Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Now THAT is embarrassing.
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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Now THAT is embarrassing.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Eh, this is a SuperPAC, the "Money Bomb" was probably to the candidate's fund. Which is all that should be allowed in the first place
eBay Huckster
Member
Hey PD, even Karl Rove agrees that Obama is going to be tough to beat: http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0202/Polling_News_and_Notes_04_26_12.pdf
Don't know why he ranks AZ as "lean Romney" rather than a tossup if it's a 30-day average, because the only two polls of the state within 30 days of 4/25 were R+2 and O+2. (To say nothing about the veracity of Rasmussen's most recent poll of the state, it was conducted and released well before March 25.)
It's the joke candidate super-bowl.
I'm guessing his model also weights historical voting patterns along with recent polling. I'd put Arizona in Lean GOP myself; I think we've got another cycle or two before it flip. It'll be closer this time around, though.
The Librarian
Banned
Anybody else see Boehner's "blah blah blah" comment making the rounds? Honestly, how is he suppose to be trusted with a deal?
PhoenixDark
Banned
The worse thing is that when the shit undeniably hits the fan, the right's response will be "blame can be spread to both sides, but we shouldn't focus on the past. It's time to address where we go from here." just like with the Iraq war lol
Hey PD, even Karl Rove agrees that Obama is going to be tough to beat: http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0202/Polling_News_and_Notes_04_26_12.pdf
Holy shit at Texas, Arizona, and Georgia on that map.
The Hispanic population boom will be the death of the Republican party.
Hey PD, even Karl Rove agrees that Obama is going to be tough to beat: http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0202/Polling_News_and_Notes_04_26_12.pdf
LOL that is pretty bad if TX and AZ are only lean Romney, in 2 more cycles I would consider them blue but they still have the demographics to stay solid red
That said I got 2 emails in Spanish from Obama's campaign this morning asking me to help get out the vote and mobilize people who are not yet registered. If Obama can mobilize them the map is going to look ridiculous in Iowa, NC, and AZ
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
The two states I identify with are firmly in the Obama camp. I'm happy about that.Hey PD, even Karl Rove agrees that Obama is going to be tough to beat: http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0202/Polling_News_and_Notes_04_26_12.pdf
I'm more surprised by South Carolina being a toss-up damn. And to think how impressed we were at him winning North Carolina in 2008, at that time South Carolina wasn't even showing a glimmer of hope at being won.
Yeah people might end up shocked but only because they ignored the latest census results
KY is another one that might turn competitive if enough Hispanics get registered
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Revenge is so sweet. Screw Tim Thomas.
Romney has incessantly fulminated on Russia; Rubio also noted his incertitude on the "reset." But he's manifestly mistaken. As exemplified by the New START, Obama has fostered a fairly productive relationship with Russia. He secured overflight permission for cargo flights into Afghanistan. Russia has actually participated in counternarcotic operations in Afghanistan. And they recently approved the use of the Ulyanovsk airport as a hub for the withdrawal of ISAF forces from Afghanistan. Further, and I intended to post on this before your post, he's securing Russian cooperation on the contentious issue of cybersecurity. Has Russia acquiesced on every issue? No. But it's disingenuous to expect total convergence. Romney's criticism is as hollow and fallacious as his other critiques of Obama's foreign policy. Or any policy, for that matter.
"I'd wager on it being banal and trite with numerous platitudes interspersed. American exceptionalism is unparalleled. We're the indispensable nation. We need to lead the pack, not follow. I could continue, but we know how stunningly facile it'll prove." I'd say I was accurate. I did not expect an opprobrious partisan attack. Rather, I expected him to affirm his exuberance for American primacy and an aggressive foreign policy; essentially, the banal conventionality of our foreign policy establishment suffused with opposition to multilateralism. The only reason it's garnering adulation is he refrained from the vitriolic, fatuous attacks expected from most Republicans.
Wow, I didn't even notice South Carolina.
Could you imagine how the GOP would react if Obama swept VA, NC, and SC?
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Party Like Its 2008: GOP Goes After Obamas Experience Again
BENJY SARLIN APRIL 26, 2012, 6:12 PM
American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-connected big money group, put out its own homage to the Celebrity ad this week, trying to persuade young voters once again that Obama is a glitzy lightweight.
