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Monitoring the situation in Iran

Iran can target that airstrip with it's missiles, and it will go down. they can shoot 500 missiles towards it and it won't have enough air defenses against that.

Taking your enemy as dumb was the mistake Israel made on 10/7.


Delusional. You really think 10/7 was some victory. Unbelievable. Iran's nuke program was targeted and Iran couldn't even respond properly, couldn't launch a single fighter aircraft or mobilize anything meanwhile the US and Israel could fly over their homeland at will. They were embarrassed, reduced to launching missiles. If anything, it showed Iran was even weaker than we thought, much weaker.
 
Delusional. You really think 10/7 was some victory. Unbelievable. Iran's nuke program was targeted and Iran couldn't even respond properly, couldn't launch a single fighter aircraft or mobilize anything meanwhile the US and Israel could fly over their homeland at will. They were embarrassed, reduced to launching missiles. If anything, it showed Iran was even weaker than we thought, much weaker.
I didn't say it was a victory, I said it happened because entitled people underestimated their enemy. Every agency in Israel thought Hamas is not looking to make trouble.

While Iran couldn't do much in the air, like I said they targeted missiles and they did hit. They can destroy a carrier if they want to with their missiles.
 
How many missiles did Iran fire at Israel during that air war. How many actually got through.

Surely a fast pre-emptive strike could knock out alot of their launchers could retaliate.

It was the biggest surprise of the last strikes for me that the US didn't use any of its GBU-57A on the ballistic missile storage mountains. If they do go again these have got to be the first things hit this time surely?
 
I didn't say it was a victory, I said it happened because entitled people underestimated their enemy. Every agency in Israel thought Hamas is not looking to make trouble.

While Iran couldn't do much in the air, like I said they targeted missiles and they did hit. They can destroy a carrier if they want to with their missiles.

Its just silly. All they did was launch volleys of endless missiles. I would wager 1960s Iran could get a few missiles through. Its not a testament to anything they did well. If anything, we overestimated them, so I don't agree with your assessment on even the most basic level. Destroying a carrier is much different and you obviously don't know anything about what that takes. Its waaaay more well defended than you think. I'll bet you don't even know the specifics of Iranian missiles, you're just saying things because you have feelings about it.
 
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Delusional. You really think 10/7 was some victory. Unbelievable. Iran's nuke program was targeted and Iran couldn't even respond properly, couldn't launch a single fighter aircraft or mobilize anything meanwhile the US and Israel could fly over their homeland at will. They were embarrassed, reduced to launching missiles. If anything, it showed Iran was even weaker than we thought, much weaker.
I do wonder what caused Iran to have absolutely zero defense from the air threats. Surely they did not think that just using missiles were enough? They launched a lot year ago, during the 12 day war and still even if they have some I doubt their stockpiles are even matching the previous launches, considering how many platforms and launch sites were destroyed. I don't think they are that fast to replenish.

All in all, I am very curious how it is going to look like.
 
Is it just me, or is NeoGAF's responsiveness intermittent? It feels randomly sluggish.

Anyways, I'd like to take the moment to emphasize that Israel is still led by Benjamin Netanyahu, a known war hawk who was more than excited to attack Iran last year and fuck up their nuclear facilities, turned most of Gaza into barren rubble, and is still actively engaged with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

He is currently urging restraint with regard to Iran.

Its just silly. All they did was launch volleys of endless missiles. I would wager 1960s Iran could get a few missiles through. Its not a testament to anything they did well. If anything, we overestimated them, so I don't agree with your assessment on even the most basic level. Destroying a carrier is much different and you obviously don't know anything about what that takes. Its waaaay more well defended than you think. I'll bet you don't even know the specifics of Iranian missiles, you're just saying things because you have feelings about it.
The Houthis got a missile uncomfortably close to hitting the Eisenhower a few years ago in the Red Sea. They also forced the Truman to do evasive maneuvers that lended to an incident where an F-18 fell off said carrier last year, which suggests that the missile wasn't detected until it was fairly close. As incredible as Arleigh Burke destroyers are, they aren't infallible. Radar ducting is a problem in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, and while we have software and modeling to try and counter that problem, it's far from perfect.

I can appreciate talking up American firepower because I've come to its defense in the Venezuela thread a bit ago. But we're not invulnerable, and Iran is capable of doing real damage.
 
The Houthis got a missile uncomfortably close to hitting the Eisenhower a few years ago in the Red Sea. They also forced the Truman to do evasive maneuvers that lended to an incident where an F-18 fell off said carrier last year, which suggests that the missile wasn't detected until it was fairly close. As incredible as Arleigh Burke destroyers are, they aren't infallible. Radar ducting is a problem in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, and while we have software and modeling to try and counter that problem, it's far from perfect.

I can appreciate talking up American firepower because I've come to its defense in the Venezuela thread a bit ago. But we're not invulnerable, and Iran is capable of doing real damage.


One missile out of all the ones they've launched getting "close" is embarrassingly ineffective. The facts of that missile splash are unknown. We don't know if part of a damaged missile splashed close or it tumbled and malfunctioned. We know out of all the missiles fired a US carriers ever in history, zero have landed.

And the evasive from a hornet? The loss of the F-18 during Truman maneuvering does not imply late detection, because carrier strike groups routinely detect launches far beyond visual or weapon range and may still maneuver aggressively to reduce risk while layered defenses engage. Evasive turns can be ordered even with early warning due to uncertain missile trajectories, salvo attacks, or to complicate targeting, not because the threat suddenly appeared at close range.

Neither are good examples of Iran being effective. Of course its an engagement and they are absolutely being shot at so its not like something you just ignore but the main problem here is perspective.

We're looking at conflicts and surgical strikes without taking the gloves off. What I'm talking about if a full scale attack were we actually go after them in force like the first or even second gulf war. This is incredibly different.

In reality considering all the minor engagements the US military has had and been sitting near their weapons systems, you would think there would be 10x more incidents. It's not about talking up American military, its just massively superior. No need to apologize for that.

The other thing is even if carriers get hit, they're designed to take multiple impacts and keep fighting. The other huge problem in American doctrine is the more damage you do to them, they respond with even more overwhelming force.
 
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Is it just me, or is NeoGAF's responsiveness intermittent? It feels randomly sluggish.
I wonder if it is related to a thing that sometimes I do not get notifications from the updated topics.

The Houthis got a missile uncomfortably close to hitting the Eisenhower a few years ago in the Red Sea. They also forced the Truman to do evasive maneuvers that lended to an incident where an F-18 fell off said carrier last year, which suggests that the missile wasn't detected until it was fairly close. As incredible as Arleigh Burke destroyers are, they aren't infallible. Radar ducting is a problem in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, and while we have software and modeling to try and counter that problem, it's far from perfect.
Personally I feel like it was more due to either incompetence or being too relaxed, not taking them seriously enough. Like when you shoot some stuff and then just chill.
 
