PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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when do independents become a bit more meaningless? We know the R affiliation dropped and the I affiliation increased with the rise of the tea party, so why exactly are we so concerned over republican voters?
 
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Good news for Obama.
 
Bowdz said:
My dream night right there. If Obama got reelected, I don't think there could be a better message sent to the GOP that their policies and obstructionism in the Senate is unacceptable if Dems actually pick up seats (and also prime them for 2014 pick ups).
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2014 looks rough but word on the street is Lindsey Graham (SC) and Saxby Chambliss (GA) are the next big tea party targets. McConnell could be vulnerable if the Kentucky Democrats figure out how to convert their state victories into federal victories, and who knows, maybe Susan Collins will retire and give Democrats another gimmie.

I also think it might be worth looking into Texas if they can like, get Julian Castro to run. Though if I were a Democrat hoping to win statewide I think I'd rather run for governor.

So there are opportunities.
 
The volume of battleground state polling was light on Tuesday, and what polls there were require a few cautions. For instance, an Old Dominion University poll of Virginia put Mr. Obama seven points ahead there – but the poll had an extremely long field period, having been started in September, with about two-thirds of its interviews coming before the first presidential debate in Denver. It thus receives little weight in the forecast.
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Why release this poll now?


Also, Silver has RAND wrong. RAND moved up for Obama.


edit: I see now this is all yesterday's polls.
 
Stupid question time, how often do they change the electoral college votes based on population? And will it favour Democrats in the future?
 
Salvadora said:
Stupid question time, how often do they change the electoral college votes based on population? And will it favour Democrats in the future?
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Every ten years, with the census.

It depends really. This last cycle, blue states in 08 lost 6 electoral votes. That's bad for Obama (haha, no literally) - if the EV count stayed the same, he would just need his safe states and Ohio to carry him across, which was Kerry's strategy. Now he needs Ohio and another swing state that's not New Hampshire (which would only get him to 269, a tie).

However some of the states that gained (like Texas) could be blue in the future.
 
ezrarh said:
I was able to wire money into my account the day after I submitted the wire request by transferring it through my Scottrade brokerage account. So if you have something similar it might work faster.
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Yeah I was surprised. I wired the money at 8AM (actually I don't think the wiring went through until much later) and it was deposited into my account at 3PM. I have a great bank.
Cloudy said:
Anyone who didn't jump on the Obama crash on Intrade yesterday might have missed out
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Don't say that :( There's still hope! Everytime I say "I don't see how Obama can possibly go down anymore" his stock always crashes. I'm going to hold on to my new money until Obama either goes back down or hits $6. I swear if some asshole crashes the market again after I buy a billion shares at $6...
Clevinger said:
It sounds like Scorcho passed away.
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Neogaf lost another of our own :( He will be missed
Forever said:
I would feel really confident about Ohio if not for Jon fucking Husted.
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Yuck. If Husted can figure out a way to get away with it, I'm pretty sure he can completely negate Obama's ground game making the race a coin flip.
Brinbe said:
He wants to appear moderate and above petty attacks

There are no absolutes in politics, but the demographics are certainly in their favor. And Hilary, if she's a go, is probably a prohibitive fav to win.
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Even if Obama left office with very low approval ratings, Hillary would still win if she ran.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Every ten years, with the census.

It depends really. This last cycle, blue states in 08 lost 6 electoral votes. However some of the states that gained (like Texas) could be blue in the future.
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Arizona also gained which will probably go blue unless the GOP changes on immigration. Didn't Virginia gain too?
 
Aaron Strife said:
2014 looks rough but word on the street is Lindsey Graham (SC) and Saxby Chambliss (GA) are the next big tea party targets. McConnell could be vulnerable if the Kentucky Democrats figure out how to convert their state victories into federal victories, and who knows, maybe Susan Collins will retire and give Democrats another gimmie.

I also think it might be worth looking into Texas if they can like, get Julian Castro to run. Though if I were a Democrat hoping to win statewide I think I'd rather run for governor.

So there are opportunities.
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Hearing a rumor Sirpopopop might run in SC.

Just a rumor though.

