I am getting a Pirates 3 vibe from TDKR. Not in terms of quality, but in terms of expectations. Many people expected Pirates 3 to hit $160-175M after seeing Spider-man 3's first weekend. They figured that Pirates 2 broke the first Spider-Man movie's record so this naturally had to become the new record holder. Many a bitter tear when that movie made $140M including the Thursday 10pm showings.
I don't think it is a given that TDKR will massively improve on the opening of TDK.
Without 3D ticket prices and TA looking to smash the OW record TDKR will have a tough battle setting a new record. If any film can do it this year it's going to be TDKR.