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One missile out of all the ones they've launched getting "close" is embarrassingly ineffective. The facts of that missile splash are unknown. We don't know if part of a damaged missile splashed close or it tumbled and malfunctioned. We know out of all the missiles fired a US carriers ever in history, zero have landed.

And the evasive from a hornet? The loss of the F-18 during Truman maneuvering does not imply late detection, because carrier strike groups routinely detect launches far beyond visual or weapon range and may still maneuver aggressively to reduce risk while layered defenses engage. Evasive turns can be ordered even with early warning due to uncertain missile trajectories, salvo attacks, or to complicate targeting, not because the threat suddenly appeared at close range.

Neither are good examples of Iran being effective. Of course its an engagement and they are absolutely being shot at so its not like something you just ignore but the main problem here is perspective.

We're looking at conflicts and surgical strikes without taking the gloves off. What I'm talking about if a full scale attack were we actually go after them in force like the first or even second gulf war. This is incredibly different.

In reality considering all the minor engagements the US military has had and been sitting near their weapons systems, you would think there would be 10x more incidents. It's not about talking up American military, its just massively superior. No need to apologize for that.

The other thing is even if carriers get hit, they're designed to take multiple impacts and keep fighting. The other huge problem in American doctrine is the more damage you do to them, they respond with even more overwhelming force.
I think you're underplaying the threat.

Article:
The combination of wide-area surveillance, close-in target shadowing, and terminal guidance has allowed the Houthis to achieve some impressive feats of marksmanship, such as an apparent near-miss on a U.S. aircraft carrier and a number of hits or very close misses by ASBMs on ships approximately 150-200 kilometers from launch points.

*snip*

By some accounts, an ASBM or other missile arrived at a very shallow trajectory, with minimal warning, without a chance for interception, and splashing down around 200 meters from the Eisenhower. Details gathered from interviews with Yemen-focused U.S. and U.K. intelligence officers for this study. Names of interviewees, and dates and places of interviews withheld at interviewees' request. The Houthis propagandized the carrier's departure. See "America's withdrawal from the Red Sea confirms the fall of the myth of Washington's great power," Sabant – Saba Agency, May 1, 2024


The enemy is learning, and adapting. We are too of course, but it's a case of diminishing returns on our end as our enemies continue to slowly close the gap. Our multi-layered defense systems are remarkable, but not perfect. Iran got 5% of their stuff to break through into Tel Aviv, the most well defended city in the world when it comes to missile defense. That's not inconsequential, and Iran didn't fire everything they have. It's not that I think Iran can win, because even they know they can't win... they still haven't fully replenished all the missiles they used last year even with China circumventing sanctions and delivering raw materials. I just don't think we're as invulnerable as your language suggests.
 
I think you're underplaying the threat.

Article:
The combination of wide-area surveillance, close-in target shadowing, and terminal guidance has allowed the Houthis to achieve some impressive feats of marksmanship, such as an apparent near-miss on a U.S. aircraft carrier and a number of hits or very close misses by ASBMs on ships approximately 150-200 kilometers from launch points.

*snip*

By some accounts, an ASBM or other missile arrived at a very shallow trajectory, with minimal warning, without a chance for interception, and splashing down around 200 meters from the Eisenhower. Details gathered from interviews with Yemen-focused U.S. and U.K. intelligence officers for this study. Names of interviewees, and dates and places of interviews withheld at interviewees' request. The Houthis propagandized the carrier's departure. See "America's withdrawal from the Red Sea confirms the fall of the myth of Washington's great power," Sabant – Saba Agency, May 1, 2024


The enemy is learning, and adapting. We are too of course, but it's a case of diminishing returns on our end as our enemies continue to slowly close the gap. Our multi-layered defense systems are remarkable, but not perfect. Iran got 5% of their stuff to break through into Tel Aviv, the most well defended city in the world when it comes to missile defense. That's not inconsequential, and Iran didn't fire everything they have. It's not that I think Iran can win, because even they know they can't win... they still haven't fully replenished all the missiles they used last year even with China circumventing sanctions and delivering raw materials. I just don't think we're as invulnerable as your language suggests.


Never said anything about US being invulnerable. Nothing is invulnerable. As you said 5% success. That's 5%. The Iron Dome isn't as complex as an aircraft carrier with multiple layers and walls before it even gets to the main wall(carrier). There is no evidence that the missile was even a threat when it splashed either. It could have been debris at that point. This is not hard intelligence and cannot be used.

By some accounts. Such as an apparent near-miss on a U.S.

This language is incredibly shaky and not confident. The fact that we even have to force this as a win is telling. One missile might have gotten close, maybe. lol. If Iran or the Houthis truly believed Western defenses were close to being overcome, they'd escalate and sustain pressure, not rely on intermittent attacks and propaganda. Learning is happening on both sides, but the adaptation gap and strategic ceiling still overwhelmingly favor the US and its allies. More so, the ability to respond is overwhelming.

My point is even in this fluke chance the carrier takes a hit, it doesn't even mean its lost, not even close.
 
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Never said anything about US being invulnerable. Nothing is invulnerable. As you said 5% success. That's 5%. The Iron Dome isn't as complex as an aircraft carrier with multiple layers and walls before it even gets to the main wall(carrier). There is no evidence that the missile was even a threat when it splashed either. It could have been debris at that point. This is not hard intelligence and cannot be used.



This language is incredibly shaky and not confident. The fact that we even have to force this as a win is telling. One missile might have gotten close, maybe. lol. If Iran or the Houthis truly believed Western defenses were close to being overcome, they'd escalate and sustain pressure, not rely on intermittent attacks and propaganda. Learning is happening on both sides, but the adaptation gap and strategic ceiling still overwhelmingly favor the US and its allies. More so, the ability to respond is overwhelming.

My point is even in this fluke chance the carrier takes a hit, it doesn't even mean its lost, not even close.
Um... you do know that the Israeli defense strategy is multi-layered as well, right? You do know that the Iron Dome is used for short range rockets, artillery, and drones right?

Reading your posts, the word "hubris" comes to mind. You mentioned earlier how military planners overestimate the enemy, for which I have no disagreement. Perhaps you should incorporate that style of thinking yourself, because underestimation carries great costs. Frankly, I take the CTC at West Point's analysis a lot more seriously than yours.

FWIW:
Article:
The stunning revelation that part of why US President Donald Trump called off, or at least paused, any American attack on the Iranian regime was a request from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exposes a gaping, relatively new hole in Israel's otherwise stellar multilayer air defense shield.

The IDF sent more than a dozen messages in a matter of days about how it was ready and how strong its air defense capabilities are, only for Netanyahu to privately tell Trump the opposite.

There were likely a variety of reasons that Trump canceled or postponed attacking the Iranian regime, and there were multiple reasons why Netanyahu also pushed him in that direction.

