PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Teggy said:
There are people who really actually believe Donald "Spread it out in small doses" Trump would be a good president? Are we sure this isn't just some 4chan thing?
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These people are legitimate GOP voters. He will get some votes, and probably take second in at least one state. This assumes he's still actually running of which I am still unconvinced of.
 
Trump's also going to run into issues actually running a campaign. Right now, he's in the interviews and speeches phase. I don't think he'll ever graduate to the local politicking phase. Just don't see him caring that much.
 
Tamanon said:
Donald "We need global warming" Trump's also going to run into issues actually running a campaign. Right now, he's in the interviews and speeches phase. I don't think he'll ever graduate to the local politicking phase. Just don't see him caring that much.
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I'm not sure I'll be convinced he's running until a caucus actually happens.
 
ivysaur12 said:
No one should be cheering for Alan Grayson. There are accomplished swing state progressive Senators (see: Sherrod Brown), but Grayson is a gaffe prone moron who's a huge liability in the general.

If you're going to nominate a progressive, nominate someone who can actually win and who's a good candidate. Not Alan Grayson. Bleh.
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I'm not nominating anyone. I haven't been to Florida in 25 years.
 
My final Bernie article for today.

Bernie could win IA and NH then lose everywhere else.

CJacsoCWoAA_NDu.png


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/
 
NeoXChaos said:
1. He will always be written off until he can show that he can build upon his current base of support. Most of the pundits in the articles I link are neutral with no party affiliation with years of political experience so I happen to take their opinions with some credibility. There is nothing that suggest history cant be wrong this time but here are the facts and here is a logical conclusion barring some unsurprising event. I guess I am arguing all 3 at the same time.

2. He is certainly a threat to her depending on what poll you believe and put weight behind. He has a chance even if it is a 0.5% chance.

3. I have no problem with the progressive experiment he is doing. I just dont think or really know if it can penetrate in this polarized environment. It wont end and die if he does not win. It will be passed to Hillary and the party as a whole in the general.

4. Sorry I just dont like this pushing left stuff. It assumes that the country is far left when it isnt. I see no purpose in why Hillary has to do it when the country is center right/left depending on the mood. She is in a good sweet spot. It's rather hypocritical of us when the other side is criticized for going too far right. A winning coalition requires more than liberal democrats/independents, moderates and even some conservatives need to be reached out to. That is why the parties return to the center to try and win. That hasnt changed no matter how far off the election has been away from. The parties have tried both extremes with terrible results.

5. If I am misrepresenting stats then I apologize.
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I do understand your position better since I made those posts back then, in that you think Bernie's momentum might win him the primary, but that momentum won't translate to the general. I still think a primary momentum large enough to make Bernie somehow overcome Clinton would have to coincide with momentum of other statistics like socialism's favorability and head to head polls for the general, but I do get where you're coming from now in that sense.

I suppose there can't be data to confirm my theory until he becomes well known.

NeoXChaos said:
My final Bernie article for today.

Bernie could win IA and NH then lose everywhere else.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/
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This I agree with. People care far too much about IA and NH.
 
Hilariously, Trump came out and said he can't vouch for the legal status of all his workers.

This is getting funnier and funnier by the day.
 
thepotatoman said:
I do understand your position better since I made those posts back then, in that you think Bernie's momentum might win him the primary, but that momentum won't translate to the general. I still think a primary momentum large enough to make Bernie somehow overcome Clinton would have to coincide with momentum of other statistics like socialism's favorability and head to head polls for the general, but I do get where you're coming from now in that sense.

I suppose there can't be data to confirm my theory until he becomes well known.



This I agree with. People care far too much about IA and NH.
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agreed. Its makes me wonder what if NH and IA weren't the first to go. Would the results change anything as the calendar went on in reverse and states like CA went first. IA launched Obama. Would SC have launched Obama if it went first?
 
Jeb Bush: People Need to Work Longer Hours
Today, Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush, who as of-late has gone relatively gaffe-free, uttered a phrase that may not go over too well with the constituency he seeks to reach. During an interview that was live-streamed on the app Periscope, Bush told New Hampshire’s The Union Leader that to grow the economy, “people should work longer hours.”

He was answering a question about his plans for tax reform and responded:

“My aspiration for the country and I believe we can achieve it, is 4 percent growth as far as the eye can see. Which means we have to be a lot more productive, workforce participation has to rise from its all-time modern lows. It means that people need to work longer hours” and, through their productivity, gain more income for their families. That's the only way we're going to get out of this rut that we're in.”
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Maybe don't take campaign advice from Mitt Romney?
 
