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Wkd Box Office 12•18-20•15 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m

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Exodust

Banned
So actuals should be around $240m? Impressive to say the least.

I'm not expecting a big drop at all next week. Maybe not a another weekend of $200m but I see $150m as feasible.
 

kswiston

Member
I'm not saying that Winter turns it from 3x multiplier to 4x multiplier but I think it still ends up being a signficant boost regardless. MI: Rogue Nation had great legs for a summer film (3.51x) but still couldn't overcome Ghost Protocol in gross despite opening much higher.

Ghost Protocol made $17M in limited release (425 venues) over the course of a week before opening on a Wednesday. GP's first Saturday in full release was also Xmas Eve with is actually a bad day for movies (evidenced by the fact that it actually dropped 35% from Friday). Not exactly an apples to apples comparison.

Also, Ghost Protocol actually had worse legs post-MLK day.

EDIT: Worse not better :p
 

Not

Banned
Thanks to this thread I finally albeit accidentally caught a glimpse of SW's RT number (didn't want it influencing my perception of the movie) and i just gotta say

STAR WARS BACK BABY WE BACK YALL HOOHA
 
Wait next week we only count the weekend gross too?

Stupid question, but at what point does it just become how much the movie has made in total? People do go to the movies throughout the course of the week....
 
Further this feels like the lightest Christmas movie season in a while- it seems like everyone cleared out when Star Wars announced. There are usually quite a few high profile films opening in this period and this year there really isn't anything even on the level of Unbroken or The Imitation Game. Feels like Star Wars is likely to end up being a default choice for a lot of people.

The movies opening wide next week should really be an issue (unless Point Break surprises the hell out of everyone), and there's nothing that even looks like it might be in contention for the #1 spot until the Ride Along 2 on Jan 15 (or if Republicans travel by the busload like Christians to see the Benghazi movie). That's where the winter legs on blockbusters come from. In the summer, there's a new blockbuster coming out every 2 weeks at worst. For December, nowadays there usually isn't another high profile movie until Mid January, and even now we're just starting to get possible blockbusters/high profile movies in February (Kingsman and 50 Shades this year). Though the 2016 high profile movies all leave something to be desired (Deadpool, Zoolander 2, Gods of Egypt).
 

kswiston

Member
Wait next week we only count the weekend gross too?

Stupid question, but at what point does it just become how much the movie has made in total? People do go to the movies throughout the course of the week....

We count both. People will be tuning in to see the non-holiday non-opening Mon-Wed records (hopefully) fall. Jurassic World will probably hold onto Thursday.
 

kswiston

Member
Then I don't understand why you're asking why a thread specifically about Weekend B.O. would focus on the B.O. for that weekend.

With the mods cracking down on all the Star Wars BO threads (wish that happened from the start), I would imagine that this thread will get some use throughout the week for once.
 

HarryKS

Member
No. It doesn't really show in the Star Wars community. Here's where you're disconnecting: The presence of a tiny minority isn't the same as proper representation. When Slay says "women and black peeps will like it this time" he means "way more than the smallish number that can currently look past the fact they really don't have anyone that looks like them speaking a lot of lines in the already existing films."

He's not wrong.

To use a political comparison, there are Black and woman Republicans, too. Would you suggest that party is necessarily welcoming to those demographics in general, though?

Star Wars isn't as divisive and off-putting as the Republican party can be, of course. And the series isn't actively trying to further negative stereotypes or exclude people. But there's a very obvious difference between what the previous six movies looked like, and how this one is put together. And trying to say otherwise seems weird, especially if the whole of your reasoning isn't much more than "but we've already got black friends!"


I'm not talking about the cast. I'm talking about the fans. It's an incorrect statement to say that blacks and women don't already care for Star Wars. Look at the cons and the people who talk about it in everyday life. Star Wars is universally loved by people from all walks of life. It also gave attention to strong black actors and women. There's nothing revolutionary about the new one. It's a bit of a lazy retread based on the current climate of social awareness to state that it's more progressive now than in the past, which is not the case since it has always been.
 
I said next week.