Tehran's ballistic missile capability is now weaker than it's been in decades. Trump had an opportunity to possibly topple Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But then, Netanyahu was so worried about Israel getting hit that he asked Trump to call off an attack.

This picture does not seem to add up, to put it mildly. The answer lies not in technology but in volume.

In shooting down around 800 Iranian ballistic missiles between 2024 and 2025, along with several hundred Yemeni Houthi and Hezbollah ballistic missiles, the IDF has done a phenomenal job.

Also, the air force succeeded in reducing the Islamic Republic's pre-war supply of 2,500 ballistic missiles and over 400 launchers by about half.

But if you think about it, when you add all of that up, it means that even if Iran has much fewer missiles with which to strike Israel, Netanyahu must feel that the IDF has not yet sufficiently replenished its supply of Arrow missile interceptors to confront even that lower volume threat.

One of the reasons Israeli officials are so excited about selling the Arrow to Germany is that it allows producing the interceptor at much larger economies of scale, meaning, over time, more Arrow interceptors can be produced at a quicker rate.

However, it still takes time to replenish a supply of interceptors. Pre-war, this came at an estimated cost of around a few million dollars. During the June 2025 Iran war alone, Israel and the US, according to one estimate, spent $1.48-$1.58 billion on missile interceptor defenses, such that the post-Germany deal boost has likely not yet fully kicked in.

Add in that the US probably had not deployed as many defenses to assist Israel with shooting down aerial threats as it had in the prior three rounds, the prime minister suddenly felt militarily vulnerable, no matter what the IDF had been saying about being ready in public.

And this even though there was a decent chance that Iran might not have hit Israel at all, since the sole attacker would have been Washington.

More in the link. It's of course, more conjecture... as are our perspectives on how all this will play out. But I still have yet to see you make a compelling case to disregard Iran as a genuine threat. The POTUS made a decision to err on the side of caution and didn't do his originally planned strike. Even with a carrier group brought in, I still think Trump will err on the side of caution, and favor a performative strike with a similarly performative retaliation by Iran so that the status quo is maintained. Guess we will see.

Of note, I appreciate the thoughtful back and forth. We obviously don't agree, but it has me triple checking my perspectives.
 
Um... you do know that the Israeli defense strategy is multi-layered as well, right? You do know that the Iron Dome is used for short range rockets, artillery, and drones right?

Reading your posts, the word "hubris" comes to mind. You mentioned earlier how military planners overestimate the enemy, for which I have no disagreement. Perhaps you should incorporate that style of thinking yourself, because underestimation carries great costs. Frankly, I take the CTC at West Point's analysis a lot more seriously than yours.

FWIW:
Article:
The stunning revelation that part of why US President Donald Trump called off, or at least paused, any American attack on the Iranian regime was a request from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exposes a gaping, relatively new hole in Israel's otherwise stellar multilayer air defense shield.

The IDF sent more than a dozen messages in a matter of days about how it was ready and how strong its air defense capabilities are, only for Netanyahu to privately tell Trump the opposite.

There were likely a variety of reasons that Trump canceled or postponed attacking the Iranian regime, and there were multiple reasons why Netanyahu also pushed him in that direction.

Tehran's ballistic missile capability is now weaker than it's been in decades. Trump had an opportunity to possibly topple Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But then, Netanyahu was so worried about Israel getting hit that he asked Trump to call off an attack.

This picture does not seem to add up, to put it mildly. The answer lies not in technology but in volume.

In shooting down around 800 Iranian ballistic missiles between 2024 and 2025, along with several hundred Yemeni Houthi and Hezbollah ballistic missiles, the IDF has done a phenomenal job.

Also, the air force succeeded in reducing the Islamic Republic's pre-war supply of 2,500 ballistic missiles and over 400 launchers by about half.

But if you think about it, when you add all of that up, it means that even if Iran has much fewer missiles with which to strike Israel, Netanyahu must feel that the IDF has not yet sufficiently replenished its supply of Arrow missile interceptors to confront even that lower volume threat.

One of the reasons Israeli officials are so excited about selling the Arrow to Germany is that it allows producing the interceptor at much larger economies of scale, meaning, over time, more Arrow interceptors can be produced at a quicker rate.

However, it still takes time to replenish a supply of interceptors. Pre-war, this came at an estimated cost of around a few million dollars. During the June 2025 Iran war alone, Israel and the US, according to one estimate, spent $1.48-$1.58 billion on missile interceptor defenses, such that the post-Germany deal boost has likely not yet fully kicked in.

Add in that the US probably had not deployed as many defenses to assist Israel with shooting down aerial threats as it had in the prior three rounds, the prime minister suddenly felt militarily vulnerable, no matter what the IDF had been saying about being ready in public.

And this even though there was a decent chance that Iran might not have hit Israel at all, since the sole attacker would have been Washington.

More in the link. It's of course, more conjecture... as are our perspectives on how all this will play out. But I still have yet to see you make a compelling case to disregard Iran as a genuine threat. The POTUS made a decision to err on the side of caution and didn't do his originally planned strike. Even with a carrier group brought in, I still think Trump will err on the side of caution, and favor a performative strike with a similarly performative retaliation by Iran so that the status quo is maintained. Guess we will see.

Of note, I appreciate the thoughtful back and forth. We obviously don't agree, but it has me triple checking my perspectives.


I'm educated on Iron Dome and know its very effective, yet still falls short compared to moving targets with additional layers of defenses. It's just an entirely different situation.

And the reason the missiles don't get through is partly because they overestimate their capabilities knowing they will fall short. But being honest about is fine too. That's what I'm doing.

I'm not digging into that source after the way it reads. It is speculative at best as you said somewhat hinted. Lots or probably and maybe type arguments.
 
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I'm educated on Iron Dome and know its very effective, yet still falls short compared to moving targets with additional layers of defenses. It's just an entirely different situation.

And the reason the missiles don't get through is partly because they overestimate their capabilities knowing they will fall short. But being honest about is fine too. That's what I'm doing.

I'm not digging into that source after the way it reads. It is speculative at best as you said somewhat hinted. Lots or probably and maybe type arguments.
Are you sure you're educated on it? The Iron Dome is not what was taking out Iranian missiles inbound to Tel Aviv. It's just one of several layers of defense, with the Iron Dome focused on short range launches and threats. It was David's Sling (similar to the Patriot system), Arrow-2 missiles (comparable to THAAD), and Arrow-3 missiles (akin to AEGIS) that were doing the lifting on the Israeli side against inbound Iranian cruise and ballistic missiles.

For all your rhetoric, not once have you reinforced your point of view with a link, a reference... anything. I'm genuinely curious and am open to different perspectives. But you sure seem quick to disregard anything I provide, including perspectives from West Point. Not sure why I'm supposed to take your perspective more seriously than Dr. Michael Knights, a man who has dedicated his life to counterterrorism with regard to Iraq, Yemen, and so forth. But yeah.
 
