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[Brucey]

The obvious issue to me using 2020 trends to 2024 is that in 2020 while xb one sales dropped off the series launch was there to sustain numbers.

There's no next generation for Xbox to rely on with series dropping fast. We'll maybe in 2026, 2027 etc but nothing for the short term.

I wonder if that's what Kepler meant when he said current apu shipments were surprisingly low, that they simply aren't making any currently or in the last couple quarters, not Ltd numbers,

 

[azertydu91]

And some of us are like ...

 

[m14]

Is that what caused the PlayStation 2 to outsell the Xbox 360 in 2005, 2006, and 2007? The fact it was outdated compared to the Xbox 360? Lol

Ps5 will sell 100+ million and you can def expect GTA VI to push ps5 / pro sales heavy. Even if ps6 drops in 2027 , the console will be approaching ps4 sales by then. Especially if the leaks are true that GTA is running at 60fps ONLY on pro.

No, but the PS2 was significantly cheaper than the Xbox 360 in those years. Sony won't be able to cost reduce the PS5 anywhere near as much as they could back in the PS2 days, hence why it will be sharply discontinued after the PS6 launches.

 

[jm89]

Where have they gone to if they did?

Behind rikys couch

 

[mckmas8808]

Putting games on other platforms.

What other platforms? Most people that want a Playstation, want a console to play games on. Unless you are thinking of people opting to buy a PC instead.

 

[foamdino]

From the other sales thread, provides a little more context:

Circana numbers posted over at installbase.

2023 Results:

[PS5] 6660k
[NSW] 4880k
[XBS] 3780k

2024 Results:

[PS5] 5970k
[NSW] 3210k
[XBS] 2760k

 

[mckmas8808]

As pointed out by Nishino, PS future is multigeneration.

This one PS4 has stuck way longer than expected, with still some 50M users using the good old PS4 12 years after release as main gaming device. But it wasn't intended.

Next generation it will be intended, PS5 and PS5 Pro will be the "low end" of the Playstation, getting 90% of the games and positioned as low cost or entry point to the ecosystem and with the handheld (PS5/PS4) boosting numbers.


With current costs Sony can't have a user base of less than 50M for 2/3 years, and the budgets to create games unable to run on PS5 aren't there.

Sadly, I think you're going to be right on this. It's not what I'm used to, since I've been a PS gamer since 1997. But times have changed.

 

[jm89]

From the other sales thread, provides a little more context:

Circana numbers posted over at installbase.

2023 Results:

[PS5] 6660k
[NSW] 4880k
[XBS] 3780k

2024 Results:

[PS5] 5970k
[NSW] 3210k
[XBS] 2760k

For the other years and end of 2024 we get.

PS5
2020: 1,960,000
2021: 4,280,000
2022: 5,660,000
2023: 6,660,000
2024: 5,970,000
Total at end of 2024 = 24,530,000

XBS
2020: 1,490,000
2021: 3,730,000
2022: 4,480,000
2023: 3,780,000
2024: 2,760,000
Total at end of 2024 = 16,240,000

 

[Heisenberg007]

For the other years and end of 2024 we get.

PS5
2020: 1,960,000
2021: 4,280,000
2022: 5,660,000
2023: 6,660,000
2024: 5,970,000
End of 2024 = 24,530,000

XBS
2020: 1,490,000
2021: 3,730,000
2022: 4,480,000
2023: 3,780,000
2024: 2,760,000
End of 2024 = 16,240,000

So Xbox sold 16.24 million in US and 21 million in the rest of the world?

Suddenly the ratio has changed from 55:45 to 43:57.

 

[mckmas8808]

Welfare and his weird methods continue.

By the way, here is another way to look at Welfare's data and how wrong he is:

We know that Xbox Series had sold 21 million by June 2023. So that means:

• From Nov. 2020 to Jun. 2023 = 21 million consoles sold in 31 months. In other words, 0.67 million per month.
• From Jul. 2023 to Jul. 2025 = 16* million consoles sold (as per Welfare) in 24 months. In other words, 0.67 million per month.

So according to Welfare, there was NO decline in Xbox console sales whatsoever in the last 2 years - when Xbox has consistently reported hardware decline in every financial report.

Microsoft reports hardware decline. Welfare reports there was no decline.

Does this make sense to anybody, really?

Bro..........when you're right, you're right. Welfare it's okay broski! We all get things wrong from time to time. You are one of the most trusted sales figure guys on the internet, so we NEED you to do better. It's okay to admit your methodology was wrong and put in the work to correct it.