QUICK - DELETE EVERY POST MADE ON GAF.
 
Bowdz said:
My dream night right there. If Obama got reelected, I don't think there could be a better message sent to the GOP that their policies and obstructionism in the Senate is unacceptable if Dems actually pick up seats (and also prime them for 2014 pick ups).
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It might send a message, but its a token reward as long as the GOP still has the house. I really, really hope we either take the house or get very close to it just to really stick it to the GOP. Even if they are in the position to obstruct with just a slim margin the leadership might have a little more wiggle room to keep the tea party from overwhelming the voting process like that did after the 2010 election. More DEMs in the house basically forces the GOP leadership to either stonewall all legislation or somehow become a true partisan hive mind (and lets face it, the tea party representatives have not fallen in line that often even if its in the parties best interest), since I doubt the later and think it would be suicide to do the former, they would need to court some DEM votes if they hope to have 'any' legislation pass the house.
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
These national polls are annoying me. State polls matter more, and although I'm not following this election closely, I do know Obama is up in Ohio.
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By 3, and I'm not entirely sure I trust these "likely voters" formulations. I imagine people who hate Obama tend to respond very vigorously.

As for national polling, I agree. The national poll thing is meaningless not only because we don't have a popular vote system, but because if we did, the "likely voter" rate in say, California, would be entirely different and skew the results a different way.
 
Aaron Strife said:
At the risk of dooming the Democrats' chances, I'm feeling good.

Democrats could very well hold every Senate seat except for Nebraska while picking up Maine (big King lead), Mass (decent Warren lead), Nevada (tied race in polls + likely understating Dem margin = Reid-style victory), Indiana (Mourdock's big mouth isn't doing him any favors) and Arizona (Carmona showing surprising strength in the polls). This adds up to 57 seats.

motherofgod.gif
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In a year when the Democrats are defending so many more seats than the GOP, I'm almost tempted to say that this could point to a wave election of some sort.
 
I listened to Rush Limbaugh yesterday and he literally equated Benghazi to Watergate. What is there to even cover up?
 
Angry Grimace said:
I listened to Rush Limbaugh yesterday and he literally equated Benghazi to Watergate. What is there to even cover up?
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14 days man, 14 days.

I also love the current attack on the Libya tragedy that the white house didn't say it was a terrorist attack because a terrorist group on facebook took credit for it, even though the next day that group refuted the claim.

But i want to see Obama make conferences about facebook pages :( Imagine him doing so the day after the attack and then immediately the next day coming out again saying " nevermind guys, they updated their facebook page again"
 
Among political independents, 49 percent say Romney is the one who is more empathetic with ongoing economic woes; 45 percent say Obama is more in tune.
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For fuck's sake...
 
Byakuya769 said:
Are you guys hearing murmurs that Benghazi may be a bigger cover up than Watergate!?! Give me my flashing sirens!
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This whole thing from the very first moment Romney spoke about it has been a pretty pathetic attempt to make an albtross to hang around Obama. Fast and Furious first, now this.
 
I'm still just confused on what they are trying to make the story. I mean, random terrorist groups take credit for anything bad that happens somewhere, and more often than not it wasn't them.

I'm just baffled that after Iraq the GOP still think it's a good idea to jump to conclusions.
 
What's hilarious to me is that this smoking gun email just corroborates what was known a long time ago. A radical group took credit, and radical groups claimed the video was the animus. Oh god, why didn't he say it was terrorism!?! Fucking clowns.
 
Oblivion said:
For fuck's sake...
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Political Independent usually just means Republicans that are either too extreme for the party or don't follow the GOP social agenda (which can usually be spotted by the incorrect self-identification as Libertarian). Honestly, most undecideds are just people don't give a shit either way.
 
Disastrous News for the GOP as Obama Leads Romney in Three New Ohio Polls

Three new polls of the critical swing state of Ohio all agree. Barack Obama is currently leading Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State.

