Jesus Christ, if this is true I need to get money in ASAP somehow.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Jesus Christ, if this is true I need to get money in ASAP somehow.
speculawyer
Member
And then . . .
I think you may have answered your own question. Obama is clearly going to win NY, CA, MA, etc. but not by margins like those.
The only problem with this is that my dad didn't migrate north. We have German heritage and have pretty well always lived in Wisconsin.
Oh ok I was thinking that he was saying something like this would affect the actual presidential race. I'm kind of tired.
jamesinclair
Banned
Oil is under 90, its smooth sailing.
National gas prices are down 10 cents in 7 days.
Down 20 cents in California in 7 days.
Obama hit his gas price low button and so theres no going back....
http://www.mercurynews.com/traffic/ci_21838669/california-gas-prices-plunging
......except for this little snag.
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/oct/22/business/la-fi-california-gas-prices-20121022
Remember enron?
Anyone who says these big oil companies cannot and do not influence, nay, control elections is in denial.
One "unscheduled maintenance" is all they need.
Just as Governor Davis
What the hell is this?
I feel like I'm reading the script for Johnny Mnemonic 2 or some crap.
Seriously, hahaha this intrade manipulation stuff is bizarre
I'm going to laugh and dance and rub it in some faces.
Romney and the Republicans knew the rules of the game when this contest began. If they lose, it's because they didn't play the game as well as Obama and the Democrats did.
If these regional margin differentials really do come true on November 6th, I'm also going to take such a victory as the rest of the country telling the South:
"fuck you. You've made enough boneheaded decisions. This time, we're dragging you kicking and screaming into the future.. whether you like it or not."
i don't want it to happen because i'd be concerned for his personal safety. there are already a ton of morons who don't think he's a legitimate president.
Why would you take a bet that pays out less than you paid in?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Right, I'm just hesitant to buy into it because the same thing happened in 2010 and Democrats were still crushed. (Though in the House, they still hold a majority of seats in the other regions, but not like the Republican dominance in the South)
Right, just making a point about how there are plenty of Wisconsinites who do the same thing (move to MN and try to act cool about living in the Who Cares, WI with a graduating class of 26).
Sirpopopop
Member
Half sarcastic. Half truth.
Intrade is susceptible to one person gaming the odds.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...tion-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/
You would also get your money back.
So at -270, betting $270 gets you $370 if you win, nothing if you lose.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ani said it. I'm not in the mood for a civil war
I'm also just not the kind of person who bitches about Gore "losing" but would then turn around and rub it in peoples' faces. The most I could do is tell right-wingers "well if you think Obama's win was illegitimate, you have to admit that Bush was too" and they probably would because the meme about Bush not being a real conservative already started building after the election so who cares.
In short I don't want to be in the position of admitting Obama's win was bullshit - because that is genuinely how I would feel. I feel in this country whoever gets more votes should win the election.
-200 means you have to put down $200 to win $100
+200 means you can win $200 if you put down $100
Also:
-250 = 71% chance
-200 = 66% chance
Because he's favorite.
It's simple odds really.
If something has 90% chance of happening, paying 100% will statistically get you broke.
On average, for every $100 bet, you'll have to pay $180, you're $80 in the hole.
But if you only pay 10% (i.e. 110 pay for a 100 bet) you statistically pay $99 for every $100, that plus the vig, MAKE IT RAIN MOTHERFUCKER!
Edit: or you really just meant to ask if that's on top of your bet.
Yes, it is.
(thanks Tamanon).
PistolGrip
sex vacation in Guam
Problem with intrade is a really big purchase can cause a huge fluctuation for a day or two. Its great for people looking for profits though. Intrade is not an efficient market at all. GAF should do an algorithmic trading scheme and take their money.
Hmm. Nor am I.
Then again, I'm convinced that he'll never be "legitimate" in their eyes. He could win with another 360EVs and they'll just say he cheated.
And just wait until they realize that they're demographically screwed. They already carry this crazy "the White House is ours - how dare you have the gall to challenge us for it!" stance..
Just saw your edit..
again: not bullshit. Both sides knew the terms of the game. If Obama gets to 270, too bad, so sad.
also: I like to differentiate between a "clean split" (1888, maybe this year?) and a "dirty split" (2000, 1876)
(and for all my bravado here, I'm usually not very loud on this. I'm more of the smirk-and-smile knowingly type.)