Some of us love this because we love games. While others are in love with data science of all kinds. And the rare of us are a combination of both (i.e. ME). I just want proper estimates, so that we all can get a better understanding of the hobby we love. But PLEASE stop this craziness where you have to keep over inflating Xbox Series console numbers for "reasons".

 

[Ebrietas]

Welfare and his weird methods continue.

By the way, here is another way to look at Welfare's data and how wrong he is:

We know that Xbox Series had sold 21 million by June 2023. So that means:

• From Nov. 2020 to Jun. 2023 = 21 million consoles sold in 31 months. In other words, 0.67 million per month.
• From Jul. 2023 to Jul. 2025 = 16* million consoles sold (as per Welfare) in 24 months. In other words, 0.67 million per month.

So according to Welfare, there was NO decline in Xbox console sales whatsoever in the last 2 years - when Xbox has consistently reported hardware decline in every financial report.

Microsoft reports hardware decline. Welfare reports there was no decline.

Does this make sense to anybody, really?

MS says their own hardware sales have been declining? What's their source or methodology they use to arrive at that conclusion?

 

[mckmas8808]

So Xbox sold 16.24 million in US and 21 million in the rest of the world?

Suddenly the ratio has changed from 55:45 to 43:57.

Funny enough, if the ratio was still 55:45 for Xbox (The 55% being North America and 45% being the rest of the world), then by the end of 2024 that would put the Xbox Series console at 29.5 million sold. From what people are saying now......the Xbox Series console has shipped 500,000 consoles so far in 2025. So that would put it literally RIGHT at 30 million by now. So no where close to 37 million and give some validity to K KeplerL2 thoughts that it's under 30, because for all we know the ratio could be 60:40 now.

1. Especially when you consider that for the Xbox One, 57% of all sales were in North America. 43% were in the rest of the world (33 million vs. 25 million).
2. So if it's 57:43 again, like the Xbox One era for the Series console era.....we are looking at an estimated 29 million total Xbox Series consoles shipped/sold to retailers by the end of June 2025.
3. If it's 60:40, then that means the total estimated Xbox Series consoles would have sold 27 million total by June 2025. I do not believe the ratio is 60:40 though.
4. Personally I believe this is what K KeplerL2 is hinting at. Especially with what he has discovered recently with the total fab numbers from AMD. They are slowing down their manufacturing rate of total Xbox Series consoles made now. Which makes sense why they've increased the price. Might as well get as much profit per Xbox sold now as you can. Because if you are making less, the cost per unit will more than likely increase due to lack of scale.

**BOTTOM LINE**

We have more than enough information to believe the Xbox Series consoles have sold at or around 30 million units. With a possibility that it sold slightly less. But there's literally ZERO CHANCE than it's sold over 35 million. Let alone 37 million!

 

[jm89]

I'm open to listening to everyone, even Welfare, whose numbers are used in just about every Circana topic on GAF without anyone questioning it.


Like this fool of a took.

USA estimates are fine. With circana data people have a baseline to work with as sales leak every once and a while and mat provides YOY percentages.

The questionable sales numbers are outside the USA.

 

[jm89]

So Xbox sold 16.24 million in US and 21 million in the rest of the world?

Suddenly the ratio has changed from 55:45 to 43:57.

Possibly a bit more right now then 16.24 million as those are end of 2024 numbers, but yeah where are the majority of the other sales coming from to come to 37 million?

 

[Brucey]

Funny enough, if the ratio was still 55:45 for Xbox (The 55% being North America and 45% being the rest of the world), then by the end of 2024 that would put the Xbox Series console at 29.5 million sold. From what people are saying now......the Xbox Series console has shipped 500,000 consoles so far in 2025. So that would put it literally RIGHT at 30 million by now. So no where close to 37 million and give some validity to K KeplerL2 thoughts that it's under 30, because for all we know the ratio could be 60:40 now.

1. Especially when you consider that for the Xbox One, 57% of all sales were in North America. 43% were in the rest of the world (33 million vs. 25 million).
2. So if it's 57:43 again, like the Xbox One era for the Series console era.....we are looking at an estimated 29 million total Xbox Series consoles shipped/sold to retailers by the end of June 2025.
3. If it's 60:40, then that means the total estimated Xbox Series consoles would have sold 27 million total by June 2025. I do not believe the ratio is 60:40 though.
4. Personally I believe this is what K KeplerL2 is hinting at. Especially with what he has discovered recently with the total fab numbers from AMD. They are slowing down their manufacturing rate of total Xbox Series consoles made now. Which makes sense why they've increased the price. Might as well get as much profit per Xbox sold now as you can. Because if you are making less, the cost per unit will more than likely increase due to lack of scale.