Macho Madness said:
Jeb Bush: People Need to Work Longer Hours


Maybe don't take campaign advice from Mitt Romney?
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*facepalm*

Pat Robertson, as crazy as he is, was absolutely right: To appeal to right-wing voters in the primaries, these guys have to say crazy stuff. By the time the general election hits, they've said so many crazy things they have a much tougher hill to climb.

As for the statement itself, it is absolutely infuriating. Classic republican "Dump on everyday workers" philosophy. "No, really--you can all be millionaires! Just work longer hours! Bootstraps!"
 
In good policy news, the ACA has reduced spending on contraception by billions; savings on the pill alone were $1.3 billion in 2013. Since the provision went into effect, the cost of most contraceptive methods has declined significantly. And although this particular study only analyzed out-of-pocket expenses, it has probably reduced overall costs associated with unplanned pregnancies. The evidence is strong that contraception improves social and economic outcomes for women. Yes, another feather in the cap for Obamacare.

Out-of-pocket spending on most major birth control methods fell sharply in the months after the Affordable Care Act began requiring insurance plans to cover contraception at no cost to women, a new study has found. Spending on the pill, the most popular form of prescription birth control, dropped by about half in the first six months of 2013, compared with the same period in 2012, before the mandate took effect.

The study, by health economists from the University of Pennsylvania, analyzed health insurance claims from a large private insurer with business in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It evaluated the effect of the Affordable Care Act, the biggest piece of social legislation in decades, on women’s pocketbooks. It estimated that savings from the pill alone were about $1.4 billion in 2013.
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Macho Madness said:
Jeb Bush: People Need to Work Longer Hours


Maybe don't take campaign advice from Mitt Romney?
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Yeah. It would be wonderful if the economy were robust enough that people could work as many hours as they desired. Perhaps then they might enjoy a pittance of wage growth. But forget about that. I want to hear how tax cuts for millionaires will achieve unprecedented economic growth for all.
 
ErasureAcer said:
Very odd numbers. Huckabee is #1?
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[Trump]'s the top choice of Republican primary voters in the state, getting 16% to 12% for Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 9% for Ben Carson and Marco Rubio, 7% for Rand Paul, 6% for Ted Cruz, 5% for Chris Christie, 4% for Carly Fiorina, 2% for Rick Perry, 1% each for Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Santorum, and less than 1% each for John Kasich and George Pataki.
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.
 
Plinko said:
*facepalm*

Pat Robertson, as crazy as he is, was absolutely right: To appeal to right-wing voters in the primaries, these guys have to say crazy stuff. By the time the general election hits, they've said so many crazy things they have a much tougher hill to climb.

As for the statement itself, it is absolutely infuriating. Classic republican "Dump on everyday workers" philosophy. "No, really--you can all be millionaires! Just work longer hours! Bootstraps!"
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Why would Pat Robertson say that? You mean Buchannan?
 
Hillary under fire from tail gunner carly

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/carly-fiorina-blasts-hillary-clinton-cnn-interview-article-1.2285357

Fiorina, a former Hewlett Packard executive and the only woman in the GOP field, told Fox News that Clinton's CNN interview showed that the Democratic front-runner will "continue to try to run away from accountability from everything she's done or not done."

"She truly does not see a conflict of interest, I think that's clear," Fiorina said. "She doesn't see that it's an issue that you have a private server in your basement that you've wiped clean. She doesn't see a conflict in the cozy little relationship between the Clinton Global Initiative, the State Department and the foreign governments who had business in front of the State Department. She doesn't see it. And this is vintage Clinton as well, it's sort of like 'Just trust us, we know best, honestly there's nothing to see here.' Every question that's raised is part of the vast right-wing conspiracy."
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Shots fired
 
I saw this confederate flag profile pic and my curiosity got the best of me. I read like 40 replies of people telling him it's a symbol of racism while he and some other people write page long responses about how everyone is uneducated and the meaning of the design and the real reason for the civil war (those aggressive northerners!). I went to school with this guy in Wisconsin, and he is black... I can't even.

edit: Meant for the "Those awful right-wing Facebook pics" topic, only slightly off-topic.
 
