Wkd Box Office 06•12-14•15 - It's Jurassic World, we all just live in it, dino-might!

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Calling it now, Star Wars 7 won't touch Jurassic World's opening numbers.

I'm thinking Star Wars will open to about $158 million in December, but will ultimately make more - with its 14 weekends of no competition.
 
kswiston said:
First weekend exit polls suggest that Jurassic World actually had an older audience than the Avengers did.
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Yea the audience age is around the same for both films, but a big difference is the split between male/female between Ultron and JW. Ultron trends towards the comic book crowd with 59% male, meanwhile JW had a relatively even split 52/48. The JW franchise has more multigenerational appeal.
 
Senoculum said:
I'm thinking Star Wars will open to about $158 million in December, but will ultimately make more - with its 14 weekends of no competition.
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Star Wars doesn't have a clear run of 3 months. January and February are not complete wastelands anymore. Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 are out in January this year for instance.

Ride Along 2 will most likely be large enough to top Star Wars' fifth weekend gross, so it looks likely that it will receive 4 weekends at #1. I don't see anything before then being big enough to cut that run shorter.
 
I swear, someone sacrificed their firstborn for JW's performance. Success is one thing but this is something else altogether
 
kswiston said:
Star Wars 7 has virtually zero chance at topping Avatar Worldwide. Ignoring what grossing $2B overseas actually means, the Euro was over $1.40 US when Avatar was released. Now it is sitting at $1.13 US. The Yen was trading at around 90 per USD. Now $1 USD is worth over 120 yen. Several other local currencies are way down as well (Australian Dollar, the Russian Ruble, etc). So in local currencies, Star Wars would actually have to make hundreds of millions more than Avatar, just to tie the USD gross.

That's not even considering the fact that 3D shares are way down in North America and Europe compared to Avatar's 75-80% share.
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Thanks for the info, I didn't realize how much currency affected the Avatar totals. Its never going to be touched.
 
Sulik2 said:
Thanks for the info, I didn't realize how much currency affected the Avatar totals. Its never going to be touched.
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Something will eventually top it, but we have to wait for more ticket inflation and developing market growth. Right now, a lot of that stuff is being negated by the strong US dollar, which is really affecting film grosses outside of mainland Asia and some areas of Latin America (where ticket prices went through hyper-inflation).
 
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So the early estimate of $20M for Wednesday matches up pretty well with my Wed/Thurs predictions above. Jurassic World should enter the weekend with $293-295M.

If it hits $400M on Sunday, it will break the fastest to $400M speed record by 4 days. Even if it comes in at around $385-390M after the weekend, that record will be broken by at least 2 days.

Unless we start seeing large drops, $600M domestic is looking good. $500M is 100% locked.
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
A peak merely implies that the popularity has crested and can't be achieved again.

For a gaming analogy, Call of Duty is still the biggest annual franchise but it clearly peaked with either Modern Warfare 2 or the first Black Ops in terms of popularity.
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that is not true

MW2 had the biggest release ever in terms of first week sales (for video games)

black ops 1 beat that.

then MW3 beat THAT

then black ops 2 beat that!

then it was topped by gta V.

but good analogy anyways, carry on.
 
kswiston said:
Star Wars 7 has virtually zero chance at topping Avatar Worldwide. Ignoring what grossing $2B overseas actually means, the Euro was over $1.40 US when Avatar was released. Now it is sitting at $1.13 US. The Yen was trading at around 90 per USD. Now $1 USD is worth over 120 yen. Several other local currencies are way down as well (Australian Dollar, the Russian Ruble, etc). So in local currencies, Star Wars would actually have to make hundreds of millions more than Avatar, just to tie the USD gross.

That's not even considering the fact that 3D shares are way down in North America and Europe compared to Avatar's 75-80% share.
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You'd probably need a film that tops $900 million(domestically) and at least $500 million in China to have a chance at dethroning Avatar. Seems unlikely any time soon, but then so did Jurassic World doing what it's doing.
 
Very interested to see how this weekend turns out
Inside Out has been getting fantastic reviews so i wonder how much business it will be able to steal away from JW

edit; Deadline predicting a 60-65 Million weekend for Inside out
Also both inside out and minions open in Australia this weekend. What a bizarre choice for scheduling
 
PhoncipleBone said:
We shall have a good idea by late tomorrow night when some tracking comes in. I do wonder if the higher weekday grosses for this will detract a bit from the weekend grosses.

Also, what is the tracking at for Inside Out?



Same here.
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Couple places pegging it in the mid 60s. It's possible JW does not take the 2nd weekend record as Avengers biggest competition was Dark Shadows which grossed 29.6M its opening weekend.
 
Eidan said:
Eh, legs certainly have something to do with quality. These weekend drops should be really interesting.
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Yes, but those tend to be exceptions.

I'm referring to these movies with massive openings or overall huge box office grosses.

The landscape would be very different if box office was about quality.
 
Just got tickets to see it a second time. This time with my girlfriend.

And her parents.

I went with my best friend. He went a second time - also with his parents.

Everyone wants to see this movie; and lots of people are seeing it twice. The word of mouth is phenomenal.
 
So it looks like Jurassic World will take the quickest to $1B record in 14-15 days unless this weekend is much smaller than expected. Sunday will be Day 12. If the film is at $690M today, I am going to guess that it breaks $950M by Sunday.

I was pretty accurate with my Wednesday prediction that I made yesterday morning, but may have been pessimistic with today's domestic gross. If the film does indeed early $17.5-18M today, I don't see how it misses $100M+ this weekend.
 
Here's some fun with numbers. The Lost World's opening weekend numbers: 72.1 million (then a record).

Jurassic World's first Monday to Wednesday: 69.6 million.

Just let that sink in for a moment.
 
The Sum of Zero said:
People seriously think this? I firmly believe the opposite.

Jurassic World should have already proven that you do not underestimate nostalgia.
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Winter openings are usually smaller. The highest December opening of all time is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, with $84 million. Star Wars will easily top that but I'm not too sure I can see it reaching Avengers/Jurassic World numbers. I'd love to see it happen though, no one expected Jurassic World to end up with the biggest opening weekend of all time... so expectations be damned I suppose. Anything's possible.
 
I watched it two times already and gave away a couple of tickets I didn't use for the premiere, someone asked me to go with him tonight so maybe I'll watch it a third time.
 
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