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[gutter_trash]

I know Hillary is the presumptive nominee and all that, but why isn't she being aggressive about what she believes and stands for? It's like we know she's campaigning from the sidelines and her opponents talking to her.

when men fight back, they are being tough
when women fight back, they are being emotional

she knows what she is doing

 

[ivysaur12]

Curbelo's district is already pretty swingy though so even if it just adds a few Democrats they shouldn't have any problem picking it up.

I think Democrats are also supposed to expect to pick up a seat from the Virginia map changes - between those two states remapping and all the fluke GOP seats won in 2014 I bet they could easily pick up 20 seats if Hillary's winning by a decent margin. Say five points or so.

God it would be great if she could even squeeze out a bare majority in the House - it would probably be enough to pass immigration reform.

It really depends on what the SCOFL accepts, but my guess is that since they've already proven suspect of the legislature's maps, it would probably be a map that gives a 2-3 seat pickup to the Dems, depending on the year. Same with Virginia. We're just going to need to see what the map is. But let's say it's 5 seats in play.

Then there are 10 more seats that Larry Sabato rates at "toss-ups" currently held by Republicans, versus only 3 for Democrats. That's 15 legitimate targets for the Dems. That'd put them at 203.

So let's add the states that Sabato says are "Leans Republican". That's 8.

211.

You still need 7 more seats, and then you start getting into unfriendlier territory, like taking out Don Young, Jackie Walorski... Though there are some like Elise Stefanisk who are from an PVI EVEN district that are in Likely Republican which should be good targets.

Either way, it's doable, but the margin of error is impossibly thin.

 

[Black Mamba]

From the NYtimes on republican budget plans


I seriously am flabergasted that this stuff gets them elected. Its like a laundry list of evil things, how is this party electible? Its scary that cultural predudice have been so well co-opted that this stuff can be brushed under the table

Because 90% of voters don't know about any of this.

It really to them is about specific issues and overall opinions in generalities...ie: GOP is for smaller gov't, less intrusion, Dems for more gov't more intrusion!

It's why when you poll policies, Dems have huge supports on most issues. But they don't win elections.

You can't look at it through our prism. We care about politics. We inform ourselves. Most people do not.

The electorate is ignorant. And I have no fucking clue how to fix that.

 

[Plinko]

http://news.yahoo.com/walkers-budget-passes-though-most-gop-opposition-hes-162221297--politics.html

AP article on Scott Walker's budget:

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker hoped a larger Republican majority in his state's Legislature would lead to the quick and smooth passage of a budget, a perfect kickoff to his all-but-announced campaign for president.

Instead, the spending plan landed on his desk a week late bearing the most 'no' votes his budgets have ever received from GOP lawmakers, who derided his original $73 billion spending plan as "crap."

Republicans who voted against the budget cited a variety of concerns with the far-reaching legislation that lays out Walker's priorities for state funding over the next two years. They said it didn't spend enough on K-12 schools, would borrow too much for road construction and they objected to repealing a law setting minimum salaries for construction workers on local government projects. Their lukewarm reception isn't the kind of momentum Walker's had hoped for heading into the launch of his presidential bid Monday.

Republicans actually said it didn't spend enough on K-12 schools. REPUBLICANS.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Grayson already saying stupid things

"Frankly, one reason why Democrats are willing to crawl over hot coals naked to vote for me is because I'm willing to tell the truth," he told NBC in an interview.

He's pledged to make income inequality and other progressive priorities a focus of his bid. And Grayson told NBC he'd like to make eliminating the income tax for the poorest Americans a key priority. But he seemed more reluctant to tackle the tax rate for top income-earners like himself.

"One way that you could try to address [income inequality] is through the tax system, but that doesn't necessarily mean that you tax people who make more money more," he said.

"At the top end, it's a complicated situation," he added. "I can tell you, in fact, there are repercussions and second order effects that come from modifying the tax rates at the top."