Are you sure you're educated on it? The Iron Dome is not what was taking out Iranian missiles inbound to Tel Aviv. It's just one of several layers of defense, with the Iron Dome focused on short range launches and threats. It was David's Sling (similar to the Patriot system), Arrow-2 missiles (comparable to THAAD), and Arrow-3 missiles (akin to AEGIS) that were doing the lifting on the Israeli side against inbound Iranian cruise and ballistic missiles.

For all your rhetoric, not once have you reinforced your point of view with a link, a reference... anything. I'm genuinely curious and am open to different perspectives. But you sure seem quick to disregard anything I provide, including perspectives from West Point. Not sure why I'm supposed to take your perspective more seriously than Dr. Michael Knights, a man who has dedicated his life to counterterrorism with regard to Iraq, Yemen, and so forth. But yeah.

I'm aware. Even if you take into account the entire system, those are static targets in Israel. Most of the Iranian attacks are designed to "make the through" the curtain, but we can call the entire system dome for conversation like news media does.

Your point about Knight is speculating, not writing a paper with proven facts like some West Point proven battle plan. You called it mostly conjecture, now you're saying I'm trying to argue it. Yeah I am, because its conjecture and speculation. Lots of maybes and apparentlys on the points you're making. Some might be true, but his verbiage doesn't display confidence so its not responsible to take a hard stance.

So not sure what I'm saying needs links? Moving targets are harder to hit than static. Fact. Targets further away are harder to hit than closer ones. Fact. No US carrier has been damaged in 70+ years by enemy missiles. Fact. That's all essentially what I'm saying. Maybe Iran will be the first to do it suddenly after failing miserably in October and firing off alot of their arsenal, losing soldiers and equipment, and their government being in disarray?

Maybe, just like that article stated, but I highly doubt it based on common sense.
 
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Not sure why I'm supposed to take your perspective more seriously than Dr. Michael Knights, a man who has dedicated his life to counterterrorism with regard to Iraq, Yemen, and so forth. But yeah.

Further, Knights is not well positioned to make highly specific assessments of naval air defense effectiveness. He's not former military, or a fleet air defense specialist, has no access to classified sensor or engagement data. In that context, near misses and anecdotal accounts can be overinterpreted as breakthroughs when they may reflect routine non-engagements or weapon failure. His strength is strategic narrative and trend analysis, not technical or operational evaluation of carrier defense systems.

Intelligence fields matter, specializations matter. He's not confident or the in the right type of intelligence field.

To really know, we would need the ship's FCs(NCOs at least) and a TAO(O3 and above usually) from the CIC and access to classified data. I would also like the OS1 on deck. I know what those mean because I worked in a weapons command, deployed to combat zones, and graduated from Naval and Marine Corps intel school and attended a half dozen C schools in the early 2000s.
 
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No one gathers so much fireworks in one place, if there isn't going to be a party.

giphy.gif
 
Those aren't soldiers. They're enlisted criminals.

Here's hoping the boys make a trip over there soon and show them some soldiering.
Considering Hamas has still not been wiped out after years of fighting in a territory 1/4500th the size of Iran I doubt dropping some bombs on buildings will do the trick.
There was a momentum a few weeks ago but by now the regime has mobilized its thugs which will not be conveniently concentrated in military bases.

I'm sure whatever happens it will be presented as a great triumph like Venezuela where a boss got taken out but nothing on the ground changed one bit.
 
Considering Hamas has still not been wiped out after years of fighting in a territory 1/4500th the size of Iran I doubt dropping some bombs on buildings will do the trick.
There was a momentum a few weeks ago but by now the regime has mobilized its thugs which will not be conveniently concentrated in military bases.

I'm sure whatever happens it will be presented as a great triumph like Venezuela where a boss got taken out but nothing on the ground changed one bit.
Hamas hasn't been wiped out because of Israel not wanting to hurt the hostages, plus the world looking with very much higher scrutiny on Israel.

USA just went into a country, took out its leader, and the world is like, "oh Greenland my Greenland".
 
Hamas hasn't been wiped out because of Israel not wanting to hurt the hostages, plus the world looking with very much higher scrutiny on Israel.

USA just went into a country, took out its leader, and the world is like, "oh Greenland my Greenland".
True, except Maduro wasn't a world leader anymore. He lost the previous election, so he was not a president elect, and the people of Venezuela want that distinction known. He was just another criminal, and he was accorded all the respect that a criminal is owed.
 
The US are sending some heavy bois out.


Well essentially if they have to strike it should be an obliteration. I still wonder though what is going to happen next, because nobody wants troops on the ground there. But you might need them.

Considering Hamas has still not been wiped out after years of fighting in a territory 1/4500th the size of Iran I doubt dropping some bombs on buildings will do the trick.
To wipe out Hamas, you need to do what turks do with kurds - basically go into Gaza and perform massacre. They just have to many operatives and as long as people don't rebel against them, the only hope is for Hamas to give up sooner or later. Hard way or soft way.

I'm sure whatever happens it will be presented as a great triumph like Venezuela where a boss got taken out but nothing on the ground changed one bit.
In case of IRGC, something might change but at least Trump is smart in not being ffor "regime change". With Iran, though, they will be changes butt I am not sure how deep they are going to be. Someone will take over for sure - but will IRGC disband, will their elites rename itself etc. etc. We will see.

True, except Maduro wasn't a world leader anymore. He lost the previous election, so he was not a president elect, and the people of Venezuela want that distinction known. He was just another criminal, and he was accorded all the respect that a criminal is owed.
It does not matter if he was a world leader or not. He did not need european recognition to run the country. And "world leader" or not is an irrelevant distinction.
 
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Article:
"As for Iran, everyone is waiting to see what America will do. And the world offers nothing. Europe offers nothing and doesn't want to enter this issue… But when you refuse to help people fighting for freedom, the consequences return and they are always negative. Belarus in 2020 is an example. No one helped their people and now Russian Oreshnik missiles are deployed in Belarus within range of most European capitals. That would not have happened if the Belarusian people had won in 2020," Zelenskyy added, saying he had repeatedly called on European leaders to act against the Belarusian regime.

Tangentially related but I thought it was worth sharing. Zelensky straight up calls out Europe for their collective weakness at Davos. He also brought up the comedy of the EU sending a whopping 40 troops to Greenland as a deterrent against Trump's rhetoric, basically showcasing how unserious the EU appears in the eyes of folks like Putin. He's not wrong.
 
Europe basically sucks ass besides anything other then an Economic alliance and even that barely works now due Eastern Europe, and Russian FSB buttering up elements of Western EU. Militarly it would never work, because EU is too fragmented.
 
Article:
"As for Iran, everyone is waiting to see what America will do. And the world offers nothing. Europe offers nothing and doesn't want to enter this issue… But when you refuse to help people fighting for freedom, the consequences return and they are always negative. Belarus in 2020 is an example. No one helped their people and now Russian Oreshnik missiles are deployed in Belarus within range of most European capitals. That would not have happened if the Belarusian people had won in 2020," Zelenskyy added, saying he had repeatedly called on European leaders to act against the Belarusian regime.

