Support NeoGAF

[Bobby Roberts]

someone needs to keep you folks in line.

I can't be up at all times of the day, man!

The Force Awakens should be at 385 by the end of Christmas Eve. Mayyyyybe even 390 if shit is completely crazy (which, to be fair, it's never NOT been)

That would place it at #22 on the all-time list, just ahead of Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows 2, and just under Frozen.

It will pass Revenge of the Sith today.

 

[jett]

As of now, I don't see any box office thread beating this one for a long time. Maybe Avatar 2's. Avatar generates a lot of posts in these threads.

If Disney sticks to this 18-month turnaround timeframe we might see an ABADAH2 vs Episode IX all-out battle.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

So 38.1M wednesday.

 

[DopeyFish]

38.1 is ridiccccccccc

At this point you will be able to choose any three days from star wars first 10 days and it will most likely have broken the December OW record lol

 

[Bobby Roberts]

If Disney sticks to this 18-month turnaround timeframe we might see an ABADAH2 vs Episode IX all-out battle.

Disney sticking to schedule isn't the problem here

edit: 38 for Wednesday. Jeezus.

 

[BronsonLee]

Disney sticking to schedule isn't the problem here

At this point I think Cameron has no concept of time

 

[johnny956]

38.1 is ridiccccccccc

Yup this long weekend is going to be crazy. Last time it fell on a Friday...Avatar came out

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I mean, this movie is so nuts that it serves up crow fucking MINUTES after you place the order:

Box Office Mojo had posted an article back on Tuesday that basically used Avatar's first week as a model for The Force Awakens. .

Monday: $40.1 M (33.76% drop) / $288.1 M (actual)
Tuesday: $37.4 M (6.85% drop) / $325.4 M (actual)
——- Wed-Sun projections based on Avatar first week dailies ——-
Wednesday: $38.2 M (2.23% increase) / $363.6 M
Thursday: $25.9 M (32.19% drop) / $389.5 M
Friday: $53.6 M (107.11% increase) / $443.2 M
Saturday: $65.7 M (22.43% increase) / $508.8 M
Sunday: $56.3 M (14.24% drop) / $565.2 M ($175.6 M weekend)

I know, when I went to bed (before whatever happened in here actually happened) we were thinking 160 mil was pretty possible. This calls for 175, so I don't know about ALL that just yet, BUT: Is a 26 mil Christmas Eve solid-ish?

 

[MiamiWesker]

It went up?! wow. But a lot of movies are coming. I think concussion will do well.

 

[jett]

Disney sticking to schedule isn't the problem here

edit: 38 for Wednesday. Jeezus.

I'm already assuming Avatar 2 gets further delayed to 2018 there lol. However at this rate I think there's a higher chance of these Avatar sequels getting shelved indefinitely than they actually coming to fruition.

 

[GhaleonEB]

So that's a 2% rise from Tuesday; Avatar rose 2.2% from its first Tuesday per the chart above. The degree to which TFA is tracking Avatar's drops is uncanny.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

If Disney sticks to this 18-month turnaround timeframe we might see an ABADAH2 vs Episode IX all-out battle.

Episode 9 is summer 2019- 2 year turnaround. 18 month is only because they gave JJ a 6 month extension on TFA.

I'm already assuming Avatar 2 gets further delayed to 2018 there lol. However at this rate I think there's a higher chance of these Avatar sequels getting shelved indefinitely than they actually coming to fruition.

Honestly Avatar 2 updates always remind me of updates from poorly run Kickstarters: "Well, we have the story all mapped out, key art is done, just need to do the programming..."

 

[BronsonLee]

I mean, this movie is so nuts that it serves up crow fucking MINUTES after you place the order:

Ok that's just hilarious

It doesn't even wait that long to drop the bird

 

[jett]

Episode 9 is summer 2019- 2 year turnaround. 18 month is only because they gave JJ a 6 month extension on TFA.

2019 works for me still hah. I think with this bullshit going on right now Disney might want to stick to the Holiday season, though.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

It went up?! wow. But a lot of movies are coming. I think concussion will do well.

I've heard not great things about the film, both as a film and in terms of people's anticipation for it.

So that's a 2% rise from Tuesday; Avatar rose 2.2% from its first Tuesday per the chart above. The degree to which TFA is tracking Avatar's drops is uncanny.

But like... It can't KEEP doing that, right? It's gonna have to branch off that particular line and head in a slightly more southward direction around this weekend, right?