BTW murphy supports increasing social security

 

[ivysaur12]

POLLS!:

http://b.3cdn.net/maj2012/478e1b4398ada12185_lom6bxqv5.pdf

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that a recent barrage of ads attacking New

Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan hasn’t had much impact- she remains more popular
than Senator Kelly Ayotte and a race for Senate between the two continues to look like a
sheer toss up.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Hassan leads Ayotte 45/44 in a head to head, numbers that are almost identical to PPP’s
last survey of New Hampshire in April that found Hassan leading 46/45. Hassan has a
substantial advantage with women (54/35), and edges Ayotte among the state’s critical
independent voters at 42/40.

-Hassan continues to be more popular than Ayotte. 50% of voters approve of the job
she’s doing to 42% who disapprove. By contrast just 46% approve of Ayotte, with 43%
disapproving of her.

POLLS 2: ELECTRIC POLLGALOO!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/07/mccrory-approval-hits-new-low-1.html

For a second month in a row Roy Cooper leads McCrory by a narrow margin, 43/41. Although a plurality of North Carolinians (45%) don't know enough about Cooper to have an opinion about him one way or the other he's popular among those who do with 36% rating him favorably to 20% with an unfavorable opinion. Legislative sessions have not been good for McCrory's approval numbers over the years but he has generally recovered from them within a few months after the honorables go home. Time will tell whether McCrory regains the modest advantage he had over Cooper before the last few months.

Richard Burr continues to have middling approval numbers- only 28% of voters give him good marks to 39% who disapprove. He also continues to have substantial leads over all of the potential Democratic opponents we tested against him though. He's up anywhere from 8 to 14 points over the six people we tested against him. Former Congressman Heath Shuler comes the closest with an 8 point deficit at 44/36. Former Congressman Mike McIntyre is down 9 at 44/35, former Congressman Brad Miller and State Senator Dan Blue are down 10 at 46/36 and 45/35 respectively, State Auditor Beth Wood trails by 11 at 45/34, and State Representative Grier Martin lags by 14 at 47/33.

Weird they didn't poll Janet Cowell or Anthony Foxx.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Because 90% of voters don't know about any of this.

It really to them is about specific issues and overall opinions in generalities...ie: GOP is for smaller gov't, less intrusion, Dems for more gov't more intrusion!

It's why when you poll policies, Dems have huge supports on most issues. But they don't win elections.

You can't look at it through our prism. We care about politics. We inform ourselves. Most people do not.

The electorate is ignorant. And I have no fucking clue how to fix that.

Money, my dear boy. More money for schools, mostly (AP government level classes should really be mandatory), but definitely money for advertising too.

Also, Dems really need to start punching below the belt in areas other than identity politics. "This guy wants to FUCK OVER YOUR CHILDREN" reads a lot better than "this guy supports lower spending on schools."

 

[eBay Huckster]

Grayson already saying stupid things




BTW murphy supports increasing social security

...yeah I might actually donate money to Murphy's campaign just so this shitstain can't win the primary

 

[ivysaur12]

...yeah I might actually donate money to Murphy's campaign just so this shitstain can't win the primary

I literally just did. Grayson is the worst.

 

[Jackson50]

http://news.yahoo.com/walkers-budget-passes-though-most-gop-opposition-hes-162221297--politics.html

AP article on Scott Walker's budget:



Republicans actually said it didn't spend enough on K-12 schools. REPUBLICANS.

We need to cut education to compensate for property tax cuts. Wut?

I know Hillary is the presumptive nominee and all that, but why isn't she being aggressive about what she believes and stands for? It's like we know she's campaigning from the sidelines and her opponents talking to her.

The election's not for another 16 months. There's no need for Clinton to engage her opponents. She'll win the nomination, and then she can campaign. Aggressiveness at this stage would waste time and energy. The presidential campaign is a marathon. If you're prematurely aggressive, you will exhaust yourself before crossing the finish line. Clinton should fundraise, build her campaign, throw the occasional jab, and watch as the Republicans cannibalize themselves.