Tangentially related but I thought it was worth sharing. Zelensky straight up calls out Europe for their collective weakness at Davos. He also brought up the comedy of the EU sending a whopping 40 troops to Greenland as a deterrent against Trump's rhetoric, basically showcasing how unserious the EU appears in the eyes of folks like Putin. He's not wrong.

In the case of how the EU dealt with Russia since the fall of the USSR, was a huge mistake. The EU spent the last 3 decades financing Putin's army, even when he would state in public his desire to expand Russian borders.
It was even more egregious when Putin showed his hand during the invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and the EU did almost nothing, besides a few minor sanctions.
But don't forget that the current POTUS is doing very little to help Ukraine, despite the USA 's guaranties to protect Ukraine's sovereignty, 30 years ago.
Worst yet, for several times, he has acted like an allied to Putin. So there is a lot of fingers to point around.

But in the case of Iran, it's well behind the political sphere of influence of the EU. And the EU is already too busy having to deal with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the constant threats from Trump.
The other thing to consider is that, unlike the USA, the EU is not self sufficient in energy, especially oil and natural gas.
This means the EU can't risk intervening in the middle east. The EU already lost access to most of Russian oil and gas. It really can't afford to lose access to Arab oil and gas.
And remember this has already happened, when OPEC reduced oil production in to 1973, to punish the west for helping Israel defend itself.
 
In the case of how the EU dealt with Russia since the fall of the USSR, was a huge mistake. The EU spent the last 3 decades financing Putin's army, even when he would state in public his desire to expand Russian borders.
It was even more egregious when Putin showed his hand during the invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and the EU did almost nothing, besides a few minor sanctions.
Well, you need cheap resources to prop up the economy and the welfare state. The same reason why offshoring is happening - produce cheaply in some other place.

But don't forget that the current POTUS is doing very little to help Ukraine, despite the USA 's guaranties to protect Ukraine's sovereignty, 30 years ago.
Worst yet, for several times, he has acted like an allied to Putin. So there is a lot of fingers to point around.
Russia is not the enemy of USA any longer. Power wise they are not even in the same league and the only reason why Russia was even allowed to hold anything in Venezuela, Iran etc. was because GOP/Democrats were more interested in globalist ideas and managed decline of USA over anything else. They could have kicked Russia from Syria if they wanted to, they could have done the same with Crimea (Turkey shot Russian plane and nothing happened). They could take Russian shadow fleet years ago too.

Times have changed though. It is an enemy of the Europe but Europe would rather deploy troops to Greenland than to Ukraine. Trump wants to wrap up the conflict one way or another. Europe want to prolong it as long as possible and keep USA stuck there as long as possible too. And in the first place when they laughed at him in 2016 about Russian resources, it is pretty fair that he does not care about the conflict. If Europe does not consider it a problem, why should USA? They still buy resources from Russia via third parties and despite China and India propping up Russia still, Europe does not want to do anything towards either China or India either. It is politics.

But in the case of Iran, it's well behind the political sphere of influence of the EU. And the EU is already too busy having to deal with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the constant threats from Trump.
The other thing to consider is that, unlike the USA, the EU is not self sufficient in energy, especially oil and natural gas.
This means the EU can't risk intervening in the middle east. The EU already lost access to most of Russian oil and gas. It really can't afford to lose access to Arab oil and gas.
And remember this has already happened, when OPEC reduced oil production in to 1973, to punish the west for helping Israel defend itself.
To be fair, France and UK has influence in the ME. The OG Ayatollah came from France (he was hiding there). And again you are pointing out that Europe is all hypocrisy. All its state lives on american protection, foreign resources and foreign production.
 
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Well, you need cheap resources to prop up the economy and the welfare state. The same reason why offshoring is happening - produce cheaply in some other place.

Russia is not the enemy of USA any longer. Power wise they are not even in the same league and the only reason why Russia was even allowed to hold anything in Venezuela, Iran etc. was because GOP/Democrats were more interested in globalist ideas and managed decline of USA over anything else. They could have kicked Russia from Syria if they wanted to, they could have done the same with Crimea (Turkey shot Russian plane and nothing happened). They could take Russian shadow fleet years ago too.

Times have changed though. It is an enemy of the Europe but Europe would rather deploy troops to Greenland than to Ukraine. Trump wants to wrap up the conflict one way or another. Europe want to prolong it as long as possible and keep USA stuck there as long as possible too. And in the first place when they laughed at him in 2016 about Russian resources, it is pretty fair that he does not care about the conflict. If Europe does not consider it a problem, why should USA? They still buy resources from Russia via third parties and despite China and India propping up Russia still, Europe does not want to do anything towards either China or India either. It is politics.

To be fair, France and UK has influence in the ME. The OG Ayatollah came from France (he was hiding there). And again you are pointing out that Europe is all hypocrisy. All its state lives on american protection, foreign resources and foreign production.

Your arguments frequently remind me of Russian propaganda. Part of it is the insistence of a globalist conspiracy, which is a recurring theme in Russian propaganda against the West. Or that Russia is not an enemy of the USA, while in Russian media they are constantly denouncing the USA and vowing vengeance.
Do you frequently watch Russia Today or similar channels?
 
Your arguments frequently remind me of Russian propaganda. Part of it is the insistence of a globalist conspiracy, which is a recurring theme in Russian propaganda against the West. Or that Russia is not an enemy of the USA, while in Russian media they are constantly denouncing the USA and vowing vengeance.
Do you frequently watch Russia Today or similar channels?
It does not matter what they are saying in the home consumption because just like North Korea, everybody likes to talk about their fight against capitalism and being a country rivaling USA as a big boogeyman. USA is the only country that matters for most of the world and whether it is Russia, China, ME, SA etc. - USA is the biggest boggeyman there.

The truth is that USA has almost zero trade with Russia, Russia main forces are the threat to Europe but not to USA they don't really have fleet (their paradigm is a soviet one which are subs with missiles mainly) and most of their non-nuke missiles won't be able to reach further than Alaska at best and has to pass Greenland and Canada before even reaching USA.

Just because you don't agree with something it does not make it russian propaganda. If Europe has not treated Russia as an enemy for 20+ years, why should USA who is bigger and stronger than the whole Europe combined and has no dependencies on Russia?🤷‍♂️

There is nothing conspirattorical in a globalist agenda because it is pretty clear and obvious everywhere since the publication of the "End of history" by Francis Fukuyama. Both Europe and USA behave like a global multinational conglomerate, run by a set of bureaucrats who believe that the world should operate the way they see it as a faceless, bureaucratic machine where every country should adhere to the same principles, run using the same ideology and so on.
 
