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Monitoring the situation in Iran

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winjer said:
Let's hope this mess is truly over.
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What sucks is that the Iranian people are likely stuck with this regime, who has greatly accelerated the pace and quantity of their executions. I was skeptical, but really was hopeful something could be pulled off to give them a better future.
 
delirium trigger said:
I can imagine how upsetting this must be for all the people rooting for the Iranian regime.
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Same can be true for people wanting destruction of Iranian regime (so the best possible outcome for people of Iran and the world).

It's more or less similar situation to the one before this war, but with a lot of Iranian military destroyed and depleted air defense rockets stock for US.
 
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Meicyn said:
What sucks is that the Iranian people are likely stuck with this regime, who has greatly accelerated the pace and quantity of their executions. I was skeptical, but really was hopeful something could be pulled off to give them a better future.
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This was my fear at the start of this whole ordeal. That the regime would remain "intact" and legitimized through a "deal". Especially if the deal includes sanctions relief.

edit: the devil will be in the details. But knowing they are still in charge doesn't sit well with me.
 
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adamsapple said:
Israel and Lebanon ceasefire and getting ready to talk.

Iran and US are reportedly meeting again in PK (the security is so high that some are speculating that Trump himself might be visiting Pakistan soon).

The strait (looks like) it's about to open to pre-war levels again.

Oil prices are (finally) going down.


Bernie Mac Day GIF
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You seem to be extremely happy with the positive news .

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I was promised the blockade was the worse thing ever on gaf though... at least during European hours 😉.

Glad to see there some normalization but we really need to see what sort of deal or change we see now with the regime.

Even if its not regime change, can trump get them to play nice or are we going straight back to Afghanistan radicalism the second the us leaves
 
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adamsapple said:
And I'm glad you're not getting the wanton civilian bloodshed you wanted. 🙏



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umm, I'm not trying to claim otherwise. I wanted the Iranian regime to get nuked to the stone ages. But these news is the 2nd best thing after that.

No Strait of Hormoz tolls or "never close the Hormuz again"
Most of their leaders killed
US stock market rallying at all time highs
Oil prices crashing down
Most Iranian weapons and capabilities reduces . This war set them back decades militarily and strategically

Yeah Trump won. Iran got nothing.

Just dont pretend you and the other panicans are glad. Its so transparent
 
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Vestal said:
This was my fear at the start of this whole ordeal. That the regime would remain "intact" and legitimized through a "deal". Especially if the deal includes sanctions relief.

edit: the devil will be in the details. But knowing they are still in charge doesn't sit well with me.
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We'll see. I don't see sanctions relief happening at all. Based on the way things are rolling, they'll likely get paid for transfer of the enriched uranium via unfreezing of some assets. The Trump administration won't allow the end of this without some sort of conclusion to the nuclear weapons program, as that was the primary war goal. Anything shy of the removal of the enriched uranium would be a defeat. Regime change was a peripheral outcome. Iran is on the verge of economic collapse, the blockade of their blockade is being memed on but strategically it's akin to starving the enemy barricaded in a castle; the US can wait out Iran far longer than Iran can remain defiant.
 
YCoCg said:
Executions of citizens will resume post haste!
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I guess we'll see how these deals end up going but most likely.

I dont think youll ever rid the region of the extreme ideology...

But if they arent gonna nuke their neighbors then thats a win, even if its not the perfect win
 
StueyDuck said:
I was promised the blockade was the worse thing ever on gaf though... at least during European hours 😉.

Glad to see there some normalization but we really need to see what sort of deal or change we see now with the regime.

Even if its not regime change, can trump get them to play nice or are we going straight back to Afghanistan radicalism the second the us leaves
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I doubt they will ever go as backwards with Islam as Taliban. ME countries have different flavors of Islam, from liberal Turkey to ass backwards barbaric Afghanistan.

And yeah, I doubt Islam is going anywhere sadly. This pedophile cult gets more and more followers by the power of higher birthrates (they don't have to deal with feminists).
 
(Bloomberg) -- A European-led coalition offered military help to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz hours after Iran said it would open the critical waterway, even as US President Donald Trump warned NATO members to keep a distance.

French President Emmanuel Macron hosted the leaders of the UK, Germany and Italy in Paris and reinforced demands for an "immediate and unconditional" opening of Hormuz and "full respect" for maritime law.

