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Wkd Box Office 12•18-20•15 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m

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G

GhaleonEB

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
49.3. I don't know that actuals ever got reported, though. Coulda hit 50 straight up.
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I don't think they report actuals for Friday or Saturday until the weekend is over, on Monday. Though since the estimates come out the morning after, they should be pretty accurate.

Expecting them to be pretty conservative with Sunday's estimate, like last week.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I don't think they report actuals for Friday or Saturday until the weekend is over, on Monday. Though since the estimates come out the morning after, they should be pretty accurate.

Expecting them to be pretty conservative with Sunday's estimate, like last week.
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I thought we were getting actuals per-day last weekend by midday the next day? Or am I remembering that wrong.

Real curious what tomrrow's numbers are gonna be. Still tripping off the fact the flick had a 2% GAIN from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Charles Foster Kane said:
I wonder if 53M is possible for Sunday.
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The drop from Sat-Sun last weekend was 11%. Similar drop would be like, 51-52 for this Sunday.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Charles Foster Kane said:
If it's 58 and Friday was really 49, anything 53+ will bring it to 160M.

I wonder if 53M is possible for Sunday.
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Last Sunday was $60.5m, off a $68.3m Saturday.

Projecting a bit, if today was $59m, and tomorrow has the same week over week % drop as today, then Sunday would be just under $53m. It's possible. (Edit: going from another angle as Bobby above but same general range. Seems to be tracking to just under $160m.)
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Charles Foster Kane said:
Bobby, if 160M happens, I think what you suggested as a goof will come true.
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So then we get to see this:
cC71hJY.jpg
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
Based on the estimates Sunday would need a 10% drop for the weekend to hit 160M.

49.3
58.5
52.6

EDIT: Of course Bobby already covered this.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Charles Foster Kane said:
Bobby, if 160M happens, I think what you suggested as a goof will come true. Even if it doesn't, it's very possible now.
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To be fair, not only did I not actually believe it was all that possible a possibility, but the OW numbers I was fucking with were worse than what we actually got:

Bobby Roberts said:
Basically, I'm wondering if WOM right now is lower than it would normally be, due to the number of high-level enthusiasts that have seen it already, whereas people who don't care near as much might leave the theater like "That was a really good movie. I see why people go apeshit for this Star Wars stuff"

I don't think it's likely at all, but it's what I'm keeping an eye on.

I mean, I suck at math, but working backwards from 3rd weekend being 100 mil flat, what kind of weekend-to-weekend drops are we looking at if we get 230 by Monday? I know it's gotta be somewhere in the 20-30 range, right?

It's a mild winter, it feels like a legit media phenomenon, the 2nd weekend is Christmas weekend...

Again - don't think it's likely. But it's interesting to look at.

edit: It'd basically have to have weekend to weekend drops of no more than 35% for two straight weekends - and that's IF it clears 230 OW.
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Of course, at the time, $230 mil was still considered to be kinda outlandish.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
This weekend is looking to be around a 16%-19% drop Fri-Sun (no previews). Say it's 19% (154.7M) then a 35% 3rd weekend drop would put it right at 100M.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
3N16MA said:
This weekend is looking to be around a 16%-19% drop Fri-Sun (no previews). Say it's 19% (154.7M) then a 35% 3rd weekend drop would put it right at 100M.
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Which would actually be a pretty high drop. Check out the drops the last time New Year's was on a Friday: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2010&wknd=01&p=.htm

Sherlock Holmes, which opened on Christmas and dropped 12% the next day, dropped only 41% for the weekend. Even Avatar's 9% drop was high compared to some films, which saw increases. I think TFA is looking at a <25% drop.
 
H

hodayathink

Member
TFA holds the single day record (including openings) for 4 of the 7 days of the week, and the non-opening record for 5 (6 if we were to look at non-opening weekend Saturdays, with it more than likely taking the non-opening weekend Sunday record in addition to the overall Sunday record it already has).

Edit: And the only reason it won't have all 7 days of the week is because theaters closed early on Thursday.
 
F

FTF

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
49 Friday
58 Saturday
53 Sunday

That gets you 160. That would be, minus the Thursday previews, a 16% weekend to weekend drop. With the previews, that's a 36% drop.

