As the US-Israel war accelerates and the prospects of state implosion grow, the only option for the Islamic Republic's leaders is to retaliate in ways that exact a similar cost for the Gulf Arab states. Faced by a do-or-die scenario, Tehran will try to choke off the life reservoir of both
Israel and its Gulf neighbors, i.e., oil, gas,
and water. It is
already closing the Strait of Hormuz, has hit
oil facilities in the U.A.E., and has damaged and possibly crippled Qatar's
LNG production.
The U.S. and Israel are racing to destroy Iran's ballistic missiles, but it is very likely that it has many in reserve to deliver the final blow, which is the destruction of desalination plants, without which the Gulf states cannot survive. No water, no state, it is as simple as that. State implosion is a very real possibility in the U.A.E, Qatar, and other Gulf states.
Knowing this, it is very likely that Gulf Arab leaders
will sooner rather than later press Donald Trump to declare victory and end the U.S. assault. As their supplies of anti-ballistic "interceptor" missiles
dwindle, they will have to choose between their own survival and tolerating the near existential costs of a prolonged conflict. Not surprisingly, U.S. military officials insist that the Arab states are not running out of interceptors, but the supply is finite. A catastrophe of epic proportions is a real possibility.