**BOTTOM LINE**

We have more than enough information to believe the Xbox Series consoles have sold at or around 30 million units. With a possibility that it sold slightly less. But there's literally ZERO CHANCE than it's sold over 35 million. Let alone 37 million!

Welfare knows that sales in Europe have absolutely tanked far beyond us sales (a youtube video he made in Jan 2025). I mean there's countries where you simply cannot buy one off the shelf. They absolutely don't want to be left holding a bunch of consoles in the channel. Screenshot from era.

 

[Gamer King]

I wonder if that's what Kepler meant when he said current apu shipments were surprisingly low, that they simply aren't making any currently or in the last couple quarters, not Ltd numbers,

Looking at how bad Xbox Series sales are in US right now, and also Xbox Series X w/drive being out of stock sometimes, is safe to assume shipments are very low at this point.

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

What other platforms? Most people that want a Playstation, want a console to play games on. Unless you are thinking of people opting to buy a PC instead.

You know it's other platforms besides PC.

 

[mckmas8808]

Welfare knows that sales in Europe have absolutely tanked far beyond us sales (a youtube video he made in Jan 2025). I mean there's countries where you simply cannot buy one off the shelf. They absolutely don't want to be left holding a bunch of consoles in the channel. Screenshot from era.

Hold on.....so he KNEW Xbox Series sales in Europe fell by 48% from 2023 to 2024 and he still doesn't adjust for that in his total lifetime numbers? What the heck Welfare !?! What's going on man? I was defending you earlier in this thread, now I feel like you are going out your way to trick people.

You know it's other platforms besides PC.

Like what?

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

Hold on.....so he KNEW Xbox Series sales in Europe fell by 48% from 2023 to 2024 and he still doesn't adjust for that in his total lifetime numbers? What the heck Welfare !?! What's going on man? I was defending you earlier in this thread, now I feel like you are going out your way to trick people.



Like what?

They are putting games on other platforms besides PC.

 

[mckmas8808]

They are putting games on other platforms besides PC.

Which platforms? And how often?

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

Which platforms? And how often?

Xbox

 

[Radical_3d]

Xbox

So you believe that PS5 will end behind the PS4 sales because MLB is on XBox while having their worst generation since OG XBox?

I think that to surpass or be short of the PS4 sales will depend on next year's GTA.

 

[Wulfer]

Xbox isn't the real threat this gen!

This is:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/gen...ke-really-cutting-back/?utm_source=reddit.com


What good are all these systems on any side if gamers aren't buying games?

 

[reinking]

Xbox isn't the real threat this gen!

This is:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/gen...ke-really-cutting-back/?utm_source=reddit.com


What good are all these systems on any side if gamers aren't buying games?

Did Sony's recent financials show that software sales were up?

 

[Wulfer]

Did Sony's recent financials show that software sales were up?

Didn't you see the latest Nintendo thread, 5.9 billion in software sales?

Sony's numbers don't matter. (joke)

 

[SegaSnatcher]

And the move to bump the price by $100 more was definitely a smart move...... They are clearly moving on. 2026 and everything will be an "Xbox".

 

[mckmas8808]

Xbox isn't the real threat this gen!

This is:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/gen...ke-really-cutting-back/?utm_source=reddit.com


What good are all these systems on any side if gamers aren't buying games?

Y'all gotta stop with this non sense. Why act as if on people 18-30 are buying games? Plus while they are buying less games, it doesn't mean they aren't buying "ANY" games.

 

[demigod]

Welfare - If you care to respond, please explain how this following math works out with your 37 million estimate. Thanks in advance.

Hold on.....so he KNEW Xbox Series sales in Europe fell by 48% from 2023 to 2024 and he still doesn't adjust for that in his total lifetime numbers? What the heck Welfare !?! What's going on man? I was defending you earlier in this thread, now I feel like you are going out your way to trick people.



Like what?

 

[nowhat]

In related news, my penis is estimated to be 12 inches.

 

[Ar¢tos]

In related news, my penis is estimated to be 12 inches.

Do you estimate that based on several of your measurements or by collecting 3rd party data?

 

[nowhat]

Do you estimate that based on several of your measurements or by collecting 3rd party data?

I do it like the 37M estimate for Series consoles, a whole lot of wishful thinking.