 

[Macho Madness]

There's also this thing where none of the Democratic candidates NEED to make any noise right now. Every one of them will be on the debate stage, while Republicans have to compete at a national level with each other right now to even be considered an actual candidate. It's nuts, but it's the truth. One of the things a struggling GOP candidate might try to do to gain poll numbers is attack Hillary.

Let them fight it out, looking like the clown show they are. Seems to be working so far.

 

[Coriolanus]

To those that still have an interest in the greek crisis.

The left wing government, after the referendum that gave them ample popular support to reject harsh bailout conditions, just sent to the EU a proposal that is the equivalent of... a democrat prez trying to get a law that would abolish medicare passed. And skullfuck social security to boot.

#strangetimes

 

[ivysaur12]

To those that still have an interest in the greek crisis.

The left wing government, after the referendum that gave them ample popular support to reject harsh bailout conditions, just sent to the EU a proposal that is the equivalent of... a democrat prez trying to get a law that would abolish medicare passed. And skullfuck social security to boot.

#strangetimes

It's pretty insane, isn't it? What was the purpose of the referendum then?

 

[Coriolanus]

It's pretty insane, isn't it? What was the purpose of the referendum then?

¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[Poodlestrike]

To those that still have an interest in the greek crisis.

The left wing government, after the referendum that gave them ample popular support to reject harsh bailout conditions, just sent to the EU a proposal that is the equivalent of... a democrat prez trying to get a law that would abolish medicare passed. And skullfuck social security to boot.

#strangetimes

Oy vey.

Am I crazy, or is the Eurozone just not working out so well? No monetary policy control makes it too easy for high power nations to lean on low power ones.

 

[ivysaur12]

Oy vey.

Am I crazy, or is the Eurozone just not working out so well? No monetary policy control makes it too easy for high power nations to lean on low power ones.

I'm not that well versed on Eurozone fiscal policy, but it feels as if the idea of a "union" shouldn't be that Germany and other stronger nations reap the benefits of such a financial union while other nations struggle with little control on their own fiscal policy?

 

[Poodlestrike]

I'm not that well versed on Eurozone fiscal policy, but it feels as if the idea of a "union" shouldn't be that Germany and other stronger nations reap the benefits of such a financial union while other nations struggle with little control on their own fiscal policy?

Pretty much my (very limited) understanding as well. All of the lack of control of a federal system, none of the unconditional support.

 

[jamesinclair]

Just subscribing to find all the Bernie haters in the past few pages. I hope he raises your taxes.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

To those that still have an interest in the greek crisis.

The left wing government, after the referendum that gave them ample popular support to reject harsh bailout conditions, just sent to the EU a proposal that is the equivalent of... a democrat prez trying to get a law that would abolish medicare passed. And skullfuck social security to boot.

#strangetimes

I think its clear he didn't expect/want to win

I seriously can't believe how much Europe is obsessed with screwing over the poor to preserve the elite

 

[NeoXChaos]

Just subscribing to find all the Bernie haters in the past few pages. I hope he raises your taxes.

He will certainly raise my taxes.........when it gets on Hillary's desk to sign into law. x)

 

[Coriolanus]

I think its clear he didn't expect/want to win

I seriously can't believe how much Europe is obsessed with screwing over the poor to preserve the elite

Now now, parts of Europe are perfectly happy with helping the poor, provided that the smelly bastards happen to be from the same country as your own.

I'm kinda looking at it as "What happens if you truly try to follow some cray States Rights theory". I mean, is mostly stuff coming down from the lack of a strong central government and an yuropean identity. Ain't no way them sovereigns will abdicate even more power in the short term after this mess.

