchased may be lower. Which may be worth considering when comparing Boxoffice numbers between recent movies and their progenitors.

Btw, since this weekend is Christmas aka 'so boring I might as well kill myself' day(s), I wouldn't be surprised if TFA got a bumb up from that. Seriously, I hate Christmas just for how boring it is (and it being religious bullshit of course).
Click to expand...

I get what you're saying, but the quote confuses me.
 
W

wachie

Member
SCULLIBUNDO said:
Did somebody say JOHN CARTER?

And hey, look. Wachie is all over my dick again for some reason. Dude is obsessed with me.
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What's with you and dicks? I'm not fully aware of the history but I've seen some people joking about you giving HJ to Cameron, is that the reason? Honestly fill me in.

The only thing I'm obsessed is Box office gaf and sales gaf on the gaming side.
 
P

Prompto

Banned
This thread:
so_uncivilized
 
K

kswiston

Member
I wouldn't get too hung up on this film following Avatar exactly over the next few days. It's definitely looking a lot closer than expected from the weekdays, but Avatars Wednesday was over its Monday. Star Wars is down 5%. It's not really the same drops.

$160m will probably happen this weekend though. Should put the domestic total at around 550m by Sunday,
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
BronsonLee said:
The order goes:
Politics
Movies
Tipping
Consoles
Everything Else
Click to expand...

Nah, you gotta wedge "My God-given right to loli fetish" in there somewhere.

Probably right above tipping.

kswiston said:
I wouldn't get too hung up on this film following Avatar exactly over the next few days. It's definitely looking a lot closer than expected from the weekdays, but Avatars Wednesday was over its Monday. Star Wars is down 5%. It's not really the same drops.

$160m will probably happen this weekend though. Should put the domestic total at around 550m by Sunday,
Click to expand...

Still weird to say.
 
G

guek

Banned
kswiston said:
I wouldn't get too hung up on this film following Avatar exactly over the next few days. It's definitely looking a lot closer than expected from the weekdays, but Avatars Wednesday was over its Monday. Star Wars is down 5%. It's not really the same drops.

$160m will probably happen this weekend though. Should put the domestic total at around 550m by Sunday,
Click to expand...

I can't remember the exact number but I'm pretty sure $160M is bigger than what I predicted for the OW. Oh what a fool I've been.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
guek said:
I can't remember the exact number but I'm pretty sure $160M is bigger than what I predicted for the OW. Oh what a fool I've been.
Click to expand...

I think I'm around here somewhere saying 180-190 is probably a "safe" range. I'm pretty sure I said that on Full of Sith a couple times.
 
B

Branduil

Member
guek said:
I can't remember the exact number but I'm pretty sure $160M is bigger than what I predicted for the OW. Oh what a fool I've been.
Click to expand...

It's difficult to remember this now, but $160 million would still be, like, double the previous December record... for opening weekends.
 
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