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OK, geopolitical genius, tell me this. How many of the 90+ million people in Iran are actually against the current regime? And where exactly are these people located on the map of Iran?
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Monitoring the situation in Iran
- Thread starter EviLore
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OK, geopolitical genius, tell me this. How many of the 90+ million people in Iran are actually against the current regime? And where exactly are these people located on the map of Iran?
Lukaku's First Touch
Member
I don't see any other way when Trump said he wont negotiate and he wants a full surrender.
Everyone knows that will never happen.
The US pretty much just fucked themselves (and the rest of the worlds economy) for a pedophile and Israel.
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near
Gold Member
Could it not be the case that the Iranian officials are lying to justify striking Gulf states' water infrastructure? I mean, it hasn't even been verified by western media or any other reliable sources that the US struck a desalination plant. So if the only source here is the regime…
ChuckeRearmed
Member
The problem with Iraq was an attempt to imitate the denazification by implementing an incompetent de-Ba'aathification, which was drafted by the same "academics" and "officials" who had no idea what they were doing, trying to imitate what happened to Germany and Japan post WW2, completely ignoring the local politics and balances (arabs are neither japanese nor europeans in that regard).
One thing, though, with the Iraq War was that there was an issue - with some vets complaining - that they were not allowed to go far enough in their attacks, with Pentagon tying one of their hands behind the back.
You don't need to be treated like liberators - neither Japan nor Germany (well maybe only partially in Germany) were treating the american soldiers as liberators.
Central regions are the core anti-IRGC supporters (though they lack military power), while the peripherals have separatist groups that does not support IRGC either (there were many protests before). It goes by ethnic lines really. It is like Assad supporters in Syria - except IRGC is much stronger interlinked with the government apparatus and various industries (well they have 40+ years to achieve that). IRGC by itself does not have that much of support - but they are much better equipped and that's why USA and Israel have been bombing so many launchers, military installations, commanders and such. The goal is ultimately to defang IRGC allowing the protesters - and some other groups - to be able to tackle the remaining forces.
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Sonik
Member
Could it not be the case that the Iranian officials are lying to justify striking Gulf states' water infrastructure? I mean, it hasn't even been verified by western media or any other reliable sources that the US struck a desalination plant. So if the only source here is the regime…
Again, desalinization plants are the lifeblood of the Entire Middle East including Iran's, without them Iran too is finished so there's no chance in hell the Iranians would open those floodgates without some complete moron starting this shit in the first place
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Sonik
Member
Yeap, they're deliberately killing indiscriminately to displace the population and create another West Bank in Lebanon
near
Gold Member
Huh? Iran striking a plant in Bahrain does not affect Iran's water supply. They could destroy multiple plants throughout the Gulf states and be fine, because they have there own water supply system.
Yes it would be devastating to the region, but it's not something I'd put past a terrorist state.
IbizaPocholo
NeoGAFs Kent Brockman
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MisterFalcon
Member
We'll see how it goes then if the WARFIGHTERS are unleashed with no rules of engagement. Maybe some tactical nukes as well as we're in full anything goes territory.
Sonik
Member
Jesus Christ dude, how are you missing the point? If your scenario was true then desalinization plants become a legit target anyway and Iran's will definitely be targeted too which like I said, would be nation ending. You can't just justify every dumb scenario with the "tHeiR A tErRoRist sTaTe" excuse as if the Iranians are primitive morons that don't understand something that simple
IbizaPocholo
NeoGAFs Kent Brockman
Wildebeest
Member
In Germany people were often desperate to surrender to the Americans (and British) because their conditions were getting quite bad, it was clear that the war was lost, and being occupied by the Russians was seen as catastrophically bad in comparison.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Originally I thought that maybe tactical nukes would be used - I did not expect the iranian infrastructure to fall apart that fast though. I do expect some ground forces but no proper ground assault - logistics are not there, no indication of the bigger deployment either. They were planning for 4 weeks assault. I expect 2-3 weeks now, due to how the first week went. Especially due to the fact that they seem to be able to fly even near the Afghanistan border now, meaning that the airspace is clear enough to reach from one end of Iran to another.
near
Gold Member
Well, they are a terrorist state, whether you choose to see them as one or not. It's the same reason they've been targeting oil refineries, airports, and random buildings in Dubai. It's been speculated before the war that this was something that they could do.