And yet there are some tiny ass satellite bastards that wanna get in on dat monetary union. Maaan, enjoy your brain drain.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Just subscribing to find all the Bernie haters in the past few pages. I hope he raises your taxes.

joke's on you I'm moving to a place that's even more socialistic

 

[Aaron Strife]

It really depends on what the SCOFL accepts, but my guess is that since they've already proven suspect of the legislature's maps, it would probably be a map that gives a 2-3 seat pickup to the Dems, depending on the year. Same with Virginia. We're just going to need to see what the map is. But let's say it's 5 seats in play.

Then there are 10 more seats that Larry Sabato rates at "toss-ups" currently held by Republicans, versus only 3 for Democrats. That's 15 legitimate targets for the Dems. That'd put them at 203.

So let's add the states that Sabato says are "Leans Republican". That's 8.

211.

You still need 7 more seats, and then you start getting into unfriendlier territory, like taking out Don Young, Jackie Walorski... Though there are some like Elise Stefanisk who are from an PVI EVEN district that are in Likely Republican which should be good targets.

Either way, it's doable, but the margin of error is impossibly thin.

Yeah. 15 is probably more accurate.

Just have to hold out hope for those Hillary landslide poll numbers to hold, otherwise.

 

[sc0la]

To those that still have an interest in the greek crisis.

The left wing government, after the referendum that gave them ample popular support to reject harsh bailout conditions, just sent to the EU a proposal that is the equivalent of... a democrat prez trying to get a law that would abolish medicare passed. And skullfuck social security to boot.

#strangetimes

This blew my mind. It's like, ask for debt relief and less austerity. Instead they presented basically what they had been fighting this whole time.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Clinton and Bush were together today. W said he wont be a surrogate and that Jeb and Hillary will "elevate the discourse". I wonder how rosy their relationship will be if their wife and brother tear each other apart. I think a Hillary and Jeb race could be interesting if the candidates dont go negative and actually debate the issues over their partisan surrogates.

 

[Coriolanus]

I think a Hillary and Jeb race could be interesting if the candidates dont go negative and actually debate the issues over their partisan surrogates.

Ain't no chance in hell republicans won't run negative ads. Base would see it as a sign of weakness.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah. 15 is probably more accurate.

Just have to hold out hope for those Hillary landslide poll numbers to hold, otherwise.

Yeah, you'd need to be hoping she'd pull up R+3 districts and then that everything else goes smoothly. Tall order.

 

[ivysaur12]

It seems to me -- from reading this that their wordage was deliberate, which makes me wonder if "ADJOURN UNTIL THE CALL OF THE SPKR AND PRES" is what they mean by "at ease" versus adjourned because it allows them to be called back for the same session?

Yup, this is exactly it.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/559de642e4b05b1d028fb5fe?

The issue appears to be the meaning and context of the word "adjourned."
The legislature routinely uses the word "adjourn" for a temporary recess and it does not always mean the final adjournment of a session, The Portland Press Herald reports. The state's House of Representatives even uses the term "adjourn" at the end of each work day.

The governor's office insists that the state legislature's use of the word "adjourn" to end its session on June 30 means the adjournment rules are in effect and the bills should be vetoed.

“I can’t even process this right now, that this is his latest move,” House Majority Leader Jeff McCabe (D) told the Bangor Daily News. “It’s very clear, as far as the role the governor has, when it comes to bills -- whether he signs them, not signs them or vetoes them. To hold them for an arbitrary period of time doesn’t really work. He can’t rewrite the rules.

Along with the asylum bill, the new laws include an act that would prevent the shackling of pregnant prisoners, an act to ban e-cigarettes in many places that already have smoking bans and changes to the state's "spruce budworm management laws."The issue may have to be decided in court.

“We’ll go to the courts and we’ll ask them,” LePage told the Press Herald. “It’s in the Constitution . . . It’s very clear – very, very clear. Even I can understand it and I’m French.”

But opponents say what's clear this time is that LePage messed up.