Obama leads Romney in the Time poll 49%-44%. Time’s polling also revealed that there are two races going on in Ohio right now. Among voters who haven’t voted yet the candidates at tied 45%-45%, but President Obama is dominating Romney with early voters 60%-30%. Obama is leading with women 56%-37%, while Romney is leading with men, 51%-42%. Romney is leading with white voters (49-43), while Obama is leading big with young voters and minorities. Romney’s negative message about the economy isn’t working in Ohio, as 54% of those surveyed believed the country is on the wrong track, but 51% also believe that their state is on the right track.

Obama leads Romney 47%-44% in the SurveyUSA poll. Much like the Time poll, Romney leads with men (49%-42%), while Obama holds a double digit lead with women (52%-40%). Obama leads by nine points (49%-40%) with voters age 18-49, and Romney holds a small three point lead (49%-46%) with those over age 50. Romney leads Obama by just 5 points with white voters (49%-44), and the president leads 70%-22% with African-Americans.

A Lake Research poll has Obama leading 46%-44% in Ohio. The poll found that Romney is struggling with men in the state. The Republican leads Obama with men by just a four point margin, 47%-43%. Obama leads Romney with women 49%-41%. Romney’s biggest problem in the state is that more Ohio voters have a negative view (49%) than have a positive view (47%) of him. In contrast, 52% have a favorable view of Obama and 44% have an unfavorable view of the president.

Even Republican pollster Rasmussen has Romney tied with Obama (48%-48%). Rasmussen polls contain a 4 point Republican bias, so when the extra four points are factored in, even the Republican poll is in line with the other three. In total, four new polls of the state of Ohio were released today, and Mitt Romney is leading none of them.
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http://www.politicususa.com/ohio-polls-obama-romney.html

Part of me hopes that the GOP base doesn't see stuff like this, instead living in their own little bubble until November 6th..
 
Jarmel said:
Wow that's all over the place.
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Its really not - almost all polls, including the "battle ground" states are within the margin of error.

In fact, the funny part on a lot of these graphs people post appear to be huge changes are literally 1-2% points. Would I prefer to be Obama on these polls that have him up 1 to 2% ? Absolutely, but IMO with all the variables out there I wouldn't bet say, $5000 on the outcome on a 1-2% difference. Other people seem to be pretty comfortable with it though.
 
GashPrex said:
Its really not - almost all polls, including the "battle ground" states are within the margin of error.

In fact, the funny part on a lot of these graphs people post appear to be huge changes are literally 1-2% points. Would I prefer to be Obama on these polls that have him up 1 to 2% ? Absolutely, but IMO with all the variables out there I wouldn't bet say, $5000 on the outcome on a 1-2% difference. Other people seem to be pretty comfortable with it though.
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Up 2.5% with a 2% MoE means about 90% odds to win the state.

"within the margin of error" doesn't mean want many people think it means. It simply means that 95% of the time the results will fall within that confidence interval. But that isn't the same as likelihood of wiining.

This is why a 2% lead is significant. A consistently polled 2% lead means you're close to 9:1 odds to win the state because even though a Romney lead may be in the MoE, it's barely in there and is in the small range where it happens.

That said, Ohio and Nevada is barely within the margin of error. It's creeping to 95%.
 
GashPrex said:
Its really not - almost all polls, including the "battle ground" states are within the margin of error.

In fact, the funny part on a lot of these graphs people post appear to be huge changes are literally 1-2% points. Would I prefer to be Obama on these polls that have him up 1 to 2% ? Absolutely, but IMO with all the variables out there I wouldn't bet say, $5000 on the outcome on a 1-2% difference. Other people seem to be pretty comfortable with it though.
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it's the average in poll aggregate sites like polltracker/tpm, 538, and rcp that matter. when all three of them show their averages pretty damn close to each other, and not having moved much over the last week or so, that it looks like it's a pretty solid lead.
 
Mercury Fred said:
The plane touched down just before sunset. Mozambique. Hillary descended the metal steps onto the makeshift tarmac and breathed in the florid, humid air.

Glad to be away again, she thought. No Bill, no Chelsea, just me. Right then her Blackberry vibrated. She looked at the screen to see who was calling. M.

Hillary gazed over the horizon to see the blazing hot orange glow of the sun begin to sneak behind a thatchwork of palm trees and answered the phone.