The RNC, in a similar move, launched an effort to brand Obama as unprepared for office on Thursday. In another throwback to the 2008 election, they used an old clip of Vice President Joe Biden, then a primary rival to Obama, questioning whether he was ready for the White House, and juxtaposed it with a video montage of lousy economic reports. Timing it to coincide with Bidens speech touting the presidents record on foreign policy, the RNCpaired it with an accompanying Twitter campaign using the hashtag #StillNotReady.
Warn voters that a freshman senator is dangerously inexperienced is one thing. Running against an incumbent president with a few military campaigns to his name and Osama bin Laden in the ocean, is another. After all, theres no one running more experienced at being president than the president himself.
Fred Davis, who created the original Celebrity ad, told TPM that he didnt think the same message could work again in 2012.
Obviously, Im flattered that they ran something similar to what we did, but in those days there was no base of knowledge about him, he said. The most amazing thing about him was he became president of the United States with no one knowing about him.
The RNC, however, argues that revisiting the experience angle can work so long as it connects to the current debate over economy, as Thursdays video does.
We and the video are making the point that we were warned in 2008 that he wasnt ready to be president by many people including the vice president and after three and a half years as president they were proven right, Kirsten Kukowski, a communications official for the RNC, told TPM. Because he wasnt ready, the policies hes put in place in his first term have not turned the economy around and are why he shouldnt have another term.
Republican strategist Rick Wilson suggested that the idea of Obama as celebrity candidate could still become a potent source of resentment if the country runs into an unexpected economic or international crisis before the election, making the friendly image of our buddy Barack, slumming in college bars and auto-tuning the news look out of touch. Like the RNC, he stressed the key was connecting the experience argument directly to todays economic situation, not to some hypothetical danger ahead.
If hed been successful in having the public believe the economy is dramatically improved and been able to keep the promises of millions of green jobs, the experience argument would be weak, Wilson said. If the argument is He didnt and doesnt have the experience and judgment to make smart economic choices, why trust him again? its the core question of the campaign.
Much like 2008, how far the GOP goes with the experience angle might come down to Mitt Romneys eventual vice presidential choice. Its a lot easier to sell a dull, former OMB director like Rob Portman as the face of this argument than it is a newer star like Marco Rubio, whos 40 years old and whose stint so far in the Senate is even shorter than Obamas when he was running.
###################
The Karl Rove commercial is link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhXGkeMdOJs&feature=player_embedded
BENJY SARLIN APRIL 26, 2012, 6:12 PM
American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-connected big money group, put out its own homage to the Celebrity ad this week, trying to persuade young voters once again that Obama is a glitzy lightweight.
The RNC, in a similar move, launched an effort to brand Obama as unprepared for office on Thursday. In another throwback to the 2008 election, they used an old clip of Vice President Joe Biden, then a primary rival to Obama, questioning whether he was ready for the White House, and juxtaposed it with a video montage of lousy economic reports. Timing it to coincide with Bidens speech touting the presidents record on foreign policy, the RNCpaired it with an accompanying Twitter campaign using the hashtag #StillNotReady.
Warn voters that a freshman senator is dangerously inexperienced is one thing. Running against an incumbent president with a few military campaigns to his name and Osama bin Laden in the ocean, is another. After all, theres no one running more experienced at being president than the president himself.
Fred Davis, who created the original Celebrity ad, told TPM that he didnt think the same message could work again in 2012.
Obviously, Im flattered that they ran something similar to what we did, but in those days there was no base of knowledge about him, he said. The most amazing thing about him was he became president of the United States with no one knowing about him.
The RNC, however, argues that revisiting the experience angle can work so long as it connects to the current debate over economy, as Thursdays video does.
We and the video are making the point that we were warned in 2008 that he wasnt ready to be president by many people including the vice president and after three and a half years as president they were proven right, Kirsten Kukowski, a communications official for the RNC, told TPM. Because he wasnt ready, the policies hes put in place in his first term have not turned the economy around and are why he shouldnt have another term.
Republican strategist Rick Wilson suggested that the idea of Obama as celebrity candidate could still become a potent source of resentment if the country runs into an unexpected economic or international crisis before the election, making the friendly image of our buddy Barack, slumming in college bars and auto-tuning the news look out of touch. Like the RNC, he stressed the key was connecting the experience argument directly to todays economic situation, not to some hypothetical danger ahead.