“There’s a huge hole in Gov. Paul LePage’s pocket, and a bunch of bills just fell through, handing his opponents and the Legislature huge victories,” Democratic consultant David Farmer told the Bangor Daily News.

The Maine House Clerk has some pretty compelling evidence.

 

[NeoXChaos]

@Laryy Sabato: Go back to Perot '92 voter profile. Similarities to current Trump backers. If Trump runs as
a ind. in fall '16, GOP in deep trouble.

"The more Trump is humiliated and forced to swallow $$ losses, the more likely he'll say, "I'll show them..."

Yes. Keep making trump mad. If Jeb is the nominee. I actually believe he will certainly go through with it. Trump cant stand the Bush's

 

[RustyNails]

I just dont see the need for Hillary to inject herself into the media while the Republican trainwreck is taking place with Trump. She should wait it out and let the circus leave town.

 

[NeoXChaos]

That's good! (even if it costs my team some seats, less gerrymandered districts is a good thing for the political process as a whole)



That's bad!



I thought the poli-sci consensus was that Perot pulled roughly equally from Clinton 42's and Bush 41's voting bases ... so a Perot-style candidate wouldn't really bias the election one way or the other.

idk. Maybe larry knows something we dont. He most certainly would be pulling votes from the Republican nominee based on his rhetoric I guess.

 

[B-Dubs]

I just dont see the need for Hillary to inject herself into the media while the Republican trainwreck is taking place with Trump. She should wait it out and let the circus leave town.

This is exactly what she should do. If she comes out and says anything it allowed the GOP contenders to refocus their attacks on her instead of running around and reacting to every little thing Trump says or does. There's plenty of time to campaign and she doesn't need to raise her national profile so there's no reason for her to get involved right now.

 

[Retromelon]

Idk what to do i took that political survey in ot and it said i side with ben carson the most on foreign policy and now i have ben carson banner ads

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

That's good! (even if it costs my team some seats, less gerrymandered districts is a good thing for the political process as a whole)



That's bad!



I thought the poli-sci consensus was that Perot pulled roughly equally from Clinton 42's and Bush 41's voting bases ... so a Perot-style candidate wouldn't really bias the election one way or the other.

Exit polling confirmed this, but it was a popular right-wing talking point to delegitimatize Clinton after he won.

 

[RustyNails]

Idk what to do i took that political survey in ot and it said i side with ben carson the most on foreign policy and now i have ben carson banner ads

You have no reason to complain

 

[Retromelon]

Jelly. At least trump brings the lulz
Carson brings the snores

 

[Jackson50]

I thought the poli-sci consensus was that Perot pulled roughly equally from Clinton 42's and Bush 41's voting bases ... so a Perot-style candidate wouldn't really bias the election one way or the other.

Correct. Perot did not spoil the election. The plurality of his supporters were those already disengaged from politics. They would not have supported Bush or Clinton, and most of them would have completely abstained from voting. Perot actually increased voter turnout by a few percentage points. Otherwise, Perot attracted support from across the political spectrum. The notion that Perot spoiled the election for Bush is false.

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't see Trump running as an Independent. I'm still suspicious he'll make it to Iowa.

 

[B-Dubs]

I don't see Trump running as an Independent. I'm still suspicious he'll make it to Iowa.

It depends on how Trump exits the primary race. If he's forced out by the other candidates ganging up on him he will absolutely run as an independent. If he never even comes close to claiming a primary win and leaves in disgrace he won't run.

 

[ivysaur12]

Also, on this quote from Lindsay Graham is something else:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/u...can-party-debate.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes

“As a presidential candidate, he’s taking a problem we already have as a party and making it worse,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, another White House aspirant. “If we continue this we’re going to accelerate the demographic death spiral we’re in.”

It's a spiral entirely of the party's own making. This is something that Barry Goldwater had been working on since the Southern Strategy first began. Years of rhetoric and fear mongering doesn't go away in a blink of an eye. The Republicans traded short term electoral gains for a potentially unstoppable demographic destruction of their party.