Let's reset:

What is it you're actually asking.

I'm not talking about the cast. I'm talking about the fans.

So am I. You just quoted the entirety of the post. It's fairly clear, upon re-reading it, that I'm talking about the fanbase. The cast of the film being more diverse can (and likely will) bring in a more diverse fanbase.

The rest of your post is some rah-rah shit that doesn't accurately reflect the demographic make-up of the fandom, and the idea that there's nothing "revolutionary" about a Lucasfilm run by women, employing a multicultural story group, kicking off a Star Wars trilogy that will center on a woman and will likely feature an interracial relationship at its center is pretty much bullshit, especially when, again, your counterargument is not much more than the fandom equivalent of "we have some black friends already."

Well, okay. But you're probably gonna have a whole lot more now. And I don't know why that prospect is a bad thing, or at least bad enough for you to take issue with it.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I wonder how The Big Short will play out, it seems like perfect counterprogramming to what is being offered throughout the holidays.
 
The movies opening wide next week should really be an issue (unless Point Break surprises the hell out of everyone), and there's nothing that even looks like it might be in contention for the #1 spot until the Ride Along 2 on Jan 15 (or if Republicans travel by the busload like Christians to see the Benghazi movie). That's where the winter legs on blockbusters come from. In the summer, there's a new blockbuster coming out every 2 weeks at worst. For December, nowadays there usually isn't another high profile movie until Mid January, and even now we're just starting to get possible blockbusters/high profile movies in February (Kingsman and 50 Shades this year). Though the 2016 high profile movies all leave something to be desired (Deadpool, Zoolander 2, Gods of Egypt).

Hell, I'm not even talking "big" movies. I'm talking mid size stuff that usually still does well over the week between Christmas and New Years. Last year you had Unbroken, Into the Woods, and Night at the Museum. There isn't really any of that this year (Hateful 8 might qualify but it doesn't go wide until the following week) outside of maybe that Will Ferrell movie.
 
Hell, I'm not even talking "big" movies. I'm talking mid size stuff that usually still does well over the week between Christmas and New Years. Last year you had Unbroken, Into the Woods, and Night at the Museum. There isn't really any of that this year (Hateful 8 might qualify but it doesn't go wide until the following week) outside of maybe that Will Ferrell movie.

Ride Along 2 isn't THAT big of a movie. But yeah, the relatively larger scale family movies (outside of the Chipmunks) were probably rightfully scared of Star Wars and moved away. Which means we're stuck with Oscar hopefuls and counter-programming. And I'm not sure I see any of this year's Oscar hopefuls being breakout successes (and the ones with the best chance are waiting until January to open wide).
 

Sulik2

Member
Looking at these numbers if your Disney why would you release any of the other episodes in summer when you can rule the box office for months with a December release.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Looking at these numbers if your Disney why would you release any of the other episodes in summer when you can rule the box office for months with a December release.

Because Dec 2017, 18 and 19 is when Avatar 2 is projected to be released.

No one will want to go up against that, and Bob Iger did mention they wanted Episode VIII to be released in the usual Star Wars slot, May.
 
Looking at these numbers if your Disney why would you release any of the other episodes in summer when you can rule the box office for months with a December release.

The only answer that usually gets brought up in response to that is potential competition from Avatar.

but then again, considering this movie just proved you can do Summer numbers (well, unprecedented numbers, PERIOD) in December, it's not a given that competition from Avatar would necessarily be hurtful to either film provided there's a couple weeks between their opens, maybe?

This whole shit is kinda uncharted territory.
 

jman2050

Member
The only answer that usually gets brought up in response to that is potential competition from Avatar.

but then again, considering this movie just proved you can do Summer numbers (well, unprecedented numbers, PERIOD) in December, it's not a given that competition from Avatar would necessarily be hurtful to either film provided there's a couple weeks between their opens, maybe?

This whole shit is kinda uncharted territory.

