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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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apana

Member
This. I'm not too concerned for his safety considering the Secret Service, but I do think a popular vote loss/EV win could lead to violence. Remember, there are plenty of congressmen and senators who don't have any protection.

No one should be rooting for a repeat of 2000, even if the EV results are more definitive/clear (say, Obama winning by Ohio and Colorado's electoral votes) than Bush's. It would harm the country and people would get hurt. We've seen republicans attempt to tear Obama down for four years, even if doing so hurt the country economically or in terms of general partisanship. They don't give a shit about anything but winning and consolidating power.

I think there will be a large, loud, and very ugly reaction regardless of how Obama wins - whether it be a small victory or large. The right has convinced themselves for years that Obama is the worst president ever, and clearly voters would cast him out. What will they do when there are no longer any electoral means of getting rid of him? I'm going to have some fun watching Fox if Obama wins, and seeing various twitter/facebook meltdowns, but that's as far as I'll go. There are a lot of people on the far right who are well beyond any logical level of reality, and they will not be happy as they watch Fox harp on Gallup polls showing Romney ahead, but Obama still winning.

I think this is the effect of internet comments, it makes the nation seem more polarized than it is. There are people on the conservative sites talking about how nuts Democrats are going to go when Obama loses. I think everything will be fine. I am not rooting for just an electoral college victory but it is nice to know that President Obama could get his victory without winning the popular vote. Besides even in scenarios where President Obama wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote he would essentially need to have 50 percent of the votes.
 
What about each state gives out its votes by proportion.

Have 20 votes? Obama win 60% in the state, he gets 12 votes, Romney 8.

I think this could be a fair compromise. Forces candidates to care about all the states, drive up turnout, etc.
 
Interesting that Obama's up more in Virginia than in Colorado, per 538 - of course it's such a small margin (51% in VA, 49.5% in CO) that it doesn't really matter.
 
What about each state gives out its votes by proportion.

Have 20 votes? Obama win 60% in the state, he gets 12 votes, Romney 8.

I think this could be a fair compromise. Forces candidates to care about all the states, drive up turnout, etc.

States can do this. The constitution says nothing on how the states need to distribute their votes in the electoral college. It in fact states nothing about "the people" voting for president. The only people who vote for president are the electors. Everybody else just votes for them.
 
Yuck.

Well I guess the polls will only just start to reflect anything gained off of Monday's debate tomorrow. But if we have to settle for 68.1% going into election day I think those are acceptable odds.

That's a big if. Don't forget tomorrow there is the potential of a Trump card being played. The polls that haven't even come out yet are already too old...damn.
 
I think this is the effect of internet comments, it makes the nation seem more polarized than it is. There are people on the conservative sites talking about how nuts Democrats are going to go when Obama loses. I think everything will be fine. I am not rooting for just an electoral college victory but it is nice to know that President Obama could get his victory without winning the popular vote. Besides even in scenarios where President Obama wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote he would essentially need to have 50 percent of the votes.

It's not just the internet though. These people go to work listening to far right radio, come home and watch Fox News, then get a bunch of chain emails peddling bullshit. It's a constant level of propaganda and insanity. They literally believe Obama has 0% chance of winning; if he wins, he stole it.

Given the rapid rise of right wing militias and hate groups it wouldn't be surprising for them to only get more desperate and violent. Remember that huge ass bomb that was planted near a MLK parade? It didn't go off, but the message was quite clear
 
That's a big if. Don't forget tomorrow there is the potential of a Trump card being played. The polls that haven't even come out yet are already too old...damn.
Lol. Trump tells everyone that the Obamas had a rough patch and suddenly the election swings to Romney. Yeah okay.
 
Part of the problem is that the major cities are going to become the main campaign grounds. I mean shoot, if you get out the vote in our top 10 most populous cities how close does that get you to 51%? From there you win some suburbs and you're probably done. Apparently over 3/4 of the countries live in the cities or suburbs, no one is ever going to even think about rural towns ever again if we go to the popular vote. They won't need too.

How is that a problem?

More people, more representation.

What we need is to give the top ten states a bonus senator too.
 

AniHawk

Member
Interesting that Obama's up more in Virginia than in Colorado, per 538 - of course it's such a small margin (51% in VA, 49.5% in CO) that it doesn't really matter.

obama needs to be up more in virginia. not that he can bank on it, but colorado early voting started this week, so he can build something of a lead before election day. virginia all comes down to election day, so he needs some underlying support going into november 6.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Virgil Goode is pretty high up on twitter right now. Nice to see.

(and I'm loving this non-panicky conversation tonight. Nice to see everyone not stooling their trousers this evening)
 

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
The idea is that there would be merit in a Democrat visiting a red state and vice-versa if every vote counted the same as anywhere else, regardless of the state.

In the South in particular there are many hugely Democratic cities (New Orleans for example) who might have muted turnout because they can't outvote the rest of the state.

And frankly I can't conceive of a compromise between the EC and popular vote that would actually make sense.

The idea is that regardless of population that the entire country can be represented.

Hypothetically speaking, what if Texas became a huge breeding ground for republicans and that state alone could win a presidential election just based on popular vote. Would you be ok with that?

That's the entire idea behind the electoral college.
 

Cloudy

Banned
What about each state gives out its votes by proportion.

Have 20 votes? Obama win 60% in the state, he gets 12 votes, Romney 8.

I think this could be a fair compromise. Forces candidates to care about all the states, drive up turnout, etc.

That makes too much sense. It's the Presidency of the USA not freakin' Ohio!
 
Interesting that Obama's up more in Virginia than in Colorado, per 538 - of course it's such a small margin (51% in VA, 49.5% in CO) that it doesn't really matter.

colorado is gone, but virginia hangs on.

panicelebrate?