Even in key Southern states, the white vote is dwindling. Winning 100% of whites won't help. But that's the bed you lie in. And saying "lol jk" doesn't work, and it doesn't change tone in a blink of an eye. Trump polling at 16% in the primary tells you all you need to know about the party's internal turmoil.

 

[Rhomega Beta]

With so many Republican candidates running, Fox News doesn't have enough ad time to promote them all.

WASHINGTON (AP) - It's the stuff of Republican nightmares: Fox News runs out of advertising time.

But in an election bursting with money from an expected 17 Republican presidential candidates and dozens of outside groups supporting them, NCC Media, the company that handles placement of political ads for most of the country's cable systems, is already working out the puzzle of how to accommodate everyone.

"Fox is a revenue driver," said Tim Kay, NCC's director of political strategy. "It's extremely popular as the way to reach Republican primary voters." He added: "What we're waiting to see is, is everyone going to want Fox News, or are they branching out to different channels to try to capture some of those same demographics?"

It's not just Fox News. Broadcast stations in the early primary voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are preparing for a 2016 onslaught - which they welcome, because presidential ads boost their bottom lines every four years.

For television viewers? Welcome back to campaign season.

If you live in New Hampshire or Iowa, you're already seeing the smiling faces of at least four Republican presidential candidates. Beginning Thursday, Ohio Gov. John Kasich will be talking in a commercial about how he learned from his father, "Do your best to look out for other people."

The ad, which costs about $1 million to broadcast across New Hampshire, was paid for by New Day for America, an outside group backing the governor, who has yet to make his candidacy official.

Ex-Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, both declared GOP presidential candidates, have been introducing themselves to Iowans thanks to ads put up by outside groups helping them. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's campaign put a small run of commercials on the air soon after he announced his candidacy in late March.

All of this with the nation's first primary contest, in Iowa, more than 200 days away.

Still, early advertising gets the candidates better known and can help presidential aspirants who are struggling near the bottom of the pack, said Will Feltus, a media researcher and planner at National Media who worked on George W. Bush's two presidential elections.

"There's a perception that you're not real until you're on television," Feltus said. "TV has a very positive effect on supporters, on donors and on potential donors."

No one in the 2016 GOP class has focused on TV more than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, whose campaign has placed orders for more than $12 million in ads that would start at the end of this year and air in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early primary states.

"We raise money for one simple reason," Rubio told The Associated Press while campaigning Wednesday in Iowa. "And that is to be able to pay for an organization that can deliver our message, and also be able to buy access and airtime to be able to communicate with voters."

Rubio is also getting a TV assist from a nonprofit policy group that keeps its donors secret. Conservative Solutions Project spent more than $3 million on commercials on national cable. Its ad focuses on the "bad deal" that President Barack Obama's administration is negotiating with Iran on nuclear weapons. "Sen. Marco Rubio is fighting to stop it," the narrator says.

It's on - you guessed it - Fox News.

The news outlet sucks up more political advertising spots than any other channel, NCC data show, and Republican primary elections drive that tally. CNN follows, then NBC, CBS and ABC. A study by the Pew Research Center helps to illustrate why: It found that 47 percent of conservatives consider Fox News their main and only news source, and 88 percent of them trust it.

While three-fourth of all political commercials in the last presidential election were on cable, broadcast reaches far more viewers and accounts for the majority of the estimated $3 billion that political candidates and groups, from the president down to town sheriff, spent on ads in 2012.

The political interest in cable ballooned in popularity after Obama's 2008 campaign used viewership data to reach small groups of voters in critical locations - for example, college kids watching MTV at night in Columbus, Ohio.

"Cable fits with the overall trend of campaigns to target particular kinds of voters," said Travis Ridout, a co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which analyzes election advertising, including the $3 billion in 2012 spending.

