The stunning revelation that part of why
US President Donald Trump called off, or at least paused, any American attack on the Iranian regime was a request from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exposes a gaping, relatively new hole in Israel's otherwise stellar multilayer air defense shield.
The IDF sent more than a dozen messages in a matter of days about how it was ready and how strong its air defense capabilities are, only for Netanyahu to privately tell Trump the opposite.
There were likely a variety of reasons that Trump canceled or postponed
attacking the Iranian regime, and there were multiple reasons why Netanyahu also pushed him in that direction.
Tehran's ballistic missile capability is now weaker than it's been in decades. Trump had an opportunity to possibly topple Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei. But then, Netanyahu was so worried about Israel getting hit that he asked Trump to call off an attack.
This picture does not seem to add up, to put it mildly. The answer lies not in technology but in volume.
In shooting down around 800 Iranian ballistic missiles between 2024 and 2025, along with several hundred Yemeni Houthi and
Hezbollah ballistic missiles, the IDF has done a phenomenal job.
Also, the air force succeeded in reducing the Islamic Republic's pre-war supply of 2,500 ballistic missiles and over 400 launchers by about half.
But if you think about it, when you add all of that up, it means that even if Iran has much fewer missiles with which to strike Israel, Netanyahu must feel that the IDF has not yet sufficiently replenished its supply of Arrow missile interceptors to confront even that lower volume threat.
One of the reasons Israeli officials are so excited about selling the Arrow to Germany is that it allows producing the interceptor at much larger economies of scale, meaning, over time, more Arrow interceptors can be produced at a quicker rate.
However, it still takes time to replenish a supply of interceptors. Pre-war, this came at an estimated cost of around a few million dollars. During the June 2025 Iran war alone, Israel and the US, according to one estimate, spent $1.48-$1.58 billion on missile interceptor defenses, such that the post-Germany deal boost has likely not yet fully kicked in.
Add in that the US probably had not deployed as many defenses to assist Israel with shooting down aerial threats as it had in the prior three rounds, the prime minister suddenly felt militarily vulnerable, no matter what the IDF had been saying about being ready in public.
And this even though there was a decent chance that Iran might not have hit Israel at all, since the sole attacker would have been Washington.