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Your arguments frequently remind me of Russian propaganda. Part of it is the insistence of a globalist conspiracy, which is a recurring theme in Russian propaganda against the West. Or that Russia is not an enemy of the USA, while in Russian media they are constantly denouncing the USA and vowing vengeance.
Do you frequently watch Russia Today or similar channels?
Haha, yeah.

Putin does not have any respect for Trump if anyone thinks so. He even insulted him to his face, which the White House translators refused to translate.
 
In the case of how the EU dealt with Russia since the fall of the USSR, was a huge mistake. The EU spent the last 3 decades financing Putin's army, even when he would state in public his desire to expand Russian borders.
It was even more egregious when Putin showed his hand during the invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and the EU did almost nothing, besides a few minor sanctions.
But don't forget that the current POTUS is doing very little to help Ukraine, despite the USA 's guaranties to protect Ukraine's sovereignty, 30 years ago.
Worst yet, for several times, he has acted like an allied to Putin. So there is a lot of fingers to point around.

But in the case of Iran, it's well behind the political sphere of influence of the EU. And the EU is already too busy having to deal with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the constant threats from Trump.
The other thing to consider is that, unlike the USA, the EU is not self sufficient in energy, especially oil and natural gas.
This means the EU can't risk intervening in the middle east. The EU already lost access to most of Russian oil and gas. It really can't afford to lose access to Arab oil and gas.
And remember this has already happened, when OPEC reduced oil production in to 1973, to punish the west for helping Israel defend itself.
Oh, trust me. I am not even remotely in alignment with how Trump is fucking around on the Ukraine conflict, or the threats regarding Greenland in the first place. Or a whole slew of other subjects that we can't discuss here, as I truly believe he is slowly eroding American soft power. But let's be frank, Europe collectively didn't pull its weight when it came to defense spending as required of NATO membership. Mark Rutte made the highly unpopular statement yesterday that Trump's election was a good thing for Europe, because Europe is finally meeting the bare minimum of 2% GDP expenditure for defense. Had they been doing what they should have been doing the entire time, there would have been more capability to give Ukraine the support they needed in the earlier days of the war when it mattered most. And they'd be in a better position to assert themselves on say, moving troops or assets to protect an ally. Probably would have been able to afford more than sending 40 troops to Greenland.

I understand Europe's love of pacifism given the extensive history of conflict on the continent. I'm a pacifist by nature, despite having served a full 20+ year military career. Most would see this as an oxymoron, but if I were to clarify, I would say I'm a conditional pacifist. I think war should be the last option, but I do not rule it out when the situation is warranted (see: Iran). A bully does not respect weakness, they exploit it. Peace is maintained by a willingness to fight back against unwarranted aggression, and that willingness must be backed by actual strength. The EU collectively doesn't have that strength (yet), and so they have made themselves victims to be exploited. What you're describing to me is the EU being caught in a snare that they slow-walked themselves into. Europe is shifting because they've realized they can't count on the US anymore (a position I think is a huge mistake on the US's part), but not nearly at the pace you'd expect with Russia's intentions clear for all to see. Had they maintained a proper military force and demonstrated a willingness to use it against any aggression, they probably could have continued buying Russian gas in this alternate timeline. Maybe they could have stomped Russia when they attacked Georgia in 2008, and likewise stomped Russian aggression back in 2014 in Ukraine, instead of the current timeline where the EU strongly condemned what happened on their own continent and proceeded to do nothing about it.
 
It does not matter what they are saying in the home consumption because just like North Korea, everybody likes to talk about their fight against capitalism and being a country rivaling USA as a big boogeyman. USA is the only country that matters for most of the world and whether it is Russia, China, ME, SA etc. - USA is the biggest boggeyman there.

The truth is that USA has almost zero trade with Russia, Russia main forces are the threat to Europe but not to USA they don't really have fleet (their paradigm is a soviet one which are subs with missiles mainly) and most of their non-nuke missiles won't be able to reach further than Alaska at best and has to path Greenland and Canada before even reaching USA.

Just because you don't agree with something it does not make it russian propaganda. If Europe has not treated Russia as an enemy for 20+ years, why should USA who is bigger and stronger than the whole Europe combined and has no dependencies on Russia?🤷‍♂️

Russia has the ability to annihilate the USA in mutual assured destruction, by way of a nuclear war. And Russia has never been coy about threatening the USA with nuclear war, even recently.
You might not think that Russia is a threat. But Russia thinks it is and has no qualms about showing it publicly.

You might also think that Russia, in a conventional war is only a threat to European countries. But Alaska is just right next to Russia.
And many Russians state publicly that they want it back, even if they have to take it by force from the USA. This is not even some hidden secret.

That argument you said about globalists and democrats protecting Maduro. Is an obvious nonsense and it is a recurring theme in Russian propaganda, especially when they are trying to portray the decadence of the West and pretend that the EU and the USA are collapsing.
It's very easy to disprove, because the Chavez-Maduro regime has been in power in Venezuela for almost 3 decades, while several Republican and Democrat governments have passed by. Including the first term of Trump.

The USA had a lot of trade with the USA before the invasion, though not as much as with the EU. The reason why it dropped so much is because the Biden administration imposed so many sanctions on Russia.
And Trump, for his part, has kept most of them. And even managed to make it worse by taking Venezuela and seizing a few tankers of the shadow fleet.
 
Oh, trust me. I am not even remotely in alignment with how Trump is fucking around on the Ukraine conflict, or the threats regarding Greenland in the first place. Or a whole slew of other subjects that we can't discuss here, as I truly believe he is slowly eroding American soft power. But let's be frank, Europe collectively didn't pull its weight when it came to defense spending as required of NATO membership. Mark Rutte made the highly unpopular statement yesterday that Trump's election was a good thing for Europe, because Europe is finally meeting the bare minimum of 2% GDP expenditure for defense. Had they been doing what they should have been doing the entire time, there would have been more capability to give Ukraine the support they needed in the earlier days of the war when it mattered most. And they'd be in a better position to assert themselves on say, moving troops or assets to protect an ally. Probably would have been able to afford more than sending 40 troops to Greenland.

I understand Europe's love of pacifism given the extensive history of conflict on the continent. I'm a pacifist by nature, despite having served a full 20+ year military career. Most would see this as an oxymoron, but if I were to clarify, I would say I'm a conditional pacifist. I think war should be the last option, but I do not rule it out when the situation is warranted (see: Iran). A bully does not respect weakness, they exploit it. Peace is maintained by a willingness to fight back against unwarranted aggression, and that willingness must be backed by actual strength. The EU collectively doesn't have that strength (yet), and so they have made themselves victims to be exploited. What you're describing to me is the EU being caught in a snare that they slow-walked themselves into. Europe is shifting because they've realized they can't count on the US anymore (a position I think is a huge mistake on the US's part), but not nearly at the pace you'd expect with Russia's intentions clear for all to see. Had they maintained a proper military force and demonstrated a willingness to use it against any aggression, they probably could have continued buying Russian gas in this alternate timeline. Maybe they could have stomped Russia when they attacked Georgia in 2008, and likewise stomped Russian aggression back in 2014 in Ukraine, instead of the current timeline where the EU strongly condemned what happened on their own continent and proceeded to do nothing about it.