But unlike local news broadcasts with their bounty of advertising time available to politicians, cable offers just a couple of minutes per hour for those seeking to pipe an election message to a specific geographic location.

"There's only one problem," Ridout said. "There's not enough to go around."

i saw that Marco Rubio commercial earlier today. It's rather lengthy, about a minute long it seems.

 

[Oblivion]

Be still my beating heart! As if da DONALD couldn't help Democrats more, he comes out with this gem:

Not that long ago, Trump was an outspoken skeptic about whether Obama was born in the United States.

Now, he insists he's not really interested in talking about the issue.

"Honestly, I don't want to get into it," Trump said. "I'm about jobs, I'm about the military, I'm about doing the right thing for this country."

But to be clear, Trump is still not totally convinced that Obama was born in the country.

"I don't know. I really don't know," he said. "I don't know why he wouldn't release his records."

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/08/polit...ers/index.html?sr=tw070915trump11pVODtopPhoto

 

[pigeon]

Get ready to tell your kids about the Trump presidency of 2016.

And by "get ready to tell your kids" I mean start working on those oral tradition skills, because literacy will be gone after the nuclear war.

 

[pigeon]

Also, Bloomberg View on how electable the electable GOP candidates actually are:

Six of the Republican contenders (Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, and Rick Perry) are from states that are reliably red—and have never faced electorates that would have the partisan distribution they would encounter in purple states. Two of them (Ben Carson and Donald Trump) have never ever faced any electorate whatsoever and one (Carly Fiorina) ran and lost in a blue state.

Five (Jeb Bush, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker) have won statewide elections in purple states, and three GOP contestants have won statewide contests in blue states (Chris Christie, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum).

But, even for those purple and blue state winners, presidential year electorates are fundamentally different than mid-term electorates. Presidential electorates are less white, younger, and more Democratic than mid-term electorates. And only one of the eight candidates who have previously won in blue or purple states has ever run statewide in a presidential election year. Jim Gilmore ran for Senate in Virginia in 2008 and lost by more than 30 percentage points. In fact, according to my calculations, of the 40 elections that the 17 announced or soon to announce GOP candidates have collectively run in at the state level (not all of them wins), only five of those contests were in presidential election years—Cruz was elected in Texas in 2012, Gilmore lost in Virginia in 2008, Graham won re-election in South Carolina in 2008, Santorum was re-elected in Pennsylvania in 2000, and Huckabee lost the Arkansas Senate race in 1992. None of the other 12 candidates has ever faced statewide voters in a presidential election year.

This means that even candidates who’ve won in battleground states face significant hurdles. For example, Rubio won election to the Senate in 2010 in an electorate which, according to the exit polls, was 71 percent white, and in which Republicans enjoyed a four percentage point (40 percent to 36 percent) advantage in party identification. In 2012, the Florida electorate was 67 percent white and Republicans suffered from a two-percentage-point deficit in partisan identifiers (33 percent to 35 percent). Looking at the voter file in Florida, of the approximately four million registered voters who vote in just about every election, Republicans have a five-percentage-point advantage. But among the three million-plus registered voters who vote only in presidential elections, Democrats have a six-percentage-point advantage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...ker-and-kasich-are-not-as-purple-as-they-look

Backpats to Ed Kilgore.

 

[thepotatoman]

You know how the radical conservatives tend to split up the vote between each other while the moderate benifits from being the only moderate in the race? I feel like Trump is finding a way to be the only radicle in the field by making everyone else seem like moderates in comparison.

Sad thing is, policy-wise. the difference between Trump and Bush isn't really that different, and Trump might actually be more moderate in some aspects. Only thing making him a radical is him replacing the dog whistle with a racist whistle everyone can hear.

 

[RustyNails]

I don't see Trump running as an Independent. I'm still suspicious he'll make it to Iowa.