I know this isn't exactly how it works but winning one of those and losing the other is something I would take at this point (obviously would prefer it to be Virginia).
 
The idea is that regardless of population that the entire country can be represented.

Hypothetically speaking, what if Texas became a huge breeding ground for republicans and that state alone could win a presidential election just based on popular vote. Would you be ok with that?

That's the entire idea behind the electoral college.
If that's how the majority of the country votes, sure. And it's not like the Democrats in Texas wouldn't still be voting either, and unlike under the EC, their votes would count.

I already see the Senate as a solution to states being represented.

obama needs to be up more in virginia. not that he can bank on it, but colorado early voting started this week, so he can build something of a lead before election day. virginia all comes down to election day, so he needs some underlying support going into november 6.
Yeah but nate's forecast is a prediction of who will win once all the votes are tallied. It's interesting to me that he has Virginia higher, if only slightly, than Colorado.
 

HylianTom

Banned
If a state is tied, I still tend to give the edge to Obama just on sheer force of his ground game. Swing states' numbers are going to look more like Registered Voter polling instead of Likely Voter polling.
 
If a state is tied, I still tend to give the edge to Obama just on sheer force of his ground game. Swing states' numbers are going to look more like Registered Voter polling instead of Likely Voter polling.
Still not something I'd like to count on. I'd rather we pad margins.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Still not something I'd like to count on. I'd rather we pad margins.

Absolutely. If we see a definite one- or two-point bump in swing state polling over the next thirteen days (something that could be difficult to confirm, true), those atoms in my already-icy veins are going to stop moving altogether.
 

Trurl

Banned
It would be fine if everyone's vote got equal representation. But the fact that a vote in Wyoming is so much more important than a vote in California is bullshit. Take away 2 electoral votes from every state and we'd be fine.

That's a good point. We could also start adding seats to the House of Representatives again which would allow the reformed Electoral College to reflect population even better.

But really, the Electoral College creates a needless space between the a person's vote and the election of the President. This has little effect on me, but I think it promotes cynicism for people less steeped in the political culture. Doing away with the Electoral College would make the horse race less interesting, but that seems like a small price to pay.

Also, I don't buy that rural areas would be completely ignored. THe parties have become extremely good at approaching 50-50 splits and rural America would be a tempting target if your opponent is ignoring it entirely. And in any case, small states would still have the entire structure of Congress to work in their favor.
 

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
If that's how the majority of the country votes, sure. And it's not like the Democrats in Texas wouldn't still be voting either, and unlike under the EC, their votes would count.

I already see the Senate as a solution to states being represented..

That's 1/3 of our entire federal political system. Should congress be weighed the same in that situation? The majority of our congressional reps be from Texas?
 
That's 1/3 of our entire federal political system. Should congress be weighed the same in that situation? The majority of our congressional reps be from Texas?
No because like the Senate, the House is representative of the states.

The president however is (theoretically) representative of every citizen of America. Yet every four years they jockey to be the president of ohio

However it would indeed be interesting if Congressional districts were split without regards to state lines.
 

Bowdz

Member
Virgil Goode is pretty high up on twitter right now. Nice to see.

(and I'm loving this non-panicky conversation tonight. Nice to see everyone not stooling their trousers this evening)

I have no trousers left to stool. I actually need to wash my trousers so I can continually stool them until November 6.
 

HylianTom

Banned
If they were to do a fifty-state tour, I'd also love to hear all of the hokey, fake accent adjustments the candidates could contort their vocal cords into having.

Also:
TrumpsAnnouncement.jpg

http://www.inquisitr.com/372576/tru...t-is-not-being-taken-too-seriously-by-anyone/
 
No because like the Senate, the House is representative of the states.

The president however is (theoretically) representative of every citizen of America. Yet every four years they jockey to be the president of ohio

However it would indeed be interesting if Congressional districts were split without regards to state lines.
The house is not representative of the states. Its the people's house.

Which is more accurate, the NowCast or the Nov.6th?

The now-cast really means nothing. Its just what the election would look like if it where held today. But its not, its on nov. 6. I'd stick with that.
 

RDreamer

Member
If they were to do a fifty-state tour, I'd also love to hear all of the hokey, fake accent adjustments the candidates could contort their vocal cords into having.

I'd like to see just how far Mitt would have to contort himself if he had to pander to every state.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
GAF...slow down...breathe.

700+ posts in one day!! We are going to need another thread before the election!

I'd like to see just how far Mitt would have to contort himself if he had to pander to every state.

As if Obama would be any better. Every politician truly makes themselves look the worst and most pandering on the campaign stump in faraway American lands.
 

Gotchaye

Member
That's 1/3 of our entire federal political system. Should congress be weighed the same in that situation? The majority of our congressional reps be from Texas?

To be clear, you're saying you'd want a large majority of the country to have relatively little power in the federal government just because that large majority happens to reside in just one state?

I've never really gotten this. States aren't magic. We want protection for minority interests, so it makes sense to want a sufficiently large minority to have some sort of veto power. But the Senate and the courts already put checks on what a majority can do.
 

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
No because like the Senate, the House is representative of the states.

The president however is (theoretically) representative of every citizen of America. Yet every four years they jockey to be the president of ohio

However it would indeed be interesting if Congressional districts were split without regards to state lines.

So in theory the president is supposed to represent every citizen of America but theoretically they could win without ever paying attention to certain states if they knew they could win by only having the majority of other states vote for him/her.

Could it be assumed that these states would receive preferential treatment because of that fact?

Edit:
As I said, every state should agree to give out their votes via proportion of vote.
I like this idea.
 
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