If hed been successful in having the public believe the economy is dramatically improved and been able to keep the promises of millions of green jobs, the experience argument would be weak, Wilson said. If the argument is He didnt and doesnt have the experience and judgment to make smart economic choices, why trust him again? its the core question of the campaign.
Much like 2008, how far the GOP goes with the experience angle might come down to Mitt Romneys eventual vice presidential choice. Its a lot easier to sell a dull, former OMB director like Rob Portman as the face of this argument than it is a newer star like Marco Rubio, whos 40 years old and whose stint so far in the Senate is even shorter than Obamas when he was running.
###################
The Karl Rove commercial is link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhXGkeMdOJs&feature=player_embedded
reggieandTFE
Member
There's is nothing this man could do that Relublicans wouldn't spin. He could close every abortion clinic in the country and pro-life groups would fundraise on the issue saying that he violated their first amendment rights by taking away their protest locations.
I like how they point to the student debt issue. Sounds a little familiar, hasn't someone been talking about that lately?
I think they'll be too starstruck to say no to his advances.
Seriously, I am not even sure how this is even supposed to work. The whole crux of that claim was to scare people that he was not ready for the position.
So now that he has been in it for 4 years and the US did not burn to the ground and crash financially how exactly is the experience issue supposed be argued?
Well, it's not like their previously successful claims have anything to do with reality. The media isn't particularly liberal. Republicans are not fiscally responsible. Trickle down economics do not work. Obama is not a socialist, or extremely liberal. etc.
They have a proven track record of saying blatantly untrue things really loud millions of times until it sticks in people's minds. Yeah, it doesn't always work, but when it does it seems to work pretty damn well, unfortunately.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Pathetic
I'm not a fan of Rubio's plan overall, but at least he's coming to the table on the issue, and it is a compromise. It's quite a tame plan, and the fact that it couldn't pass in the house is all you need to know about where the GOP is with Hispanics. Hell, it seems like it would be a good idea for Reid to put this to a vote in the senate, have dems support it, and see what happens; if the Senate passes it, the House will simply reject it. Then Obama and dems can truly argue republicans literally don't want to do anything about this issue.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/04/boehner-to-rubio-dream-on-dude.php?ref=fpblg
I'm not a fan of Rubio's plan overall, but at least he's coming to the table on the issue, and it is a compromise. It's quite a tame plan, and the fact that it couldn't pass in the house is all you need to know about where the GOP is with Hispanics. Hell, it seems like it would be a good idea for Reid to put this to a vote in the senate, have dems support it, and see what happens; if the Senate passes it, the House will simply reject it. Then Obama and dems can truly argue republicans literally don't want to do anything about this issue.
speculawyer
Member
I don't know anything about his mini-dream act but I'd think that Rubio is not the best vessel for such legislation. Every other Latino group gets deported if they arrive here illegally. But if you are Cuban you get welcomed. I bet that disparity kinda irks other Latino nationalities. So getting the hacked-down-mini-dream act from a Cuban might be view as a slap in the face instead of an olive branch.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
CISPA passed the House: Discussion here
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=37323591
Edit: I'll try to post main off-topic posts here when I see them, or make one myself for bigger news.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=37323591
Edit: I'll try to post main off-topic posts here when I see them, or make one myself for bigger news.
Passed the House. Damn near gave me a heart attack.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
apologies, I'll edit my post, hehe.
Rubio's mini-dream is: the people brought over here as kids can get some kind of legal status if they go into the military or go to college, but there's no path to American citizenship.
Thanks. Forgot that was Rubio.
Instead of citizenship, you get a non-immigrant VISA that allows you to finish college.
I'm not sure why would any undocumented come forward to join that program.
Eh, I could see someone being fed up enough to finish education on the up and up, and just take the higher education elsewhere.
(Which is the opposite of the US needs to be supporting right now.)
RustyNails
Member
F1 -> EAD -> H1 -> GC
I don't think an F-1 visa in and by itself make you eligible for adjustment of status (but I wouldn't know for sure, that was not my route).