More than three dozen other delegates tuned in via video conference, including leaders of Australia, Canada and Indonesia — as well as lower-level representatives from countries including China, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

The French leader organized the meeting as the announcement of the opening was rapidly unfolding in the Middle East, with little detail over how or when a mission would come together or what the circumstances for such an effort would be.
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Look who's showing up to pretend like they did something...
 
delirium trigger said:
Look who's showing up to pretend like they did something...
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And other countries protecting their own ships and clearing mines in the strait... isn't that EXACTLY what Trump wanted to begin with?

It just feels like they are played, yet again - and only thing they may have proved is how tough tongued leader(s) they are against Trump - yet doing exactly the thing Trump asked them to do.

As much as I don't like Trumps childish and often vulgar/idiotic tweets on his #2 breaks (Someone please take the phone away) - I sometimes wonder if he's pulling Jose Murinho style move (during his prime Porto/Chelsea - the special one) of pulling all the attention on himself and his controversial talks to protect his players from the haunting media... (and obvously Trump is on another level of trolling).

Meh, probably just my imagination.
 
Darius87 said:
why do you want so much to drag uk, eu into this mess? neither uk nor nato countries have any obligation to do this.

is america innocent here?

i would say it's smart not to get involved into desperate man mistake.

your country turning into dictatorship state little by little that's not upholding western values, that's destroying it.
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Please instill on me the dictatorship. Not to say that the establishment hasn't done their thing. But this dictatorship should be ruling full swing. Either do your thing or get the fuck out.
 

I wonder if in the end, IRGC will be removed from power one way or another. So the power goes to mullah and president + army, but without IRGC. Though for that they need to kill another set of commanders.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:

I wonder if in the end, IRGC will be removed from power one way or another. So the power goes to mullah and president + army, but without IRGC. Though for that they need to kill another set of commanders.
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That sounds like the Political arm is ok with it. Question is does the religious & military arms agree.
 
ChuckeRearmed said:

I wonder if in the end, IRGC will be removed from power one way or another. So the power goes to mullah and president + army, but without IRGC. Though for that they need to kill another set of commanders.
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Well. Hopefully the regime that has control is making those things. If not, we're back to square one.
 
ChuckeRearmed said:

I wonder if in the end, IRGC will be removed from power one way or another. So the power goes to mullah and president + army, but without IRGC. Though for that they need to kill another set of commanders.
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I don't think the mullah's being in power will be much different than IRGC.
 
ChuckeRearmed said:
Within Iran? Probably. But the expansionist politics of Iran will end. The whole Shia crescent project, nuclear weapons project, missile program and proxy funding were projects of IRGC.
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Seems a little too rosy and good to be true but from what ever I have read and know about mullah rule, it wouldn't be that far removed. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, who knows.
 
Darius87 said:
why do you want so much to drag uk, eu into this mess? neither uk nor nato countries have any obligation to do this.

is america innocent here?

i would say it's smart not to get involved into desperate man mistake.

your country turning into dictatorship state little by little that's not upholding western values, that's destroying it.
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Please explain this whole dictatorship. Without your histrionics. In your own words. We're not perfect, but we wanna know this.
 
adamsapple said:
Seems a little too rosy and good to be true but from what ever I have read and know about mullah rule, it wouldn't be that far removed. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, who knows.
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Well the thing is that IRGC hasn't lost yet and it will fight still. We haven't had a conclusion yet.

Essentially IRGC used to be mullah's praetorian guard. But when Khamenius was killed and his son became vegetable, IRGC decided to rule by themselves. While the conflict is happening the elites within won't question the rule as "everybody is busy". And that's why IRGC does not want war to end - the end will raise the question of their legitimacy.
 
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Bojji said:
Yeah, this should be done. But Russia will probably want to start WW3 over this or something.
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Last month Sweden stopped 2 ships for being false flagged (I believe they are still in custody) and one this month for a oil spill (later released).

After that russian shipping have started avoiding Swedish waters.
 
Unknown Soldier said:
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This is only half true.
Russia had prepared for several decades to build up it's army and to create a safety fund to be able to sustain sanctions. Iran did not.
Russia still has other oil and gas pipelines, that go to other countries besides the EU.
Orban, the friend of Putin and JD Vance, for several years blocked several sanction packages against Russia and aid packages for Ukraine.
The reason why Iran agreed to talks is not just because the straight was blocked.
Russia is much bigger and has more ways to export it's oil, than Iran had.
And Russia got a major financial boon due to this war and the increase in oil and gas prices, at a time when their economy was starting to fold.
 
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The above makes it sound like they're not just going to end the nuclear program altogether but will still (at least public facing-ly) keep it for power generation.
 
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