You are correct about the European NATO members not complying with the 2% rule. But there are a few things to consider.
One is that Europe, unlike the USA, had a traumatic event with 2 consecutive World Wars, that killed millions and destroyed the a large part of the continent, twice. So after this, most Europeans civilians gained a very strong aversion to the military.
This is something that a country like the USA never had to deal with, so you can't even begin to understand how traumatic it is for most Europeans having suffered for 2 world wars. Of which, some people still survive today.

The other thing to consider is that after the fall of the USSR, NATO was considered a relic. Almost useless. So complying with such a rule, seemed wasteful.
And of course, the peace dividends were very good to improve living standards in Europe.

You are right that the EU walked right into Putin's trap. That cheap Russian oil and gas were too good of a bait. And now we are paying dearly for it.
 
I guess the attack might happen during the weekend.

On a separate note, considering that they withdrew troops of Iraq, I wonder if Iraqi and Syrian troops will go into Iran. Syria will fall under Turkish control just as predicted.


I doubt just bombings would be enough. Though I still don't see how could the troops on the ground in Iran would look like due to its mountaneous landscape.
 
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Russia has the ability to annihilate the USA in mutual assured destruction, by way of a nuclear war. And Russia has never been coy about threatening the USA with nuclear war, even recently.
You might not think that Russia is a threat. But Russia thinks it is and has no qualms about showing it publicly.
Those threats irrelevant because the guys in Kremlin do not want to die either. Do you really think that Putin and his cronies want to burst into flames upon the retaliation? Hell, most of them do not even want to live in Russia and their children are living in Europe, USA and other countries. They certainly like to sell Russian resources. But not living there. Not to mention the state of the nuclear arsenal is unknown and looking at what has transpired in Ukraine, I would not be surprised that a lot of it is not functional anymore (you need money to maintain and considering the scale of the corruption there...). If regular military is in such a state, what state would the more sophisticated equipment would have?

You might also think that Russia, in a conventional war is only a threat to European countries. But Alaska is just right next to Russia.
And many Russians state publicly that they want it back, even if they have to take it by force from the USA. This is not even some hidden secret.
Alaska is a single region in not particularly human friendly environment. It is an enclave - sure, but just like Kaliningrad it does not mean much if Russia cannot defend it even if it takes over it. Considering the amount of aircraft carriers in the pacific and how the Russia is streched from its control center (there is one really "big" city near Urals mountain which is in the middle of the Russia even) and its fleet being either beside Japan or Kamchatka (somewhere there), together with the fact that there is no bridge between - the danger there is mininal (those area near the Bering Strait are not ship friendly). Would not be surprised if Alaska has more people with guns than any Russian force nearby. In fact having Alaska american is a bigger problem to Russia than Russia being there.

They can talk whatever they want. It does not matter. According to Russia they would have taken Ukraine in 3 days.

That argument you said about globalists and democrats protecting Maduro. Is an obvious nonsense and it is a recurring theme in Russian propaganda, especially when they are trying to portray the decadence of the West and pretend that the EU and the USA are collapsing.
It's very easy to disprove, because the Chavez-Maduro regime has been in power in Venezuela for almost 3 decades, while several Republican and Democrat governments have passed by. Including the first term of Trump.
For globalists the existence of Maduro only matters in a way to demonstrate how "democratic they are" in comparison to Venezuela or to "look good" by writing a condemnation letter. They would never try to solve that specific problem ever. In fact ISIS, various terrorist groups are good for globalists because the concept of the "end of history" implied that the wars between sovereign states has become so constly that nobody would dare to do that again and the way to solve problems would be to have wars on periphery (like Syria) or Armenia against the terrorists, that do not affect the "civilized world". One of the reasons why even Russia had trouble with their military infrastructure as everybody bought into the concept of having "police force against terrorists" rather than a professional army (like Europe does not even have proper infrastructure for a draft as it requires hospitals, logistics etc). The military wing of the global elite would be USA who was one of the remaining countries with a proper army and the ability to project it, while Europe would be responsible for regulations and forcing fines against the companies that "do not follow agenda".

USA has and had a lot of problems at home, but somehow conflicts on the other side of the sea was a bigger priority, despite not having a Soviet Union rival anymore all while getting various adversaries like China entering South America. Because for globalists it did not matter as China was not a true rival. Same as Russia. There was that general agreement that USA would enforce the "law" but nobody acts out of the line. Even annexation of Crimea was "ok" because it was still a periphery, arguable thing and Russia was useful in Syria. But nobody expected Russian invasion of Ukraine as for europeans it was impossible to imagine post "End of History" the idea of sovereign states fighting each other.

That's why so many people are in favor of Islam or even promote it on a democrat side. For the globalists the concept of the universal religion that has devout followers (unlike christianity that is nether here or there at this point), and has that antique idea with "state=God" that was abandoned by christians centures ago was and is an attractive thing. Add to that various restrictions like not eating pork that matches with the desire of animal culling and artitficial meat. Later cows will probably join that oo.

But if you break the concept of the globalism - because it is really a structure, not like "super government" running the world but more like a set of interconnected organizations and groups with shared interests that overlap - into the older concept of the Great Powers, you will realize that the interests of different regional players do not follow the global agenda, but are just common imperial interests that have existed since the ancient era. The tension between Russia and Europe? Existed since forever. The Eastern Europe like Poland being in line with UK (USA/UK now) rather than EU? Has been like this for centuries. Tension between France and Germany? Has been like this for centuries. ME? All the conflicts are basically the same for generations as those countries and tribes were always in conflict before some big empire took over (caliphates, babylon etc). Rinse and repeat. Even in China - though it is bit more complicated due to the geography - the regional tensions are all the same and its politics (expansion throuh trade) has not changed.

The USA had a lot of trade with the USA before the invasion, though not as much as with the EU. The reason why it dropped so much is because the Biden administration imposed so many sanctions on Russia.
And Trump, for his part, has kept most of them. And even managed to make it worse by taking Venezuela and seizing a few tankers of the shadow fleet.
Not really. USA had around 20b trade with Russia. At its peak. 20b....Somali corruption was a bigger deal than the trade with Russia. The reason for low trade is the distance really as Russia sells mainly resources but there is no infrastructure towards USA at all and the northern sea passage is a bit tough for containers and such. EU had around 180b for example. USA/EU trade was around 400b, China/USA was like 600b (I take 2020 numbers). So 20b with Russia was literally nothing.
 