 

[Walker_Boh]

God, I have to work on Christmas Day. The Imax and every other theater playing Star Wars is probably going to be sold out, that will be fun to clean. When do you guys think Star Wars will leave theaters? Early April?

 

[Kuros]

2019 works for me still hah. I think with this bullshit going on right now Disney might want to stick to the Holiday season, though.

Remember that merchandise is just as important to sell as tickets. I think getting it around the ANH 40 year anniversary is more important to them. They'll take a hit on tickets to bump the merch.

 

[BronsonLee]

But like... It can't KEEP doing that, right? It's gonna have to branch off that particular line and head in a slightly more southward direction around this weekend, right?

Bobby don't do fall for this again
You know how this ends.

In MONEYYY

 

[Bobby Roberts]

God, I have to work on Christmas Day. The Imax and every other theater playing Star Wars is probably going to be sold out, that will be fun to clean. When do you guys think Star Wars will leave theaters? Early April?

That's a good question. I think the blu-ray is scheduled to drop somewhere around then?

 

[Chamber]

2nd weekend is gunning for Iron Man 3's opening weekend.

 

[Gonzalez]

If Disney sticks to this 18-month turnaround timeframe we might see an ABADAH2 vs Episode IX all-out battle.

Why do people keep bringing this up? Disney just spent a fortune on a Avatar area at Animal Kingdom. The last thing they want to do is mess with the potential Avatar franchise.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

But like... It can't KEEP doing that, right? It's gonna have to branch off that particular line and head in a slightly more southward direction around this weekend, right?

If it can reliably do $35-40M during the week I don't see how it does less than $50M+ a day over the weekend.

I wouldn't expect it to drop appreciably until after New Years.

 

[GhaleonEB]

But like... It can't KEEP doing that, right? It's gonna have to branch off that particular line and head in a slightly more southward direction around this weekend, right?

I've having major deja vu to Avatar's run, where we said things like this every day for three weeks or so and then threw in the towel. That said, the weekend will undoubtedly be lower than last weekend as Avatar had far less pent up demand. So yea we'll see a big % drop due if due to nothing but the midnight sales not being there.

The weekday hauls will crater when school starts again, as they did with Avatar, but by then it won't matter.

 

[Branduil]

You could pick any one day of TFA so far and it would break the previous single-day December record.

 

[Kuros]

Why do people keep bringing this up? Disney just spent a fortune on a Avatar area at Animal Kingdom. The last thing they want to do is mess with the potential Avatar franchise.

They won't go up against Avatar. But i don't think that's going to hit Xmas 2017 anyway.

 

[Cptkrush]

Anecdotal evidence and all that, but every showing around here is basically sold out today and tomorrow. This movie is insane

 

[Walker_Boh]

That's a good question. I think the blu-ray is scheduled to drop somewhere around then?

We've had some movies still playing when they were released on DVD. Hell, we had Mockingjay Part 1 until the end of March.

 

[Dead]

Why do people keep bringing this up? Disney just spent a fortune on a Avatar area at Animal Kingdom. The last thing they want to do is mess with the potential Avatar franchise.

Funny enough Disney was in talks with Cameron to distribute Avatar after Fox passed on it originally

 

[Matt_]

This should not be possible
Star wars is just something else, a force of nature

 

[BronsonLee]

Funny enough Disney was in talks with Cameron to distribute Avatar after Fox passed on it originally

Imagine that world, fucking hell

Disney would own everyone

 

[Leonsito]

So far this week has seen Avatar-like drops... but doing +$38M while Avatar did around $16M each day.

I expect Thursday to be around $26M.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Why do people keep bringing this up? Disney just spent a fortune on a Avatar area at Animal Kingdom. The last thing they want to do is mess with the potential Avatar franchise.

Outside of an attraction that keeps getting delayed and is only going to be a section of the least popular park, Disney has no big monetary gain from Avatar. Disney films go up against their own films all the time, and Avatar is not even one of theirs

 

[Gonzalez]

Outside of an attraction that keeps getting delayed and is only going to be a section of the least popular park, Disney has no big monetary gain from Avatar. Disney films go up against their own films all the time, and Avatar is not even one of theirs

oh it's coming, man, and very soon.

It's ridiculous to say that the mouse doesn't give a shit about this. They want, and expect it to bring big crowds to the gate when it opens, and when the sequels are released.