A 38% drop from 160 would be 100 mil for the 3rd weekend.
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Yeah, insane weekend. Thinking it drops more on Sun though, maybe to $48m, for a $155m weekend. Regardless, just massive second weekend and it'll make TFA 5th all time domestic in just 10 days.
 
A

alexandros

Banned
Dash_Riprock said:
I don't know what's worse: The people who put Avengers ahead of Star Wars, or the people who put BvS ANYWHERE on that list.
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I put Age of Ultron ahead of Star Wars, so serve me some crow. In hindsight it may seem ridiculous and I freely admit that I underestimated Star Wars' appeal, but Age Ultron didn't live up to expectations in both quality and box office. The movie just wasn't good enough to warrant multiple viewings.
 
J

jman2050

Member
alexandros said:
I put Age of Ultron ahead of Star Wars, so serve me some crow. In hindsight it may seem ridiculous and I freely admit that I underestimated Star Wars' appeal, but Age Ultron didn't live up to expectations in both quality and box office. The movie just wasn't good enough to warrant multiple viewings.
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I feel like we all should have known better. Yeah,Marvel movies are appealing and make tons of money, enough that 1.3 billion is seen as a disappointment, but it's like we all just kinda forgot that Star Wars is one of the most powerful and well known entertainment brands the US has ever seen.
 
C

Chamber

love on your sleeve
Beat Jurassic World's 2nd weekend record without even counting Sunday and should be breathing down Avatar's neck after just 3 weeks.
 
S

soundscream

Member
JeffZero said:
There were ample reasons to suspect Age of Ultron would perform more strongly than The Force Awakens.
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Not really.

Star Wars has fans from the 70's to the present. Comic Book movie popularity outside of Batman or Superman just started around1999. The fan base is nowhere near close.
 
D

Discotheque

Banned
jurassic world seems closer to this than I thought. this is on track to break a billion in 12 days, JW did it in 13.

it beat jurassic's opening weekend globally by 17 million. its still a big gap but damn i'm impressed just how huge jurassic world ended up being. it's not being eclipsed that badly here.

Star Wars will very likely overtake it's final tally though.
 
C

CassSept

Member
It would have beaten 1 bil in 10 days if it was released simultaneously in Europe and the US instead of being released 2 days earlier in some European countries.
 
A

ArmGunar

Member
ArmGunar said:
Weekend's predictions for Star Wars
- BOM : 178,54 millions
- BoxOffice.com : 163 millions
- Deadline report : 150-162 millions

Which one is right according to you ?

I'll go for 165-167M weekend
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Too bad I'll lose but there was insane numbers

Notrollious said:
Going 160 cuz it's almost in the middle lol
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GhaleonEB said:
Knock out the midnight sales from last weekend, but Friday will get a big boost relative to a normal drop by virtue of being Christmas. Add in a dash for WTF TFA keeps over performing and I'd call it around 170.
Click to expand...
 
A

ArmGunar

Member
Study suggests Star Wars: The Force Awakens could be huge in China

Reuters has analysed social media posts on Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter, which suggest JJ Abrams&#8217;s movie is outpacing this year&#8217;s big box office hits in China. The Force Awakens has racked up more than 700,000 mentions since the start of December, compared to 230,000 for China&#8217;s biggest foreign import of 2015, Fast & Furious 7, over a similar period.
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Some experts believe the new film could make up to $100m in China on its opening weekend, on 9 January
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http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/23/study-suggests-star-wars-the-force-awakens-could-be-huge-in-china
 
Z

zerodayPopbot

Member
Crazy stuff. Helps that its really good.

I've seen it 4 times so far... I keep looking for people to see it with just so I have an excuse to keep going.

Wanna see it at least once more...
 
O

overcast

Member
Starsailor said:
"hello, i inherit your success"
This is insane, i never expect this movie to do that. Everyone was so scared about a bad SW movie.
Do you think the very good reviews from critics and viewers helped?
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I would argue the great reviews is what gave it the legs it is showing, yeah. It was going to be huge, but the positive reception drove it home.
 
F

fierrotlepou

Member
So what's the actual record now? Has Star Wars beaten every record there is or...?

Has it surpassed Avatar yet? All this info is kind of confusing.
 
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