Sonik
Member
Interesting how your justification for them being a terrorist state is Iran just responding to attacks to civilian infrastructure from the US and Israel by counterattacking similar targets too. Btw, there's only one country with proven and internationally agreed upon genocide charges and another one supporting them in that genocide and it's definitely not Iran
near
Gold Member
Okay bud. Let me guess, you think Iran is the victim here? That this war started unprovoked? You only see what you want to see.
Windom Earle
Banned
It's almost as if Zion Don and his lackeys are scum with no moral leg to stand on.
Sonik
Member
I think that if Iran is a terrorist state then the nations involved in a genocide that attacked civilian infrastructure first, which like you admitted makes you a terrorist state, are something far more sinister. All this based on your own logic of course
near
Gold Member
What are you talking about? Who is committing a genocide here?
BREAKING
Windom Earle
Banned
Tams
Member
That's a brain dead take.
The defence missiles being used are land-based. The US has very little land-based defence around Taiwan.
Further, munitions have a lifespan. They need to be used or scrapped. This war has also created the demand and impetus for the US MIC to ramp up munitions production beyond even what the war in Ukraine has.
Hoddi
Member
This was in the news two years ago.
Iran elections: Record low turnout in polls as hardliners win
Most reformists were barred from the elections, which saw a turnout of only 41% after boycott calls.
www.bbc.com
near
Gold Member
Right, because the UN Commission is the International Court of Justice. What relevance this has to the topic and conversation I was trying to have with
Sonik
is beyond me. My point was Iran striking a plant in Bahrain doesn't affect Iran's own water supply, because Iran's water infrastructure is separate. And I wouldn't put it past them to target more.
calico
Member
The incredibly high degree of competence and capability on display by the US military, and President Trump demonstrating a willingness to use military force, is likely to deter rather than encourage adversaries to act out. An adversary watching this is likely thinking they would be better off just waiting for a weaker President to come along, like Putin did.
This is one downside of the American system: even with a great President like President Trump, there's a good chance a weak one will be along shortly.
This is one downside of the American system: even with a great President like President Trump, there's a good chance a weak one will be along shortly.
Windom Earle
Banned
You do realize the US supplies interceptors to land based facilities in Taiwan?
But surely random NeoGAF poster knows more than ex CIA political scientist.
MisterFalcon
Member
Ex-CIA, probably fired for being a Kremlin stooge.
Putin has already beaten America in eastern Ukraine - Asia Times
The Kremlin has been very clear about its intentions in Ukraine since Russia initially invaded Crimea in 2014 and annexed it: President Vladimir Putin
asiatimes.com
Ukraine is going to lose - Asia Times
There’s a notion floating around the Internet that the current conflict in Ukraine is going to remain a static war of attrition that will bleed the
asiatimes.com
IbizaPocholo
NeoGAFs Kent Brockman
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Windom Earle
Banned
I don't think a single person expected a different result at the beginning of that war. Also Ukraine is not exactly winning. Try again.
kruis
Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
When the "do it for the gram" overrides opsec. I hope that wasn't one of the expensive ones.
MisterFalcon
Member
But some people did change their stance instead of doubling down on the inevitable victory of Russia. Probably to keep the income from meeting the large demand for semi-legit sources of 'Russia Will Win, The West Is Doomed' articles.
No one is winning but Ukraine has remained an independent state. Like Iran will deny the US a win they now defined as Unconditional Surrender as modern technology has shrunk the gap between superpowers and minor powers. Putin can keep the war going as he's right on the border and his population is servile enough to accept losing a million men. Trump has neither.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
The people hate their oppressive government. This statement is true.
The people hate getting killed by a foreign power. This statement is also true.
These two statements can both be true, but eventually one will become more true than the other and the Iranian people will choose amongst themselves what they hate more, and I can say pretty confidently that having your schools and drinking water bombed doesn't exactly engender feelings of not-hate towards the foreign power.