 

[Fafalada]

A developer from a studio that works on the platform will probably have direct information, like Take 2's access to IDG reports that was cited earlier in the thread.

T2 was corporate PR with a quoted source.
Personal posting from a small studio* employee doesn't have more credibility than any poster on here. Ie. "It's possible that person had seen real data, but there's no evidence to indicate it".

*I use the term relatively, but for a similar anecdote, I've personally witnessed tech.director and other senior roles at a top 3 (by size) publisher quote VGchartz numbers unironically as a source for both hw and their own sw sales data.

Put it simply, the only way call to authority works here is if they cite a source.

Is this true? I'm not saying you're wrong F Fafalada , but I'd be shocked if 66% of all Xbox consoles sales for the past 12 years have been in the US.

I was thinking 60% tbh, but anyway. Obviously public sources are scarce, but x1 I recall 56%, which should be above 60% for NA(my bad for conflating it with US though).
What indications I've seen, suggest Xs has declined more outside of NA, so the reverse ratios really make no sense unless there was hidden geographic expansion no-one talks about.

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

So you believe that PS5 will end behind the PS4 sales because MLB is on XBox while having their worst generation since OG XBox?

I think that to surpass or be short of the PS4 sales will depend on next year's GTA.

Ok

 

[jm89]

One less country to get Xbox to that 37 million dream


South Korea out

 

[Boo Who?]

Per ChatGPT (not sure if someone posted this already):
As of June 2024, Microsoft's Xbox Series X and Series S consoles have sold an estimated 28.3 million units worldwide.

 

[twilo99]

To this day, I don't understand the hate XBOX gets on GAF.

I've narrowed it down to Sony fans simply not wanting the PlayStation hardware to have any competition whatsoever.

Any time Xbox hardware is mentioned the conversation becomes really heated.

There are all sorts of fairytales about "special sauce" when it comes to PS consoles, especially in combination with the name Cerny, so that myth must live on at all costs.

Just look at any thread about Xbox hardware and you will see what I mean…

It's really bizarre behavior but also very entertaining!

Xbox must die and fail at all costs or else ..

 

[reinking]

Just look at any thread about Xbox hardware and you will see what I mean…

...or Nintendo or PlayStation.

Consoles in general have their fans and their haters. Xbox just has fewer fans so it seems to get piled on more. Plus, Phil and company are very outspoken and generate attention.

 

[mckmas8808]

...or Nintendo or PlayStation.

Consoles in general have their fans and their haters. Xbox just has fewer fans so it seems to get piled on more. Plus, Phil and company are very outspoken and generate attention.

VERY VERY outspoken. Plus.......they spent over $80 Billion to run Playstation out of business.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

I've narrowed it down to Sony fans simply not wanting the PlayStation hardware to have any competition whatsoever.

Any time Xbox hardware is mentioned the conversation becomes really heated.

There are all sorts of fairytales about "special sauce" when it comes to PS consoles, especially in combination with the name Cerny, so that myth must live on at all costs.

Just look at any thread about Xbox hardware and you will see what I mean…

It's really bizarre behavior but also very entertaining!

Xbox must die and fail at all costs or else ..

Or else gaming dies.

Finish the sentence.

Xbox was willing to trash the entire console gaming business plan by losing money with Gamepass, with the goal of pushing the price up again once everyone else is gone. They failed, but their intentions are still evil.

And when they finally lost the console war, they had their followers come on these forums talking about how Console is dead and the PC gaming is the future. We are talking about Xbox customers who never touched PC and know nothing about PC, pretending to be PC gamers and making REAL PC gamers like me extremely offended.

Xbox is dying because it is what it deserves.

 

[Radical_3d]

Or else gaming dies.

Finish the sentence.

Xbox was willing to trash the entire console gaming business plan by losing money with Gamepass, with the goal of pushing the price up again once everyone else is gone. They failed, but their intentions are still evil.

And when they finally lost the console war, they had their followers come on these forums talking about how Console is dead and the PC gaming is the future. We are talking about Xbox customers who never touched PC and know nothing about PC, pretending to be PC gamers and making REAL PC gamers like me extremely offended.

Xbox is dying because it is what it deserves.

You're not wrong but they were a necessary evil. We are heading towards a monopolistic Sony and that is going to hurt a lot. Not you, since the PC market is already fucked, but you get the idea. You have the nVidia experience there. And yes, their zealots are unbearable.

 

[Conflict NZ]

One less country to get Xbox to that 37 million dream


South Korea out

They have to be putting out their new console next year right? Cutting off supply to this many countries more than a year in advance would be nuts.