Pat Robertson has come out for marijuana decriminalization, he was practically a Democrat except against abortion and pornography at times in debates when he ran in 1988 for President. (EDIT: I think he was a Democrat before the 1980's actually...) He can be a bit of an odd ball in terms of standard political spectrum placing.

Anyway:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4znSboXpSl0
Pat Robertson said:
You know how the Republicans are, they can snatch defeats from the jaws of victory with great ease. The next thing you know, there’s a whole bunch of radicals on the right knocking off established figures and saying, we’re going to call on them to be responsible. Before long, the candidates the Republicans put out aren’t capable of beating the Democrats and so the Democrats laugh all the way to the ballot box and beyond. In any event, it’s theirs to lose right now, we’ll see what happens. The people have had enough of what’s going on in Washington and they will show their displeasure at the polls unless the Republicans screw up, which they’re perfectly capable of doing.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyQ7LaaZsds
Pat Robertson said:
I believe it was Lyndon Johnson that said, ‘Don’t these people realize if they push me over to an extreme position I’ll lose the election? And I’m the one who will be supporting what they want but they’re going to make it so I can’t win.’ Those people in the Republican primary have got to lay off of this stuff. They’re forcing their leaders, the frontrunners, into positions that will mean they lose the general election. Now whether this did it to Cain I don’t know, but nevertheless, you appeal to the narrow base and they’ll applaud the daylights out of what you’re saying and then you hit the general election and they say ‘no way’ and then the Democrat, whoever it is, is going to just play these statements to the hilt. They’ve got to stop this! It’s just so counterproductive! … Well, if they want to lose, this is the game for losers.
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I believe it was Lyndon Johnson that said, ‘Don’t these people realize if they push me over to an extreme position I’ll lose the election? And I’m the one who will be supporting what they want but they’re going to make it so I can’t win.’
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P7NnInr.jpg


It was impossible to resist
 
Oblivion said:
Carly Fiorina is the last person on the planet to talk about other people refusing to take responsibility.

She still thinks she did nothing wrong during her tenure at HP and that it's everyone else's fault.
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So because ms fiorina said it, should her clinton claims be ignored? Because other people have said and will say it.
 
I have no qualms with that line of attack. The Clintons have always acted like basic rules don't apply to them. That's simply a fact. If anything concerns me about a Clinton presidency it's the almost assured guarantee that someone will do something stupid and potentially cost her re-election.
 
Hillary sure has the attitude of someone snooty and pompous, but the charges against her seem pretty baseless. What is so nefarious and evil about the shit right-wingers are bitching about?
 
If el yebe had a private server and was deleting thousands of emails in his home that would be a talking point for some on the left as well. There isnt anything nefarious going on, just politics.
 
Retromelon said:
If el yebe had a private server and was deleting thousands of emails in his home that would be a talking point for some on the left as well. There isnt anything nefarious going on, just politics.
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Didn't he actually do that though? I seem to remember some kind of e-mail flub from el yebe that lasted all of 20 minutes.
 
B-Dubs said:
Didn't he actually do that though? I seem to remember some kind of e-mail flub from el yebe that lasted all of 20 minutes.
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Jeb! did kind of the opposite, actually. He released all of the emails he received as governor, without taking the time to scrub out potentially damaging information, like, say, people's names, addresses, and social security numbers.
 
Clinton corruption isn't D.C. corruption like say, the Reagan/Bush Administrations were filled with. Clinton corruption is old timey local machine politics corruption driven to a national level. Tammany Hall, Pendergrast, Cook County, Huey Long, etc.

It's comparatively small level, but relatively endless, amounts of graft, record destroying, a "culture" that leads to minor things looking bigger than they are because of the cover ups of all sorts of small level corruption, etc. vs. major level scandal like Iran-Contra. That's why the GOP blundered with the impeachment, perjury and obstruction of justice ain't no thing when the "crime" is so small.

Like the FBI files, or the pardons, or stuff surrounding Cisneros, or the Chinese fundraising, or the Clintons taking White House gifts as personal property. It adds up, and when they try to cover it up, it looks worse than it probably is, like with the e-mails. Or the Lewinsky affair. But ultimately, independently, none of it is big enough to get a rise out of anyone.

Ironically, this is why so much of it gets prosecuted in comparison. It's why Libby got tagged on unrelated charges in the investigation, while the actual Plame "leaker", Richard Holbrooke, had nothing happen to him.
 
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