Trump will definitely run as independent if RNC burns him. Never underestimate a rich and petty man's hubris.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Also, on this quote from Lindsay Graham is something else:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/u...can-party-debate.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes



It's a spiral entirely of the party's own making. This is something that Barry Goldwater had been working on since the Southern Strategy first began. Years of rhetoric and fear mongering doesn't go away in a blink of an eye. The Republicans traded short term electoral gains for a potentially unstoppable demographic destruction of their party.

Even in key Southern states, the white vote is dwindling. Winning 100% of whites won't help. But that's the bed you lie in. And saying "lol jk" doesn't work, and it doesn't change tone in a blink of an eye. Trump polling at 16% in the primary tells you all you need to know about the party's internal turmoil.

Yeah, if only Donald Trump would ease up on immigration, then our problems with minorities would go away!

 

[RustyNails]

Also I can't help but laugh at Bob McDonnell watching the 2016 election from his prison cell. He was a GOP runaway frontrunner this election but he just had to put his dick in other people's cookie jars. Slimeball.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Michael Cannon is still salty over King:

Obamacare supporters are mistaken if they think the Supreme Court's King v. Burwell ruling settles the issue. Even in defeat, King threatens Obamacare's survival, because it exposes Obamacare as an illegitimate law.

Say what you will about the Affordable Care Act. Democrats passed it in haste. In desperation. Without knowing what was in it. With no bipartisan support. By one vote. In the dead of night. Over public opposition. Using lies. With disdain for "the stupidity of the American voter." Still, barring some constitutional defect, the ACA as enacted was the law of the land.

Yet President Obama and the Supreme Court now have amended the ACA to the point where it has been transformed into something no Congress ever enacted — indeed that no Congress ever had the votes to enact. The executive and the judiciary have effectively repealed the ACA and replaced it with "Obamacare," which enjoys no such legitimacy.

...

By overriding the operative language of the statute, the Supreme Court colluded with the president to impose taxes and entitlements that no Congress ever approved; to deprive states of powers Congress granted them to block parts of the ACA; and to disenfranchise Republican and independent voters who swept ACA opponents into state office in 2009, 2010 and 2011 for the purpose of blocking the ACA.

The Supreme Court did not lose its legitimacy with King v. Burwell — it has made worse mistakes. Obamacare did. Having been rewritten over and over by the president and the Supreme Court rather than Congress, Obamacare cannot claim to be a legitimate law.

I agree that the Court got it wrong, but c'mon, dude. This is just sore losing.

 

[Macho Madness]

So it's possible the GOP has a way to keep Trump off the debate stage:

Conservatives hoping to keep Donald "I beat China all the time" Trump from turning the first Republican presidential debate into a complete circus might just get their wish. Either that, or they’ve just given the business mogul and former reality TV star another reason to stick around well into the fall, if not beyond.

The Washington Post is reporting that Fox News has clarified the criteria for participation in the first GOP debate in such a way that Donald "Stay and we keep the oil" Trump and most of his fellow candidates will have to file their personal financial disclosures before the debate or be kept off the stage. That’s unlikely to be a serious problem for the vast majority of the GOP field, but it will back Donald "Stay and we keep the oil" Trump into a corner.

"As we have said from the beginning, part of that criteria involves filing 'all necessary paperwork with the [Federal Election Commission],'" Fox News vice president Michael Clemente said in a statement. "The FEC, as is well known, requires that presidential candidates file a financial disclosure statement as part of that paperwork." Under federal law, presidential candidates have 30 days from when they officially launch their campaigns to file. But candidates can, and often do, request and receive as many as two 45-day extensions—something most Donald "I am the least racist person" Trump watchers believed he would do as way to prolong his campaign without giving the world a closer look at his finances. While Clemente’s statement didn’t explicitly say candidates couldn’t use those extensions, the Post’s sources say that will indeed be the case. "They must fill out the form, putting the dollars and cents on the table, before they step on the debate stage," one source told the paper.