Angelus Errare
Banned
Just came back from a Democratic rally with Bill Clinton. So good. Here's my really shitty iphone photo with some adjustments to make facial features even visible.
Gamma radiation Clinton?
PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Gamma radiation Clinton?
I really hope that Obama wins the popular vote as well as the electoral college. If Obama wins decisively (yeah, scarce chance of that) there would be a chance that Republicans would become a bit less intransigent after seeing how obstructionism had failed.
If Romney wins the popular vote while losing the presidency the Republicans will double down on obstruction in a way that will shock us. And why wouldn't they? They will think that the strategy took them within a hairs breadth of victory in 2012 and they'll be so angry that outright obstruction will be the only thing that feels right for them. Absolutely nothing will get done and it will be terrible.
If Romney wins the popular vote while losing the presidency the Republicans will double down on obstruction in a way that will shock us. And why wouldn't they? They will think that the strategy took them within a hairs breadth of victory in 2012 and they'll be so angry that outright obstruction will be the only thing that feels right for them. Absolutely nothing will get done and it will be terrible.
el retorno
Member
Birmingham is one city. And its democratic.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Well it's certainly impacting the Gallup numbers; surprisingly Obama ran somewhat even with McCain in the south, whereas now he's down nearly 30 points. I'm not sure it can be completely ignored because Florida and NC are in the south too, and in Florida for instance Obama's support among white males has plummeted.
I don't know how other national polls weight different regions though
el retorno
Member
Oh shit, that senator is going to be the 51st vote to repeal and replace government run healthcare? Fuck, no one told me we had government run healthcare now! Obama really snuck that one through.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I'm tempted to put some cash on Obama via Intrade but just like when I'm at the supermarket and always choose the wrong checkout line, I feel that by doing so I will singlehandedly be the downfall of Obama and the rise of Romney.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I don't think the Murdock stuff matters at all.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Whichever one they think will get them the most votes? Fuck the long term and party stability. Polls and the knee jerk news channels tell me my constituents are racist bible thumpers!
Who is this guy? Moral Orel?
I'm sure the statement sounds perfectly logical to Mourdock, but he's applying a childlike worldview to one of the most sensitive situations a person kind find herself in.
Black Mamba
Member
Worked well for Akin, eh?
If you're going to do go by betting, go by real sportsbooks lines, fuck that intrade noise.
And if you don't know how to read lines, this is the international sign for "everybody chill the fuck out".
i'm not sure if you've noticed, but obama's at negative 191 points, and romney's at positive 169
If response rates weren't abysmal, pollsters wouldn't be trying so hard to second guess demographic weightings.
The fact there's a ceiling of 10% on response rates and cell phones are often excluded is really frustrating to me. If we had any way of getting something that resembled a simple random sample, I'd be happy as a clam.
To your point, I'm left with the distinct impression that LV models are all screwed up because the response rates are so heavily skewed to passionate politicos and lonely people. It may well be that the disparity in the south is so great that Romney will win the popular vote, but the relative enthusiasm in states that don't matter is certainly going to reduce our ability to gauge much from national trackers.
Bible literalism is hell of a god.
Especially when you take shit that is not even there to begin with literally.
I'm actually thinking they're saving money for an all out media blitz leading up to the election.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
They haven't voted yet. We'll see. I'm terrified to find out tbh.
Officerrob
Banned
OK, I literally laughed at that
Shouldn't that be.... now? The debates are over. There is nothing left to wait for and the election is literally 2 weeks away. If it hasn't happened yet, it's not going to.
Paying his staffers while the Super PACs attack Obama?
Inside track is that Romney is paying way more for ads by buying in house ala carte, on short term, preventing preemption, etc. also, superpacs aren't entitled to the same-air, same-price regulations so they pay much more per spot.
So Romney overall has more money but because of how they're buying time and the heavier reliance on PAC spending, each ad costs them significantly more.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Diablos and Cheebs, FREAK OUT!!!
the new susa had obama +3 in ohio
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Read some of the posts on intrade forums and no one knows what's going on.
Supposedly someone has set up an automated buyer for Romney shares at a certain price point so whenever people buy Obama shares and drive Romney down it swoops in and buys Romney shares again.
Supposedly someone has set up an automated buyer for Romney shares at a certain price point so whenever people buy Obama shares and drive Romney down it swoops in and buys Romney shares again.
re: The south
I believe it, and I see it every day. New Orleans proper is as blue as blue can be, voting more than 80% for Obama in 2008. People are proud of supporting Dems, are antagonistic to the idea of religion in politics, live with 2012 cultural and scientific realities, etc.
But step out into the suburbs, and many of the white folks I know have this self-image fantasy where they're living a rural lifestyle.. even if they toughest terrain their Tahoes and Suburbans see is the speed bumps in front of Academy Sports. Lots of camo, country music, boots, and other rural lifestyle costuming and posing - but no one knows how to field dress a deer or gut a fish.
Going further out into the country, you see more folks whose knowledge and actions match their costuming. But there are still a ton of folks who just live a suburban "drive everywhere to go anywhere" lifestyle; they're just on a longer umbilical cord when it comes to proximity to Wal Mart and their jobs.
So I can see how the South - once you leave the core urban cores - is overwhelmingly Republican. It's part of the lousy, overly fake-rural culture.
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regarding Ohio +3:
Looking at the crosstabs, I don't think that Romney is going to get 22% of the African American vote.