You definitely have to wait for the funds to clear.
Yep, hedge 50% of what you're putting on intrade with a Romney bet in Vegas and you're golden.
Free money.
Aaron Strife
Banned
You're right that it would be fair within the context of the game - I just don't think that's the game we should be playing.
PistolGrip
sex vacation in Guam
damn now I definitely need to get in on this fck!!!!
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
I'm one of the few fans of the electoral college around here. Wyoming's 1 vote carries a hell of a lot more weight than their 500k population.
Aaron Strife
Banned
To the handful of Democrats living there however, their vote means nothing.
That I can understand.
(although my bitter, Machiavellian side loves that the game is so tilted in Democrats' favor at this point, haha!)
metalslimer
Member
The only reason I would dread an Obama EC victory/pv loss would be his safety. Most of the people in the south are too big of pussies to actually do anything, but there are some legitimately crazy people who see themselves as doing God's work
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
True. But if a president could win with only a few states due to population, I don't think that's entirely a decent alternative.
Look, I believe that the electoral college has it's issues, but I'm also not a fan of the popular vote. I think that there has to be a good middle ground here.
PhoenixDark
Banned
This. I'm not too concerned for his safety considering the Secret Service, but I do think a popular vote loss/EV win could lead to violence. Remember, there are plenty of congressmen and senators who don't have any protection.
No one should be rooting for a repeat of 2000, even if the EV results are more definitive/clear (say, Obama winning by Ohio and Colorado's electoral votes) than Bush's. It would harm the country and people would get hurt. We've seen republicans attempt to tear Obama down for four years, even if doing so hurt the country economically or in terms of general partisanship. They don't give a shit about anything but winning and consolidating power.
I think there will be a large, loud, and very ugly reaction regardless of how Obama wins - whether it be a small victory or large. The right has convinced themselves for years that Obama is the worst president ever, and clearly voters would cast him out. What will they do when there are no longer any electoral means of getting rid of him? I'm going to have some fun watching Fox if Obama wins, and seeing various twitter/facebook meltdowns, but that's as far as I'll go. There are a lot of people on the far right who are well beyond any logical level of reality, and they will not be happy as they watch Fox harp on Gallup polls showing Romney ahead, but Obama still winning.
Secret Service don't play.
Small states already have a hugely outsized importance due to the Senate. Due to the difficulty of distributing 435 Rep seats evenly, they even have an outsized presence in the lower house. I don't like saying this, but fuck'm.
pretty much this. just look at any time obama gets tough and they play the victim card. you would have to look out for the few crazies out there who will go to a place they won't come back from.
el retorno
Member
I like the electoral college.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The idea is that there would be merit in a Democrat visiting a red state and vice-versa if every vote counted the same as anywhere else, regardless of the state.
In the South in particular there are many hugely Democratic cities (New Orleans for example) who might have muted turnout because they can't outvote the rest of the state.
And frankly I can't conceive of a compromise between the EC and popular vote that would actually make sense.
PD in here with Tao levels of wisdom and rationality. Guys the last thing we need right now is any more ammunition (figuratively and literally) for right-wingers to use against Obama's presidency.
It doesn't stop at Obama either, look at Gabby Giffords.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
You want a Parliamentary system.
I do like one thing about the idea of a national popular vote campaign:
as a technique, a smart candidate could decide to visit each state at least once with the theme "YOU COUNT."
It would make for fantastic political spectacle.
Kinda like how I get restartitis with my RPG characters, always tweaking starting stats and skills. Makes sense for my personality, I guess.
as a technique, a smart candidate could decide to visit each state at least once with the theme "YOU COUNT."
It would make for fantastic political spectacle.
I like they gamey-ness of it.
Kinda like how I get restartitis with my RPG characters, always tweaking starting stats and skills. Makes sense for my personality, I guess.
Part of the problem is that the major cities are going to become the main campaign grounds. I mean shoot, if you get out the vote in our top 10 most populous cities how close does that get you to 51%? From there you win some suburbs and you're probably done. Apparently over 3/4 of the countries live in the cities or suburbs, no one is ever going to even think about rural towns ever again if we go to the popular vote. They won't need too.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I was wrong...this time.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obama visited all 57 states
el retorno
Member
and it mean nothing because the populated areas would be the only ones that the candidates visited. There would be no trips to small town america.
He's tanking.
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