"Michelle. Now this is a surprise. Thought you'd be making an appearance on the View about now."

She blurted it out without thinking, but her secret wish was, more than anything, that Michelle would-- no, don't say it, don't even let yourself think it...

"Hillary, do you think you could spare an evening... to talk?"

"Madame First Lady, I'm afraid I'm in Africa right now."

"Mozambique. I know. I heard. I'm here too. I-- I took a safari. To clear my head."

"Well that's an interesting choice. I hope you find some... big game. But I won't be able to join you, my schedule is quite full--"

"Hillary, I... I need you. I mean I need to see you." Her voice was raspy, breathless.

The Secretary of State took off her sunglasses and squinted at what was left of the sun.

"There's a speakeasy on Ilha de Moçambique. Be there at midnight tomorrow. I'll text you the address."

What am I doing, she thought? She shook away the doubt and closed her eyes as her lips parted slightly, turning up into the faintest suggestion of a smile.

to be continued...
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ClovingWestbrook said:
'It began prior to the second debate when Obama -feeling the pressure like never before- was unable to sleep. His phone vibrated and upon picking it up he saw it was Hillary. Trying to not awaken his lovely wife Michelle from her precious sleep, he took the phone into the Oval Office.

'Hello Hillary, how did you know I was still awake?'
'Mr.President, I know the pressures that a man in your position has, for I saw it in Bill for those 8 difficult years. I just wanted to let you know that I am available for you in any way I can be.'
'Hillary, that means the world to me. Michelle, she simply doesn't appreciate the weight that I carry upon my shoulders day in and day out. It's comforting to know that I have you by my side. I am just sitting here in the Oval Office trying to prepare for tomorrows debate. I have to say that I am quite nervous.'
'Mr.President, I fully understand. I have a confession to make... I...'
'Hillary? Are you ok?'
'Yes Mr.President, I am... I just am thinking of what my husband did in the very room that you are currently in... and I don't know...'
'Hillary, I am not sure I understand...'
'Mr.President, I have always been jealous of Ms.Lewinsky, that she was able to make my husband feel a way that I wasn't able to produce...'
'Hillary, I am not sure that we should be having this conversation... for I am a married man...'
'Mr.President, I want to be your Ms.Lewinsky, if only for one night...'
'Hillary...'

To be continued
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Bad news for Obama, fanfics have gone up 35 percent during his term.
 
romney just isn't going to get over the hump in Ohio. This clearly demonstrates that there just isn't enough undecided voters out there to dramatically change anything this close to the election.
 
AniHawk said:
it's the average in poll aggregate sites like polltracker/tpm, 538, and rcp that matter. when all three of them show their averages pretty damn close to each other, and not having moved much over the last week or so, that it looks like it's a pretty solid lead.
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I've read Nate Silver's piece on this exact problem and his statement on aggregate polling:

"But because there have been only about eight presidential elections in which there has been a rich amount of state-by-state polling data, any approach will inherently be speculative to some degree."

doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in the process to me. I am not saying its completely useless, but I don't have enough confidence in the mathematics being applied and data to say "if we combine these 8 polls, regardless of their flawed methodologies (biases, error, sample, outliers etc..) that when we weight them and come out with a number, this will negate the inherent error issues with these polls"
 
speculawyer said:
The cover up is that Obama helped kill off Reagan's nemesis Ghadaffi (and Bin Laden) and they just cannot stand it. So they want to hide that large strategic victory by nit-picking on a tactical tragedy.
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They are so incredibly desperate to run against Jimmy Carter again. Sad, really.
 
Aaron Strife said:
At the risk of dooming the Democrats' chances, I'm feeling good.

Democrats could very well hold every Senate seat except for Nebraska while picking up Maine (big King lead), Mass (decent Warren lead), Nevada (tied race in polls + likely understating Dem margin = Reid-style victory), Indiana (Mourdock's big mouth isn't doing him any favors) and Arizona (Carmona showing surprising strength in the polls). This adds up to 57 seats.

motherofgod.gif
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Keep an eye on North Dakota Senate race. Heidi Heitkamp is really giving Rick Berg a run for his money. It should be close and Heidi might have a shot.
 
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