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One more Southern note: good to see that the South's weighting on national numbers is now being demonstrated in several polls. It's ringing more and more true.
I believe it, and I see it every day. New Orleans proper is as blue as blue can be, voting more than 80% for Obama in 2008. People are proud of supporting Dems, are antagonistic to the idea of religion in politics, live with 2012 cultural and scientific realities, etc.
But step out into the suburbs, and many of the white folks I know have this self-image fantasy where they're living a rural lifestyle.. even if they toughest terrain their Tahoes and Suburbans see is the speed bumps in front of Academy Sports. Lots of camo, country music, boots, and other rural lifestyle costuming and posing - but no one knows how to field dress a deer or gut a fish.
Going further out into the country, you see more folks whose knowledge and actions match their costuming. But there are still a ton of folks who just live a suburban "drive everywhere to go anywhere" lifestyle; they're just on a longer umbilical cord when it comes to proximity to Wal Mart and their jobs.
So I can see how the South - once you leave the core urban cores - is overwhelmingly Republican. It's part of the lousy, overly fake-rural culture.
---
regarding Ohio +3:
Looking at the crosstabs, I don't think that Romney is going to get 22% of the African American vote.
---
One more Southern note: good to see that the South's weighting on national numbers is now being demonstrated in several polls. It's ringing more and more true.
It's a reminder of what the party has become.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Is there a link to this poll and why does SUSA mess up with the African American numbers so often. I mean it's always the same pretty much 85-90 Dem.
PistolGrip
sex vacation in Guam
Easy money. I don't have an account!
Not Romney. He's the nice moderate guy I saw in that one debate.
ephemeral garbage
Member
The good news is that the logical extension of his position is that if a woman gets an abortion, God wanted it to happen. So we can finally all just get along!!!
Aaron Strife
Banned
It really depends on which states are included in the South, but someone on DailyKos had this chart:
UT - 06/15 - 06/21 68 26 Romney +42
McCain +28
ID - 10/08 - 10/10 63 27 Romney +36
McCain +25
OK - 07/26 - 08/14 58 29 Romney +29
McCain +31
ND - 10/12 - 10/15 57 32 Romney +25
McCain +9
LA - 10/02 - 10/04 59 36 Romney +23
McCain +19
WV - 09/30 - 10/02 54 33 Romney +21
McCain +13
AR - 09/17 - 09/17 56 35 Romney +21
McCain +20
TX - 09/10 - 09/26 58 39 Romney +19
McCain +12
MO - 10/12 - 10/13 55 41 Romney +14
McCain +0.1
Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana are the only states where Romney's not outpacing McCain by a significant margin.
thezerofire
Banned
The stage was so bright compared to the rest of the place that everyone's faces just washed out. Here's a better picture:
Sirpopopop
Member
Some really rich guy is ginning up Intrade.
Purpose of course is to cause the same panic that you are seeing on these forums here. It's a smart strategy.
Purpose of course is to cause the same panic that you are seeing on these forums here. It's a smart strategy.
EatinOlives
Member
I've been living in what you just described for the past 12 years and it slowly saps my strength...
jamesinclair
Banned
Yes it is, which is why they dont take US credit cards and such.
But at this point, its arbitrage.
I sent in my papers tonight, hope i can do the wire tomorrow and be in business before the pendulum swings back.
Whats good for the goose is good for the gander.
Thats an economic stimulus I can believe in
I'm sorry, I cannot tell if you are being sarcastic.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I love when southerners come up here and bitch about us for having the easy, city-slicker life and high propensity of colored ("ghetto") folk.
Odds are your state was sucking on our teat since Nixon you ungrateful bastards.
Odds are your state was sucking on our teat since Nixon you ungrateful bastards.
This kind of describes Wisconsin, too. Also describes my dad quite a bit. He thinks he's living this country fantasy. He's had an obsession with the south, and has quite a few times repeated the whole "south will rise again" thing. He does the whole country music, boots, some camo thing, too. Some people in my family do the hunting thing, I suppose, by my dad never did.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
How so? Confusion is great if you're on the winning side. Lots of money to be made.
If you're going to do go by betting, go by real sportsbooks lines, fuck that intrade noise.
And if you don't know how to read lines, this is the international sign for "everybody chill the fuck out".
Could you explain the numbers? I don't know how betting works with the - / + I forget.
Rich states paying more than poor states?
OH THE HORROR!
When the number is positive - that's the payout for a 100 bid.
When the number is negative - that's how much you need to bet to win a 100.
soundahfekz
Member
So I want to put some money down on Obama for Intrade. Do I have to wait for the funds to clear, or will they lock you in and allow you to "buy" before the funds clear?
Aaron Strife
Banned
This to add to my diatribe about southerners migrating north to bitch about us. I've known my share of rednecks from Wisconsin as well.
The Morgan Freeman ad was just on the teevee. <3
there was an article about putting on the facade of a real race. do that and you can build a narrative that you're winning everywhere, despite reality. and then maybe the narrative will feed into results.
being in ohio every day until election day might be the best option for him, but it also would look like he actually has no other avenues left than to turn that state.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Ahhh, I'm sure you and your oil prices/election connection will make out like a bandit.
Thanks that's what I figured.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Of course it's not. However I still wouldn't be comfortable with an Obama victory where he loses the popular vote but wins Ohio. I am a strong proponent of doing away with the electoral college and I won't suddenly defend the system just because my guy came out ahead in it.
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