 

[Toth]

This should not be possible
Star wars is just something else, a force of nature

Like a force that has awakened?

.

 

[BattleMonkey]

oh it's coming, man, and very soon.

It's ridiculous to say that the mouse doesn't give a shit about this. They want, and expect it to bring big crowds to the gate when it opens, and when the sequels are released.

The movies beating the sequels at box office has no bearing on how popular or how well the attraction does at Disney. They are going to compete no matter what, and when it comes down to it, Star Wars wins out on what matters most to them for money making.

 

[BumRush]

I wonder how much merchandise star wars sells compared to avatar. 10X? 20X? More? I've never once seen someone with an avatar shirt on. At the theatre last night, about 1/3 of the people had on star wars gear. Would be interested in seeing stats (although I'm sure we never will)

 

[Vyer]

I'd imagine Avatar land is a big priority for them. Getting the property back into the public eye after so long. Try and get some of that pop culture presence back.

 

[BronsonLee]

Does Avatar even have merch?

 

[vinnygambini]

The movies beating the sequels at box office has no bearing on how popular or how well the attraction does at Disney. They are going to compete no matter what, and when it comes down to it, Star Wars wins out on what matters most to them for money making.

? Of course Disney will make more money off of the Star Wars universe as they own them outright; the point of the previous user is that it's ludicrous thinking that Disney does not care of Avatar's success as the investment of $500M at Animal Kingdom would not have come to fruition if so.

 

[M.W.]

Does Avatar even have merch?

Pandora radio

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Does Avatar even have merch?

It had a toyline that bombed, and a so-so video game.

 

[BronsonLee]

Pandora radio

Only the sickest beats for Sully and company

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I wonder how much merchandise star wars sells compared to avatar. 10X? 20X? More? I've never once seen someone with an avatar shirt on. At the theatre last night, about 1/3 of the people had on star wars gear. Would be interested in seeing stats (although I'm sure we never will)

Star Wars merch is pretty heavily documented/researched (considering it more or less kickstarted the entire concept of tie-in merch as we currently understand and are familiar with it) but I think you'd basically have to go back to around 2009/2010 to see anything on Avatar merch numbers. I know it sold some, but nothing all that remarkable, I don't think.

Part of the reason the movie was such a phenomenon is that I think people, instead of buying shirts or toys and trying to bring that experience home in some way, just went back to the theater instead.

 

[Branduil]

TBF Avatar Land was something they had planned before the unexpected Star Wars purchase. You might wonder if they wouldn't have made a "Fauna of Star Wars" land instead.

 

[BumRush]

Part of the reason the movie was such a phenomenon is that I think people, instead of buying shirts or toys and trying to bring that experience home in some way, just went back to the theater instead.

Well said...you're probably right.

 

[Gonzalez]

Does Avatar even have merch?

I'm sure there will be when 2 is released. This is FOX's first big franchise post Star Wars that they have control over merch for.

 

[BattleMonkey]

? Of course Disney will make more money off of the Star Wars universe as they own them outright; the point of the previous user is that it's ludicrous thinking that Disney does not care of Avatar's success as the investment of $500M at Animal Kingdom would not have come to fruition if so.

Again, point is that there is no avoiding competition at this point with merch and yearly movie schedules. They are not going to seek to destroy Avatar, but which IP do you think they will have the most interest in? The whole jump to Star Wars for Disney came after they already had Avatar in the works. You got two different companies interests involved here

The franchises are going to clash, there is no avoiding it.

 

[Gonzalez]

TBF Avatar Land was something they had planned before the unexpected Star Wars purchase. You might wonder if they wouldn't have made a "Fauna of Star Wars" land instead.

I'm sure buying Star Wars was in the pipeline way before they signed the deal for Avatar.

 

[Branduil]

One thing about Star Wars is there's so much more merch potential. You can buy lightsabers, you can buy costumes, etc. There's a million different aliens, background characters, ships, etc. With Avatar, the Navi are basically naked and they use stone-age weapons. Not gonna get kids very excited with that.

 

[Jarmel]

One thing about Star Wars is there's so much more merch potential. You can buy lightsabers, you can buy costumes, etc. There's a million different aliens, background characters, ships, etc. With Avatar, the Navi are basically naked and they use stone-age weapons. Not gonna get kids very excited with that.

Wait for Avatar 2 when we get the Gundam mechs.