And anyway, while Rubio didn't specify what type of visa it will be, he was pretty clear that his plan is not a path to citizenship.
p.s.
once you have an EAD, you don't need an H1, go straight to GC, do not collect 200$.
RustyNails
Member
I don't think so. Three ways to file AoS: Family based petition, Employer based petition, or Refugee/Asylum seeker. The first and last are obviously not applicable otherwise they wouldn't have been in illegal status. Only viable path is through employer, and employers only hire non-immigrants if they can sponsor their H1b visa.
That is technically true, but what I meant was the EAD you get for F1-OPT right after college.
In any case, AoS from F1 till GC takes about 9 to 11 years.
Ding we have a winner, Mexicans especially hate being told by Cubans anything on immigration. Cubans have always been the odd man out when it comes to dealing with Hispanics, because of their ardent support for the GOP in in earlier decades they basically view themselves as white when it comes to voting. People like to say that guarantees Florida but polling in 2008-2012 shows the younger Cubans do not share the views of their parents since they have A)always had money and B)view Castro as a non-threat therefore killing the entire National Defense/Screw Cuba mindset the GOP lives by.
The GOP is just digging its grave deeper and deeper, though at least attempting to support Rubio's version would give them some wiggling room to make an argument.
To outright reject it is basically delivering them into the hands of the Democrats. I agree with PD (I know I am as shocked as you are) if I were Reid I would ram home a version of immigration reform knowing the GOP would kill it and it would go nowhere. Put the final nail in the coffin and basically guarantee AZ, TX, and other Southern areas that are turning Hispanic at record pace in 2-3 election cycles.
ErasureAcer
Banned
So with Texas flipping sometime soon, we're never going to see another Republican President ever? At least they went out with a bang with W.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Oh lawd, the Obama investigations begin.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Texas becoming a toss-up state will definitely put them in a spot when it happens. Running a solid campaign in Texas is expensive as it is.
I'd hesitate to be one of those guys to declare the death of the Republican Party, because at some point they'll probably reshape their agenda/platform/image/etc.
I think they'll go for a more populist economic message, while retaining some elements of social conservatism. Oh sure, they'll budge on gay marriage and immigration, but abortion and gun control, probably not. Conservatism has become more about the culture, anyway. Foreign policy will drive more of a wedge in the party than it does now.
This will probably help them win more states in the Midwest/Northeast to counter the losses in the South. The demographic trends in SC, GA, TX, AZ etc. (as well as states like VA and NC that already went for Obama) are troubling for them.
TacticalFox88
Banned
The crazy is going to intensify when they lose, so, yeah, I don't see them shifting their message any time soon with how much their base HATES liberals, Dems, and Obama. Depending on how trends go, I'd argue we won't see another Republican president till...2020 or 2024.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Eventually the Republican party will begin its ascent back to sanity. Eventually. In 2028 I might be able to go into the voting booth and actually feel conflicted over who I want to be president, and I genuinely want that day to come.
That fuckstain Rubio voted against the Violence Against Women Act. Thankfully it passed anyway. All Republican women in the senate voted for it.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
But seriously, isn't that the best-named act of all time? Seriously, name a law that would look worse on your resume to be against. The "I think women, children, puppies, and kittens deserve some minimum level of care" act? C'mon fuckers. You look like idiots.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Remember like three months ago when McCain was like "Yeah, if we keep doing this anti-women stuff we're going to lose the woman vote"
WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT?
Also love how that NY Times graphic says "51 votes needed to pass." hahahahahahahahhahahaweherlkgje;lwarnh
e: In fairness, McCain appears to have voted for it, so he gets a pass on this one. Doesn't stop the GOP from being run by dumb fuckers.
Not really related - with Snowe retiring and Lugar and Brown possibly not being in the Senate come January 2013, I expect John Hoeven (ND) to take the helm as the token RINO-but-still-really-conservative member of the Republican caucus.
RustyNails
Member
Nothing would be more entertaining than obama winning AZ. What a slap in the face to all the crazy racist/borderline racist assholes like arpaio and gov jan brewer. The tea party will explode into a mess. Hopefully it wont give rise to santorum-like ultra conservative movement.
Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
It would split the party, there's no way around it. Probably over half would want to concede something on immigration reform but the rest would be in full Tea Party anarchy mode. I can't imagine how crazy the 2014 midterms will get.
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