Avatar 2 and Episode VIII opening at near the same time in December would be the biggest goddamned mess. I almost want to see it happen because what the hell kind of precedent do we have for something like that?
 

kswiston

Member
The only answer that usually gets brought up in response to that is potential competition from Avatar.

but then again, considering this movie just proved you can do Summer numbers (well, unprecedented numbers, PERIOD) in December, it's not a given that competition from Avatar would necessarily be hurtful to either film provided there's a couple weeks between their opens, maybe?

There's not really many worthwhile opening slots for a huge December film. Basically this weekend or last weekend. Early December is too far from Xmas. Might as well open a week earlier over Thanksgiving if the holidays aren't going to hit until your 4th weekend. The week of Xmas misses out on some of the holiday boost.

That said, Overseas is a bigger issue with regards to having two huge films launch in December.. Especially in China where protection periods would squeeze them together in the middle of January.
 
True.

I don't know. I'm starting to wonder, considering the ridiculous business American Sniper did earlier this year, Batman v. Superman in March, The Force Awakens turning December into June, whether we're rapidly approaching a future where the idea of "seasons" for ridiculous box-office just stops existing.

Just grab a date and shove people at it as hard as you can.
 

FTF

Member
Because Dec 2017, 18 and 19 is when Avatar 2 is projected to be released.

No one will want to go up against that, and Bob Iger did mention they wanted Episode VIII to be released in the usual Star Wars slot, May.

Avatar 2 isn't making that current 2017 date…and after this massive ow, Bob will change his mind and want VIII (and IX) to be December/holiday movies going forward.
 
True.

I don't know. I'm starting to wonder, considering the ridiculous business American Sniper did earlier this year, Batman v. Superman in March, The Force Awakens turning December into June, whether we're rapidly approaching a future where the idea of "seasons" for ridiculous box-office just stops existing.

Just grab a date and shove people at it as hard as you can.

The months left to "annex" at this point are January, February (maybe, 50 Shades opened pretty huge), September and October. I feel like January and September are going to be the last to fall, if only because if you have a movie big enough to open great in September, why not put it in August (and the same for January and December). It'll take someone being afraid of an Avatar/Star Wars level movie and giving it room for it to happen, but when those movies get moved, it's usually months and not weeks.

Edit: And looking it up, 50 Shades and American Sniper opened within 4 million of each other (89m vs. 85m), so if I consider one, I have to do both. I guess I just got caught up in the limited/wide release thing (technically opened in December, went wide for MLK weekend).
 

3N16MA

Banned
True.

I don't know. I'm starting to wonder, considering the ridiculous business American Sniper did earlier this year, Batman v. Superman in March, The Force Awakens turning December into June, whether we're rapidly approaching a future where the idea of "seasons" for ridiculous box-office just stops existing.

Just grab a date and shove people at it as hard as you can.

September is wide open.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Avatar 2 isn't making that current 2017 date…and after this massive ow, Bob will change his mind and want VIII (and IX) to be December/holiday movies going forward.

James Cameron recently reaffirmed the date. Its happening, get excite 😃
 

FTF

Member
James Cameron recently reaffirmed the date. Its happening, get excite 😃

And my reaction to him would be:

QyZso.gif
 
Avatar 2 isn't making that current 2017 date…and after this massive ow, Bob will change his mind and want VIII (and IX) to be December/holiday movies going forward.

I don't think the OW for TFA would have been any worse in the summer. It might have even been bigger. I think December may give it a better multiplier though which will mean more money in the end.
 
It does not seem like SW is coming near of dethroning Avatar´s WW gross. It´s seems like it won´t out-gross Titanic either.
Avatar opened with like 77 million. Clearly a Faustian bargain allowed for it to reach the highs it did. It's waaaay to early to make any predictions regarding star wars's long-term legs.
 
Oh, let's be clear that I am talking domestic gross only. Star Wars will make at least $1.75B Worldwide. Probably closer to (and perhaps over) $2B.
I am not sure if SW will hit 2 billion to be honest.

Avatar opened with like 77 million. Clearly a Faustian bargain allowed for it to reach the highs it did. It's waaaay to early to make any predictions regarding star wars's long-term legs.

And Avatar ended grossing $780 million in the US, and $2.7 billion WW.
 
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