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Those threats irrelevant because the guys in Kremlin do not want to die either. Do you really think that Putin and his cronies want to burst into flames upon the retaliation? Hell, most of them do not even want to live in Russia and their children are living in Europe, USA and other countries. They certainly like to sell Russian resources. But not living there. Not to mention the state of the nuclear arsenal is unknown and looking at what has transpired in Ukraine, I would not be surprised that a lot of it is not functional anymore (you need money to maintain and considering the scale of the corruption there...). If regular military is in such a state, what state would the more sophisticated equipment would have?


Alaska is a single region in not particularly human friendly environment. It is an enclave - sure, but just like Kaliningrad it does not mean much if Russia cannot defend it even if it takes over it. Considering the amount of aircraft carriers in the pacific and how the Russia is streched from its control center (there is one really "big" city near Urals mountain which is in the middle of the Russia even) and its fleet being either beside Japan or Kamchatka (somewhere there), together with the fact that there is no bridge between - the danger there is mininal (those area near the Bering Strait are not ship friendly). Would not be surprised if Alaska has more people with guns than any Russian force nearby. In fact having Alaska american is a bigger problem to Russia than Russia being there.

They can talk whatever they want. It does not matter. According to Russia they would have taken Ukraine in 3 days.

For globalists the existence of Maduro only matters in a way to demonstrate how "democratic they are" in comparison to Venezuela or to "look good" by writing a condemnation letter. They would never try to solve that specific problem ever. In fact ISIS, various terrorist groups are good for globalists because the concept of the "end of history" implied that the wars between sovereign states has become so constly that nobody would dare to do that again and the way to solve problems would be to have wars on periphery (like Syria) or Armenia against the terrorists, that do not affect the "civilized world". One of the reasons why even Russia had trouble with their military infrastructure as everybody bought into the concept of having "police force against terrorists" rather than a professional army (like Europe does not even have proper infrastructure for a draft as it requires hospitals, logistics etc). The military wing of the global elite would be USA who was one of the remaining countries with a proper army and the ability to project it, while Europe would be responsible for regulations and forcing fines against the companies that "do not follow agenda".

USA has and had a lot of problems at home, but somehow conflicts on the other side of the sea was a bigger priority, despite not having a Soviet Union rival anymore all while getting various adversaries like China entering South America. Because for globalists it did not matter as China was not a true rival. Same as Russia. There was that general agreement that USA would enforce the "law" but nobody acts out of the line. Even annexation of Crimea was "ok" because it was still a periphery, arguable thing and Russia was useful in Syria. But nobody expected Russian invasion of Ukraine as for europeans it was impossible to imagine post "End of History" the idea of sovereign states fighting each other.


Not really. USA had around 20b trade with Russia. At its peak. 20b....Somali corruption was a bigger deal than there trade with Russia. The reason for low trade is the distance really as Russia sells mainly resources but there is no infrastructure towards USA at all and the northern sea passage is a bit tough for containers and such. EU had around 180b for example.

The trade between Russia and the USA in 2021, was almost 50Billion US dollars. Not a huge partner in a global scale, but still a large amount of money.

Regardless of whether the Russian government is willing to go trough with it's threats, the reality stands that Russia constantly threatens the USA with nuclear weapons. And with the invasion of Alaska. This is a clear sign of an enemy.

The invasion of Crimea was not OK, even for the USA, as they also implemented sanctions to Russia. But there was little more they could do without starting a war with Russia, which would escalate quickly to a nuclear conflict.

You keep framing the world in a global hidden conspiracy, exactly like Russian propaganda channels.
The same that then tries to pretend Russia is a bastion against these forces, a victim of conspiracy and not a victim of it's own actions.
 
The trade between Russia and the USA in 2021, was almost 50Billion US dollars. Not a huge partner in a global scale, but still a large amount of money.
If we go Census gov we would see this
29b in imports and 6b in exports in 2021 with Russia. On USA scale, those numbers are nothing. For comparison: EU - 670b imports/387b exports. Mexico - 382b/277b in the same 2021.

Considering the amount of corruption, expenses on the military, write offs and so on, those numbers are nothing. In fact OBBB spending on ICE until 2029 amounts to 170b, which translates to roughly 40b a year. More than the trade with Russia even at its peak.

Regardless of whether the Russian government is willing to go trough with it's threats, the reality stands that Russia constantly threatens the USA with nuclear weapons. And with the invasion of Alaska. This is a clear sign of an enemy.
So what? It is all the phantom pain of the soviet era.

You keep framing the world in a global hidden conspiracy, exactly like Russian propaganda channels.
The same that then tries to pretend Russia is a bastion against these forces, a victim of conspiracy and not a victim of it's own actions.
You treat it as a some conspiracy, while it is not a conspiracy like some hidden set of people meeting each other in the shadows to control the world. It is just set of interests that align with each other that way. It is like the fight against nuclear - it is beneficial to organizations and corporations that promote solar energy or other alternative energy if people are against other sources of power. All while China is building all kind of energy infrastructure. Or like Al Gore constantly threatening with Hawaii or Florida or whatever being underwhater to promote his own NGOs. Various NGOs benefits from various things so for example having more illegals brings benefits to some donors. Add to that the cash benefits to churches (who are notoriously involved with immigration support). It is not some kind of a hidden agenda - it is just a set of interests. The same interests that dragged the Iraq War for so many years. Just bureaucrats. But it is easy to dismiss it if you just proclaim that it is a conspiracy.
 
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If we go Census gov we would see this
29b in imports and 6b in exports in 2021 with Russia. On USA scale, those numbers are nothing. For comparison: EU - 670b imports/387b exports. Mexico - 382b/277b in the same 2021.

Considering the amount of corruption, expenses on the military, write offs and so on, those numbers are nothing. In fact OBBB spending on ICE until 2029 amounts to 170b, which translates to roughly 40b a year. More than the trade with Russia even at its peak.


So what? It is all the phantom pain of the soviet era.


You treat it as a some conspiracy, while it is not a conspiracy like some hidden set of people meeting each other in the shadows to control the world. It is just set of interests that align with each other that way. It is like the fight against nuclear - it is beneficial to organizations and corporations that promote solar energy or other alternative energy if people are against other sources of power. All while China is building all kind of energy infrastructure. Or like Al Gore constantly threatening with Hawaii or Florida or whatever being underwhater to promote his own NGOs. Various NGOs benefits from various things so for example having more illegals brings benefits to some donors. Add to that the cash benefits to churches (who are notoriously involved with immigration support). It is not some kind of a hidden agenda - it is just a set of interest. The same interests that dragged the Iraq War for so many years. Just bureaucrats. But it is easy to dismiss it if you just proclaim that it is a conspiracy.

You really are deep into that conspiracy stuff.
 
On a sad note, all that practice making war in Europe was what enabled European countries to outmatch the rest of the world and colonize it for several centuries. Until, the inevitable conclusion of the 2 world wars.
Earth's mightiest warriors, yes. Now when I talk to Western Europeans almost none of them say they'd be willing to defend their country against an existential threat. They would just "go somewhere else."
 
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