People might be fine with IRGC and police or military facilities as well as general government buildings being targeted and a certain degree of casualties among the population, because that's often necessary and inevitable during any war, but the escalation towards destroying more civilian infrastructure isn't necessarily being welcomed with open arms. You don't need to make the opposition change sides, which is unlikely to happen except for individual edge cases, yet they might grow depressed, apathetic or even regretful if the regime doesn't surrender and the U.S./Israel continues to escalate as a way to increase pressure.
There's a few early signs of this, now that bombing has intensified in Tehran and other things like desalination plants are being affected, which makes life worse for everyone involved, not just for the acknowledged "bad guys". We can argue said escalation is intended to force the regime into giving up quickly, sure, but what if they don't?
The initial decapitation strikes were very successful, yes, yet it looks like those political / religious figures left alive are being far more careful and even military authority is more decentralized now. It doesn't seem like they're ready to quit, even if they are left ruling over a pile of ruins.
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Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
It's more now.
What has that 6 billion dollars bought us? We're not safer. More American lives are in danger now. Iran isn't safer. More Iranian lives have been eliminated. It's chaos.
MidGenRefresh
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100,000+ troops on the ground. 200,000+ dead. $2.3+ trillion spent. 20 years wasted. That was the cost of Afghanistan, and all the US managed to do was replace the Taliban with the Taliban.
Then there was Iraq, which led to the destabilization of the entire region, the rise of ISIS, and a refugee crisis. Libya, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan. I'm probably forgetting a few.
We're now in week 2 of this newest US/Israel sponsored disaster. I wonder what the cost will be this time.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
demigod
Member
It wouldn't surprise me if Iran self sabotage their own desalination plant so they can blame US.
Unknown Soldier
Member
vodka-bull
Member
Wouldn't surprise me either, after what we saw in Gaza.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Early signs of what? You don't have people talking about going back to IRGC control aka "it was better before". CNN will try their best to prop up IRGC and american media will try its best to portray americans as bad guys though.
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I think there's some questionable reading comprehension in this tweet though. It helps to actually read the whole thing and not just the highlighted bits.
The obituary is written from the dead guy's perspective, or at least the writer attempts to reconstruct how Khamenei himself would think, but there's also some understated yet obvious sarcasm and implicit criticism at various points, such as when the text refers to acts of corruption, violence or repression. It also says "God's dictator falls" right at the top, though admittedly in small print.
It's underlining the contrast between how the dude (presumably) thought of himself as a "man of god" who had unexpectedly risen to power from humble origins yet in practice he was also gaining control over vast wealth, manipulating or bribing his rivals and ordering the killing of thousands. There's clearly a tension there and, no doubt, living such a life requires a degree of hypocrisy.
From Khamenei's point of view, all of that was justified or at least worthwhile because the Islamic Republic's regime would ultimately last forever, beyond the lifetime of Trump or any other western leader. That's the main takeaway of the article and, for all we know, the old bastard believed it right until the moment of his death. We will have to see if the next developments will prove him wrong or not.
Personally, I don't think he was deserving of such a literary approach in the first place. I'd be too morally outraged to write such an obituary, so I can understand the reaction, despite thinking it misses the point.
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BlueAlpaca
Member
There were images of twitter posts mamdani deleted - he posted on two fourth of july anniversaries pictures of a rap group that wrote songs glorifying 9/11, mocking and supporting the terrorist mass murder of american civilians and for some reason nobody cared. I understand that's typical for left/'liberal' even if they pretend it's not but the right didn't talk about it either even though all they do is outrage porn.
Of course they're not saying that, at least not that we know of, but...do you think even anti-regime folks are glad to be breathing toxic smoke right now?
Tehran Shrouded in Toxic Cloud After Israel Strikes Fuel Depots
The strikes appear to be the most significant attack on Iran's civilian infrastructure of the war to date.
time.com
'Night turned into day': Iranians tell of strikes on oil depots
Fuel depots were hit in Tehran and Karaj overnight, with videos showing huge fires and plumes of smoke in multiple locations.
www.bbc.com
You can explain the purpose of these attacks as a sort of economic pressure tactic, which makes sense, yet that doesn't mean we should close our eyes to the other consequences. Especially when the bombing campaign alone isn't guaranteed to produce the desired results.
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